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No More Heroes - any worries about decent goodish ground being the most likely terrain at Chelt in March ? I know he is by a sire Presenting whose stock like decent ground as a general rule but all his good form is on soft ground and while there may have been excuses for his few less proficient performances on better ground, personally he would not appeal at his present price with this little niggle at the back of my mind
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on a t 7 here happy with that
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Elliott confirms that NMH is to get an entry in the Gold Cup. With the two Dons and Road to Riches entered its extremely doubtful he won't run. He says it's just incase some of the big guns don't make it.
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Willie Mullins has entered Pont Alex, Black Hercules amd Roi Des Francs in the Hampton Novice Chase at Warwick on Saturday. Interesting to see which (if any) he takes there.
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I'm on Pont Alexander for this
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Hampton Novice Chase looks potentially interesting - would be even more so if Hobbs team had n't entered Onenightinvienna in the previous race by mistake!
Bitofapuzzle and Definitely Red look the pick of the home team - I've not given up on Ballyalton either and stable seem to have found a bit of form recently but would think he'd want better ground, step up in trip makes me wonder if they're plotting him for one of the handicaps (probably getting way ahead of myself!) |
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Seeyouatmidnight and Definitly Red set to clash at Donny at the end of the month.
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CCM
How come you've changed your mind since this a couple of days back, have you heard something? Can't Catch Me 08 Jan 16 20:54 Why do you feel so sure he will go for that race Duffy? Considering WPM has Shaneshill, who looks a very worthy fav, and only Pont Alexandre, who has plenty of question marks, potentially going for the RSA? I reckon Killultagh will be their first pick RSA horse for Ruby to ride. duffy 08 Jan 16 21:03 They started him over 2 and he's got an entry in the Irish Arkle. don't think he'll run in it but it just perhaps shows their thinking. He's going to have one more run before the festival so where is the 2.4/3 mile run too....I hope he does go RSA as I've backed him for that one and not the JLT yet...but am seriously tempted now. I love him and would have him 1st choice for either race. |
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wrong thread
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NMH is shortening up on here. Now under 3/1 to back and lay. Confidence growing with this one.
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Good news for More of That backers.
He no longer has an entry in the Gold Cup, so looks like its all systems go for this race now. |
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Would've thought with MOT guaranteed to run in RSA his price would come in but it's stayed pretty much the same. Everyone saying he'd be fac for this race he'd end up fab! Don't think so going by market activity!
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Yes surprised he hasnt shortened on the back of this news as well.
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MOT has not been entered for the Gold Cup (now) but there is a supplementary on 17th March, leaving either the RSA or the JLT then (unlikely I do understand but not out of the question, ref: Vautour)?
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JP told Jonjo to get back in his box.
![]() Can't wait to see MOT over 3 miles. He's the real thing. imo. |
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With Vautour it was Arkle/JLT. But with UDS showing how good he was and Vautour being a bit disappointing the decision was easy to go for JLT. With MOT there is no such circumstances bar wanting to avoid NMH that would make connections avoid the RSA and aim for the JLT.
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More Of That backers .... would you prefer to see him with a prep run over 3m before the festival or happy with another prep run over the shorter distance and stepped up to 3m on the day just as they did with him prior to his World Hurdle win?
Even though he would have needed his comeback run and couldn't do anything more than win in his most recent win, I'm always wary of horses who have had wind ops. Yes he's 2/2 since but yet to be tested for stamina or against RSA class opposition. He's proven he stays 3 miles over hurdles pre wind op but is it a concern to backers? Connections obviously don't seem to think so given their chat about entering him in the GC, but he's still got to show he can do it over fences. Maybe me just being too petty, infact I know I am. For the record I've backed nothing in the race, if anything I would have had a bet on Killultagh Vic but it seems he may be JLT bound. Just interested to see others opinions. |
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Re-MOT: Jonjo stated horse has stamina and pace; JLT if MOT chooses to avoid NMH, and then both will do battle in the Gold Cup 2016.
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100% want to see them prep him over further. The Reynoldstown over 3m would be perfect.
"With MOT there is no such circumstances bar wanting to avoid NMH" You're kidding right? |
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I'm just trying to find a reason why they would rather go for the JLT over the RSA and that is the only (if unlikely) reason why they would go for the shorter race with a Stayers Hurdle winner.
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Just checked and the Reynoldstown isn't till the 20th Feb. I thought it was earlier so maybe too close to Cheltenham. Anyhow really hope they tackle 3m with him.
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I understand giggsy but you're trying to find valid reasons for going JLT when in actual fact there aren't any yet. Let's see what his next run brings.
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Id definitely rather see him run over the trip if I was a backer. I've backed NMH and I'm more than happy with his preparation for the race. 3 wins including a G1 over the trip and can go straight there with no worries.
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As an MoT backer, I'd definitely be happier if he'd had a run over 3m over fences, or at the very least, run against some better horses over a shorter trip. His form amounts to fairly little even if he has jumped well and done all that has been asked of him. It certainly looks as though NMH has had the better prep.
But I am a big fan of the horse and think he has more class than the fav and should not be virtually double the price. |
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Surprised his price hasn't shortened now he is not entered for the GC.
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Don't think anyone thought it was actually going to happen. Although I'm amazed bookmakers haven't cut him as they don't usually need an excuse to shorten prices.
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But concerned about NMH not having a prep run - Don Poli only horse in last 50 odd yrs to have won without a run in the same Calendar year. He also overcame the 2 chases stat but last years' RSA was utter garbage - this years' appears to be very different.
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They didn't give Road To Riches a prep before the Gold Cup last year, he ran well enough. Wouldn't look too much into that. And in my opinion, outwith the top 2 in the market this year, there's too many ifs buts and maybes for it to be classed a stronger race than last year as have previously pointed out on thread.
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Looking at the entries if the first dozen horses in the betting were owned by different people they would all be running in the RSA. Because trainers have multiple horses prominent in the market then they will be kept apart meaning race won't be as competitive as it should be.
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Spot on Giggsy, and the fact Aux Ptit Soins who has already been confirmed as going straight to the World Hurdle and won't be jumping a fence at all this season is best price 16/1 for the RSA and in the top 5 in the betting tells you all you need to know about the strength and depth of the race outwith the top 2. I maintain my view that NMH and MOT will be joint favourites on the day, no bigger than 2/1 the pair.
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Still think Drumacoo is overpriced @ 25/1.goes Reynoldstown next according to trainer.last race fell apart probably but still impressed me
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It's good for me because I'm on NMH at 12/1 but it's not good for the race to have the race diluted because certain trainers/owners have the vast majority of the main contenders. I suppose it's good for the smaller trainers that potential winners end up going for other races as it gives their horses a better chance.
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With Don Cossack winning today hopefully that's NMH definitely going the RSA route.
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Any reason Killultagh Vic has been hammered today for JLT?
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Lydia Hislop tipped him on her Sportinglife column, though I don't know if that's enough to cause a market move.
I have another theory, though the market doesn't quite back this up, and it revolves around giving jockeys as many rides as possible, and making sure races which are there to won be are won. It may be that Willie has looked at the RSA and decided that NMH and MOT are going to be very hard to beat. Coupled with Shaneshill's less than perfect jumping in both his outings in my opinion, aim Killultough Vic at the JLT as well. It's looking quite a weak race with no star so why not go double barrelled and give yourself the maximum chance of winning it. By moving KV to the JLT with Shaneshill, and then running Black Hercules and Pont Alexandre in the RSA, Ruby and Townsend would both have a decent ride in both races. Aim Roi Des Francs at the 4 miler and let Patrick ride that. Gigginstown will probably also have Rule The World in the race, and can use a jockey of their own choosing, such as Nina Carberry, to ride that horse. I went through the last few 4 Mile chases and apart from Back In Focus, who was split up from Boston Bob, Willie doesn't really run a 'stable star' in it - it tends to be a decent horse which will give Patrick a nice spin and a decent chance of winning if things go well. Like I said, the market seriously goes against this theory, and it looks like BH is being aimed at the 4 Miler, but with Townsend really doing rather well over the past 12 months or so, I'm wondering whether keeping him sweet is more important than keeping Patrick happy. |
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Do people actually back horses on the strength of Lydia Hislops comments??
Obviously no idea what has caused this,has no one heard anything? |
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I strongly doubt it bud!
That all makes perfect sense to me Tory. As I posted in the Shaneshill thread, there have been several horses prominent in the JLT market who simply aren't going to run in the race. You had Douvan, L'Ami Serge and Vaniteux all in the first five in the betting, so I think a lot of this is just a correction. |
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buddeliea
15 Jan 16 06:54 Do people actually back horses on the strength of Lydia Hislops comments?? Obviously no idea what has caused this,has no one heard anything? Why not? Very well argued case for her recommendations on a platform that probably has millions of hits a day? Puzzled as to why you think people who go in for tipsters wouldn't follow her to be honest. |
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Sportinglife has that many different tipsters putting their two cents in, you lose track of it all. Lydia, "Man on the Spot", Ben Linfoot, Simon Holt, Cunningham's chat etc.
Would be better to just have one and it would be noticed more. ....so in answer to the question, I personally don't take notice of it. Interesting read, but wouldn't sway me one way or the other. |
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buddeliea 15 Jan 16 06:54 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 12,088 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
Do people actually back horses on the strength of Lydia Hislops comments?? Obviously no idea what has caused this,has no one heard anything? Me lol but not everytime or bet! Sometimes i'm already on. After reading her article and i find that she has put one up i tend to make a decision based on what i know and what ive just read whether i want to back it or not. I base my betting around my own knowledge of said horse (40%), whats written on here (35%), oddschecker (5%), Sporting Life (10%) and RP online (10%). Basically play it same way as anyone else, read it, watch it, read it again then work out if i agree with it.Anyone wish to post i don't have my own opinions go ahead, give me a good larf ![]() |