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2016 gold cup you decide

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Replies: 564
By:
racingguru
When: 26 Nov 15 02:46
Wouldn't surprise me if Jonjo is angling for a major drop in Holywell's hcap mark so he can have a pop at the national so my guess is you won't see anything from him till the weights come out at least.

Holywell could outrun his price in the GC (if he runs) but this years looks too good for him to hope for anything more than 3rd at best.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 28 Nov 15 09:09
Surprised to read Vautour doesn't have any form.
Wins the JLT by 15L, beating the winners of the Flogas,Drinmore & Dipper chases. The runner up from the Scilly Isles chase also.
Beat them silly without coming off the bit yet doesn't have any form in the book.

Beats a race fit Gr2 winner on his reappearance when only half fit, yet doesn't have any form in the book.
By:
wellchief
When: 28 Nov 15 09:28
I think people are referring to form at the distance Brandy.

FWIW I think Ptit Zig is vastly underrated and has a great chance in the Ryanair (just didn't run his race in the JLT for whatever reason), so its not like Vautour beat an old donkey last time.

Vautour needs to prove he can stay first though. Even if he wins the King George, I think the CGC will push his stamina right to the limit.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 28 Nov 15 12:26
Yes for sure he is unexposed at the distance. Until he tries we won't know.

Think it's interesting after his supreme hurdle win they chose him to be their Gold Cup horse, so they are confident he will stay. Time will tell.

An extremely exciting race in prospect. Let's hope everyone gets there in top condition.
By:
cyclops
When: 29 Nov 15 11:17
An interesting element in the Gold Cup, which has become more pronounced over the past fortnight, is the number of principals who make the running. Coneygree, Road to Riches, Vautour and now Cue Card and Smad Place, all want to be up there. And Djakadam races prominently, too.
Something's got to give and to my (single) eye, pressure like this will mitigate against Vautour more than some of the others.
By:
sageform
When: 29 Nov 15 11:24
Smad Place has added his name to the Gold Cup list but he was running off 155 yesterday so lets put him up a stone to 169. That is competitive but still a few pounds behind Cue Card and Coneygree.
By:
jasey
When: 29 Nov 15 11:31
They can't go at Coneygrees pace,no one will try and take him on.
Could all these new challengers fail to materialise.I like SDR but think yesterdays run did not scream GC winner
By:
timtin
When: 29 Nov 15 11:32
and a stone behind Don Cossack who doesn't mind who does what in front.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 29 Nov 15 11:39
I can't get Cossack's Ryanair run out of my head. He was beaten off easily that day. Is Cheltenham his course?
By:
jasey
When: 29 Nov 15 11:52
I love DC but he ran in the  wrong race and he was unlucky in that Ryanair.
Still two disappointing runs at the festival tho.
By:
barnesey
When: 29 Nov 15 12:59
Eeternal watch Don Cossacks run in the Ryanair last year again on you tube he was desperately unlucky would have definitely won with a clear passage and nobody would be questioning his suitability to the track........ Not really sure about his RSA run in 2014 but I'm putting it down to him still being a shell of a horse he's now grown in to it and is the real deal in my opinion!
By:
cyclops
When: 29 Nov 15 13:04
In the RSA, Don Cossack was travelling sweetly when he fell. Yes, look closely at the Ryanair and you will see just how much his error six out lost him his position and how Cooper had to sit and suffer outside a wall of horses coming down the hill and round the home bend. Absolutely mullered two out by John's Spirit (rider banned for the incident) yet, amazingly, ran on regardless with real gusto to be a closing third. No Cheltenham issues for him in my book.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 29 Nov 15 13:20
Well it's all about opinions but I can't have that. Making excuses for comfortably beaten horses is a fast track to the poor house. He did make a mistake at the top of the hill but that wasn't induced by another horse. So that's a factor you have to take into consideration. He's been there twice and not jumped cleanly. The coming down the hill he's close enough if good enough but doesn't have the tactical speed to hold a position. Yes he gets squeezed out at two out but again this is because he didn't have the speed to pick them up. He runs on okay but again you can't be too bombastic about that. He doesn't make too much ground up on Ma Fileulle who is merely a high 150's horse. Uxizandre takes ground out of him from the last. Hanging your hat on him being unlucky in that race is clutching at straws.
By:
cyclops
When: 29 Nov 15 17:42
Your point about making mistakes twice at Cheltenham could have merit, though my view is that he's such a good jumper, he's unlikely to do so again. Other than that, your reading of the Ryanair differs from mine, but I guess that's what makes the debate.
Building a case that he doesn't like Cheltenham looks flimsy to me. He's so versatile at all the tracks he's raced on that having an aversion to Cheltenham would seem unlikely.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 29 Nov 15 18:21
Which begs the question why he's in behind average horses going to two out? People are getting carried away by him being squeezed out. The fact is that he didn't appear quick enough to get past 150 odd horses at that stage and yet we know the horse has serious speed.
By:
cyclops
When: 29 Nov 15 23:42
Look at the race again and you'll see the mistake took him from poised on the inside to having to go out wide. Unless he wanted to use his energy by storming onto the lead down the hill, coming wide, he had to sit and suffer, which he did, then went for a gap that probably didn't exist. Just a race that panned out all wrong for him. These things happen, but to alight on his one blip in a nine run race containing eight impressive wins seems harsh, particularly given the mitigating circumstances.
By:
Arklearkle
When: 29 Nov 15 23:49
He hasnt had great success going left handed apart from a win at Aintree.
By:
sageform
When: 30 Nov 15 08:10
Can't agree with the Racing Post rating of 175 for Smad Place They have put the second and third 10lb above their handicap marks and they are both thoroughly exposed horses.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 30 Nov 15 10:26
I've watched it several times Cyclops. I just see it differently and for me that's one of the great things about the game. Until March there is no right or wrong answer and his presence in the race will add another layer of intrigue.
By:
The Dragon
When: 30 Nov 15 11:08
great thread and great read guys. I have backed Don Cossack who in my view is the class horse in the race
By:
The Dragon
When: 30 Nov 15 11:25
is smad place now a contender ?
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 30 Nov 15 11:53
He's certainly a contender. Whether he's good enough in what looks a very good renewal is the big question. What is beyond doubt is that he stepped up markedly on Saturday.
By:
shockster
When: 30 Nov 15 16:44
I might be proved wrong but as good as Smad Place was on Saturday, he's no contender for me.  He was brilliant on Saturday but that proves little to me based on what he beat.

He's now 3 from 4 at Newbury a track he obviously loves, but 0 from 6 at Cheltenham.  I know he's had a wind operation and it looks to have done the trick, but Gold Cup???

Was fantastic Saturday but I'll be amazed if he can win the Gold Cup.
By:
duffy
When: 30 Nov 15 17:46
Agree with eeternal, first mistake was his own doing and it came at a time when they were quickening and he was outpaced from that point until he stayed on well.

That said as far as a GC trial is concerned you can say that it is encouraging because the pace of the shorter race caught him out but his stamina started to come into play late on and he finished the race strongly, one note of caution is that his jumping needs to hold together better when under pressure.
By:
cyclops
When: 30 Nov 15 17:49
Tend to agree shockster, rather like Cue Card the week before. I think the Irish plus Coneygree are a class apart though what fantastic efforts Smad Place and Cue Card put in. I do find it hard to believe that epiglottis trouble has held them back all their career and they are now totally different horses. I see it more that, yes they have improved, but the form of those races has to be questioned (in terms of winning a Gold Cup). But these are certainly two new contenders, just as it seemed that the "Magnificent Seven" were head and shoulders above the rest. From that pack, we can probably now delete Saphir Du Rheu but add these two and, who knows, Sir Des Champs.
It seems ironic that, with so many contenders assured stayers, the only one who isn't is the current favourite.
As to duffy's point about Don Cossack, his jumps over the last two fences were immaculate all season, partuculalry in his wins at Aintree and Punchstown. Pressure seems to bring out the best in his jumping.
By:
duffy
When: 30 Nov 15 17:53
apart from in the Ryanair you mean
By:
cyclops
When: 30 Nov 15 17:57
In the Ryanair he was almost brought down two out, recovered and flew the last. Yes, he made a mistake six out but not under pressure at that stage of the race.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 30 Nov 15 19:20
Hardly original but my view is that the ground will play a big part in the race. I'm more than happy to wait.
By:
timtin
When: 05 Dec 15 17:16
Don Poli fully deserves to be favourite now after beating the Grand National winner so decisively. Lump on at 4/1! while its still available!

.....

Crazy

.....

Laugh
By:
sageform
When: 05 Dec 15 18:52
for which race timtin?
By:
sageform
When: 05 Dec 15 18:52
for which race timtin?
By:
timtin
When: 05 Dec 15 19:04
didn't you hear, Boyles aka no-one-can-place-a-bet-with, made Don Poli 4/1 fav for the Gold Cup
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 05 Dec 15 21:52
love don poli, being pushed along 3 out with his ears pricked, total micky taker
By:
sageform
When: 06 Dec 15 06:41
Crazy-I would not yet put him in my top 4 in the Gold Cup-not even the best of Mullins!
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 06 Dec 15 08:48
sage - I would beg to differ. I think he is the best Gold Cup horse in the Mullins yard. Emphasise Gold Cup horse. He looks made to measure for it to me.
By:
timtin
When: 06 Dec 15 09:49
Is that a new BHA rule only Mullins horses allowed in the GC?
By:
sageform
When: 06 Dec 15 11:58
He might well be the best in the yard but Djakadam beat Many Clouds 20 lengths at level weights in March. That puts Don Poli 20lb inferior. I will believe that to be a fair measure of ability until proved different.
By:
jasey
When: 06 Dec 15 12:05
Djakadam would have been in peak condition in March.
All Mullins horses are undercooked first time out and margin would have been a lot wider if they ran another few furlongs yesterday.
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 06 Dec 15 13:01
sage - come on now. Do you really believe that is a fair comparison. If that is what you are using for your "fair" measure of ability then good luck mate. In March Djakadam was as fit a a flea for his target for the year and Many Clouds was running a prep for the Grand National, after winning the Hennessy. Yesterday, Don Poli was first time out against Many Clouds who had a prep. Your definition of fair differs to mine.
By:
duffy
When: 06 Dec 15 13:09
I think yesterdays run from DP actually highlights perfectly the potential problem you've got with that horse, fashion Fever above points it out in a rather affectionate way, but in the GC itself this horse is going to switch off at some point and with Coneygree forcing the pace the whole way you've got to worry that he'll be caught too far out of his ground.
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