Cheltenham Festival
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2016 gold cup you decide
2016 gold cup you decide
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Get a decent jockey on Don Cossack and only one winner
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Perhaps one of Don Poli's supporters could give us some idea what aspect of his form is driving their confidence? I can see why others are making cases for different horses based on their exploits on the race course but Don Poli's supporters seem more akin to followers of a cult than a horse.
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^
 are there any Don Poli supporters that use form to justify his chances? Don't think so. Its a bit of a HF debate, winning on average by 1-2 lengths and getting beat in 25% of his races but his supporters claim he's the best thats ever been because he gathered x G1s :-) cult followers is a proper description  |
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Don Poli at 5-6/1 is far too short imo and strictly on form he should be twice that price. I'd expect that he will be a bigger price on the day and RTR at 20s is much better value at 20s. I'd expect RTR to beat DP home providing he lines up.
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Your last comment is the key though trigger. Can't see Gigginstown running the two Dons and RTR in the GC and having nothing for their own race. And if those three, RTR looks the likeliest type for the Ryanair. I backed him at 16's for it last week.
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I agree that the 2 Dons will definitely go for gold. There is some doubt over RTR participation though considering he steered away from both the KG and the Lexus over Xmas. Considering his effort in finishing a close 3rd place on unsuitable ground though in last years renewal I find it hard to believe why they wouldn't go for gold again with no Coneygree and the chance of better ground. If he lines up in the Ryanair in the absence of Vautour then 16s is a massive price as he could potentially go off 2-3/1 fav but his next assignment will tell the tale. I can't believe that Noel Meade wants to go Ryanair but then he mightn't have much say!
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If RTR beat Don Poli in the Irish Hennessey, assuming both horses run, then RTR would most likely take in the Gold Cup, and Don Poli scratched with the Grand National or 4 mile race its new target.
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Sorry but can't agree with that impossible. Whatever DP does next time, he will line up in the GC imo. The race looks ideal for him. And you've got to factor in he's 2 from 2 at the Festival. DC and R2R are both yet to win there.
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CCM
Agree, horses for courses, nevertheless I believe the races that DP ran in/won were soft races compared to those by DC and RTR; I also believe DP is an out and out stayer eg 30f+, hence WPM indicated he'd like DP for the Grand National at some pint in time. |
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4 mile race is for novices.
only an idiot would send DP to the Grand National this year. DP ticks more boxes than any horse also a lot on here kept sayin he had no hope in the RSA and he won that and blasted a couple of stats out the water at the same time.. The Lexus does look a weak race for now but we will see. |
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Only time will tell, everyone, patience is the key here!
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I've not read this particular thread for a while and have skipped 3 pages of posts so forgive me if he has been mentioned on here
But, O'Faolains Boy looks overpriced to me at 33/1 nrnb! Have had myself a little bet each way. His RSA win was pretty good and last time out win looked pretty good to the eye to me too, at least the horse is fit, well and bouncing. Surely the dark horse of the party and if retaining the ability of his RSA win given he is now 2 years older he could surprise a few |
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^^^ running against God Cup fav at Cheltenham trails day.
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just stating the obvious but if Djakadam loses, Vautour is a GC certainty.
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are there any Don Poli supporters that use form to justify his chances? Don't think so. Its a bit of a HF debate, winning on average by 1-2 lengths and getting beat in 25% of his races but his supporters claim he's the best thats ever been because he gathered x G1s :-)
Well HF did win 2 Champion Hurdles, did beat Jezki (a Champion Hurdle winner) 3 times, Our Conor (the best Triumph winner I have ever seen) 3 times, Solwhit (a World Hurdle winner) several times etc etc. Yes, he may never win by a street, but a win is a win. Master Minded, Sprinter etc can win by a dozen lengths, but HF kept coming back for more, where they showed they were fragile and couldn't sustain it year after year. I'm not Don Poli's biggest fan, but he did win the Martin Pipe off about 10lbs higher than when Sir Des Champs and Killultagh Vic did, and he won by 4.5 lengths, not less than 1 like they did. He has a way of getting his head in front, and that's a trait that can't be ignored. I would say Don Cossack has much more of a cult following. He has only won 61% of his chases, and he can do no wrong on this forum, and if he doesn't run up to scratch, it is now becoming his jockey's fault? |
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You forgot The Fly Smashing Go Native by 10 lengths who then went and won a Supreme
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Excellent point jasey
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well chief, the cult of HF seems to not look at his form, HF never beat Jezki on the summer ground that won him a champion hurdle and on which Jezki beat HF 3 times. The 2 times that HF beat Our Conor, guess who was a further 1 and 3 lengths behind? Captain Cee Bee, who even as Faugheen's half brother he was only a 150 horse at best. You're telling me the best triumph winner you've ever seen, on two occasions in which he got beat by HF, he couldn't get more than 1 and 3 lengths away from CCB? As for Solwhit, his best performance at 2 miles was beating Punjabi by short head in 2009 on heavy going at Punchestown. He then attempted to win a CH in 2010 and got fully exposed at the trip over which in the next season HF beat him on average by 2 lengths. Beating a stayer by that distance doesn't inspire me to say how HF was anywhere near the hurdler his cult makes him to be. As for beating Go Native by 10 lengths, great form that if only an 130 and 120 hurdlers wouldn't had finished just a length away.
Compare that with Don's last 2 seasons in open company(not his novice years) in which his form figures are filled with G1 wins by tens of lengths and the only failures were when badly hampered at Cheltenham last season and falling in the KG when he had the eventual winner covered, something that both Ruby and Brennan admitted. He hasn't done it yet on the big stage but thats only a matter of 2 months in which he either gets officially crowned or lets his previous outstanding form down. Don Poli on the other hand has a long way to climb and when you see how someone describes him as a world beater, is hard not to categorize them as cult followers because his form amounts to nothing close to GC winning class, especially in this season or last. Honestly, in the Lexus if Foxrock doesn't gets his path closed after the last when Poli drifted the whole track to block him, then Foxrock is the winner and he's not even in contention for the GC, or is he? Maybe Poli will act better at Cheltenham and good for him but he'll face far better adversaries this time and its hard not to see him still at the top of the hill when the winner is parading.. |
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Foxrock is a usefull horse round Leopardstown.
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Useful doesn't win Gold Cup's.
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Tell us how good First Lieutenant is.
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Fox rock was never getting past DON POLI Fact
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Withut turning this into a Hurricane Fly debate, he beat Arctic Fire by 3.5 lengths as an 11 year old (the same Arctic Fire as many see as the danger to Faugheen), and remember he beat Our Conor and Jezki as a 10 year old, the same age as when chasers are starting to go into veteran chasers.
Then you have to think that the vast majority of UK and Irish horse racing is on softer ground, so the fact that he beat them on softer ground shouldn't be seen as a negative. He was one who never excelled at Cheltenham, but he won two Champion Hurdle despite the track and ground. Others who win it are referred to as "Chelenham Specialists", so they have the cards in their favour. We will always disagree on the value of Don Cossack's Punchestown form - you pick holes in the Fly's winter form, I say the Don's Aintree and Punchestown is worth little. Take out those two races, his multiple Grade 1 wins (of which there are only two) were ahead of Rocky Creek and Boston Bob, those well known world beaters. I hear the same excuses for him over and over again. It doesn't matter if people thought he was going to win the King George, or how well he was travelling in the RSA, the fact of the matter is he fell in both; this is jumps racing and you have to jump to win - the Fly was near foot perfect in every race he ran in. You can't get too hung up on Don Poli's winning distances. Last year Road to Riches only beat On His Own 1.5 lengths in the Lexus. On His Own had been beaten 92 lengths and 72 lengths in his races before that - surely that form gave RTR no hope in the Gold Cup but he ran a cracker. |
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I am with wellchief on this. He puts it far more articulately than I. I see DC as an end of season bully. Overrated, soft and never shows up when it really matters in March. The same deluded supporters have jumped on the No More Heroes bandwagon. NMH shorter price than More Of That. How ? MOT is a World Hurdle winner and twice won over fences at Cheltenham.
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The Hurrican a proper champion , one of our company came out with simalar stuff ,we could only laugh our heads off ,didnt even try to argue , just laughed and laughed , sometimes you just gotta laugh
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EO
Are Sam Winner and On His Own useful i think not 2nd and 3rd in last years Lexus,the winner R2R ran a blinder in GC.Lexus is best guide for the Gold Cup regardless of who fills the places. |
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@wellchief "We will always disagree on the value of Don Cossack's Punchestown form - you pick holes in the Fly's winter form"
We only have 2 months to find out Don's real Cheltenham form, it would be incredible if he'll encounter the same amount of hampering as last year so I'm expecting what he does to be his true worth. As for HF winter form, I'm not picking holes in it. I'm saying when he beat Jezki on that soft ground, he didn't beat the Champion hurdler Jezki because that horse beat him every time on good ground on which he became the CH. What I did picked holes in was the beating of GN by 10 lengths. As for Solwhit, I didn't picked holes, I said it doesn't look good beating a stayer by small margins in workmanlike fashion. @Billy billy, you can call me deluded but when the official handicappers, and 2 other private rating companies, plus all irish journalists who selected Don as joint top horse of 2015, have him all up there as the best staying chaser, then you surely not calling all of them deluded? |
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@moat nobody said he isn't a proper champion. You see, you're part of a cult who ignores what is being said or what the form reads. I said the HF cult followers like you, are making more out of HF just because of his x G1s. That wasn't an insult, is just a fact. Just like Don Poli cult are saying that because he won 2 times at Cheltenham he'll win again, ignoring that this time he'll face a bunch of class horses that he never met before and his form is not showing any signs of being able to cope with them.
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What in Djakadams form said he could win last years Gold Cup.
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timtin - with respect to Cheltenham Festival I do believe they are all looking at the facts with rose tinted glasses.
Is DC a good horse ? Yes he is. Is he the best staying Chaser in UK and Ireland ? Possibly. Is he the best staying Chaser around Cheltenham ? Definitely not. Thats my point. And I suspect we will be saying the same about NMH after March but I will keep my powder dry on that topic. I much prefer More Of That to NMH around Cheltenham in March. |
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I'll leave the Hurricane Fly debate - I had a big paragraph written about Go Native, but deleted it because I don't want to take over the thread.
Re Don Cossack, yes all these journalists, ratings people may have put him as the best in 2015, but you can't honestly tell me that he was a better horse than Coneygree last year? A novice absolutely galloping them into the ground in the Gold Cup, from the front, doing it the hard way? I would say they were deluded if they thought Don was a better horse than Coneygree anyway. |
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"What in Djakadams form said he could win last years Gold Cup."
winning the Thyeste off top weight in impressive style? Don Poli struggled to beat the GN winner whilst receiving 5 pounds. Then struggled to beat Foxrock. The good thing about him is that RSA win but that doesn't account for being so short in a market full of classier horses. |
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Tintin dont think im a member of a cult we are just different people , i dont ignore what is being said , Hurrican has won me a few quid , yes i thought he was a cracking hurdler dint blindly follow him , if singing the praises of a horse makes you a cult member then mayby i am but as yet havent sacrificed any goats or virgins
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They're only classier on what has been achieved but THAT Mullins fella has a way about HIM come March
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just had a look and Djakadam started 10/1, RTR is now 12/1 after p/w put him up, and Don Poli is 5/1 in general? does that makes sense? Form is not why is horse is being backed, thats where the cult followers come in, not because they like a horse as we all have our favourites but because they think its a world beater that deserves to be co favourite. Anyway I wasted this subject, have a good night.
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All good debate timtin
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timtim is in a cult THE CULT OF TIM TIM
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TimTim
I will take Don Polis grade 1 wins over the Thystes anyday. Who are these classier horses. |
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Djakadam 7/2 - only won 2 of last 6, well beaten end of last year by Don Cossack.
Don Cossack 5/1 - ran poorly last year at chelt and it can be argued better on a flat track, Don Poli 6/1 - Bit of a plodder wins only just, basic form lines gives him lots to find. Could be just the way he does it and only ever finds just enough. Cue Card 6/1 - flopped more times than the world belly flop champion, and been beaten by DC more than once. Though is in a current rich vein of form. Vatour 7/1 -won well last year at chelt festival and looked like a real superstar. Only just beaten by cue card over 3m at Kempton and looks a doubtful stayer over an extra 2f and a big uphill finish. No More Heroes 10/1 - Took to fences well this year, but what he has beat is someway below gold cup level. 3rd in last years novice hurdle over 3m. Road to Riches 12/1 - 3rd in last years gold cup, beaten by DC a couple of times and may not have the overall form to win. But made a pleasing seasonal debut return in a grade 2. 25/1 Bar Overall im a big fan of Don Cossack, won 9 of his last 11, and I think was getting up to win the king George but for falling. Has beaten Djkadam and Cue card both comfortably before. The big concern is Cheltenham, his performance last year in the Ryan Air (when I really fancied him)was poor and didn't jump particularly well. His only other chelt appearance he fell when midfield as a novice. So im leaning towards the Don at this moment in time but the doubts about chelt keep banging on in my head. But there are issues/concerns with all the fancied runners. Shame Coneygree isn't there as I would really fancy his chances. |
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Just DON Cossacks wuda saved ye 5 min
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