Cheltenham Festival
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RSA CHASE
RSA CHASE
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Jlt Shaneshill kv/abre de vie outlander rsa black hercules poss kilultagh vic arbre de vies/ outlander
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Can't see Pont Alex running in RSA now and won't stay 4 miles in a horsebox on that evidence. Black Hercules looked good today but not so good that More Of That fans will be worried. I guess the most significant thing is that K.Vic must now be odds on to go to the RSA after being smashed up for the JLT all week. I just love Roi Des Francs and would like to see him go RSA for financial reasons. Surely he's too good for the 4 miler? And giggystud have Rule The World for that anyway, yeah?
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I'm on kv 10s any race and 23.0 rsa. Black hercules rsa 34-42.0 outlander 55.0 rsa. Outlander 32.0 jlt. Shaneshill 8s any race 17.5 jlt. And abre de vie 88.0 Rsa and 44.0 jlt. more of that rsa 18.0
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Forgive me scooby for some reason i thought NMH was a mullins horse
 I was going to say he and possibly Outlander  |
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Nope,4 miler for RDF after that I would think.
Really don't know what to think re KVic's race. He would be a big player in either race I reckon . |
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scoob? Aren't you on Roi Des Francs at a massive price for the RSA?
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No. I seen it at 220.0 left it alone
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K Vic wouldn't stay well enough to win an RSA. Yes he beat Thistlecrack over 3m but he was treading water after the last, with Thistlecrack gaining with every yard having been one of the first off the bridle.
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I also backed alvisio ville at 25/1 jlt But......
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K vic, jumped the last poorly. And thistle crack is a very dour stayer. Take thistle crack out, he'd have been eased down to win.
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Paddies standout on 4 miler double price of everyone else. And shortest at 9/1 for black hercules RSA
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Think that is largely because Shaneshill who was third was even a worse stayer on the day.
In an RSA, where they'll go a good clip, I think he'd struggle to get home personally. I think it takes a certain type of battle hardened one to win the RSA, and I think KV is too speedy and classy for that. |
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And your completely disregarding the horses behind shaneshill. Imo that's there true running over hurdles
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Just so you know, I'm not saying kv will go rsa. I'm financially sound if he goes for either. But just don't disregard him completely from other races would be my suggestion.
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I've said on various threads for years that I take end of season Punchestown and Aintree form with a pinch of salt. Use them maybe as a general guide, but in terms of the RSA, that form with NMH, RDF is meaningless.
We've seen strong strong stayers out in the RSA this year. If KV wasn't going to run in the JLT, it'd be the Arkle for me rather than the RSA. |
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Agree with you 100% chief.
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fantastic.
"I don't think that was his true running at Cheltenham last year. He'll go with a good chance and I'm sure Ruby (Walsh) will be taking him back off me. He was very good today - just what you wanted to see." |
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Starting to look like
Arkle - Douvan JLT - Shaneshill & Killultagh Vic RSA - Black Hercules With Arbre de Vie still having the potential to put himself in the frame. |
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well opposing Black Hercules was an exercise in futility, impressed with his jumping particularly, think he'd be wasted in the 4 miler personally.
Not see the RdF/PA race so can't comment on that. |
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scooby91 16 Jan 16 14:55 Joined: 17 Aug 15 | Topic/replies: 327 | Blogger: scooby91's blog
fantastic. "I don't think that was his true running at Cheltenham last year. He'll go with a good chance and I'm sure Ruby (Walsh) will be taking him back off me. He was very good today - just what you wanted to see." I missed that scooby who said that about what horse? |
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Remember that the 4 miler has just had a 15% increase in prize money to £100k, only the bumper saw a bigger % increase.
The quality of the race is getting better every year. |
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I think the last thing graham wylie or willie would be thinking about is 15,000. they turned down the 1000,000 with Djakadam and vautour.
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WPM doesn't have any horse that would be competitive in this years RSA so i would be very surprised if he ran one in it.
Killultagh Vic could make into a RSA contender but looks to be campaigned towards the JLT. Back Hercules to the NH for young Paddy to ride. |
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Sts that was about black hercules form danny mullins. And we all know ruby can't ride jn the 4 miler
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Can't wait until March, alot of people clutching at straws in regards to targets. I prefer to listen to willie and ruby over heat someone says on the final fulong podcast.
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It's not clutching at straws. What a jockey says 5 mins after the finish a race is a world a way from the final decision.
The prize money reference was relating to the race becoming more prestigious, and not a poor man's RSA that it used to be. Mullins will want Danny on a good one in the 4 miler. I'd rather win that than finish third in the RSA. The odds back this up as he's much shorter in the 4 miler betting. A lot can happen yet, still 2 and a half months away. |
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Think people are clutching at straws, if scooby has a nice antepost ticket for another race
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Good luck. I think he's going rsa and I'm fine putting my money where my mouth is. That's where willie said, patrick said was likely and Danny mullins inplied. If he goes 4 miler which I think will not happen. Fair play to anyone who got him at big odds or for any race.
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I said clutching at straws because nobody connected to the yard has implied he's going for the 4 miler or even likely to do so. Everyone has said rsa and patrick said he'd love to ride him in the 4 miler. If people take that as he's Patricks ride jn the 4 miler then good luck to them.
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To be honest would not be surprised should he turn up in either race.
Maybe some time before we know for sure. For me he would have a better chance of winning the 4 miler as the front 2 in the RSA look very good,but if you were looking at todays race for a guide I think you would say either race would suit him. Could be a tough decision for connections. |
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Rsa an open race imo. One the horses iv backed is mot he was visually impressive but he's bet nothing and hasn't tackled 3 miles over fences yet. NMH I haven't backed And he looks very good, I personally think that he hasn't come across anything that would be placed in an rsa yet, will be interesting to see how abre de vie takes to fences next week, on form possibly more likely to go jlt, but with pont dissapointing today, there's plenty of room to get in the mix.
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I was really impressed with Black Hercules jumping today, it was very good indeed and can't think of another novice who has jumped so well. To me though that is where his performance is devalued as strange as it sounds.
IMO he was all out to beat Definitely Red who jumped with a lot less fluency. A top 3 mile novice I believe will out pace him at the business end. His jumping will of course help a lot, but I cannot believe he will have the speed on decent ground around Cheltenham for the RSA. His Albert Bartlett run gives him quite a lot to find as well. 4 miler all day long for me, but not sure he'll stay that well enough. |
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Funnily enough to Well Shockster, you need a speedier horse (based on pedigree dosages etc anyway) to win the 4 Miler than you do the RSA.
The logic behind it is that due to the 4 Miler being an amateurs race, they don't go 'Championship pace' throughout and are more inclined to play it safe. It can then turn into a bit of a dash for home. As its over 4m you obviously need to stay really well as well. I don't have a clue where Black Hercules will end up - if you've backed for either the RSA or the NH then you have an anxious few months waiting to find out. |
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BH to me looked like an rsa horse. Okay so there looks to be a couple ahead in the market, but the horse has adequate room for improvement to be in the mix. Mullins/gig already have Roi for the 4 miler anyhow.
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BH in the 4 miler for me as it looks he gallops and stays much further than 24f as I believe he could be done for toe in the RSA by NMH and possibly MOT.
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.... forgot to add that those talking about prize money ought to know that if roi won the 4 miler for talks sake, then you'd be comparing placed rsa cash to 2nd in the 4 miler cash. Vice versa if BH won 4m and roi was 2nd...for talks sake.
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... 2nd in 4m versus place cash in rsa for BH that is..
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He's not entered in the GC any more Tory.
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Sorry story, think it went to another page in the thread where you said you thought they should target the GC, but that must have been really old!
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no more heroes 9/4 with bfred best price 3/1 happy with my 7.s
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