Cheltenham Festival
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Neptune Novice hurdle 2016
Neptune Novice hurdle 2016
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Replies: 276
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yorkhill neptune?
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You would think so, as Bellshill is surely out of calculations.
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Unless something comes up like an injury, I'd still expect Bellshill to line up in the Neptune.
That surely can't be his running? Can't blame the ground as he's won three on heavy, but could just be that when up against a much better class of opposition, he doesn't go on it as well. Nearly came down at the first and went out like a light. I'd be inclined to put a line through it, but I wouldn't be queueing up to back him against Yanworth. |
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Not so sure Chief, reckon we won't see Bellshill at Cheltenham.
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That definitely wasn't Bellshill's running and I'd imagine they will find something wrong with him when he's checked over. Severity of the problem will determine whether or not he'll go to Cheltenham. Not saying by any stretch that he'll beat Yanworth, just that today he was miles below par.
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Can't see OOseven giving Yanworth much to worry about. I know Henderson doesn't like the potato race, but surely he'd have a better chance there?
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wouldn't get past barters hill or Shantou Village in the AB either. Can see it running into a place in the Neptune
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I won't post my bets but I will discuss the racing.
Yorkhill now looks like going the neptune by the exchanges and pp. They also shortened long dog into 10/1 and a toi phil into 8/1. In the supreme they have shortened buveur dair into 7/1 with paddy further enhancing the prospect of yorkhill not lining up here. 1 horse of note I the supreme market which is a huge longshot at 110.0 is babbling stream who won nicely yesterday and his target would be the supreme according to willie, bit he is also for sale publicly, and if he was going to be a supreme winner I'm sure ricci would of snapped him up. Bleu et rouge a mcmanus horse also looks to be avoiding yanworth in the neptune where pp go a standout 16/1 and would look to be the mount of barry geraghty in the supreme. Alot may depend on how modus runs in the betfair hurdle, Bellshill hasn't been shortened for any other race, although I would keep an eye on any move for the bartlett or supreme as he's surely better than Saturdays run. Although something may come to light in the next few days ruling him out all together. |
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I'll also add that nicky has confirmed buveur dair do be going supreme and not for the neptune,hes set to run again in the next week to 10 days
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I can't believe that was Bellshills true running Saturday, he went out like a light even though RW allowed him to coast home. No news yet on him? something surely amiss?
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STJ - of course it wasn't Bellshill true running. Same could be said for Wylies other horses and a few other notable WPM runners last couple of weeks. Something amiss in Willieland? Looks like a case of the chills. imo.
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The run of Bellshill was disappointing, however, his form did not amount to much either eg beating non-entities at very prohibitive prices.
Good to hear Buveur D'air is heading to the Supreme though. |
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Agree impossible but even on his bumper form he's a better horse than Saturdays showing.
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Ma Du Fou running in the 3:05 Huntingdon, just had a look at his form and i can't believe he's not favorite for this contest imo so have had a score on at 11/4. Took Ma Du Fou326.82 £3.30 £1,075.20 but laid £5 off at 130 but hopefully he still bolts up today for a half decent trade off.
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Good performance in a decent little race.
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"Bellshill has since scoped dirty" - Paudie Hassett (Head of Irish Racing)
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^^ Latest Spoilsports Podcast
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Nice form boosts for YORKHILL 00 SEVEN and MA DOU FOU with agrapart winning the betfair hurdle very nicely.
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Yes and another boost for Yanworth with Charbel hacking up on sunday
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Is Yorkhill definitely Neptune bound now? I assumed with Bellshill flopping he would be, but I haven't heard anything.
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If it wasn't for Min I would have thought Yorkhill would be clear favourite for the Supreme (on actual form he should be).
They made the mistake of running Nichols Canyon in the Neptune last year because they had Douvan in the Supreme - hope lightning doesn't strike twice. |
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^ same scenario with the two owners as well - is it just coincidence that the horse with the best hype is owned by the voluble, extrovert Ricci and the horse with the best form is owned by the more understated Wylie?
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I'm not massively against Yanworth but there've been many horses to run a great race in which everything suited them and get a big rating & hype for then on the big day with totally different conditions to flop. He ran a good race on good ground last in the bumper but the odds-on price is closely linked with his lto run on heavy ground and even though everything checks out in rating terms it'll be a different game altogether against better opponents, different ground and who knows what tactics from every jockey I don't think it'll see him to the same effect as it did in the trial.
Much rather prefer the forgotten one Long Dog who has done just enough to win his last 2 G1s on heavy/soft goings. With a nice break after a long summer campaign and more suited to the faster ground which we'll hopefully have in March then at 14/1 he's the value bet in this. |
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Yanworth is a worthy favourite of course but put it this way, I'd sooner have the 7/4 Min in his race than the 11/10 about Yanworth in his.
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Noooooooo to the last two comments
 i'm on Yanworth at 12/1 Neptune and 9s any race, am on Long Dog at 12s any race and 16s neptune as well like have to admit but i aint backed Min nor am i likely to unless someone pushes him out on the Tues morning to a non resistible price lol  of which is a good chance of happening given it's the first race of a long week! |
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I'd much sooner have the 12/1 Yanworth his race than the 7/4 about Min in his.
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My top five most likely winning odds-on/fav at Cheltenham eg:-
1) Yanworth 2) Thistlecrack 3) Douvan 4) Min 5) Uds (1) and (2) 1st because they are hurdle races otherwise Douvan would head the list. I have omitted VVM in the Mares race as its participation is still not definitive. |
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With the CH candidates falling like flies might JP think about supplementing Yaworth. Would have to have as good a chance in it as in the Neptune imo
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Bosseur franked the form of a toi phil today winning the big race at auteuil the graded prix jugne hurdle Over 2m2f
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I think A Toi Phil is one of the darkest horses at the whole festival.
Has run in races WPM likes to run good onesin, has won well, his form looks good. And barely gets a mention anywhere! One of the ew bets of the week for me as can't have him out of the frame and I think Yanworth is going to need to be very good to beat him |
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whats going on with a toi phil? mullins not mentioned him for the Neptune in his column in the rp today and weak on here ! anyone know anything ?
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I was wondering the same, foyles. I know there was talk of a disappointing bit of work but have heard nothing concrete since.
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don't look promising
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Giggy's other one - Bello Conti has been smashed up, so maybe that's their preferred one? Also trained by Mullins
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According to what i was told a week ago, Bello conti is/was very likely to go bartlett with Balko des flos joining a toi phil in the neptune..
But I backed bello conti for both nrnb just incase |
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Atp Was said last night to be be working very well leading up to the neptune by Patrick mullins last night.
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