Cheltenham Festival
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RSA CHASE
RSA CHASE
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I'm on him at 12s then 8s after he made his debut. I can't understand why MOT is a higher price now even though he's been pulled out of the GC and PA disappointed yesterday. Any ideas?
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Im thinking Ponte Alexander is going to be a much better horse at Chelts ive took big prices about More of that and Ive been impressed with Pont his jumping can be spectacular at times wouldnt put latest run as dissapointing three runner in heavey ground hunting round different proposition better ground faster pace one horse i will definately be betting . Killultagh JlT and The Herc national Hunt thats the way i read it.
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But why is MOT drifting a bit even though it looks like he'd committed to RSA?
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Dont think there is anything significant id say the horse has held his price ok the Fav has strengthened so id expect to get a slightly better prive mot
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So if K.Vic goes to the JLT and Black Hercules goes to the 4 miler, who will Ruby ride in the RSA? Perhaps Pont Alex might still go there, but the options are running out. On this basis, I think Black Hercules is a likely RSA horse
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I'd expect ruby to be on black hercules. Abre de vie may bolt up yet, will be interesting to see if he takes up the 3 mile novice chase engagement or the more likely 2m3 in the next few days. Outlander is 2 from 2 and will be in the mix if stepped up.
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Outlander is a Giggy horse isn't he?
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Correct but cooper on NMH. And I wasn't intentionally insinuating ruby will ride that, just suggesting he's in the mix for the rsa if he's stepped up in trip. I'd be suprised if ruby's not on black hercules in the rsa at this stage
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Black Hercules absolutely looked an RSA horse yesterday. Whether or not he'd be good enough to go toe to toe with NMH or MOT I'm not sure, but for me he should certainly be aimed at the RSA now.
It may well be that after yesterday BH and PA get switched - PA to the 4 Miler and BH to the RSA. |
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Big move from PP today to shorten MoT to 3/1 second fav when he's a top priced 5/1 elsewhere... they make them virtual joint favs.
Suppose its probably just a correction, as looking down the betting, they are the two stand outs and could well go off around 2/1 each. |
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Decided Im going in again at 5/1.
EW bet to nothing and think he will definitely be sub 3/1 on the day. |
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BH is a decent price at 16. Wouldn't be out of place in the rsa. Obviously there's trip uncertainty etc... but if he did turn up he'd go off at 15/2 or thereabouts. I think he's likeable.
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If not a clerical error only if the RSA is confirmed for MoT - I wonder if PP has early knowledge of this 'impending' confirmation/announcement?
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PP went 9/1 Black Hercules after his win on Saturday. Today he was pushed out to 14/1 while MOT cut. Market effectively now a two horse race against the field. Suggests to me Black Hercules more likely to run in the National Hunt Chase - at this point in time.
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nmh 3.s MoT 5,s the rest anything you like by the looks of it
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Didn't Patrick buy BH for Willie & The Wylies? I know he has always has an affection for the horse and would imagine that he has a larger than usual say in where it goes. However that being said, being on him at 12s and 10s for the 4 Miler probably tints my glasses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxYQQoYfMtQ - Pretty much view on the 4 miler in 4 seconds |
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MoT is only 3/1 with PP, a betting entity reportedly with the closest ear to Irish Racing.
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Any ideas were MOT will be seen next? Hasn't run over 3m over fences yet and hadn't had a race since his 2nd win over 2 1/2m. Surely won't go for RSA without another run.
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In the post race interview after his last run, pretty sure Jonjo said he might go straight to Chelts now.
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I wouldn't be happy with that if I'd backed him.
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Black Hercules pushed right out to 20's in the RSA and into 7/2 shortest price for the 4 miler by Paddies.
Pont brought in to 14's from 20's for the RSA by them too. Those straws we were clutching at were pretty big  |
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PA has no chance in RSA. The one that beat him on Saturday was beaten by Monksland who was then stuffed TWICE by NMH.
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Odd how PP seem to know quickly. BH looked an rsa horse on Saturday, so for him to be pushed from 9/1 to 20/1 is a shambles. It's a pitty they can't get Patrick up on rois des fracs for the 4m.
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Not that odd when they have a Ruby on the payroll! Been this way for a few years Graeme.
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I know. Just odd how quick he gave them the info. Makes ruby seem like a bookies bitch who will do anything for a few quid.
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 True |
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bookies bitch
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Well chief, thankyou for putting that up. And I'll hold my hands up and say I look wrong. Just layed off my original stake on black hercules at 18.0 when I backed at 36.0 and 44.0 anyway. And put a little on pont at 20s with tote ,who I don't think will win but the field is completely cutting up. Hope abre de vie bolts up. Considered backing BH at 6s for nhc but I'll leave it alone and take the consequences as I decided against any race at 9s last week.
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You've got a good book there Scoob.
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The confidence that JP MC has in MOT is affecting this market. Maybe the rumour that he's backed it is causing the drift on all the other contenders?
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Where has JP said he has confidence in MOT?
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More of that hasn't been in a race yet over fences, would be hard for them to cut his price on what he's come up against so far over 2m4. There must be something in the rsa market at a huge price which is going to be single figures on the day, but I can't for the life of me see anything in the list. My first thought on last season's neptune run would be vyta du roc, but he's been piss poor over fences.
Have noticed that outlander isn't being layed at big prices on here anymore and at an all time low of 24.0, I have a fair bet on at 55.0. He wouldnt set your world alight watching him,but he's certainly decent. |
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There was a rumour flying around at Leopardstown on sunday that he had said it was his best hope of a winner at this year's festival. First thing Monday PP had cut it to 3-1. Chinese whispers mate.
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Well looking at his other festival contenders and the fact this could boil down to a virtual 2 horse race then he's probably right. Wouldn't get me running out to back it.
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You could say that giggsy but as one of my mates was pointing out, JP actually has 8 current antepost favourites - Josies Orders (X country) On the Fringe (Foxhunters) Ivanovitch Gorbatov (Triunph) Minella Foru (3 Mile Hcap) Aspen Colorado (Bumper) If in Doubt (Pertemps) Modus (County) Ned Buntline (G Annual)
That said, he was one of those running to back MOT! The really interesting thing is PP going so much shorter than everyone else. If it was a Mullins horse you could understand it more. |
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All relatively big price favs and 4 are in h'caps.
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Seeyouatmidnight,
backed it at 33/1 while back. i feel will start single figs if making it to the RSA. There is one other that shouts at me that is major over priced but i aint backed it yet. Will post after doing so in coming days. |
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STS,
Good shout that. Love that horse. |
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Agreed STS, he's jumped as well as any novice so far this season IMO, just got to worry that he won't be classy enough or quick enough on the ground...he'll win a Welsh National one day though.
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The is
Drumacoo 25/1 with pp at present, of which i have just relieved them of a small amount of my cash |