Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
09 Nov 15
13:44
Joined:
Date Joined:
02 Apr 03
I have been holding off backing this fella, having seen his entries over hurdles, but delighted to see he will be swerving the Greatwood and going Novice Chasing now.
I personally thought he was a bit unlucky in the Supreme and whilst he would never have troubled Douvan he could have finished much closer. Looks a likely type for fences and at the current 14/1, he looks the value in the race to me. I certainly couldn't be backing Douvan at 5/2 at this stage. Nothing else really stands out at this stage imo.
I personally thought he was a bit unlucky in the Supreme and whilst he would never have troubled Douvan he could have finished much closer. Looks a likely type for fences and at the current 14/1, he looks the value in the race to me. I certainly couldn't be backing Douvan at 5/2 at this stage. Nothing else really stands out at this stage imo.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 202
|
By:
for some horses even a single event that unbalanced them they stop giving their true running, he was hampered 2-3 times in the Supreme and I def. could see him in front of Douvan if he had the same perfect path. I would take a bet on him at 12s 100 times before thinking of betting on Douvan below 6/1.
|
|
By:
What about Shaneshill. Hate the new novice chase race, just muddies the waters to where the horses will run.
|
|
By:
He won over 2m4f at Fairyhouse didn't he Fidway, then was stepped up to 3m for Punchestown? Would be very surprised if he is an Arkle horse myself. Agree the extra race makes it difficult all the same
|
|
By:
I like Garde le Victoire for your Arkle but I can see the appeal of L'Ami Serge too. Both are solid /low 150 hurdlers and can be got at decent prices.
L'Ami's smashing of Kilcooley last year looks even better now based on his recent run at Wetherby. Douvan will be very difficult to beat, but these at around 7 times the price would be my choice at this early stage. |
|
By:
Over exaggerated then, about 5 times the price.
|
|
By:
I like Garde La Victoire too, but am not sure he would have quite the toe for an Arkle unless the ground came up soft. I know its the usual guessing game this far out, but wouldnt he be more of a JLT type maybe? He#s already won over 2m4f around Cehltenham.
|
|
By:
Yeah thats always the worry mate, but he seems to have been over 2m alot more recently and Hobbs named him as his Arkle horse a few weeks ago. There's the Old argument that you have to stay further than 2m etc etc.
FWIW I think he may get done a but for toe, was more an ew bet when he was 25's last , so 6.5/1 to place is fair to me. |
|
By:
Have backed L'Ami Serge.
NH and BG have both always held this horse in the highest regard. Nicky was shocked and "mortified" by his performance in the Supreme Novices. That threw up an issue which has since been solved. Going into the Supreme, he was the only horse who'd run to a mark in the 150's, and with improvement expected over fences, I think he's got to go close at the Arkle. |
|
By:
Didn't realise Hobbs had said that chief, cheers.
|
|
By:
Does anyone think lami serge might go for the jlt though,if it runs in the arkle it's a great Ew bet,in the supreme nothing went its way !
|
|
By:
Well having had my fingers well and truly burnt with Vautour last year, I will never be that confident again cufc! But everything Ive seen from L'Ami Serge suggests he has bags of speed and he looks a pure 2 miler to me. His runs in France didnt suggest he wanted further and he is just so quick, that I think the Arkle is tailor made for him. As wellchief says below, you also want a horse who can stay a bit further to win this, so I cant see them wanting to run him over further myself.
I also think Simon Munir has other novices who look more likely to be stepped up, particularly Vyta du Roc, who looks a likely JLT type, along with maybe Top Notch (not sure if hes going chasing?) and Bristol de Mai. Of all of his novice chasers, L'Ami Serge looks the strongest Arkle type to my eyes. |
|
By:
I do have a couple of worries with the horse mind you... One is the ground. All of his best runs have been on soft, and you could easily argue he didnt look mad on it at Cheltenham. And he also looks like he might prefer a flat track. Neither of these are proven yet and not putting me off him at the prices, but would be keen to see he can handle the track and better going before i went in really big!
|
|
By:
ccm I also had my fingers well and truly burnt off Vautour not running in the arkle,I was that pig headed I wouldn't bet it in the jlt,lami serge will go close and I agree the arkle would be its race,it's that same dilemma every year
|
|
By:
I'd be worried about the ground...he has a soft ground action, the near fore goes round like a windmill and he hated every bit of the supreme, just never travelled from the word go.
|
|
By:
We've not seen that he can handle 2 miles on decent ground against top class 2 milers ....over hurdles at least....he beat stayers for the most part in his wins, when he was faced with it at the festival for the first time he couldn't handle it.
|
|
By:
Tbf Duffy it didn't get off to the best start,then a horse fell in front of it,probably is better like with cut but wouldn't totally dismiss it on good ground
|
|
By:
I may be being too harsh and obviously the horse falling impeded him but even so throughout the race, before and after the incident he looked awkward and ungainly, don't know if he was changing his legs or what but he looked uncomfortable on the ground
|
|
By:
Duffy. I think it may have been the undulations more than the ground tbh.... but willing to give him another chance at Chelts.
|
|
By:
Yes good point,exciting prospect wherever he ends up.
|
|
By:
Not sure if we learnt that much today. Although I did think he looked a natural over his fences. My worry is that I still think he might be a soft ground horse.
But happy to see him out and show he looks like he could make a decent chaser. |
|
By:
I agree him being a soft ground horse and see him being better over further, speaking as a complete neutral as far as this horse is concerned I'd be much happier taking the 16's about the JLT rather than the 10's about the Arkle.
|
|
By:
I have seen a few posts saying that Duffy but I really don't see it. Think he's all about speed myself.
|
|
By:
Somebody should have told him that in the supreme when he was carrying my wedge.
|
|
By:
He carried mine too. A lot went wrong for him that day though EO. Don't think lack of pace was the issue. He didn't look happy most of the race to my eyes.. Either the ground or maybe the undulations, either of which would be a worry. Or maybe he was just over the top for the season?
|
|
By:
Looks like someone is out to get L'Ami Serge on here: there are two lots of £400 and £455 at 10p and 10.5p respectively despite persistent support at 10.5p and 11p recently; could it be the behaviour of someone in the know?; on the other hand this seems to be the 'trend' - I have noticed it on Min, No More Heroes, Don Cossack, etc - if one wants to accumulate (bet on) eg to try and give the impression that there are ready layers, but the reality is these lots are there to try and solicit/attract layers at bigger prices. I'm sure time will tell if this is a ruse by a user/s of this betting medium.
|
|
By:
I didn't realise just how bad he was compromised in the Supreme until I saw Graham Cunningham on RUK go through his race the other day. I think it was because all eyes were on Douvan the whole way round and you sometimes miss what goes on behind. He was hampered three times, and in the Arkle, there will be a lot less runners, so less likely to have that again.
Not saying he would have beat Douvan, but he would have defintiely finished a lot closer with clear round. I think I've talked myself into an ew bet. |
|
By:
Looked like he was going to get pulled up, he was last and not travelling also getting trapped in left, right and center and still managed to get 4th. Defly worth a e/w punt.
|
|
By:
Surprisingly not as popular as he should given last season's credentials - is the Arkle the only race on the agenda, anyone please?
|
|
By:
Seemed to travel well enough but was hampered at two critical stages in the race, firstly when Seeding unseated, just as the pace was quickening on the second circuit, with Geraghty getting him on an even keel very quickly.
He then made up ground very smoothly (for a horse supposedly not travelling well) but was trapped and shuffled backwards again just as they went for home after two out. Impressive really then and whilst it would be a leap of faith to say he'd have beaten Douvan, like Well Chief says, he'd have finished closer, probably placed. |
|
By:
At the point he was hampered in the supreme he was 10 lengths behind then, he didn't travel to the first 2 flights in the race that well and for me was ever so slightly unhappy on the ground and the pace, I think these points have been overlooked amid the talk of the obvious unlucky points of the race for him.
|
|
By:
For me he wants further than 2 miles and will be caught out in the Arkle, the supreme run looked like a horse that would appreciate further.
Even with his troubled passage, if he was comfortable in himself he would have handled it all a lot better, he ran like a stayer relatively speaking and was inconvenienced all the more because of that IMO. |
|
By:
Lami serge couldn't breath in the supreme, was found to have a trapped epiglotis.
He was then operated on and Missed aintree and punchestown because of this. You can believe that or not, but makes alot of sense to me, going on his previous runs. |
|
By:
Entered at Wetherby on Saturday.
|
|
By:
Over 2m4f.
Interesting, considering they have continually stated the Arkle is the target. |
|
By:
Look at josses hills form last season before the arkle. And his continuous moaning about the lack of 2 mile novice chases. Don't get worried anyone who's backed him for the arkle.
|
|
By:
Look at josses hills form last season before the arkle. And his continuous moaning about the lack of 2 mile novice chases. Don't get worried anyone who's backed him for the arkle.
|
|
By:
Look at josses hills form last season before the arkle. And his continuous moaning about the lack of 2 mile novice chases. Don't get worried anyone who's backed him for the arkle.
|
|
By:
Henderson just said that he's going to run at Doncaster at the end of the month over 2 miles
|
|
By:
just seen the winner of the Arkle
 new price 7/1 still value |