Cheltenham Festival
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Neptune Novice hurdle 2016
Neptune Novice hurdle 2016
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I'm with you Duffy. After his last start before this weekend I watched the bumper back about 6 times. He had a horrendous journey towards the end and wasn't running as a stayer, like Modus did, he just didn't get the gaps when they were needed.
If you actually take modus as an example, he ended up getting a dream passage from the back up the inside rail as they came round the home turn. |
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No doubt he has speed for 2M but they want him to be slicker over hurdles first. Now has proven stamina, makes sense to go Neptune at this stage.
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Tory
Absolutely, Modus, Moon Racer and Wait For Me all had the dream inside run with nothing in their way and were full of momentum swinging in, Yanworth had carted McCoy into the race but was wider out and at the crucial point had both Theo's charm and Au Quart De Tour falling back into his lap. McCoy half took a pull looking for room and it cost him lengths and momentum struggling to get him repositioned before it was too late, Modus however did race like your stereotypical stayer as where you had Yanworth tank into the race Modus had to come from further back with the jockey having to get at him to do so and was very strong at the end. |
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Paddies cut Bellshill and pushed out Yorkhill for the Deloitte on Sunday, so it could be Tombstone vs Bellshill.
This could be one hell of a race and have big implications in the Supreme and Neptune. This race has a recent history of putting up big performances in both the Supreme and Neptune (Windsor Park, Nichols Canyon, Vautour, Champagne Fever, Oscars Well...) |
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Like both the giggins horses.
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WILLIE MULLINS may train four of the first five in the betting for the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle, but stable jockey Ruby Walsh believes impressive Trials Day winner Yanworth will prove difficult to beat at the Cheltenham Festival.
Walsh, the top jockey in Festival history, will ride a host of leading fancies this year but he is not confident that he will be winning the opening race on day two having followed Yanworth home aboard Shantou Village on Saturday. "I thought Yanworth was very good in the Neptune Trial. He travelled with unbelievable ease and jumped relatively well. The way he quickened from the last was eye-catching. He will be difficult to beat in the Neptune," said Walsh. Deloitte for Bellshill Walsh has a number of options in the Neptune but looks likely to ride second favourite Bellshill, who is set to put his unbeaten record over hurdles on the line in Saturday's Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown. "Bellshill worked well yesterday and goes for the Deloitte at Leopardstown," Walsh said in his Racing UK blog. Emphasising just how impressive Yanworth had been, he added: "Bellshill will have to be in good form this weekend and even more so in a few weeks' time to beat Yanworth." Bellshill is a top price of 5-2 with Betway for Saturday's Grade 1, but is as short as 11-8 with Paddy Power, while he is a best-priced 4-1 second-favourite for the Neptune with Betway and Betfred. |
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A pleasing report for Yanworth backers, eh CCM?
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Very Des! BJG cant hear of him being beaten.
I have to say he's starting to look like the banker of the week... Ordinarily I wouldn't be looking at 2/1 and thinking its great value at this stage, but when you look at the prices of Min, Douvan, Faugheen, Thistlecrack, Limini etc all shorter, it doesn't look so bad. |
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Agreed. Normally I might be tempted to take my stake back at this point, but I'm actually thinking of going in again.
Can't believe he's a bigger price than Min! |
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I got a few quid more on at 3-1 and 11-4 post race so feeling happy enough with that!
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Confirmed today that Yanworth's only festival entry is for the Neptune
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Very confident me thinks !!!
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Scooby
That novice hurdle that ATP won, I was looking last night, in the last 10 years it has thrown up 2 AB winners, 2 Neptune winners and numerous placed horses from both races, last year it provided the winner of 3 festival races and a 3rd from last year, I backed KV on the back of his run in it last year, not after-timing  , I put a thread up before the MP was run Even more importantly I think is that in 4 of the last 6 years Mullins has run a horse in it that went on to be his main runner in either of the 2 longer novice races and if Sure Reef hadn't had a set back he may have been another. It is a top class trial. Conversely despite what we may think, the Deloitte, apart from last year where it provided the 1st and 3rd in the Neptune, in the last 10 years it has only managed 2 place horses in the Neptune. |
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Thanks for that Duffy, the race certainly has a great cheltenham record.
A toi phil has a racing post rating of 151. Not sure when he will get an official mark. He'd have a decent chance where ever he goes, assuming neptune, yanworth will be very hard to beat. He's certainly in the mix though and I wouldnt be at all suprised if he improved again, |
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With a bit of luck yanworth scares Willy and Giggi off a la thistlecrack has with VVM! ATP rating will be touch and go for getting in MP and if he's a proper neptune horse he'd have 10lbs+ in hand off his mark to go vlose in MP. They'd have to be tempted, especially with Willie saying he's only looked like a racehorse last time out. Could still be very raw and one for the future to not be bottomed in a grade 1. The second from his last win has been given 132. Does that mean ATP won't be assessed until much nearer the time?
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Isn't the MP a 0-140? He'll get more than that Shirley?
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Top weight le mercury raced off of 145 in it last year, conversely KV was off of 135!!
I personally think that ATP will be in the upper 140's, I don't think they'll run him in it, reckon AB has equal a chance as Neptune though, mullins hasn't won it and giggins were mob handed in the race last year. |
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Don't you think that you're perhaps getting a bit carried away with A Toi Phil? I think you'll find that he's way down the Closutton pecking order.
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It's easy for us to overlook him because he's not been one of the buzz horses all year, but as there are several it is easy for us to look past some, this time last year few had KV marked down as a festival contender and you'd have said the exact same thing about getting carried away with him. Mullins running him in that race and his performance as well as comments from Mullins stating he'll be in one of the novice races suggests to me he isn't too far down the pecking order, particularly for the AB from within the yard.
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ATP surely Neptune bound given the money after lto?
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Maybe Yanworth has changed things a bit, Bellshill, Yorkhill Long Dog, PM are all in the Neptune mix too, how many darts do they want to throw at Yanworth and potentially waste? They look way weaker in the AB and ATP looks as if 3 miles will be no problem to him.
Look at the difference from his last two runs going up in trip, he was very strong at the end last time. |
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A lot will depend on what Bellshill does on Saturday if he runs? As the earlier poster mentioned I was thinking ATP as a possible for the Martin Pipe but like others have said he'll probably be too high, in fact you could see Phil Smith giving him 146 as if to say feck off!
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Agreed and PM is on 145 too, having said that it doesn't mean they're still not well in compared to their relevant ability.
The Neptune is fascinating now with for once the boot being on the other foot with Mullins "potentially" playing catch up to a very impressive market leader, let's see how they play it out, as john says, Bellshill at the weekend will be very interesting, I think Tombstone will give him plenty to think about myself. |
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Yanworth was very impressive on Saturday but was Shantou Village at his best? Plus till the festival we won't truly have a handle on the form of the Irish novices vs the British novices at the moment its just opinions and to the eye Yanworth sets the standard.
The Bellshill, Tombstone clash is going to be pivotal, I'm firmly in the Bellshill camp and hope he enhances his claims but respect Tombstone, especially at the intermittent trip. |
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racing post strongly suggesting shantou village neptune bound
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No quotes though. Trainer suggested that if looks like being dry to the Friday SV would go Bartlett
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Can anyone see Shantou Village reversing the form?
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Neil mulholland said if rain is due after wednesday he will go neptune. If it's not soft he'll go bartlett.
If it's soft all week he will keep him for aintree. Correct roobuck |
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either very irresponsible reporting by rp or trainer has had a rethink - and correct no quotes
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well no quotes saying going to neptune - there are quotes about not handling the ground - and obviously wanting better ground in march
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I live just down the road from Neil mulholland yard, not sure he'd appreciate me popping in to ask though.
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fortune favours the brave - nothing ventured an all that - he might think you're showing enterprise - take some carrots
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If you are popping down scooby, can you ask him about his runner in the 3.50 at Chepstow tomorrow as well please
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A bit of pocket talking I accept, but given OK ground, SV's best chance is AB. No chance of reversing form with Yanworth imo
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Difficult to see how Shantou Village can reverse form with Yanworth in the Neptune on any ground. He was the horse backed at the off on Saturday and he pretty much confirmed his form with Champers On Ice, so whilst he will improve in March, the yard obviously expected him to run his race. He stayed on pretty well in atrocious ground and I suspect that is the best piece of form we have seen with the Bartlett in mind. Whilst the ground might be soft in March, it is hard to imagine it being as slow as that.
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not what the trainer has said - he said they were pretty sure he wouldnt handle the ground but wanted to see - and now they know - its not always yard money
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I live just down the road from his ma and da Will i pop in and ask them
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Warren great Rex gave MA DU FOU some mention for the neptune earlier seemed to quite fancy him and he's going for the sidney banks or the listed race at Exeter next.
Must admit I'd never heard of the horse but on closer inspection if his form his last 2 races look pretty good. Put a few quid on at 360.0 |
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Yanworth just sighted smoking a cigar out of his stable window.
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Bellshill surely won't be winning anything at Cheltenham, in fact on that running may not turn up?
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