On the issue of Ruby taking it up as they entered the second circuit only he could really say but Vautour didn't to my eyes look as if he was pulling to get out on his own. I wonder in retrospect whether he would happily take a tow for another few furlongs if he could run the race again?

Can't have DC either, chelt form and consistent failure in top races when other horses are at peak (not April!). I layed him for KG for that reason as well.

Have now taken V nrnb at 7-1 (missed the 10-1) :o(  as I think this is great value. KG was his first 3m race so he'll progress from that.. If CC wasn't there he'd be nearly evens for GC! ... But i wouldn't underestimate connections ability to put him in Ryanair.. They did it last year with jlt and as others have said its about fez winners.

You could say October, November for jump racing and April, May for flat racing are months when horses that come into a new racing season are definitely not capable of giving their best. In April at Punchestown festival you should see how Mullins cleans every G1, even in more devastating fashion than March. The only time horses are not at their best is after a long absence or after too much racing in a short space of time. None of that applies to Djakadam who had 6 weeks spare time from Chelt and it was only his 4th race. He even improved couple of lengths from RTR. But The Don was simply superior and I expect the superiority to continue this year, even with the summer progress a young horse like Djakadam could make.

also maybe its too late but @Harv how will Vautour drop from 7/1 to evens without the CC? isn't he 10/1 without NR/NB 7s with? or did you try to say he's an evens shot in your book and thats why you think is great value? anyway good luck

Timtin, assuming he meant that if CC hadnt run the KG then vautour would have been eased down at the end of it for an easy win, no question marks about the trip = lower price for the GC at this stage. Whether we agree with that or not, hes 5/4 for a race that isnt the main target so nothing would surprise me.

oh right that makes sense!! I thought he meant the doubts over his Champion Chase target

Yes Vautour would've been much shorter, he was 5/1 before when I was saying Don should be fav and now another WPM horse Djakadam is fav by default lol. But in form terms I had a look couple of days ago at Al Ferof performances in the KG and he came 14(RPR 163) and then 9(RPR 165) lengths behind Conti, now 13(RPR 166) behind CC. RP says its basically doing about the same, so CC and Vautour not that outstanding vs what Conti was capable at his best. However if CC hadn't been there, visually Vautour would've looked a freak like he did in the JLT when facing average competition that other top horses have beaten them just as easily; his odds probably near evens ok maybe, the GC will have definitely been his only target. Now if we continue on this dream lane, Coneygree would've been around evens as well after getting rid of Don Poli in Lexus by 10-20 lengths.

But back to reality, the KG did exposed some limitations on Vautour stamina, he simply stopped, so that's a big worry for the GC which is a far more demanding test as Conti learned. The way he's travelling I think he'll be doing too much and not leave enough in the reserves for the finish. Thats why the Don will be perfect because you seen how he lost his positions in a fastly run 3 mile and how he always came back and was there, which is what happened at end of last season at Punchestown, you need a classy horse that keeps finding more and more. Don Poli on the other hand lacks class, he'll be staying on battling with his jockey at the top of the hill when the leaders will pass the post. Vautour has class but even though he stayed the 3m trip really well, he gave signs of not having the extra reserves when it mattered. As I said after last March I still wouldn't back him at anything below 14/1 AP or 10/1 NRNB.

I'm not particularly clued up on NH racing but I decided to have a look at the big four Cheltenham races last night.

Is Shutthefrontdoor a shout? I know he was aimed at this last year but never ran. I actually like GN form, and if this turns into a slog he should be there, if he runs that is. Whata the likelihood of a run? Got small bits matched AP at around 250.

I backed Djakadam last year and may do again but not an AP price for me.

Also, I take it there's little chance of Many Clouds going here? I know the GN is the aim..

Desmond, i think your analysis is correct. DC backers will be disappointed on GC day! V entitled to progress from KG performance and ricci said that there was still some weight to come off him. But i respect the chances of CC in the race and know that V could still end up in Ryanair.

In my opinion there is little or no chance Djakadam will run in the Ryanair give he was 2nd to Coneygree last GC: he is also the only horse that finished in front of Road To Riches in both the English and Irish GC.

On 'horses for courses' I do agree Djakadam has a better chance of doing better at Cheltehnam than Don Cossack (DC), but I'm hoping for 3rd time lucky for DC as I think given a bit of luck in a fair race DC will be the most likely victor - here's hping anyway.

But I still cannot see Vautour seeing out the CGC trip given the evidence at Kempton.

But in form terms I had a look couple of days ago at Al Ferof performances in the KG and he came 14(RPR 163) and then 9(RPR 165) lengths behind Conti, now 13(RPR 166) behind CC. RP says its basically doing about the same, so CC and Vautour not that outstanding vs what Conti was capable at his best.

It's interesting timtin because occasionally people say or write things which hadn't occurred to you and which seem at first glance to be absurd to you but then you start to dig a little. On Al Ferof he's a bit older, possibly not quite as good, but was ridden differently this year. In both of the previous runnings he was ridden to win and was prominent. This year I think he was ridden more to place and was dropped in and edged into it down the far side. This may have helped conserve that little more energy so perhaps he did run to about the same. So having come to disagree with you I thought hang on. What else am I missing here?

So here's what I'm missing. My reading of the race is based on what I thought I knew and that was positive reinforced by the visual clues I picked up. In this Silvy set too strong a gallop and was then burned off by Vautur taking it up on the second circuit and quickening things up thus running himself into the ground. Thus my logic goes if only they hold him together longer in the Gold Cup. So I looked at the novice race and this seemed to back up my view. Much slower throughout the race and then finishing the race quicker. But then they are novices.

So I went back to what you were saying about Al Ferof and looked at last years running of the King George. Of course there may be slight deviations in rails and ground conditions but the fences tend to stay in the same places so we can get a pretty good idea of what was going on and I'm a little surprised actually because the narrative I had created in my mind for the King George this year is actually false. There never was a murderous gallop. Just your usual King George strong gallop an there was no mid race burning off when Vautour took it up. My timings suggest a very similarly run race to last years race won by Silvy pretty much on the button until they turned for home at which point Silvy runs away from those of this year despite not being all out.

The ground was pretty similar I think, with the first 2 races on the `14 card 1-2 seconds slower than `15. Only Faugheen was a second and half faster than his `15 version but it was mainly due to a strong pace set by Blue Heron and Coneygree's time was also much faster than Tea For Two but that is expected given how much talented the former is.

But yes, Conti was a pretty remarkable horse under his conditions, rated 177 with the official handicapper after his first KG and Cue Card, Vautour rated 176 after theirs. Thats the equivalent to a 165-170 rated horse over hurdles like TNO, MTOY, Jezki at their best. It may be a surprise for those that held Vautour in higher regard and he may prove exceptional in the future but from all that I've seen from The Don, and why I joined his fan club after Aintree, I think this season he's the one that will reach that exceptional status that only Denman and Kauto reached in recent times in the staying chasers division. He could be that good so clearly the market has it wrong again, putting him behind Djakadam who even if he improves, it that will only help to reach the Don as we saw where they stood at Punchestown.

You see there's the conundrum timtin. It isn't run at Punchestown as we move into May but at Cheltenham in March. On the tight flat track of Aintree he totally destroys them over two and a half showing amazing speed. Over a furlong further at Cheltenham against similar class horses he nods on landing at the top of the hill and can't get to them at any point after thus getting squeezed out two from home by horses he would have beaten half the track at Aintree.

If you can address that issue I'm ready to go in on The Don but he's gone to Cheltenham and failed twice and that worries me.

Don's run in the Ryanair last year: travelled well and held a nice position just 5-6 lengths from Uxizandre at the 12th fence at which he makes a mistake lost couple of lengths and gets shuffled back into 5th. Cooper goes 3 wide at next turn and down the hill he comes back into it, then at the home turn Cooper maneuvers him on the inside rail and starts to niggle at him. Don hits a flat spot, then on the straight like we've seen him many times he keeps responding and starts to get involved and somehow he manages to get over 2nd last whilst being sandwiched mid-air. Then again he comes back and this time without traffic issues he ends 3rd and gives the impression that with another 1-2 furlongs he might have won.

The above run assures me Don handles the track well, he will keep responding forever and he was short of trip that day so the GC 3m2f might be ideal to counter all the problems that himself or the jockey will get into. I'm not arguing he's a great price but he should be favourite. Its not like Djakadam is a monster, he arrived at top of market by staying home. Don beat him comprehensively last time they met. If he hadn't fall in the KG, probably because he was going too fast, he would've stayed on to beat the first 2 and now I wouldn't have to justify why he should be favourite. Cooper is a big worry, he fell twice on him and also the one that got him into alot of problems last year at Cheltenham.

I'm not massively surprised by your analysis to be honest EO. Although we are always told that the next top horse off the production line is a superstar, I rather think that the ceiling of the top chasers of any generations abilities is fairly constant (within 175-180) and that actual superstars (consistently +180 performer) are few and far between, regardless of what mark some are given for any single performance.
Silvi, at his peak and at his favoured track and ground, would've given any horse in the last 30 years a stern test in the King George and whilst I don't think he would've beaten a peak Kauto or Dessie (genuine superstars), he wouldn't have been disgraced.

I'd be wary about extrapolating from the form at Punchestown timtin with the variables of time of year, different course and different horses being primed for different events. What we know is that horses like Djakadam and Road To Riches have gone to Cheltenham in March and excelled under the unique conditions of a Gold Cup and on that specific course.

I understand your analysis of the Ryanair and that gives the bald facts but it doesn't address the issue I raise. At Aintree at a shorter distance on a flatter track more suited to out and out speed McCoy was able to put the horse where he wanted and was home and hosed half a mile out. I did it myself with Cooper in the King George and still think there is some justification for some of my criticisms but I have to concede that horses which are travelling can put a jockey where he wants to be and those not can appear to run into all kinds of mess for that reason. Why does he make a mistake when he does if he's travelling within himself? Why did he fall in last seasons RSA? Is there something about Cheltenham the horse doesn't take to? I've little doubt that the distance won't be a problem. I have questions about whether there is something about Cheltenham the horse just doesn't like.

I plod on wins the GC lads.

That's what I've been saying for ages Harvester, but nobody listens to me

Don Poli? Almost the opposite of Don Cossack. On any other course I'd say no way but he does seem to have a penchant for Cheltenham but really? Don Poli? He's hardly ever on the bridle. I know plodders can win Gold Cup's but even Synchronised won the Lexus on decent ground racing away from them in the last couple of furlongs the season he won the Gold Cup and that Gold Cup was one forceful ride from AP. How and why do we forgive him such a hard race to take care of First Lieutenant and Foxrock the other day?

EO The Don really suffers after he makes these mistakes,the peck stops him from winning causing him all sorts of problems just like the mistake in the KG at the end of the first circuit which the commentary team missed,it took him till just b4 he fell to recover,so I don't think it's Cheltenham it's the mistakes in the bigger fields that seem to put him out of rythmn that stop him winning.A good round of jumping and he will be very hard to beat.
Maybe get DC into the lead sooner instead of being covered up might do the trick.

Let's not get carried away. I'm not saying Don Poli can't or won't win but I'm not talking about some sort of flat spot. The ultra plodder beaten out of sight in the Gold Cup Many Clouds gave him five pounds at Aintree and had Cooper rowing away for nearly a mile a few weeks ago. First Lieutenant got to within half a length at Leopardstown. I don't see how you can conclude that at the price there isn't a leap of faith required here. He won well in the RSA but that wasn't a good RSA I'd imagine we'd agree?

DP'S form doesn't deserve to see him at the near front of the GC market, people are putting too much stock in this theory that whoever he faces, good or bad will see him being able to do enough to win, that is based on his win record but this record hasn't been achieved with defeats of first class gold cup types not once. His wins this year against lesser types he has hit those flat spots, it stands to reason that against better horses the flat spots will cost him even more dearly.