Cheltenham Festival
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2016 gold cup you decide
2016 gold cup you decide
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He isn't running again as he has suffered a small cut, totally fair enough but this is a fair blow for him and his chances for the Gold Cup, lets hope he still makes it there as healthy as he can be.
Mullins said: "Djakadam had a few stitches put in at the top of his chest and will be just walking for a few days. As long as the stitches hold he will be fine and he did plenty of walking this morning. "The vet had to give him an injection which rules out running again before Cheltenham. "I think I've enough time (for Cheltenham) providing the cut doesn't get infected." http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10150261/gold-cup-contender-djakadam-suffers-cut-in-cheltenham-fall |
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It could be Aintree before Djakadam next appears again.
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Djakadam has had a poor prep and fallen twice at chelt from 3 races. Odd price considering.
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Indeed Graeme, I logged in expecting him to be out to double figures. I guess news has not spread yet.
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BornToWin i think it's the trainer rep. Smad is twice the price, and he jumps all day round Chelt. Anyway i had a small treble, and for the gold cup i'm beginning to believe in Vautour. Left handed/better ground and he ought to be bang there. Djakadam ought to be 10/1.
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I don't understand how vatour can now be favourite for the gold cup.
If cue card beat him at kempton ( considered thinking is that don Cossack would have too) then he would have finished 3rd. Favourite for gold cup ? Does he stay, well he was outstayed by what many think is a non stayer. Will ruby ride him to get the trip.? How will that help a front runner? Fav for gold cup? These races turn into attritional battles and something will want to make it a test. Smad place will not want to wait for the doubtful stayers to quicken past him, nor will the likes of don Cossack and don Poli who are proven stayers. The horse is clearly brilliant but fav for the gold cup? Not in my book |
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I've given it much thought and consideration and I've arrived at a definite conclusion. I'm not sure. About anything. Hope this helps.
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Certainly seems to get more confusing by the day,VVM going Ryanair?
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As others have already mentioned over the past couple weeks, if you're going to send Vautour to the gold cup, you want it to be no regrets and play him like he'll stay. If he fades he fades, at least it's clear he won't get the trip and next year he can go and target the Champion Chase. But I don't think Vautour is going to worry about having to keep up with Smad Place.
It's catch 22 a bit though for Ruby. You don't want to let him go off setting a searching gallop, as you're reducing the chances of him staying. At the same time he's not a horse that sits in the back half of the field, he likes to get on with it, getting into a rhythm taking his fences at pace. If you've got spring ground, Vautour in peak fitness on his favourite track he'll need to play to his strengths which is attacking his fences at pace, he can take half a length out of every horse at probably 80% of the fences, certainly for the first 2 and a half miles anyway. Only guessing but I'd have thought let Smad Place make the running and sit in just behind him. But yeah, I'm struggling to take a strong opinion on who will win the race. I like all of the market leaders, bar Don Cossack  I do respect he's a big danger too. |
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Of course he should not be fav, hes not only a possible non stayer, hes also a possible non runner.
Cue Card should be shorter for one,but then he does not have a jockey sporting a pink shirt with yellow spots. |
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Sorry....possible should read probable non stayer.
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O/T
Betfair merger with Paddy Power is finalised; how and will that affect some here especially those with disputes and/or closed accounts there? Will the two entities share data? |
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Betfair Sports Book: Who will be Gold Cup SP Fav?
Vautour 13/8 Don Cossack 3/1 Djakadam 7/2 Don Poli 7/2 Cue Card 14/1 If they get a prep run into Vautour, even the 2.5m one at Gowran, whether you think he'll stay or not, I think he'll definitely go off favourite. I can only see Don Cossack going off shorter, and with him not running between now and then, plus the Mullins factor, that 13/8 could look pretty big looking back on it. |
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Have to agree Wellchief if he gets there in one piece sure to go off favourite, shame it's not NRNB
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Unless it gets soft, in which case he would drift. And it was soft last year.
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Agree with the price on him to go off fav is value especially if mullins Ricci and Walsh have and expected to have cleaned up a fair bit in the days before! Wish I had got more on the 5/4 on him just to run in the race now! But a wee dabble on him to go off fav is on the cards me thinks lol
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A thought. Alan King says Smad Place is going Gold Cup because he is a strong stayer. Remind me, how far behind Vautour did he finish in the King George. Vautour will stay just fine in March when fully fit, going left and on decent ground. Not a doubt in my mind.
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was hardly a bog when he tied up at kempton
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Don Poli, somewhat expected, is 'missing' from the Irish Gold Cup line up this weekend!
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So supporters head to the Gold Cup with a half length beating of First Lieutenant as their ammunition presumably.
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Yeah I'm one of his supporters! I don't really mind who he just beat really as to me is is just one of them horses who wins by what he needs to and will never look great! He could get well stuffed on the day but that's my hope anyway... And his previous 2 festival wins lol
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Also looking back last year he went from running at Xmas right to the festival never done him any harm then but hey ho
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fancy vautour but will cover my stake at least with Don poli the only danger imo
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Yeh I hope more think that, be nice to top up on the horse that beat him at Kempton, and get a nice price for the horse that would have won the race.
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I plod on ... but it takes a 2 furlongs to get by a GN horse. Even for Smad Place it took a few strides to put MC away.
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Vautour should not be favourite. He jumped far better than Cue Card at Kempton yet still got caught after Cue Card's poorer jump at the last. I think the talk from Ricci has seen the price collapse, and sure if he was 15-20 kg heavy he may be a different class on the day as he too will much prefer the track/expected going. This is a big maybe to me, I prefer to go with what I have seen.
If Cue Card gets into his usual rhythm at Cheltenham I don't see the grinders like DC and DP being close enough. The pace angle is not ideal as CC has mostly led but he can be held up now. Smad Place to cut Vautours throat, some might say cut each other's throats but I don't see Smad as a real contender. A horse in a million, destiny awaits! |
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My idea of the first three home, Vautour, Don Cossack & Cue Card.
I backed any horse to win the tripple crown at 20/1 with stan james, so quite happy to see cue card win. It would be great for the sport, and nice to see the emotional re-action from colin tizzard and the crowd. Suspect he would get an amazing reception. Vautour 100% race fit will take some beating, I believe the King George was a great race, and cue card was brilliant. When you look at the gap between the first two and the remainder, I don't see an issue with staying. After the gold cup the king george may be viewed as very good form. The clues in my opinion are all there, look at it dispassionately, and cue card brilliant as he is, may find it hard to better that run. I expect don cossack to get a lot closer, but vautour could dominate the division for the next two or three years. |
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If Cue Card wins the connections will receive a £1m in bonus!
I'd like to see all the big guns line up, and the so call 'grinders' being taken along by Vautour or one other until 2 out; if at this point Vautour, Cue Card, Don Cossack, Don poli are still in contention racegoers will be treated to a spectacular finish or and/or a well-deserved winner, and I hope that will be Don Cossack, given his known potentials and misfortunes recently and at previous Cheltenham Festivals. |
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Dispassion, where is the fun in that lol.
The milk farmer serving it up (not milk) to the juggernaut of jumps racing who desperately want the big one but can't get it. |
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No doubt that Cue Card is the forgotten horse in all this - the KG tends to be the best trial and he won it. I suspect that had he been held onto longer that Vautour might've nicked it though, so fully expect them to be contesting the win. If, as some think (views entrenched over numerous threads, perhaps it can be left now? As we won't know until we know), both are suspect stayers, then Don Polis festival record bears the closest scrutiny and so he may pick up the pieces. I can't see any other winner.
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IMHO there seems to be a myth cirulating that Don Poli is slow. He's won over 2m 4f twice with one of them being some petty festival race.
What I do notice is that he idles in front, pulls out more when challenged and pricks his ears telling me he has plenty left. Is he value?, sheesh I couldn't say, instinctively I would say there is little value in the market right now period (but he is not ground dependent). I do like a second season chaser, the stats are very favourable towards them. |
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I have just watched the King George again via utube, it's well worth refreshing the race in your mind.
There are a number of interesting points, smad place ran better than I remember, once silvinaco was beaten, vautour took it up, and that was a mile and a half out. Cue card really did run on well, he hasn't been given the credit he deserved. I believe Don Cossack was beaten when he fell. Vautour must have lost 6 lengths jumping left. I believe we will get the same two contesting the race once more. Ruby will have that defeat built into his riding plans. I suspect Vautour will come on more for Kempton (if we take Ricci comments on weight at face value). Add back in the 6 lengths he lost jumping left, on a track he has proven form. I can see both of them tracking smad place till the pace drops, it will be one hell of a race. For me, I would love to see cue card win, for the pure emotion of it, but my head says vautour, and I think 9/2 is still a good price. |
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Be careful suggesting that DC wouldn't have won turning cartwheels Cuthbert, his supporters are a loyal bunch.
 FWIW, I agree with you. He made a mistake 6 out and Cooper was at him thereafter, he only brushed through the top of the second last and crumpled on landing. It was a tired fall from a horse in third and with coal being heaped on. Vautour and Cue Card came right away from Alf and Smad Place once they're in the straight, look at how close they were turning in, both of whom have had very nice wins this year. The KG was top class form and I expect it to be upheld in March. |
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You can't be tired and run the fastest sectional from 3 out to 2 out, just landing in front of CC and only 1 length from the leader. I suggest you do some reading Timeform had an interesting piece on this: https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/sectional-debrief-special-the-2015-king-george-vi-chase-27122015
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to be fair i think plenty of people think DC would have gone close in the KG not just his loyal supporters - looked to me like he was responding to pressure - maybe i need to watch again but my memory is telling me he was closing when he fell - as two of you are convinced otherwise i am off to watch again.
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I am without doubt a Don Cossack sceptic, but I admit he would have gone close.
My main worry is that with Vautour likely to improve, Cue Card having a good break after a busy start to the season, plus one or two others in the field, I don't think Don C will be able to get away with not travelling smoothly through his races. The King George was a great renewal, but the Gold Cup will be a step up even more. If Don Cossack can get into a nice rhythm, then he may well be the one to beat, but I just think if he hits a flat spot, against such tough opposition, it will be difficult. |
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well watched it again - far from convinced he was beat - whether he would have won is conjecture but to say he was beat (although possible) imo is very harsh - but hey its all about opinions - put it another way if i had backed him and the commentator had said dc is down but he was beat at the time i am not sure that would have gone down too well
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Read it Timtin. He had been under pressure for some time and so had had opportunity to respond to that pressure. I'm not surprised that he was fastest throughout that section as he was the one under the gun to get back into contention. He mentions that the front two came home slowly, despite running away from two decent types, but then you'd expect that in a fast run race. It's a stretch to assume that DC would've not been similarly effected by that pace, as every other horse was, when he was the one that had been under the gun for the longest.
Besides, look at the fall, he didn't exactly take it by the roots did he? Looks a tired crumple to me. He would've gone close, but you can't say he would've won (nor does the article) and given that he did fall (jumping is the name of the game, there's nothing unlucky about it) and has made chance ending mistakes in two big races at the Festival, I don't see how anyone would expect him to be favourite for the CGC. |
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I'm not convinced he was beat either MS, but I'm far from convinced he would've won. Whereas his supporters seem to take it as a fact.
I like the horse btw, big fan, just not for this years CGC. |
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Don Cossack with a different pilot would be a different proposition; my main worry is not Vautour or Djakadam but the enigmatic 'I plod on'!
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