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Arkle...........unless for some reason he fails to impress in the Kingmaker.
His campaign has been geared towards the Arkle and hes having an Arkle prep, his trainer has said Arkle all along. Good run nto, its done and dusted. |
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I'm happy with the situation as a lami serge and douvan backer for arkle. If he bolts up he runs in the arkle. There's going to be nothing decent in the kingsmaker and I'm expecting him to bolt up against anything behind douvan in the arkle betting. But if lami gets beaten by anything that lines up there, I wouldn't want him in the jlt anyway.
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Yep, about sums it up.
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Also, needs to be pointed out that, yes, he did get 20f but against what? A Class 4 novice chase where his 3 rivals are rated 135, 133 and 123.
He was probably running at 50%, and I'm sure Un De Sceaux gets 3m in a Class 4 chase, but doesn't mean he'd get in a Grade 1. He has yet to prove he properly gets 2.5m at a Grade 1 pace against the likes of Killultagh Vic and Shaneshill. I'm not really doubting he'll get 2.5m, but to say, yes he defintiely gets it is ludacrious based on a canter round Wetherby where he probably have gone round again. |
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Spot on chief.
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LAmi Serge must be an Arkle runner, agree with those thoughts on staying 20F against 2-stone inferior horses means nothing re stamina at the top-table at Chelters.
He looked class last year, and had a nightmare run in the Supreme, it would be great to see him get the chance to put his name up in lights vs Douvan this time around. |
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I reckon he's certain to stay the JLT trip myself, in the supreme, even before during and after the trouble he shaped like a horse that wanted further, the actual fact that he was messed about during the race and had to stop, start all the time wasting energy and still stayed on well actually proves it I think.
If he had that natural 2 mile speed he probably wouldn't have been at the back of the field in the first place. He wasn't hampered until the 4th flight but was still at the back of the field and continually on and off the bridal then, reckon it was a combination of race pace and quicker ground that did for him even before the trouble. |
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"It was a nice opportunity to try him over the longer trip and we know he'll have no problems with it
"It's just a shame that he's around at the same time as Douvan. Those comments point me toward the JLT and these days Henderson can't be gung-ho and waste two horses in one top race, he hasn't the ammunition to afford him that luxury and they already have Vaniteaux with an each way chance in the Arkle. It's down to the owners but with Bromley making JLT overtones we can assume they're onside They also have the information from the Supreme that for whatever reason he failed in that race and Douvan casts a huge shadow. You can also add that (bearing in mind they're sure that he'll stay) last year he absolutely mullered the current favourite for the race at Ascot, admittedly over hurdles but L'ami Segre certainly has looked a decent jumper to date. Finally, (this is thin) the JLT isn't as poor a relation to the Arkle as the Ryanair is to the CC and Vautour doing what he did in it hasn't had one person decrying the race has it. Altogether I think that a double figure NRNB is a good way to go. |
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Bit previous with the NRNB bit, still think it's worth the risk on the points above....when do they go NRNB on every race BTW?
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Think a few go nr no bet end of Feb Racing Post day?
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Cheers stevo.
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As an Arkle backer, I hope Bristol De Mai beats them up at Haydock tomorrow over 2m4; could go a long way in making the decision a bit easier. It might end up making no difference, and all hinges on L'Ami in the Kingmaker, but a good BDM 2.5m performance can't do any harm
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Haydock and Heavy ground has got to be tailor made for BDM.
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I initially backed LS in the Arkle at 10s but after reading comments on here ive had a rather biggish top up in the any race market with billys at 7s and had just a tenner at 12s for the jlt, enough i can afford to miss, so as i would much prefer to see him in the Arkle, him going jlt will hurt, but wont break the bank
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Hope he goes Arkle, otherwise will be bit of non events, but win any race the way to go sts.
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Couldn't have asked for more of Bristol De Mai then. Hopefully that'll make connections split L'Ami and Bristol even more now.
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Tricky, they wouldn't want to stick L'ami in the Arkle just because BDM would be more suited to the JLT, if the JLT suits L'ami better than thet's where that one should go, personally I couldn't for one minute have BDM on better ground at the festival, haydock bog right up his street though, everything will happen all to quick for him at the festival IMO.
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I agree re Bristol de Mai; not one I'd really consider for the JLT. Just thinking would connections want the 3rd and 4th favourite in one race or 2nd and 3rd in another?
I know they didn't mind running Peace & Co and Top Notch against each other, but that was because there was little choice. For the sake of the Arkle, I think L'Ami needs to run in that, but I can understand if they went the JLT route too. Could be a last minute ground decision. |
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Fair point, I think I'd chance BDM in the RSA myself, a slower all round pace and hope he gets home!!
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The $64k question is will BDM have the beating of Shaneshill and KV in the JLT? I'd think very possibly Shaneshill but not KV on either hurdle or fence form, but L'Ami Serge (LS) will most probably, all things being equal.
The 2nd $64k question is will LS have the beating of Douvan in the Arkle, all things being equal? I doubt it very much as LS lacks the pace and/or jumping proficiency over 16f. On the other hand one must not be afraid of a horse in any race bearing in mind the Arkle is for novices - what a dilemma for their owner? |
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BDM much better on flat tracks - they should just save him for Aintree and run L'ami Serge in whichever race they think is best.
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Jlt turning into a very good race imo,think Lami Serge goes Arkle as only Douvan to beat lol.
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JLT field only going to get bigger
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Indeed, if that performance by Douvan did not scare off potential challengers including L'Ami Serge I'd be very surprised - the only hope is Ar Mad's front running might unsettle Douvan, only hope!
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Douvan was 1/14 guys, lets not get carried away
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forget the price STS, if you should be able to look beyond that and appreciate the quality of what you saw , Douvan would laugh at L'ami Serge in the Arkle ...that horse will be heading to the JLT if they want to win at the festival with it.
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He was that price for a reason.
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Between UDS and Douvan I'd rather take Douvan and 1/2 of UDS's price ie 4/7, if I was 'buying' money, why? The jumping!
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Only the quality of race in last years JLT that seperates what we saw there and Vautour at the last festival, the jumping did actually really look effortless, and the squeeze after the last and the immediate acceleration...perfection!
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velvet was 2 lengths behind at the last and drifted right to the other side when jumping it, not mentioning he kissed the ground earlier on, I'd say he would've finished alot closer and he's only an 140 horse. Chelt entirely different test but if that scares opposition away its time to give up and stop training.
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Very impressive performance that. He didn't get out of second gear all the way round and was foot perfect. I've no doubt he'll get further next year so I'd be suprsied if he took UDS on.
Re this year's Arkle, I think we all need to focus on the w/o Douvan markets! |
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Hope he does stay at 2 m Chief,something to look forward to next season in the QM.
UDS needs competition,and racing needs it. |
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Completely agree mate, and don't want to start thinking of next year already, but I personally don't think they'll take each other on, as much as I'd like them too.
Stamina wise, 2.5m is easily within Douvan's radar. |
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It was impressive,but we still don't know how he will fare in a 2m chase at Cheltenham,and he's yet to face the English opposition.
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Douvan will hose up, will be decent to see Ar Mad taking his place if he can go left handed as he will go off at a clip but don't think anyone can live with him.
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Well you are not alone.
I say let the other horses speak for themselves and wait a bit before hailing him the victor. Seven weeks to pass yet. |
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Budd i'd guess your a cautious dovan backer who wishes the festival was sooner. I think velvet maker is no mug. I'd give douvan a mark of around 172 already. Wish i had any sort of voucher on him.
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No,ain't backed him unfortunately.
Just think the race is still interesting. |