yeh I guess you are right joist re stupid comments,I just get annoyed when all I want is a sensible discussion.

Anyway,I don't think I will ever be a person that backs a horse cos of connections comments,particularly an owner!!what on earth is that all about??
Trainers? Yeh some I listen to !some I even take note of,but more often than not just plain old looking at horses on the track.

Miltons has a good point there by the way.

Miltons Sophie - That seems to imply that there is no overlap between the act of backing a horse before it shortens, and getting a bigger price than its relative chance of winning the race - when obviously there is overlap.

You say "true value" disappeared weeks ago...do you have an example? Are you citing Min? Surely as we move closer to the race time, the very fact that the horse is more likely to line up now than it was "weeks ago" (due to time having elapsed and less time to become a NR) means the price now can very well still be "true value" or even better value than the price of weeks ago depending on how it has changed?

Irrespective of the above, there is no concrete determiner for the horse's actual chance of winning a race hence the idea of "value" being in the eye of the beholder. Arguably, the closest approximation of the true chance of a horse in a race is it's SP, right? That's when the market is strongest, has been formed longest, and we have the clearest picture from a betting perspective, and if you're constantly beating SP day to day then that's when the bookies will factor your account suggesting you're not a good long term proposition for them. Therefore, to obtain "true value" is surely to beat SP, and that can be done either by backing a horse because you genuinely believe it's current antepost odds are likely bigger than SP, or backing a horse because you foresee the current antepost price shortening. Therefore, "getting value" is legitimately done either way imo.

There is the point that if Min didnt exist its more than likely a WM horse would still be fav for the Supreme and if the stable believes Min is their best then you have your answer re his price. In addition the bookies are scared of the WM combination bets hence the poor odds about some of his runners.

Miltons

I took your post to mean that you didn't think backing a horse before it shortens should be considered getting "true value". Perhaps that's a misreading on my part, curse text's inability to convey tone!

i hope you are right joist but we had douvan, lets say min wins - what price do you reckon their next one will be once theyve said they like it - and then imagine how difficult it will be to have anything like a sensible conversation about novice hurdlers. I cannot tell you how much i want it to be a short term purple patch

Re your response concerning value - beating the book and value are two different things. They are related as clearly if you beat the book you are more likely to have value - however being related again makes them similar but not the same. Of course value on one level is subjective but on another it is real as there is a real statistical chance of winning a race and there are real odds - its just subjective because we dont actually know what they are we just have opinions

Plus there is no such concept as 'Value' in Gambling that you harp on about it is a myth - Scotch Mist - Gambling is by it's very nature reckless and valueless - the horse could tread on a stone tomorrow morning and that would be that.

ekbalco - good luck to you - i and i am sure many people are jealous - not only being able to see the horses work but have all the data points to compare to previous winners clearly puts you in an incredibly privileged position. Please understand the rest of us mortals are trying to make a few quid the hard way so forgive me for wishing Budd just a little more luck

People are making a mistake if they believe WMs success is solely down to the RR owned horses. Ignoring the RR winners he has still trained more festival winners than any other trainer since 2009. Everything comes to an end eventually but WM is more than likely to dominate for quite some time.

Forgive me if i am wrong, but i am sure i was reading posts from Ekbalco last season about the last fez where he talked about  being in this priveledged position of being able to talk to connections and watch horses work of a totally different yard altogether

I really cannot start backing horses cos an owner says he's the next Pegasus,and I cannot do the same cos someone I don't know says he watches the horses working.
If Min wins so be it,but it won't change my attitude.
If it carried on this way for a few more years,I would still look elsewhere,and should I not see any other horse I think worth backing I will simply leave the race alone,and look at the other 20 odd races.
Whatever your ways,I wish you all luck. We all need it however we decide on how to back a horse.

Given the public info available about the British contingent eg Altior, Yanworth, plus one or two others Min does look 'good' winning without breaking sweat in its only race so far; if Min was to win the Moscow Flyer tomorrow with his head in his chest the price of Min will be nearer even money given the record of trainer/owner in the Supreme.

That was electric, and one can crab the opposition til the cows come home but the way the race panned out, but I thought that was really impressive. Jumped as slick as any novice you'll see, completely took off with Ruby after the first few furlongs, and rounding the home turn as the Gigginstown horses closed up I feared the worst, but he powered clear again under minimal encouragement from Ruby.

This is a fair beast, marrying up stable vibes with track performances, Min is a rightful Supreme fav imo. The worry, or perhaps the straw that opponents can cling to, is that he'll need to keep a lid on that mid-race enthusiasm; a similar thing happened on debut. Realistically though, the typical pace of a Supreme should ensure that Min settles better and I can't wait for him to come there swinging turning in.

That 25/1 input up on here in September  not looking to shabby now.  Anyone that took the 7s after his win on debut, fair play to you also. Can't wait to see yorkhill out again next backed him at 32.0 for supreme too and I'm expecting him to be the main danger, hoping he will quicken up nicely on the better ground. Because he travelled supremely well in the tolworth

Scooby, give your mouse click button a wipe imo

That makes it a no bet race for me now.

No way could I back him at 7/4, but in the back of my mind, he could be a superstar and you're chucking money away from him trying to find something else.

Because these novices very rarely run against each other, you can only really go off visuals, and he did look good today.  What he beat, I'm not so sure, but I can't see anything in England that screams out to me, so you're relying on a Wylie runner, probably with Townend on as main opposition.

William Hill is 1/1 whereas Racebets is 2/1; these bookmakers are supposed to be advised by 'experts' in the field yet the 100% discrepancy.

Hills and Racebets, being different companies, have totally different liabilities in their books so completely understandable if they're such different prices imo.

Been impressed with Yanworth mate, but the worry is the Neptune.  He might be a play on the day if he lines up.

Not particularly sold on Altior to be honest.  I actually flagged him up on here at 25's after he won at Chepstow in October, but I think he is purely at the place in the market because of lack off depth, rather than him blowing the opposition away.  I think he was a bit fortunate that Maputo got injured at Cheltenham when he beat him, and he was off the bridle a bit too easily for me at Kempton.

Yanworth available at 9 any race,worth a go if you like him and worried about which race I reckon.

Re Altior, I quiet like horses that respond in the way he did,he's gonna be a powerful finisher up that hill I think.