Cheltenham Festival
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SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE 2016
SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE 2016
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Replies: 296
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Paddy is the Ruby connection for Mullins. Giggi is Elliot and Cooper.
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Good luck delsie. I think the paddy knows your referring to is a line to the wp mullins yard.
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Just saying boys - haven't you ever flown Giggair! Not sure it makes much odds where he goes to be fair - Min wins the Supreme and I don't think the Long Dog form is all that, so I'll take whichever 'Hill' Mullins runs in the Neptune over Tombstone. Barters Hill might be a danger if he runs in it rather than the AB.
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Long Dog for me everytime against Tombstone, has at least 5 pounds in hand and will be kept fresh for Chelt. Seeing him win the Supreme or the Bingham wouldn't be a surprise, in fact I hope his price will stand after the target is announced so I can put the saver on him.
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The forgotten horse seems to be Buveur Dair - has he been entered for an alternative race as well? I understand its trainer already has the current 2nd 'fav' but this horse was impressive in beating a highly regarded recruit to jumping which started odd-on.
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Buveur dair has no entries and henderson said he may run in the dovecote in the middle of February. My worry for buveur dair is if you look through his form he had ran well on soft ground, like against barters hill the first time with altior 2 lengths behind giving away a fair bit of weight, all altior best form is on better ground.
When buveur dair came up against barters hill again on gd to soft he was beaten into 4th along way with potters corner infront. |
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scooby
Good ground could inconvenienced Buveur D'air somewhat however I think Buveur D'air is a better prospect over jumps, the same with Min, Bellshill, Yanworth, etc, over their conquerors on the flat. Its current price is also conducive to an 'investment' too! |
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One thing ive noticed with Buvair Dair is his price on here has stayed steady since we last saw him. Unlike the others around him in the market which can only bode well for prospects and target. Usually when a horse hasn't been sited in such a long time or talked of and gets forgotten for whatever reason its price reflects this all money wanting to back disappears and it gradually 'drifts' a little but not this fella.
Whether that means anything or not though is another thing entirely  On at 20s any race though so just hope he runs somewhere at the fez  |
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Too early to say conclusively after just one start. You may be right, and if your money's down good luck.
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There is no value any more in Min despite getting on @5/1 in a big way with singles, doubles and trebles, and with Maputo out and Altior not really a viable option for me needs to find value elsewhere prior to March; the position with Yanworth in the Supreme does not help either.
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Delsie
Tombstone very well supported in the supreme. And pushed out by most in the neptune and 1 of those is paddies you'll be glad to know. |
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Inevitable after O'Leary's comments, scoob. Rest assured he'll be in the Neptune, mate - they know what they're doing - why take on Min?
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Because they aren't scared of taking on hype horses? Min has done everything asked of him so far, but he's yet to prove he's unbeatable and I think O'Leary will relish the challenge of taking him on.
Especially when they have Petit Mouchoir and Disko who both look better staying types and likely Neptune horse. |
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CCM - the hype horses as you call them have done ok so far, haven't they? Vautour, Faugheen, UDS, Douvan? I think Petit Mouch is Martin Pipe bound and Disko just aint anywhere near.
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Imo no one is going to be scared of taking on WM/RR horses this year, simply because they like me and probably most people think that what happened last year was a fluke event in him winning so many of the top races. Broke a record didn't he? It's really not likely to happen twice is it
 ??I think on that alone, the Supreme at least will be a very competitive race and the books will be out in force trying to get the jolly beat! I fully expect 2/1 Min on the day  and will check back here if i am right |
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Yes of course they did delsie, but do you think a fella like O'Leary will now avoid any race a WPM short priced fav is in then?
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I think your wrong there delsie disko is a certainty for the neptune imo, and I think petit mouchoir was a big eye catcher for me last time out, he wasn't knocked about on only his 3rd career start, one for the future for sure.
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I'm new to the conditions of most races hence may I ask why the likes of Peace and Co, Top Notch, Hargam, etc, were not entered for the Supreme instead of the Triumph last year but are now entered for the Champion Hurdle? If they did, I'm fairly certain Douvan might not have won the race, certainly not as easily as he had done!
Despite no value in backing Min now there really is little to recommend from the other Irish contingent and not much else too from the British ones I believe. |
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Impossible- they were in Triumph because that is for 4yo novices (though they could have entered Supreme and I would have loved to have seen PAC serve it up to Douvan... Of course, we could just ask NJH to compare L'ami serge and PAC!)
Does anyone know what's happening with Supasundae.. i quite like this horse but cant find any news/plans for him...??? |
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impossible. The Triumph is limited to 4 year old novices.... whilst the Supreme is just for Novices. So if you have a 4 year old like P&C, you could run in the Supreme but would be taking on older horses.
All of the Triumph and Supreme runners from last year are now no longer novices, hence they all go into open company. |
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* 4yo novices (ie juveniles)
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Harvester, thank for the info.
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Regarding Tombstone, I imagine they aren't 100% sure themselves until he runs in the Deloitte. They are clearly going to learn a lot that day.
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Peace and co top notch hargam were juveniles (4yo) and therefore they have the option to go in the juvenile races which is the triumph hurdle.
It's very rare that a juvenile goes for the supreme or any of the grade 1 novice events. As the triumph although is usually larger in numbers, the quality In 95% of years would not be as good as the supreme. And the horses in the supreme usually have more experiance over hurdles usually coming from a point to point background or running in bumpers(national hunt flat races). Assuming you know what they are? |
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Not necessarily CCM - but the minute he earmarked the Supreme I fancied him to go to the Neptune - just the way they operate. There of course, he will have other Mullins hotpots to deal with - but Tombstone is not a 2 miler. Never looked like it, never will be and they know it. If he was he would have picked up Long Dog and spat him out. Someone was saying that Paddy doesn't have a line to Giggy horses - this is of course the case. But perhaps they know how far down the Mullins pecking order Long Dog is?
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Juveniles(4yo's) can run directly in the CH if they have obtained a rating of 130 and will have an 8lb allowance, but that is considered unwise with all the novice races available and also a dedicated juvenile race in which they could run.
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4 year olds running in the Supreme brings back memories for me. Backed Binocular at big prices for the Triumph ante post only for them to go the supreme (think JP had just bought the triumph favourite which is why he went supreme) where he was a close 2nd to Captain Cee Bee. History suggests if he had run in the triumph he would have hacked up
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Thanks everyone for the info - I'm much wiser now, hopefully.
I liked this a lot! "Tombstone is not a 2 miler....If he was he would have picked up Long Dog and spat him out." "Someone was saying Paddy doesn't have a line to Giggy horses" My question is are you sure? I thought WPM gallops them against one another (a rehearsal) prior to a race they are entered in. |
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Tombstone's an Elliot horse
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The Supreme is not always won by '2milers' in fact it is truer that a typical neptune winner is more than likely to go on and compete well in the next seasons churdle than the supreme winner.
Said it earlier on in this thread and it didn't warrant any reply to so left it as being obvious to you guys and being polite didn't respond as in a typical supreme winner is a stayer with speed unlike last couple years where winner (WM/RW) has been allowed to dictate. Am not saying that the Neptune is any different of course it cannot be but there must be a reason for why this happens most years. Had this debate every year however for about the last 5 lol. |
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Walsh isn't concerned by the way he pulled his way through the first half of Saturday's contest, believing such enthusiasm will stand him in good stead on better ground at the Festival in March.
"He took a fair old hold," said Walsh, "but I suppose on heavy ground you're trying to slow a horse down so they do get home, where as on good ground you'd be going fast so you wouldn't be so worried about slowing down. "He jumped really well, he travelled super, probably too well, and he quickened up ahead of the last, pinged the last and won comfortably." Min had been towards the top of the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle betting before he'd even had a race for Mullins, but Walsh indicated they'd thought for a while that they had another talented horse on their hands. He said: "We had him this time last year and he was working well. He won the schooling hurdle at Thurles last March and for a pretty inexperienced horse we thought it was pretty good work." Gordon Elliott will be one of the trainers trying to get Min beaten in the Sky Bet Supreme and he could run Tombstone against Mullins' hotpot at the Festival. In his **** blog, Elliott said: "My only concern over him would be that he seems a bit keen and that looked the case on Saturday. "I have no doubt that he'll settle better in a better race though and he still looked very good so he remains the horse we all have to beat at the minute for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham." |
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delsie. The irony is, that I posted after the Future Champions saying I thought Tombstone was outpaced coming off the final bend and looked an ideal Neptune type to me. The further they went, the closer he was getting, and considering that was also on heavy ground, he looks likely to improve for the step up. Which I still think myself, and if he was mine, Id be aiming him at the Neptune.
But then O'Leary and Elliot said what they did, and I sense they are keen to take Min on tbh. I don't really buy the fact they are looking to put people away by saying he is still their Supreme horse, if he isn't. You mention the Wounded Warrior example, but are there countless other examples of them doing this? I find them fairly transparent tbh. It all comes down to what other horses they have at the end of the day, and splitting up their horses to have runners in each race. Of all their novices, Tombstone looks the likeliest for the Supreme and I would be surprised if they didnt have a runner in the race. |
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Walsh told Racing UK: "He was very good, but he's probably as short as he is owing to the reputation of the connections the last couple of years, is there much value in that? I wouldn't think so and in all honesty come the day he's probably going to be longer than he is at this minute in time.
"If he was going to be a Supreme Novices' horse he was going to have to win and win the way he did. I don't think he's done anymore than Yanworth, Altior and what those sort of horses have done." |
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If you really want to know what Ruby thought of Min - look at his face after the race when he was interviewed. Tells you a lot more than the stuff he tells to RUK. What do you expect him to say? That he's gonna hose up?
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I'm surprised Ruby Walsh did not echo the same comment about Faugheen; 4/7 is an absurd price having been beaten, and with several new participants in the race; the friends of RR in the City will back Min whilst others won't.
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If Min,Tombstone,Yanworth,Yorkhill and Altior all run we are in for a heck of a race.
Just hope they all do turn up,be a great start to the festival. |
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Delsie - he doesnt have to say he is going to hose up he just needs to say i think his price is about right - the fact that he has chosen to say something very different means one of two things - 1) he is telling the truth and he doesnt think the price is justified or 2) he is lying - to me it seems totally unnecessary for him to lie but hey ho
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Pretty hard to argue with what Ruby says isn't it? Hype is one thing, but on everything we've seen on a racecourse, he hasn't done any more than others he mentioned. As budd says, just telling it how it is surely?
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Gordon Elliot on Tombstone -
"I think he's a good horse. I still have to decide going to Cheltenham whether he'll go two miles or further, but he came out of the race well and we are looking forward to learning more the next day |
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I'm pretty sure no decision will have been made now anyway; so punters, trainer and owner are all speculating. I am convinced he is a Supreme horse, and the comments the other day gave me the nudge to put my money down. I do understand though that plans can change in a matter of seconds.
The Deloitte will tell us more; mainly 1) is he good enough? 2) can he settle better? If he is in the top 2 and pulls half the way round then I think it'll be Supreme. In the last six runnings of the Delloite, 3 have gone Supreme (Vautour, Champagne Fever, Dunguib) and 3 have gone Neptune (Nichols Canyon, Benefficient, Oscars Well). Therefore the bare result may not say what race he'll go in, more how he runs imo. |