Cheltenham Festival
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Neptune Novice hurdle 2016
Neptune Novice hurdle 2016
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Replies: 276
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How do you upload screen shots on here?
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Agree Satrus!
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I'd imagine a few of horses who were wavering towards Neptune purely to steer away from Min will now be having second thoughts. Without doubt the most impressive novice performance of the season.
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I hope shantou goes albert bartlett now as would have a very good chance.
Depending on how townshend gets on in the week, unlikely but if he bolted up he could possibly be neptune bound with long dog stepping up to the bartlett. |
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Oh yeah, I managed to shout to Geraghty so he could hear me whilst on his way back in (partially tongue in cheek but I do say partially), "You're sat on a Champion Hurdler there Barry", his response was to produce a very large grin
 King thinks he might be the best he's ever trained. Time to hype something up that doesn't run in pale pink for a change! |
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I think JP might still have a Supreme horse in Modus.
He's been campaigned quietly to get his mark for the Betfair with the plan I'm sure to try and do a MTOY, bolt up there and go to the Festival opener. |
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I was going to post something similar earlier but when I looked it up I realized MTOY hosed up off a rating of 149 in the Betfair under a motionless AP (and still got beat in the Supreme). Modus is 139 so would need to be massively impressive, don't think his defeat in a swimming pool at Taunton is relevant but Charmix hardly franked his form today (although I don't think Fry's horses are running great at the mo').
So whilst I agree that is probably the plan Modus looks more Regal Encore than MTOY to me just now. |
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Very nice performance. My only slight issue is that the ground was heavy. Was he the one relishing it? I'm not sure the others were and such ground often brings about large margin victories done cosily for those who act best on the ground.
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Satrus,
You mentioned the Churdle.....was available at 50 yesterday(SKY)for next year. |
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Just checked.........14 now!!
Sorry!!! |
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sts - i was laughing at your neighbour thinking someone was dead - made me laugh thats all
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No worries ms, as soon as i pressed the submit button i realised that was maybe what you were referring to
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Made me laugh as well.....and the bit about the cat
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You got me going mad there Buddeliea with 50/1. Loaded Skybet straight up.
Then I saw your second post  |
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yeh I know,really sorry I posted now,was trying to help but backfired
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No problem found it quite funny
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No chance he's going supreme now. We know they were concnerned about going quick over 2m on good ground and Saturday didn't change that but did show they don't have to worry about ground or trip. He has got enough speed to not worry about tactics in a neptune too. He's the one to beat now.
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With Yanworth's exhilarating display over the weekend, and reputation of 2nd 'fav' Bellshill, could Buveur D'air be rerouted here despite its latest easy win? The horse is absolutely friendless in the Supreme market. Or could it be saved for Aintree?
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Shame if they are worried about going quick over 2 miles. wouldn't be a worry IMO, his performance over the weekend only goes to highlight his quality and that yes, Neptune won't be a problem, it doesn't suggest that he couldn't handle the 2 mile pace, just a quality horse all round.
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Matt Chapman says stick it in the Champion Hurdle.
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Probably a bit strong, but it seems that the consensus is CH next year, so by definition pace isn't a question, so why not run in the speed test this year.
I also get that the Neptune gives CH horses as well as Supreme does, but if he's got the pace, I think they wanted to avoid Min, but after the week-end I they still as scared? |
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Yanworth's performance the other day is a long way, the best novice hurdle performance this year, over any distance.
However, I think we've only scratched the surface of Bellshill's ability, so I'm looking forward to seeing him in a proper race. Maybe that'll be the Deloitte against the likes of Tombstone, or will he be saved for Cheltenham? Those on big Yanworth tickets, well done. I thought about taking the any race bet for a while but never. However, those lumping on at around 2's now, I would want to see what Bellshill is capable of yet before taking that sort of price. I think he is a good ew price at 4's because I couldn't see him outside of the top 3 personally. A lot of those in the betting look like they won't turn up here - Tombstone, Barters Hill, Shantou Village, Yorkhill, Min; so I think the 4's on Bellshill is a decent bet. |
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I think the weekend proved BJG is spot on about the horse. He has speed but stays really well. The Neptune is the perfect race for the horse. The only reason he would go for the CH is that there isn't a prestigious option over two and a half miles, whereas the Supreme and the Neptune are comparable.
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A lot of stayer have won the Supreme in recent years,and a lot of Neptune winners have gone on to run well in the CHurdle.
So the speed test is not always the supreme. As far as Yanworth is concerned,he's proved capable of running huge races in both Imo,he can only run in one,so why not the one his jockey has said all along is best suited to him,and the one at the distance he has just produced his best display at. From what I have seen this season,I think he would win either race. |
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Spot on bud. I think BJG knows better than any of us. Especially those with Supreme vouchers
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not so good on those of us with Yanworth tickets for the Supreme @chief but I do agree about Bellshill and I also have him flagged as something special. I have wondered who should Yanworth take on, Altior or Bellshill. I think if the latter puts a good performance in the Deloitte then Yanworth's camp should reconsider but thats purely pocket talking as from a spectacle pov I thought the Supreme will be one for the ages and now I think the Neptune will be just the same, Long Dog Yanworth Bellshill A Toi Phil.
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Alan king already said yesterday evening he goes neptune so there's no point what so ever discussing yanworth for the supreme. Unlucky anyone who backed for just the supreme but In all of alan king stable tours he said was likely to be stepped up in trip later in the season
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I've been a big fan of Yanworth for the Supreme ever since the bumper, hadn't backed him as it's hard for me to shell out early doors.
Right now at 40+ on here I'm going to have a speculative few quid on him for the Supreme and realize I'm up against it but my thinking is, they wanted to see if he'd stay because they were worried about Min, I'm banking on and needing a similar performance from Bellshill when he runs next. Hopefully they'll then think, well if Min wasn't running we'd be in the Supreme regardless and probably wouldn't have even carried out the experiment at the weekend, we've now got an equally scary looking Bellshill so why not revert back to the first route and use that speed knowing we haven't got to worry about the stamina at the end. Reaching I know now, but like that sort of speculative bet, plus we're talking about Mcmanus, so it's a possible. |
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Duffy. I honestly think you are over thinking this. BJG has always said the horse will be better over two and a half miles. They've stepped him up, and he produced the best piece of form of his career. It's the most straight forward decision for everyone!
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I'd be shocked if Yanworth ran in the Supreme, after Saturdays performance it wouldn't make any sense? Can't think of too many horses running over 2.5m returning to the Supreme? I think they where looking to try and avoid Min and try the trip, so surely all systems go the Neptune.
Scooby great book for the race, if you haven't got the winner backed then surely we'd all have to give up? |
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'scooby'
Let's hope the Festival is not abandoned due to adverse weather conditions then. |
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Won a few quid on Thistlecrack at the weekend and with my stake on shantou and barters hill going over to the bartlett I'm deliberating covering buveur dair for the neptune, another mention from connections or henderson or soon as I see an entry for 2m4 I'll be straight on it.
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Backed Buveir Dair right at the start of the season any race at 20s so as long as he runs at the fez i'll be quite happy but the fact that he is 30 and being laid at 32 in the neptune and pretty friendless at the moment in the supreme, i am getting quite worried. Though to be fair, it could be market repair for want of a better word, Altior has also drifted a little and Min went to 3 on Saturday.
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STS who knows with Henderson?I have backed Buveir as well in any race market and w-out Min.
Fingers crossed after last run he stated wanted another run before festival. |
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I think Yanworth will be no shorter on the day than he is now. 2/1 is a crazy price 7 weeks out - he has to get there too. That aside, what's not to like? Assuming he arrives fit and well, he is the one everything else has to beat. He has had a perfect prep for the Festival and I have similar feelings about this horse going into the race that I had about Barton and Simonsig.
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Yanworth has been given a rating of 158, higher than when Faugheen (152) won in 2014.
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Duffy, write your supreme ticket off mate and take it on the chin. It happens to all of us. Amazed how anyone could have picked supreme over neptune watching last year's bumper.
King said it was stepping up long before he'd probably even heard of Min. |
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benk - totally agree re last years bumper - however a few mitigating factors - on more than one occasion he said the horse was showing a lot more speed than last year and also this was what he said after the run 18th Dec 'I dont see any reason to go farther with him., so unless the boys say different we'll be looking at the supreme'. I suspect many may have pressed the supreme button at that point. There may have been posters that said straight after dec race - take no notice of the trainer he will definitely run in the neptune - if so well played. I backed him any race predominantly so am relatively unscathed however have a lot of sympathy for those that were swayed towards supreme.
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benkneale03 Joined: 28 Jan 12
Replies: 82 02 Feb 16 15:08 It happens to all of us. Amazed how anyone could have picked supreme over neptune watching last year's bumper. I'll explain it to you, the horse travelled into the race hard on the steel at a busy part of the race when the pace was quickening, then when the final push came just before the home straight IMO McCoy was caught napping,I actually think he thought that the horse was travelling so easily he didn't need to do much, when (although the horse had travelled there well) he needed to start to get after the horse in the race to the line. It cost the horse a few lengths and lost momentum, the second McCoy got after him he picked up and ran right to the line, he did not perform as a horse who lacked pace because he wouldn't have travelled into the race like he did and he wouldn't have been able to pick up as well as he did after losing momentum. After Saturday, along with his position in the Neptune market he is now being talked about as a viable CH contender for next year so the pace issue is not a question is it? Yes he'll run in the Neptune but let's not pretend he hasn't got the pace for the Supreme this year but will have for the CH next year...he stays the Neptune but he has got bundles of toe IMO. Watch the Bumper again, I can't believe that anyone thinks he was genuinely outpaced. |