Cheltenham Festival
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Min
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I've the exact same bet DO! Talked myself into Yanworth in the Supreme at 12's as well but agree that I'd rather see him in the Neptune.
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I can never bring myself to back the same horse in two different races CCM, just feels like I'm halving the price.
Cracked logic maybe, but I'd rather have a nonner at 16/1, then effectively 8/1 about a horse winning either race. I don't particularly like Yanworth for the Supreme anyway, his run in the Bumper last year screamed stayer to me and though he has looked quick beating a load of trees so far, I don't know if he will be quick enough for a Supreme, the ultimate speed test. Looks tailor-made for the Neptune where he can use his high cruising speed and stamina to just run away from slower horses in the style of Faugheen or TNO. Plus, the barking dogs may well be right again and Min is the real deal. |
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Min in the Supreme would not be a 'certainty' even if it was to trounce his opponents in the Moscow Flayer this saturday; Yanworth, Yorkhill and Altior are worthy opponents, and their stamina up the Cheltehnam hill will see them in good stead against Min's speed.
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Min looked very good at punchestown but its only the price he is because of the Mullins/Ricci/Ruby factor. I have a small bet on Min at 12's but I certainly wouldn't take the current price of 11/4.
I am waiting to hear about Moon Racer. If fit and well, and I know at this stage it's a big if, then il dive onto 16's if I can get it, or even lower. |
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Min looked very good at punchestown but its only the price he is because of the Mullins/Ricci/Ruby factor. I have a small bet on Min at 12's but I certainly wouldn't take the current price of 11/4.
I am waiting to hear about Moon Racer. If fit and well, and I know at this stage it's a big if, then il dive onto 16's if I can get it, or even lower. |
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Lads there's no point even debating any other horses in the supreme, Min is a good thing will go off Evs on the day and hack up.
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Min wins at Punchestown (albeit very impressively), price goes down to 7/1 for about a week and then the Willie/Ricci/Ruby/Sumpreme factor takes over, support follows, and price is now 11/4. Not for me. Whilst unquestionably impressive, I think there is plenty of point and reason to look elsewhere. Yanworth doesn't look like a bad bet, done well this season and ran well in the bumper last year.
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Yanworth 'by no means certain to run in the Supreme' - Alan King today. Apparently some doubt whether he goes to Cheltenham at all for some reason. Barry G going to 'have a chat with JP McManus' and then they'll make a plan.
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delsie where did you hear that? I watched the RUK interview after king had a winner today and he was leaning towards neptune. Nothing to remotely suggest Cheltenham wasn't on the cards.
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They've ruined yanworths handicap mark and jp ain't happy imo
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Sporting Life website - 'King sounds Yanworth warning'
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Min - good thing - 'nuff said.
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I think Yanworth will stay 16f well but not 20f; if one takes out Min and all its 'hype' Yanworth could be the next best in the Supreme; it would be silly to alter one's running plan on account of just one horse!
Did King not say Yanworth for the Supreme immediately post its last win? And with Modus (same ownership) bombing out I thought it would only enhance Yanworth's participation in the Supreme. Oh well, a similar scenario to Alvisio Ville seems to be developing again. |
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Delsie - there is nothing in the article that questions him going to cheltenham - where are you getting this part of you rpost from
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or are you linking the bg talking to jp and making the leap that this means there is a doubt to his chelt participation. if so thats a leap in your mind and hardly justifies the use of 'apparently' - if you have anything more concrete that would be most appreciated.
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The only thing that delsie has concrete is a big log he leaves when the shiite is coming out of his bottom , rather than this instance when its coming out of his mouth.
Of course Yanworth is going to Cheltenham, i wouldnt even bother engaging with these kind of clowns. What are they doing with him ?, keeping him for a flat maiden in Pontefract ? |
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Wow! What intellectuals we have here.
King sounds Yanworth warning Alan King has warned that leading Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle fancy Yanworth isn't certain to line up at Cheltenham. Wednesday January 6 2016, 15:37 GMT |
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Isnt certain to line up in the supreme novices he said.
You intimated that he was going to possibly miss the festival entirely. |
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delsie - i see what you have done - you have taken the high level summary that sporting life have written and taken that at face value. The thing is i cannot see how an intellectual person would come up with the same summary as they have once the article has been read. Like newspapers generally the summary is deliberately designed to be more dramatic than the reality for obvious reasons - to me there are 3 pointers from the article 1) might not run in supreme, 2) might step up in trip for chelt trial and 3) bg and jp to discuss plan. point one and 2 lend absolutely no credibility to yanworth missing chelt and so we are left with point 3 which SL have manipulated to cast doubt over whether he will run at chelt at all and you have re-enforced with your post - unless as i say you have something more concrete
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Hi MS. Nothing more - other than hearing from a bookmaker friend last week that Yanworth was available to back at big prices for either festival target. Then followed the SL article where the first signs of doubt re the target were made. So that's my position - wouldn't be for me, but that's just my opinion. Certainly didn't want to upset anyone with my post - just for info really. Anyway, according to mincer, it's not in doubt - so I bow to his superior knowledge
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Mincer doesn't post any more after asserting that Cue Card couldn't win the King George and backing up his claim with a promise to quit the forum, perhaps you're mistaken?
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ok thanks Delsie - i agree that everything went silent on the yanworth front and am not surprised that this silence led to inactivity in the market - i took this to be more about the incredible focus on WPM novices and the subsequent performance of Altior and to some extent tombstone pushing yanworth to the back of many people s minds. I hope that this is SL being deliberately provocative rather than something more significant as i think he is a horse of interest. I also would wonder if SL had put exactly the same summary had the same comments been made about say Min (just hypothetically). Personally i think there would have been uproar if they had and the SL would have been held much more accountable for what could be seen as lazy and irresponsible headline writing.
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It wasnt the moral winner Desmond, was it now ?. Only an imbecile would argue that Don Cossack wouldnt definitely have won, so i thought it unfair that i deprive the forumites due solely to ill luck
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Given that Cue Card displayed an ability to jump all of the fences, one sorely lacking in Don Cossack (not for the first time), I'm happy enough that it was both the moral and actual winner.
I'm happy you are still here, all views welcome. I just thought it showed a little chutzpah to be calling someone else for spouting sh1te. |
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Chill,.....just another six weeks plus two hours to go, and the winner of the CGC will be known by all; I for one would just like to see every runner comes back safe and sound!
Nonetheless, may the best horse win! |
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Impossible 6 weeks to go - surely thats impossible
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Run the KG again and Vautour would mirder cue card, ruby put the gun to Vautours head 4 out which in hindsight was a huge mistake,
Ruby has since admitted this, if he hangs onto him till 1 out he wins going away, simple as. |
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*Murder
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the problem for me is people seem to want it all ways. I have heard people say he wasnt fully fit and yet his jockey, one of the most respected and knowledgeable in the modern era seems to have ridden the horse as if fitness was not remotely a concern. The KG is a prestigious race and winning was a big thing i am sure so either the jockey was told he wouldnt lack for fitness (in which case he could ride the horse aggressively - (as wpm constantly tells us he lets rw decide)) or wasnt at his fittest (in which case the jockey would have ridden him accordingly). If it is the former then how can we trust implicitly that there is a great deal to come fitness wise and if it is the latter then the way he rode the horse was a mistake of astronomical proportions. I accept it is possible he made this kind of error but it is just a little hard to get my head around the fact that he could get it so wrong as cheltenhamroar is stating.
For me the likelier scenario is that the horse was fit and the jockey rode him like he was a superstar and he came up short of the jockeys expectations and that on reflection the jockey believes that he would have won if he had ridden with a little more restraint (or put another way like a mortal horse and not a machine) - but underpinning this is the possibility that he hasnt quite met the jockeys expectations which imo should at least be acknowledged as a possibility. |
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p.s. apologies i know this is a MIN thread and it has got off topic
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Back Min to win 8+ lengths.
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if we are going to be stupid,may as well let Vautour hijack the thread!!
Min has some darn good opposition from what I have seen,and to be honest......what exactly has Min done?? |
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To try to reconcile what Min has done on the track with his price is to miss the point entirely about what makes him that price. His price is a mixture of hype, homework, history, connections, and racecourse evidence. Purely what he's done is only one part of a wider picture, and those who recognised the wider picture sit on prices like 20/1, 12/1, and 6/1 for a race where the beast is now 5/2.*
To play devil's advocate (I'm not a great enthusiast of literal form lines), a crude form line through Double Island/Open Eagle gives Min the comfortable beating of Altior; so from that perspective if Altior is a fair 7/1 poke for the race then Min's price can't be far off accurate at the minute. You can crab his price all you like right now, but when he wins on Saturday as his 1/4 odds currently suggest he will, he'll go even shorter still. *Disclaimer: not a thinly veiled brag, I do not have any of these prices |
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That's a very crude line,and I suspect nowt to do with what happens in March.
Anyway I was referring to the 8 lengths comment more than anything. Oh I know all that surrounds Min and why he is the price he is. But I do think I have a fair question there though, what has he done?? |
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Of course you suspect that, because you haven't backed Min! Those who have will naturally argue the opposite.
Well, he was visually very impressive on debut in terms of those key elements for a novice of jumping and travelling, and the second has come out and won a good bumper since, beating a horse who had been backed to favouritism for the Champion Bumper beforehand. From 1 performance, I'd say you can't hope for much more than that, other than a freak Limini-like maiden hurdle where everything in behind seems to trot up afterwards. Personally, I think his form with Gurteen is about as good as anything else in the Supreme list, next to Yanworth's probably. |
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My opinion is nothing to do with bets,it's to do with what I have seen from him and others on the racetrack.
I am not saying he will or won't win the Supreme,I am saying that I have seen nothing that suggests he wins by 8 lengths,and I am also saying that I think others have been just as impressive and are much better prices. |
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Well if you're going to take every throwaway one-sentence comment like Eckbalko's as seriously worthy of in-depth discussion, then you clearly have plenty of time on your hands Budd
 No one is disagreeing that others haven't been as impressive. The fact remains though, that the others don't have the most powerful owner in the game shouting its name from the rooftops as one of their most exciting recruits. When you add that element to the racecourse performance so far, you have your explanation for Min's price. It's not hard to grasp imo. You can have a bigger price about one who has been just as impressive, sure - but you aren't getting the reassurance of Mullins/Ricci saying that your horse is the second coming, and therein lies the point of the price discussion for punters to decide whether 5/2 can be taken or left; you either lend credence to the vibes and comments from connections (as I and others do), or you don't. If you take the latter viewpoint then of course you're going to feel like 5/2 is not a good price. But there's no real point in arguing between the sides because it's basically Team A: Min backers at bigger prices, versus Team B: those who haven't backed Min, and there naturally is not going to be a common or middle ground, rendering the price topic a fairly pointless discussion. |
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Just out of interest, how come min's French form is very mediocre (about 60L behind blue dragon!) .. And then suddenly he's put in a v nice performance and is strong supreme fav?
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Would be an interesting question to any French racing anoraks!
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