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L'Ami Serge - Arkle

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Replies: 202
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 14 Feb 16 11:33
STS - if your slips are for the Arkle I reckon you are done for no matter what. Along with many others.
By:
timtin
When: 14 Feb 16 11:49
Why are the owners pretending to be training? Do they think they know more than Hendo?
By:
timtin
When: 14 Feb 16 11:51
Must be hard training horses with owners that give those sort of declarations, it leaves you no choice.
By:
Quevega06
When: 14 Feb 16 12:18
L'ami Sege won't even go to the festival after that run , nothing against violet Dancer but the top four in the Arkle betting would lap him . Sizing John 8/1 w/o Douvan seems to be the bet
By:
shockster
When: 14 Feb 16 12:30
The Seven Barrows trainer reported the six-year-old to be "very perky" on Sunday morning and was at a loss to explain his under-par display in the Kingmaker Novices' Chase.

Sent off 1-5 favourite to beat two rivals, he ran way below form and was beaten 11 lengths by Violet Dancer, which appears to have damaged his prospects for the Cheltenham Festival.

However, Henderson dismissed reports that L'Ami Serge would definitely miss the Racing Post Arkle Trophy, for which he was pushed out from 7-1 second favourite to as big as 16-1. He also holds an engagement in the JLT Novices' Chase.

"He is 100 per cent this morning. He was perfectly all right when we scoped him at the races yesterday," said Henderson.


"He's sound as a pound this morning and we will have to try to find out what went wrong, because it did.

"He was never comfortable at any stage. Obviously it was pretty horrendous ground but he has run on soft ground before, he has run in heavy ground, and it's not been a worry.

"He schooled on Thursday and he was electric. His work has been brilliant and he just didn't turn up on Saturday. I do not know why. We will check him out tomorrow.

"The only thing I would emphasise is that we are not ruling the Arkle out, we are not ruling anything out. I certainly wouldn't rule out the Arkle but if there was a forfeit for the JLT tomorrow we would leave him in that as well.

"We scoped him at the races and he was 100 per cent clean. He's sound and very perky this morning. You wouldn't know he'd been anywhere and this horse all week has been in fantastic form.

"Daryl (Jacob) schooled him on Thursday and you will never see a horse jump better, but that horse didn't jump yesterday. Whether it was ground or what, I don't know.

"We've got to sort it out, we've got to see where we are."
By:
Quevega06
When: 14 Feb 16 12:44
Shockster does that not make it worse though . I've backed him myself at 14/1 down to 7s but can't see how he would run after yesterday .
By:
timtin
When: 14 Feb 16 12:49
@Quevega hopefully you're wrong and the trainer gets to decide the plans for horses, not owners or the public. Otherwise what is the point of training? Runs are always excusable and the festival is what matters, not some prep race on bad ground where something clearly was amiss.
By:
Quevega06
When: 14 Feb 16 12:56
Do you think something was amiss Tim or a 145 rated horse put his jumping to the test I.e mistakes . I totally understand that trainers should be deciding the races that's there job . I can also see the side from the owners they want a horse in every race . Look at Mullins it's happened at his stable with Don  Poli last yr but it wouldn't have mattered  4mile or 3mile he'd have won both . Owners need to let the trainers do the talking by winning races
By:
Quevega06
When: 14 Feb 16 12:57
Horse racing is turning into a more publicity stunt these last few years with gigginstown etc constantly on the TVs.
By:
shockster
When: 14 Feb 16 12:57
I've not backed LS so from a punting point of view yesterday did me no harm. He didn't jump well but I would not under estimate Violet Dancer. Should he actually jump well then I think he could be serious. Good value in the without Douvan market.
By:
Quevega06
When: 14 Feb 16 12:59
Yeah definitely is value there. It's the chance you (I) take with trying to get away from a short anti post fav at the festival . It'll continue to be up and down .
By:
baNjackst
When: 14 Feb 16 13:12
I'm not sure whats going on but everyone has a similar view that wasn't the L'ami Serge we are accustomed to seeing on a race course. Its not the first time Tricky Nicky got a long odds on shot beaten in a prep race for Cheltenham. I remember a 1/14 shot getting beat over a certain hunch Nicky had.

I remember not so long ago people questioning Faugheen when NC beat him, well that was a instance when Faugheen didn't give a true running. People hyped up NC on the back of it but with Wicklow brave only just behind it was obvious it couldn't possibly be a true running. The faithful were rewarded with 7/4 for the champion hurdle post race

I have a sneaky feeling at some stage LS will leave that shocker behind.
By:
timtin
When: 14 Feb 16 13:15

Feb 14, 2016 -- 12:57PM, Quevega06 wrote:


Horse racing is turning into a more publicity stunt these last few years with gigginstown etc constantly on the TVs.


agree, where all these racing managers came from? its totally different sport and trainer's responsibilities are just about all in one. I do see the purpose of keeping owner's horses apart, but they have BDM for JLT so makes no sense to put Serge in same race instead of running in what suits him, maybe a chance of tactics and let him go out in front instead of holding him up.

By:
ReaseHeath
When: 14 Feb 16 13:22

Feb 14, 2016 -- 1:12PM, baNjackst wrote:


I'm not sure whats going on but everyone has a similar view that wasn't the L'ami Serge we are accustomed to seeing on a race course. Its not the first time Tricky Nicky got a long odds on shot beaten in a prep race for Cheltenham. I remember a 1/14 shot getting beat over a certain hunch Nicky had.I remember not so long ago people questioning Faugheen when NC beat him, well that was a instance when Faugheen didn't give a true running. People hyped up NC on the back of it but with Wicklow brave only just behind it was obvious it couldn't possibly be a true running. The faithful were rewarded with 7/4 for the champion hurdle post raceI have a sneaky feeling at some stage LS will leave that shocker behind.


Potentially a decent parallel - after Faugheen got beaten Mullins thought in retrospect he had done too much during the week - I note Henderson said L'Ami Serge schooled on Thursday and was 'electric' - maybe he took too much out of himself 2 days before a race on bad ground - I'm sure Henderson has forgotten more about racehorses than I'll ever know but trainers do make mistakes.

By:
timtin
When: 14 Feb 16 13:34
Violet isn't a 6 times G1 winner, the bounce factor comes into it after a long layoff and was Faugheen seasonal appearances where he always performs below par(due to weight & fitness). Serge had a race just less than a month ago so race fitness and bounce factor can be ruled out. I don't think that was the cause, he just didn't jumped well and maybe needs to be ridden more aggressively and obviously something on the day was amiss. He previously ran to RP figures of 154 and 156 in his 2 runs over fences, now got 11 lengths beating from a mid 140 horse, that just isn't possible unless Violet improved to 160 which is hard to believe.
By:
baNjackst
When: 14 Feb 16 13:35
Its very possible ReaseHeath, and Mullins didn't take the same chance with Un de Seaux when he was way to free in a schooling session. He bypassed his intended race.

After Nicky got Zaynar beat at 1/14 at Kelso he went on to finish 3rd to binocular in the champion. So he does make mistakes like everyone but is well capable of making up for them.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 14 Feb 16 13:40
he beat Violet Dancer 15 lengths over hurdles giving him 3lbs too - different discipline admittedly but it's not as if Violet Dancer jumped him into submission yesterday.

Everything you say about Faugheen/NC is correct timtin - but it's also a fact that Mullins was quoted post defeat as saying they might have worked him too hard during the week.

It's possible they might find a muscular issue when they examine him more closely I suppose.
By:
timtin
When: 14 Feb 16 13:55
Faugheen was taken to the Curragh racecourse and his brains must've switched on and had almost a race when destroying NC, the bounce factor came into play when they met 4 days later. We could believe Hendo about the electric work Serge did but Faugheen work was seen by hundreds of spectators and his price collapsed to 1/6 during that week for no apparent reason. Even if Serge worked too hard we can't believe that when its coming from only 1 source and its not like he worked against Violet, who knows what he worked against but point is that I don't put this down to bounce factor or doing too much in that home work. He just had a off day for whatever reason and I can't take this running as his true form when he previously ran to 156. Also I believe a change of tactics and going from the front might suit him.
By:
baNjackst
When: 14 Feb 16 14:37
Timtin -bounce factor has nothing to do with the horses mentioned, all had uninterrupted training. What is been said that sometimes horses train with over exuberance wasting precious energy and fatigue easier as a result. This definitely happened to American Pharoah, and possibly happened to Faugheen against NC and L'ami Serge yesterday. Mullins wouldn't allow it to happen to UDS.
You do seem to agree that the form shown yesterday is below par. As for tactics LS should walk all over yesterdays opposition ridden anyway whatsoever. That implies either the horse is injured (which apparently isn't) or he left his race somewhere else.
By:
gutfeeling
When: 14 Feb 16 14:45
Heard LS was coughing loads after the race when taken back to stables, Whether he got some mud in his mouth or does have a cough I can't say for sure, Just what I heard from someone who had a runner yesterday.
By:
shockster
When: 22 Feb 16 12:19
Henderson has confirmed L'Ami Serge for The Arkle and says nothing came to light about his Kingmaker run. Vaniteux also runs.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 22 Feb 16 12:27
I wouldn't say he said quite that shockster!! I read it as hasn't ruled anything out yet... but suppose Bromley and MUnir will decide and Bromley was quite dismissive after the last run.
By:
shockster
When: 22 Feb 16 12:58
Sorry, just quoted Bill Esdale off Twitter.  Backed him in the W/O market 6/1 on the back of it.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 22 Feb 16 13:04
Only caught a snippet of it and not the whole thing but thought he was still a bit vague... He may well know more though!
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 22 Feb 16 13:05
Fingers crossed its right anyway... will be nice to have a run for the money.
By:
shockster
When: 22 Feb 16 13:08
@BillEsdaile
City AM Racing Editor, MD of Square in the Air - clients include Racing Post, Betway, Sporting Index and Gloucester Rugby Club.

"Vaniteux and L'Ami Serge will both go to the Arkle. Nothing ever came to light about Kingmaker flop. 'Extraordinary mystery'"
By:
shockster
When: 22 Feb 16 13:08
@BillEsdaile
City AM Racing Editor, MD of Square in the Air - clients include Racing Post, Betway, Sporting Index and Gloucester Rugby Club.

"Vaniteux and L'Ami Serge will both go to the Arkle. Nothing ever came to light about Kingmaker flop. 'Extraordinary mystery'"
By:
shockster
When: 22 Feb 16 13:08
@BillEsdaile
City AM Racing Editor, MD of Square in the Air - clients include Racing Post, Betway, Sporting Index and Gloucester Rugby Club.

"Vaniteux and L'Ami Serge will both go to the Arkle. Nothing ever came to light about Kingmaker flop. 'Extraordinary mystery'"
By:
shockster
When: 22 Feb 16 13:09
Apols Whoops
By:
scooby91
When: 07 Mar 16 21:53
Been alot of talk about lami serge going jlt this evening despite henderson saying he goes arkle earlier in the week.
By:
scooby91
When: 07 Mar 16 21:53
Been alot of talk about lami serge going jlt this evening despite henderson saying he goes arkle earlier in the week.
By:
scooby91
When: 07 Mar 16 21:53
Been alot of talk about lami serge going jlt this evening despite henderson saying he goes arkle earlier in the week.
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Mar 16 23:26
Not again! I've already accepted the horse will do battle with Douvan in the Arkle and probably get a thumping in the process.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 07 Mar 16 23:57

Mar 7, 2016 -- 9:53PM, scooby91 wrote:


Been alot of talk about lami serge going jlt this evening despite henderson saying he goes arkle earlier in the week.


based on David Minton's comments at Weatherbys preview evening, Scooby? You'd have to take that seriously, think he is pretty close to Henderson yard.

By:
scooby91
When: 08 Mar 16 07:14
Yes that's where I heard it first, he was tipping every henderson horse,  then he said vaniteux goes arkle (obviously) but even henderson thinks he can't beat douvan.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 08 Mar 16 16:53
yep, RUK reporting that L'Ami Serge goes to JLT with Nico likely to ride.

Nico gonna have a nice book of rides but it's a bit boom or bust with the Henderson horses...
By:
buddeliea
When: 08 Mar 16 17:05
Hendo quiet plays down his horses chances publicly, especially when up against a hot pot.
I imagine he thinks he has a chance.
By:
duffy
When: 08 Mar 16 17:22
Good news, fancy him for this race, and Bromley was telling the truth all that time agoHappy
By:
buddeliea
When: 08 Mar 16 18:08
Is it confirmed then?
By:
buddeliea
When: 08 Mar 16 18:11
Anthony Bromley, the owners' racing manager, said: "He'll be kept in both races, but it's more likely he'll be going for the JLT.

We'll keep an eye on the forecast, and may rethink plans, but the owners will probably have two runners in the JLT.



So,likely but not definite
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