Cheltenham Festival
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L'Ami Serge - Arkle
L'Ami Serge - Arkle
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Replies: 202
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@bettingmoe – L’Ami Serge will run in the Kingmaker at Warwick and then onto the Arkle which has always been his aim. Although he’s run and won twice over fences, he still needs more experience as both were races where fences were omitted due to the weather and he was very much the best horse in the race taking on inferior opposition.
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I think he's a fair price at 11/2 tomorrow, in receipt of 8lbs from Dodging Bullets.
A good run here should put all talk of the JLT to bed. |
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What about Warwick?
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Ah didn't see he was still entered in the Kingmaker.
Just looking through the Newbury card and saw he was in the Game Spirit, so assumed they'd switched his targets. Ignore everything I said above  |
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I've to concede LS is heading to the Arkle, drubbing or not, unless something is amiss with BDM or the ground comes up unbelievably soft on Arkle day.
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If the ground comes up unbelievably soft, he's even more likely to go for the Arkle, surely?
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If going is unbelievably soft on Arkle day BDM is more likely to go to the Arkle, according to its trainer, and LS rerouted to the JLT.
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But it won't be to do with his trainer will it? I can't believe Munir will switch them around when they clearly think BdM is the one with more stamina, hence the current arrangements?
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I believe the logic behind it was Douvan could be less effective in the soft and as such BDM had a better chance of beating Douvan than L'Ami Serge. On the other hand L'Ami Serge would have a 'fav' chance in the JLT.
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Surely not now!
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JLT or nothing
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Shift BDM to the RSA.
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Absolute rubbish.
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Something must be amiss, that is not the same LS out there today!
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Based on his jumping today the best race for him is the Champion Hurdle. Jump poorly and soft. Over hyped. Just my opinion.
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LS was run off his feet, and his jumping did not improve after making a few slopping jumps; I think I've written off my stake backing him without Douvan in the Arkle.
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Horse absolutely legless over the last. JLT definitely off the menu. Mind due with that jumping you'd lay all day and novice chase next month.
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any
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He was legless at the last because he was run off of his feet through the race and was forced into making mistakes.
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Whether Arkle or JLT, he's winning nothing based on that.
I personally wouldn't shift Bristol de Mai's race to accommodate L'Ami; BDM is easily the owners best chance of a winner now, so he should have first pick of what race to be in. |
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And The winner took the last 4 out by the roots
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The nothing special winner smacked more than half the fences so if L'ami can't travel upsides then it's no chance following BDM et al over 2.5m.
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Only an opinion obviously but I could see BDM being run off of his feet a bit on better ground in the JLT, I wouldn't be moving him to suit L'ami, I reckon it would be for his own good, whether he could deal with MOT and co is another matter.
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Exactly Decalec. If Violet Dancer put in a great round, you can say fair enough, but Violent Dancer clouted about 5 as well.
Duffy, I don't think he was run off his feet. He had his ground today, and Violent Dancer isn't a speed freak, he just grinds them out from the front. I just think LS wasn't good enough. |
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Anyway, at this rate Douvan is going to have a relative walkover, I'm not counting Ar Mad, who the trainer didn't even fancy for the race not too long ago, and he's an optimist!
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Anthony Bromley, racing manager to L'Ami Serge's owners, said: "It's safe to say he won't be running in the Arkle and we'll have to see how he is in next few days if he will run [in the JLT]. He was jumping to his left more than usual and that was disappointing."
Arkle will be a no bet race for me now. Can't back Douvan at 1/3 or whatever price he is, but pointless trying to take him. Main thing is, I'm bloody glad I got my stake back in the Game Spirit because he'd still be running now! |
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I'm glad the first day of the festival is the first day and not the last if you know what I mean
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Still 14/1 on offer for the JLT here if one thinks he's still Cheltenham bound.
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Yes, get all the hotpots over and done with especially if one is doing multiples.
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It's not going to be a popular opinion but IMO and all things being equal, I just think that L'ami is a better horse than BDM, he'd put up a better show in the JLT providing he is OK for me whereas BDM has a real chance of staying 3 miles and running well in the RSA.
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I suppose it's quite risky trying 3m out for the first time in the RSA, especially when the 5yo don't get the big allowance like they used to.
If L'Ami and BDM all lined up in the JLT, I would expect BDM to finish ahead of him, but based on his jumping. If anything Vyta Du Roc would be best served in the JLT too, so the owner could have three in it. |
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This has always puzzled me: why do trainers with horses earmarked for a shorter distance race as 1st choice starts off running in one, then runs in a longer race and back to a shorter one? Surely, for a lay person this will only confuse the horse especially a horse who is not a natural over fences and needs more practice over them - I'm perplexed!
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There are good horses in the JLT; Outlander and BDM are good but nothing special, could Jonjo be thinking of MOT for the JLT as well - it is there for the taking, If so, BDM could be switched to the RSA and possibly give NMH a proper race; BDM could even end up competing in longer races after.
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If connections were talking LS up as there best novice chaser would that not worry the army of BDM supporters, Personally not sure what went wrong today with LS but I couldn't have BDM for any race at Cheltenham.
Very disappointing year so far for an owner who looked to have a least 4 top class horses to challenge with in big races, and now the least lightly of the 4 is only realistic chance. I'll be laying him all day long. |
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Is he out of Arkle now?
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JLT or nothing I read on Racing Post site
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Yesterday's race too bad to be true - Fox Norton a fair horse ran no race either weird hope they just put a
I've thru race & continue with Arkle plan Maybe horse didn't act on track at Warwick |
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Anthony Bromley, racing manager to L'Ami Serge's owners, said: "It's safe to say he won't be running in the Arkle and we'll have to see how he is in the next few days if he will run [in the JLT]. He was jumping to his left more than usual and that was disappointing."
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Run has to be too bad to be true, something am very confident will come to light. If nothing does, then my L'ami Serge slips are in the bin
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