Cheltenham Festival
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L'Ami Serge - Arkle
L'Ami Serge - Arkle
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Replies: 202
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Plenty of 8-1 about. A 6 length beating of Run Ructions Run on heavy ground over 2 and a half miles? Douvan only has to jump round buddy.
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Sure 8/1 is value as well.. if L'ami Serge will have an untroubled path without all the interferences he had in the Supreme it'll take a v good one pass him. Not sure Douvan's jumping is as clean and swift as L'ami and in general not sure he's a better horse than Serge
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A bit like his first run imo. Haven't learnt a great deal! All he can do is win these races and I thought he jumped nicely on the whole. Happy with 14/1 and think he is the worthy second fav at this stage.
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timtin
douvan IS a v good one...L'ami will get outpaced IMO, I saw that last year before the trouble. |
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Imo Douvan won't be winning this Arkle!! I am inclined to think that this one is the dodgy one of the Mullins 4 fold on day one! Well he and Min but he is still odds against and so probably too obvious as the most dodgy one in the 4 fold as the Supreme is likely to be much more competitive with quite a few more runners than the Arkle but that's for the Supreme thread.
Forget completely about hurdles form, what has Douvan done over fences that Lami hasn't to warrant such a skinny price  They have both been to and won uncompetitive novice chases at mightily short long odds on prices! What have we learned I never take hurdle form into account when looking at a horse over the bigger obstacles, for me thats just stupid, horses can both improve at varying rates and decline for the introduction of jumping fences in their careers!!! |
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The difference between Douvan and L'ami Serge and it's a huge one is that in a championship race on spring ground, Douvan was able to travel through the race like a dream, L'ami (even before his problems) couldn't, if he travelled better he'd have been able to be better positioned and probably would have avoided much of the interference he suffered.
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JLT for me. Easier option and no trip worries at all. Finished the race a fresh horse. Why run the risk of getting beaten up by Douvan again. Part of a trainers job is finding races that their horse has the best possible of winning. L'ami Serge has already beaten Killutagh Vic easily and probably would have beat Shaneshill with a clear run in the Supreme. Would not of beat Douvan though imo.
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Sick of this easy option talk. You don't worry about one horse, L'ami Serge would be an Arkle horse any other year. Douvan might well end up winning, but his pre-Cheltenham coronation is all a bit previous.
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The case for Douvan is really bolstered by WPM saying that he's the best he's trained! JLT for L'Ami
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Your still pointing to hurdles form though !
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What? Cos of what a trainer says??
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Exactly buddeliea
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okey doke.
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I just don't understand why people keep mentioning the JLT. They've been saying all season it's the Arkle, and he's running in the Kingmaker next.
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putting 2 and 2 together,it's quiet popular on here.
Anyone think the trainer wants to keep LS and Vaniteux separate at the festival? |
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But as posted a few times buds, it's got absolutely nothing to do with NJH. Munir has Bristol de Mai and Vyta du Roc who both look JLT bound. Vyta du Roc could possibly go RSA if they want a runner in each race but definitely isn't an Arkle horse.
I think it's an absolute certainty Serge goes to the Arkle. |
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was only a question.
He might as the trainer be saying things to his owners as to the best options for both horses chances of victory. Just summising mate. |
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I am agreeing with you buddeliea, my 'exactly' i was being facetious to those who think cos a trainer says hes the best around he must be.
But then again after that display there by thomas hobson, who'd argue  |
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ok mate
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Sorry didn't mean that to sound dismissive! Understood what you were saying, but think it would be nigh on impossible for even NJH to talk them into that one! They can't choose a different race just becaus of Douvan imo.
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Oh yes mate quiet agree.
Not saying it myself,but the horse has just won easily over a distance near the JLT, and add to that he's a better horse than the owners other JLT options,plus Vaniteux may be thought of as the better chance of winning the Arkle? As I say just summising. fWIW I think both should go for the Arkle,and I think both would have a fair chance as well from what I have seen this season from all the likely candidates. |
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^
if you had trainers such as hendo or Nicholl's actively avoiding mullins it wouldn't augur well at all, those two at least should continue to put it up to mullins. |
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Absolutely Duffy
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Put it up to him in other races. Not against the best horse Mullins has ever trained.
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When Mullins says Douvan is the best he's ever trained do people really believe him as I think he's just a touch over enthusiastic on occasions.
It could well turn out the best he's ever had but I'm sensing a touch of the O'briens with every season throwing up potentially the best ever horse he's had. |
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Beats everyhing at home anyways. Now is the best group of horses he's ever had mate.
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Agreed, don't think for one moment he's the best he's had...may prove otherwise of course, but for instance, he hasn't given me that wow factor yet in any run whereas Vautour most certainly has.
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What they do at home is meaningless. Half speed gallops round in circles when we have no idea what weight each jockey is carrying which I do not see with my own eyes are no basis for debate or betting.
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Anyway I apologise as have taken the thread off point as this is about L'ami Serge and not anything else.
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Mullins said he's as good as any novice he brought to festival. He's still in novice company and yet to face older horses. The only champion that Mullins has is a 3 mile pointer, who has been rerouted from a chasing career because he was considered a viable CH contender, unlike many others before him like UDS, Vautour and AP. I quote Mullins "To have a potential champion hurdler in the yard is huge, rather than a horse going for the Arkle" Now stop with the nonsense hype.
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L'Ami Serge had a proper race today, nonetheless I cannot help but think he jumped a bit big on a few occasions. And with that in mind and given the race distance today (19f) I'd think the JLT could be more his cup of tea as the Arkle could be a bit pacy for him especially if Ar Mad runs; I could actually see L'Ami Serge stepping up in distance again - he showed he got the trip very well (and more) - later on in the year (eg 24f) after today's sterling performance.
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I think much will depend on how Bristol de Mai gets on in his Graduation Chase over 2m5f at Market Rasen on Friday. Could be a decent little race looking at the entries.
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“I was very happy with L’Ami Serge when I won on him at Wetherby, which was a good experience for him on very tacky ground,” added Jacob.
“Obviously he got the two and a half miles well that day, and he could be even better with something to give him a lead. He’s versatile so could come back in trip for the Arkle, but all options are open at present.” |
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Will Ar Mad be running again prior to Cheltenham? If so, could it be the Kingmaker at Warwick, the same race targeted for L'Ami Serge (LS)? If so, the pace anticipated will be a rehearsal of the Arkle, and no doubt will test LS I'd expect.
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was speculating the same thing - thought i read somewhere that they may go straight to chelt with Ar Mad - maybe imagining that - i know after originally saying no way for chlt they quickly revised and said no harm in giving him a go left handed - if he doesnt pitch up in kingmaker i am wondering who exactly will - maybe one of the irsh if they dont want to run in irish arkle, fox norton apparently going straight to fest - maybe arzal?? - but possibility exists at the moment that the kingmaker might also be very uncompetitive - i did wonder about violet dancer to put some pace to race and to tell them whether arkle or grand annual? anyone got any thoughts?
I would think fans/bettors of LS would want to see something half decent and preferably a front runner pitch up |
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Let's hope the Kingmaker is competitive otherwise pointless for LS; tbh I'd think LS has only an outside chance of being the victor in the Arkle - I'd put Douvan, Ar Mad and Vaniteux before LS.
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Connections of L'Ami Serge were pleased to see their charge answer any stamina doubts at Wetherby last Saturday.
The Nicky Henderson-trained six-year-old made it two from two over fences in West Yorkshire, winning over almost two and a half miles. His next assignment is due to be the Kingmaker Novices' Chase at Warwick and his performance there is likely to dictate his Cheltenham Festival target in March. "It was a nice opportunity to try him over the longer trip and we know he'll have no problems with it," said Anthony Bromley, racing manager for owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede. "He fiddled a couple of fences but in the main jumped well. "It was a very pleasing performance because Tim Easterby's mare (Run Ructions Run) is pretty useful. "I thought the bookies had the difference between them in the betting too large but they were right, I suppose. "It's just a shame that he's around at the same time as Douvan. "If L'Ami Serge goes and wins the Kingmaker really well then I'd say we'll stay at two miles for the Arkle, but now we at least have the option of the JLT. "Nicky also has Vaniteux for the Arkle so we'll have to see how he gets on in the Lightning at Doncaster." |
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Hope he goes Arkle with L'ami, he'd be a big danger to KV in the JLT, I know it was a world ago and over shorter but L'ami ate KV for breakfast at Ascot over 2 miles and I reckon L'ami will appreciate the step up in trip.
I will be very interested watching the Kingmaker with a view to L'ami and the JLT. |
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Yes me too mate. Praying he annihilates them!
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Despite connections indicating a decision as to which race LS will run in at Cheltenham only after the Kingmaker at Warwick I believe connections are already leaning towards the JLT, and the Kingmaker race is being used to gain more chasing experience for LS, why? It is because of comments like these, for instance,
1) It's a shame that LS is around at the same time as Douvan 2) Nicky also has Vaniteux for the Arkle so we'll see how he gets on in the Lightning at Doncaster 3) LS has proven he gets 20f and could be even better given a lead As always a decision will only be made closer to the race unless the participation of Douvan is in doubt. |