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2016 gold cup you decide

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By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 16 Jan 16 08:44
Great debate this! All making it it the most interesting GC in years.

I'm surprised Cue Card isn't getting much of a mention myself. I think some are happy to write him off based on his overall form, but if you accept that the wind op has improved him, and look at this seasons form alone, then he should be fav for the race imo. He's also proven at Cheltenham in March, which you can't say about them all.

Every runner has question marks, but I think he has the least myself. Been campaigned perfectly and I can't have him out of the frame. The debate about would DC have beaten him or not in the KG is irrelevant to me. As posted already, this is jumps racing, and you've got to jump. I love DC but I just can't back him with the questions marks he has against him.... More than any of the other principals imo.

I've said for a while I don't think Vautour will run in this, but if he does I think he will win and I will be having a good bet. Coneygree showed it can be done from the front the hard way, and I think he did enough at Kempton to suggest he will stay on the better ground and at his peak.

Generally Not too bothered about the GC by the time it arrives on Friday, but probably the race I'm most looking forward to this year.
By:
wellchief
When: 16 Jan 16 10:53
Cue Card is my only bet in this, after his Betfair run, and I'm quite happy that he's quietly gone under the radar.  The Irish ones are taking up all the column space, and people forget it is actually Cue Card who won the King George, not the one beginning with V.

Backed RTR ages ago, but laid off the stake because of the Ryanair doubts.

I couldn't personally see V reversing the form with Cue Card in a Gold Cup. If the cheekpieces can help Don C, then there is every chance he can, but I wouldn't be taking 5's to find out. If he hits flat spots and fences like the KG then he won't be winning, but if he can put a clear round together, he is bang there.

If not, he'll win a sub standard Aintree Bowl and we'll have this conversation again next year Wink

Djakadam will probably win the Argento and shorten, and along with Cue Card, I think he has the best blend of speed and stamina. The Dons are all stamina imo and may lack the tactical speed in the race and V is all speed and may lack the stamina at the end, so Cue Card or Djakadam for me.
By:
jasey
When: 16 Jan 16 11:19
I take a different view.On KG running Don ran hopless and still would have won so he holds CC and Vautour for me,he also looks like he needs every inch of 3 mile.His record out of novice company is first class.He is getting a hard time for falling in the Rsa as a novice running in the wrong race and making a few blunders last year
I take the view that DC is the best horse in this race and the danger is the much maligned Don Poli.
Two darts this good is the reason why R2R will be sacrificed.
By:
moat
When: 16 Jan 16 11:43
Massive fan ofCue Card but deserted him for Vautour in KG both horses have been very good for my pocket , i would still stick with Vautour i would just see vautour having more options when it comes to tactics as for DC very fearfull of this yoke but that fall ,his chelt form doesnt fill me with confidence also as mentioned on the forum hits lazy spots which in my opinion leaves a horse vunerable ,having said that remembering Iglish Driver.Cant have Don Poli Sorry Poli fans
By:
Otis
When: 16 Jan 16 12:50
Cant have Djackadam or Don Cossack at those prices for the reasons previously stated.
Don Poli still unproven, yet unexposed, so could run a big race but not much value.
Cue card probably the least question marks now and 7/1 is generous. Will go off a lot shorter.
Vautour definitely classy, but may not run and doubts about stamina up the hill.
Road to riches has the most solid form with last years 3rd. Prep race will be interesting.

I've backed Road to riches @ 20s and Cue Card @ 7s

Easily the best GC for years if they all show.
By:
buddeliea
When: 16 Jan 16 13:47
Correct if I am wrong,but have connections actually intimated that the Ryanair is an option for RTR? Cos I ain't heard anything.
His trainer was interviewed this week and just talked about the horse and the Gold Cup.
Seems to me people are putting 2and 2 together etc re owners other horses.
Must admit it has entered my head,but that's only cos I have him at big odds from ages ago,and it would be just my luck!!
But I don't really think he would not line up in the gold Cup,he's a cracking chance after his run last March,especially if he gets better
I actually think out of the 3 for the owners,he has less questions to answer.
Value price.
By:
buddeliea
When: 16 Jan 16 13:47
ground
By:
wellchief
When: 27 Jan 16 19:06
Re Road to Riches; we'll see if Meade gets his way.

"It wasn't a serious piece of work (at Fairyhouse), more a case of taking him away from home," said Meade on At The Races..

"The ground was very tacky, he likes being in front and likes jumping so we let him go round on his own - he went about a mile and a half.

"He worked on the grass on Tuesday at home, a mile and a half again, and I'm delighted with him, he's in good shape.

"After that piece he seems pretty ready, he'll do a bit next week and that should leave him right. He's not a horse that takes a lot of work.

"I hope he wouldn't switch targets, but one never knows. I would think it will be the Gold Cup, he was third in it last year and only lost second in the last 100 yards.

"It would appear to be the race to go for, but Michael (O'Leary, owner) asked me to put him in the Ryanair so he's in that as well, so all options are open.

"With so many Gigginstown horses with chances in the Gold Cup, they have to keep all options open."
By:
stevo1
When: 27 Jan 16 20:02
Sounds like Ryanair to me,Giggy want to win own money back imo, as have 2 Dons in Gold Cup.
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Jan 16 21:06
I would think it will be the gold Cup..........that sounds like the gold Cup is the likely race to me.
Owner has asked me to put him in Ryanair..........that sounds like keeping options open to me,just in case a change of mind,for whatever reason.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 30 Jan 16 14:00
i backed him (Smad Place) at 16s when he won the hennessy then king said ryanair and he went to 33s, never topped up, now hes prob only 10s and king must go for gold now
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 30 Jan 16 14:03
One for the stats boys, how many horses have won a gold cup directly after a fallConfused
By:
jasey
When: 30 Jan 16 14:10
If that was Sir Don he would be getting dogs abuse?
By:
trigger3
When: 30 Jan 16 14:14
The Mullins juggernaut just hit a major roadblock today.
By:
timtin
When: 30 Jan 16 14:22
Sir Don never gets the credit, instead of edging favouritism he's again found another at the top of market by default in Vautour, like Djakadam last month.
By:
BornToWin
When: 30 Jan 16 17:43
The sound jumping Cue Card who loves Cheltenham and good ground, a horse in a million.... destiny awaits! Happy
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 30 Jan 16 17:56
How many races has Sir Don won at the track?
By:
timtin
When: 30 Jan 16 18:21
yes what a robust trend, run 2 times, fell once, badly hampered the other time hence he'll never win... seriously, with a clear run Sir Don is the one to beat.
By:
trigger3
When: 30 Jan 16 18:41
I agree that Don Cossack now looks the most likely winner all things being considered but there are plenty of doubts about him also. Yes he was hampered in the Ryanair but it didn't cost him the race, he may/may not have got 2nd but he wasn't closing on the winner simply staying past beaten horses. His form since though is more impressive than all the other major protagonists. I think he would have edged out CC to win the KG had he stood up. He deserves to be favourite but the fact that it looks increasingly likely that Vautour will run with Ruby on his back will probably see him go off favourite.
By:
BornToWin
When: 30 Jan 16 19:04
Don deserves to be fav, I agree. If you mean the most likely of the market leaders to blunder his chance away/fail yet again on the big occasion.
By:
Harvester
When: 30 Jan 16 19:28
CC is becoming the forgotten horse in this race! Which is surprising given his exploits so far this season. Has the class and form while doubts hang around Djak (beaten in cgc and faller today), DC (faller, chelt record), V (will he stay?), DP (not classy)

Why do people think CC won't win??
By:
BornToWin
When: 30 Jan 16 20:03
Cue Card is too old, won't stay, won't run in 2016 until Chelts.

These are all POTENTIAL negatives, whereas the others have bonafide negatives particularly big Don. I repeat anyone thinking 5/1 is a bet on this liability is mad.

I expect a lot of average punters turn to Don because they then have the excuses already prepared.
By:
Satrus_Froot
When: 30 Jan 16 22:21
A very bizarre day with regards to finding clues for the Gold Cup. If anything it's thrown it even wider open than it already was and asked many more questions.

I'm not going to knock Smad Place, he's clearly a very smart horse and I hope King takes him for the big one, but being there at Cheltenham today it was clear to see, IMO, he beat a very one paced Many Clouds. I say that as a big fan of Many Clouds, he has class about himself too, but he looks to want that marathon trip more as each day passes, and a very good chance he has in the National. But back to Smad Place and although I don't think he is good enough to win a Gold Cup, he could still put in a very good effort providing they keep racing him prominently. Clearly loves that style and he jumped like a stag today.

If I was a Djakadam backer I wouldn't be overly concerned. Yes it's a bit disconcerting seeing him fall and not an ideal prep but at least it was early enough to be able to run him again and put it right. We'll obviously never know if he'd have won but up until he did come down he was travelling incredibly powerfully, Ruby having to take a pull on him coming down the home straight.

This Gold Cup is arguably the most fascinating race I can remember. Brilliant. Savour it.
By:
trigger3
When: 30 Jan 16 22:46
I agree totally S.F. It is shaping into a fascinating contest and more than makes up for a perceived number of one sided races. It's good to see the Gold Cup taking full centre stage again amongst the festival races. You can pick holes in all of them but I suspect that the winner will prove to be a worthy champion given the number of top class chasers competing. Let's just hope they all arrive there in one piece and that we get a chance to see this seasons champion take on Coneygree next year.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 30 Jan 16 23:37
yes what a robust trend, run 2 times, fell once, badly hampered the other time hence he'll never win... seriously, with a clear run Sir Don is the one to beat.

Not telling the full story there timtin. Badly hampered two out because he couldn't get a position coming down the hill because once again he made a bad unforced mistake at the big ditch at the top of the hill. So yes. Fell once. Bad mistake the other time and fell again when under pressure in the King George. Oh and the horses squeezing him out two out in the Ryanair would be laughed at in a gold cup.

Did I leave anything out?
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 30 Jan 16 23:39
Oh and I didn't say he'll never win. If I thought Cheltenham was his course I would definitely be backing the horse. As it is you pay your money if you like and take your chance. At the prices I'd rather watch.
By:
timtin
When: 31 Jan 16 00:01
you forgot that mistakes are just that. If you think they're a trait you have to justify how he's not made them in every race or in most of them. His form reading in the past 2 seasons read: 111131-111F1, not FFFUFF-FUFFF Grin
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 31 Jan 16 00:10
just to amplify BornToWin's point about the sound jumping Cue Card above - he's run in 21 chases and unseated just once in his second start as a novice.

There's an element of luck involved clearly - but I can't help feeling if completion rate was a more prominent statistic, betting markets might sometimes look a bit different.

Funnily enough Cue Card's head carriage reminds me of Tidal Bay who allegedly could n't jump but only had a couple of unseats in a long chasing career.
By:
timtin
When: 31 Jan 16 00:36
@RH just had a look at Timeform x/X(pointers that stand for jump mistakes x or numerous mistakes X) for Cue Card and Don Cossack. Don has only 2 races marked while Cue Card has 7, in their entire career. If taken by completion rate Don looks worst, but taken by jump mistakes that could lead to a fall/UR then Cue Card is almost 4 times more liable.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 31 Jan 16 00:51
I'll take a look at that but would counter by suggesting it's a bit more subjective than a fall or unseat - and also the ability to recover from a mistake should n't be overlooked either, some horses lose confidence after a mistake and their jumping goes to pieces, others don't.

I was n't suggesting that Cue Card is the greatest jumper of a fence ever by the way - but I think sound is an apt description. Don Cossack's fall in the King George was soft but I don't think he jumped particularly well throughout the race, having said that Cue Card did n't either - but that could've been because Vautor took them out of their comfort zone.
By:
timtin
When: 31 Jan 16 07:57
But thats what they're doing with those flags. They don't just assign x/X on simple falls or unseats, they assign when it leads directly to a worst placing or the horse does it too many times throughout the race, they don't flag it up when a horse falls due to jockey miscoordination like it happened in the KG. They didn't marked Don's performances in the Ryanair or KG even with a small x because there's no correlation between the 2 mistakes and his jumping ability that he displayed on the whole in those races. Not all will see it this way, but they're clutching at straws if thats their case against Don.

Cue Card may be a sound jumper this term but Timeform has 7 races in his previous seasons flagged with jump mistakes.. not all led to a fall or unseat but the 1 unseat you quoted above does not reflect his jumping prowess.
By:
cyclops
When: 31 Jan 16 08:57
timtim, as a Don Cossack supporter, you're spot on. Cue Card is certainly not a better jumper than him; even in the Betfair, he was consistently out jumped by Siiviniaco down the back, not that it mattered on that occasion.

However, almost every jumping mistake that Don Cossack has made (including his two falls) has occurred when Bryan Cooper has been riding. He's been ridden by plenty of other jockeys and, with the exception of his one poor run under Geraghty when over the top at Punchestown at the end of his novice days, I can't remember a single mistake. His performances under Cooper have never been as convincing.

Though, with PP going significant odds-on that Cooper will ride Don Poli, maybe the powers that be recognise this and will steer Cooper in that direction? Who will ride Don Cossack if Cooper doesn't?
By:
timtin
When: 31 Jan 16 09:26
I did worry immediately after the KG about Cooper on board but I think they might have finally clicked in the last race and if it was up to him I think he'd choose Cossack every time after hearing his interview post race. If he doesn't get to choose then what is the point of a retained jockey? If he won't ride him then AP would probably make a comeback Laugh
By:
BornToWin
When: 31 Jan 16 09:36
Indeed Reaseheath, I thought Cue Card's jumping at Kempton was poor. I wouldn't say I had given up at half way, but I was holding back the tears.

He found a way to win, on a track not his ideal and going not ideal after a poor round of jumping. I am certainly hoping for more to come on a track he likes on nice jumping ground.
By:
buddeliea
When: 31 Jan 16 10:35
Not in the least bit bothered about Cue Cards jumping at Cheltenham,a place he always performs at....but I am about Din Cossacks,a place he's struggled at.
By:
impossible123
When: 31 Jan 16 10:51
I'm going to discount the previous Cheltenham runnings of Don Cossack simply for the reasons of age (maturity) and pilot (no disrespect to BC) and plump for him in the GC as I believe Don Cossack has the beating of every principal runner in the GC he has run against bar Don Poli (DP), which he has not. Nonetheless, the Irish Gold Cup will enlighten us using Road To Riches as a yardstick, hopefully.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 31 Jan 16 13:54
What if Cooper rides impossible?
By:
impossible123
When: 31 Jan 16 15:55
Eeternaloptimist,

If so, I'd be disappointed for BC and Gigginstown for not doing what is best for the horse - BC is not the 'right' pilot for Don Cossack (DC); I'd also be laying off some of my 8/1 post KG bets, but I hope not, as I firmly believe DC is the best horse in the CGC field.

Let's get Francome out of retirement.......!
By:
miltons sophie
When: 31 Jan 16 17:16
couldnt see if someone had already posted but Djakadam straight to cheltenham
By:
BornToWin
When: 31 Jan 16 18:11
That is a sizeable negative for Djakadam's chances imo.
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