IT and TN both improving I should think,I doubt AF is.

So nothing wins then Shock

Well no Faugheen says that mate,but at least we now have a race to get stuck into.
Two at the head of the market are well worth taking on,get the winner you have a nice price imo.

The one thing I don't get is everyone saying that NC would of liked the heavy going and identity thief wouldn't,  imo the form says the complete oposite. Identity thief has ran poorly twice with good in the description and NC bolted up at aintree and punchestown which imo are his best performances to date, beating the likes of Sempre medici and identity thief twice who seem to have improved since. Also arctic fire is only in his second season in open graded company so I can't see why he couldn't improve for the better ground at the festival seen as he ran so well there last year and at aintree before falling both on decent ground. Hes ran in deep ground all this year and put up some fair performances,
Nicholls canyon will have a much better chance without faugheen in the race being able to run his own fractions rather than having to try and serve it up to faugheen, no horse can live with faugheen trying to take him on.
And arctic fire can be switched off and allowed to cruise round and  has an insane turn of foot imo on gd to soft. If AF is within 5 lengths of whatever is infront at the last there is no way the leader will be extending that lead.

I cannot have AP: she's fragile; not run in Champion Hurdle (CH) company before; the price is far too short and an unorthodox prep to say the least.

As for Peace and Co, he's only for the brave; he's only just beat Top Notch (TN) when he was 'behaving' and not pulled too hard. Even if he does 'behave' in the CH has he trained on to beat TN let alone the other seasoned campaigners?

Surprisingly someone is willing to have Faugheen at 499/509/519 to 1 for £2/2/5 respectively!

shes gonna be the buzz horse once confirmed for the race and with her "sexy" form figures and some media hype  she will shorten up nicely I will also be looking to lay her !

Surely AP will only run if Walsh is on board. Otherwise pointless entering as Walsh/Mullins are saying it has less chance than his mount !!!!

Might be wrong but that's how I see it.

shocker

Ya, I tend to agree about Ruby being onboard.

Stupid price? You can say it again! I'd take Min, any time and any day, over AP in their respective races ie Supreme and Champion Hirdle.

Had AP run against Hurricane Fly, then at least more would be known of her than just her potential (current).

A 'big' chance... really?

Well ive just watched last years race and the selection picks itself in my eyes...currently trading at 6 on the exchange....even money the place too...its only got 1 to beat and thats if it shows up....and yes im prepared to eat humble pie but i dont think i will be.

His jumping not the best admittingly and i know he fell at Aintree when he would have won imo but he was the only one to give faugheen a race last year, finished in front of jezki and hurricane fly too.....if hes level with anything at the last, nothing is going to go up the hill as fast as him....he just needs to sit handier i reckon.

Im a complete Peace & Co fan boy but I'm really starting to make a case for him in this years champion hurdle with Faugheen is out. I can't get the way he travelled and battled up the hill in last years Triumph our my head. I know the Triumph form can be crabbed and torn apart. But I would say that the form of the second and third is more than respectable - Second in a fighting fifth and a half length third to The New One in the Christmas. But the form of the Triumph isn't what makes me fancy him.

The International was a complete farce of a race IMO. There was no pace, Peace & Co didn't settle as a result,  Jacob was forced to go on and just set it up for the rest of them. The form isn't being franked to a particularly high level imo, Old Guard had his pants pulled down in the Christmas by Faugheen, The New One and a horse who finished behind it in the International (Hargam). Sempre Medici has made a hard work of beating 141 and 127 rated horses. Melodic Rendevouz and Cheltenian have since been well beaten in handicaps. Personally, I have just put a line through this race completely.

Following the international, in the Contenders P&C settled so much better because Rayvin Black made sure they went a good gallop. The issue was he didn't find anything of the bridle and just folded tamely. Something a wind op could easily fix. I'm adamant this horse is reliant on a good strong gallop, where he can settle and come from off the pace like he did in the Triumph.

They are sure to go a good clip in the Champion which will only help him settle. Also worth noting that now probably Faugheen is out, the field will be probably be bigger which again will help him settle.  Hypothetically, if P&C's only run this season had been in the Contenders and he had traveled well, not found like he did and subsequently had a wind op. I think people would be a lot more willing to give this horse a chance in the most wide open champion hurdle in years. For me personally I don't think P&C settling is an issue in the Champion with the pace they will go and it more than likely be a double digit runner field. Its more of a, has the wind op worked? If it has, then the 20/1 available is well over priced, to me atleast

I agree Tom, however ive never been a fan of Triumph hurdle form..id be suprised if hes in the first 6...but everyone has their opinions and thats what makes cheltenham so great...good luck to you all.

You would have to forgive a lot agreed lol..but a genuine champion hurdle winner should beat rayvin black on 1 lung i reckon

Yeah look I get all of what your saying and was well prepared for some flack on it! Like Shockster said above, in such a wide open race there are so many different views to take on it. I was just looking at the market trying to find a way in for some value, and at 20/1 NRNB i thought theres a lot worse bets you potentially have. Whether you take its form line at face value or not is completely up to you. I personally believe that every horse in the betting has a question mark next to its name and a question(s) which need answering. In my opinion, a wind op is far more likely to answer that question mark than something that hasn't seen a racecourse in 2 years. Its all a game of opinions and I'm not expecting this horse to be a champion hurdler. I just think that if its worked, it will probably outrun 20/1

I made a case for him on here in November for the World Hurdle and backed it for that so I'm probably not the man to ask! Cant crab its spring & festival form and being second to Faugheen last year probably makes him the one to beat. Interesting to see how he is ridden anyhow. You?

Can't allow that dissing of one of my favourite horses in training Cheltenian go unchallenged, Jb23! Top weight in both those handicaps and ran a massive race in the first one, with a pretty decent effort in the Betfair Hurdle which would've come quick enough after the Cheltenham handicap - I don't think Old Guard's effort in the Christmas Hurdle was a true reflection of his ability either, came too soon after the International for him - yep, Hargam ran in both races too - but he had n't put in a big effort to win the Greatwood prior to that.

Speaking of Hargam, he'd be my idea of the one most likely to make an impact in the Champion Hurdle of the principles from last season's Triumph, his form is fundamentally progressive and although it does n't fully support the oft peddled theory that he'll be more effective on better ground, his pedigree does.

My concern revolves around whether he'll be allowed to run on his own merits as opposed to as the junior member of the JPM team. as the

Chief- No worries mate, didn't think you were anyway. I've got TNO too, just looking for something that would be shorter should he turn up. 3 weeks!!!!! I need an advent calendar

I was P&Cs biggest fan last year and felt he had the potential to be a superstar.
But he has gone to bits this year and I wouldn't be holding out too much hope that the wind op will make a difference - Hendo said that they couldn't be sure he needed one but thought that they would give it a go anyway! Smacks of desperation and the truth is they can't get him fit at home. His condition was poor the last day and the stable didn't fancy him, even at odds on. I still think he could be a top notcher and at 5yo you wouldn't give up on the horse, but a change of surroundings might be in order.

Back to the race, on form AF seems the most likely winner and I like the case made for NC wrt all the G1s he's won - maybe he is the class horse in the race. I've a bit on MTOY but without a prep run it's hard to see him winning. But, at the prices, I'm coming round to liking camping ground, his run at new year was excellent and you need stamina to win a CH, but he's not a 3 miler as proved the next day. I can see him going off in front and if the ground is on the soft side, they may not catch him. That'll be my play on the day, but if it's good ground I'll probably stick with MTOY.

Would definitely be the strangest prep for a Champion Hurdle winner Foyles.  Handicap chase > Imperial Cup > Peterborough Chase > Relkeel Hurdle > Cleeve > Champion Hurdle.  That would have the stats blokes tearing their hair out

Re the ratings, I wouldn't take them too literally.  His big rating was achieved over 2m4f; if you look at his 2m rating, it was 152; significantly lower than a few of them.  Imo, ratings are only useful as a guide if acheived over a similar distance as the race they are going for.