Cheltenham Festival
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2016 gold cup you decide
2016 gold cup you decide
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And the evidence from today suggests that Djakadam has improved which seemed likely for a 6yo staying chaser.
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duffy - I don't think any jockey with half a brain is going to let that happen. He only switches off if the jockey allows him to because they are confident in his ability to come alive when it matters.
sage - 100% agree. Djakadam looks like he could have improved for sure and if last years Gold Cup hasn't taken too much out of him then he is very much a live contender for 2016 GC. |
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Hayling
If a horse has a tendency to switch off through his races I don't think it is necessarily as easy as a jockey getting on his case to correct the issue, it usually takes a period of the race for the horse to get rolling again. Jockey pushing or not won't stop the horse from losing ground if it's that way inclined, that's why we see jocks throwing the kitchen sink to little effect at some horses in earlier than normal parts of the race. I'm not saying that DP is that bad, but relatively speaking considering he'd be doing it against the very best means it doesn't need to be as bad to have a detrimental effect to his chances. |
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Without jumping the gun even further, 2017 looks even tastier with the current crop + More of That, No More Heroes & now after today Pont Alexandre!
Looks to be a brilliant division for the future. |
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Since I started this thread back in April I will indulge myself.
This gold cup is certainly going to divide opinion and who would want it any other way, one of the strongest renewals for years. I am still in the Vautour camp, but how great is it to see horses such as Cue Card and Smad Place coming back into the fray. Opinions at this stage are quite rightly based on the going on the day which no one knows yet. Interestingly there are differing views of Vautour going for the Champion chase rather than the Ryanair if things don't do to plan which is conceivable, personally I don't agree as I still side with what Willie Millins said straight after the 2014 festival that Vautour would be aimed at the Gold cup in 2016. The performance last year was a class above and I'm not sure that the King George winner will make a huge difference to the outcome in March. Preparation is going to be key and personally I can see Vautour taking on Coneygree early and going from the front and letting his jumping do the talking. Apologies to all the Don Cossack fans for missing him off the original list, just a complete oversight. My one two three at this stage are: Vautour Don Pol Coneygree Feel free to add yours, it would be quite an achievement if anyone gets he tricast before Xmas. |
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I still think it would be nice to have Vautour in the Ryanair and give that race a high class renewal it deserves. As for his target, it was only after this years festival that Mullins said that the GC would naturally be the aim, in 2014 Vautour was thought to remain hurdling up until Punchestown.
my tricast: 1. Don Cossack 2. Djakadam 3. Coneygree |
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A year is a long time in racing and Mullins will surely not want to run Vautour, Djakadam and Don Poli if the Gold Cup.
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then maybe the owners should grow a pair
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I have my doubts also that Djakadam and Vautour will be aimed at the same race. We all know that Ruby and Ricci like to win as many races as possible and have always split their horses up. Why change now? If Vautour hoses up at Kempton then I can see them going for Gold, but otherwise I think they'll drop him in distance as Djakadam (who is still only 6) is a great back up.
Coneygree Djakadam Don Poli |
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After yesterday I think Djakadam should be fav. That was very impressive I thought and he is improving by the looks of it,which after his Gold cup run last time bodes pretty well for his chances I would think.
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Djakadam beat Valseur Lido over 20f at the weekend, a distance too short for both; Don Cossack beat Djakadam in the Punchestown Gold Cup 2015 by an easy 7 lengths; Djakadam was also beaten by Coneygree in the Cheltenham Gold Cup by 1.5 lengths.
From the above, I'd expect Don Cossack (same ownership as Don Poli) to be clear favourite - the only reservation for Don Cossack is he did not win at Cheltenham in 2014 and 2015, but both Don Cossack and Djakadam have improved. |
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Djakadam is only six and not beaten far in the GC - much more likely to improve than most of his opposition.
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I don't think any of them should be a clear fav,the opponents are too good for that. My feeling on Djakadam is based on him showing what looks to me improvement from last season,and last season was pretty good in March. He's fine with the course,he's fine with different ground conditions and he's fine with the distance. Most of his potential rivals for March have more ifs about them than him imo,ground,course,distance.
All in all,right now,I think he's just about the likeliest winner.....but not a clear fav though. |
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The list of potential runners continues to grow. While I agree with a comment from Patrick Mullins on ATR that some of them might not be sound or healthy on the day (when asked if his father would run all of his possible contenders or switch one or two to the Ryanair) but the more runners there are, the faster the pace will be and this could change the results. More of That and O'Faolains Boy may be big outsiders but they add to a fascinatingly long list of possible runners this time.
My very long list at the moment would be Coneygree, Djakadam ,Cue Card, Smad Place, Don Poli, Don Cossack and Vautour although not yet convinced about stamina for Vautour. I note that Djak is marginal fav on here now as some of us predicted a week ago. |
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With Coneygree out now, if Davy gets the ride on Don Poli then he's the one. Better not put one of the young Mullins lads on it.
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It never pans out how you'd like does it? It's little wonder that the best horses usually end up with the better trainers with the occasional exception to prove the rule. The one thing which does look increasingly wise is taking their shot at the big one with favourable conditions last year. The chance may never come again.
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For the same reason Eeternal More Of That could take his chance this season. He missed last season through injury. Very similar profile to Coneygree.
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I was making that point on the other thread shockster. As I said he could take in something like the Denman at Newbury and if that goes well step up.
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Wouldn't hurt to run in the denman, he probably wouldn't be taking on one of the big hitters in that to get a proper gauge though unless coneygree was fit and ran, after today maybe O'Faolains Boy, smad place?...the irish will probably all be missing.
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Worse possible news re the Gold Cup in my view,the absence of coneygree.
His presence,and how the others coped with his style of running was a major part of the excitement of this race for me. Just hope hes back for next season. Maybe the Bradstocks will think about another trainer for him, looks to me like they could be struggling with such a high profile horse?. |
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The thing about the GC is that very few horses win it twice. Bad jumpers, horses with dicky legs and horses who are ground dependent dont do it and a horse with two of those afflictions certainly doesnt. The hype around Coneygree has been over the top. He got lucky in that he got his ideal conditions on the day and beat a six year old and an ex-handicapper who was racing on unsuitable ground. Imo Coneygree wont be winning a second GC. Its tough on his connections and I've said it on other threads that it was crazy to have been thinking of running him in the Hennessy. If you are lucky enough to get a good one you have to mind him carefully.
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Well when I saw him close up,that's when I knew why he won the Gold cup.
He may have got lucky with the conditions on the day,but that Gold cup had a fair few horses that relished the conditions and they were beaten a long way out. Whatever way you look at it the Gold cup is lessened with his absence. |
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It's a complete and utter fallacy to say he got lucky on the day. In fact if anything the ones who have got lucky over the last 20 years or so are the horses which have benefited from the improved drainage at the course which now makes proper national hunt ground relatively rare. He won fair and square and was the best horse in a good race.
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^^^ Spot on. I have no doubt he is an above average GC winner, and to do it as a novice makes it even more impressive, and I say this as someone who had him at massive prices in the RSA!
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He was the best horse on the day fair enough but he got his ideal conditions. However we cannot say at this stage that he was an above average GC winner. Only time will tell us that.
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I'm not sure it ever does Arkle. Time often romanticises and mythologises as much as sheds light. Do we ever arrive at an objectively agreed assessment at some indeterminate point in the future? We know what we know and it is a subjective view but average doesn't set the bar very high. I was reading somewhere that The National hasn't produced a chase winner since Bindaree. These big races take few prisoners and a fair few casualties.
Yet horses which have run well in the Gold Cup often show up in subsequent years. Plenty from the bunch finish of the year before took their chance and were blown away. All of them. Added to that every single one of the front eight in that race have gone on subsequently at some point to put up a decent performance to help reinforce the view that some of us have that it was indeed an above average race being won by an above average winner. Then we look at your assertion that conditions were in his favour. Is it really that cut and dried? If it is and it was indeed very soft ground what do we then conclude from the fact that he was two seconds faster than Kauto's best performance when he slammed Denman by a good way on good to soft? If we say, ah, perhaps it was actually good to soft then do we then revisit the view that he had his perfect conditions? |
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good post @Eeternaloptimist. Regardless of time, and conditions, the fact that the previous year GC contenders were well beaten by a novice with only 3-4 fences starts and all of them wins, already shows he was an above average winner. I think he would've met an exceptional one in Don Cossack this year but he could've improved as well and this GC could've been the greatest from recent memory. Coneygree is a huge loss to the GC, from a quality perspective, from the pace angle he would've brought to the race making it a thorough stamina test, from a spectacle pov with him out in front trying to make it all. He's a brilliant, probably the best jumper of a fence as a novice, he didn't get many chances to prove he maintains that quality out of the novice ranks but hopefully he'll return next season and continue from where he left.
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Cant disagree with most of what you say Eeternal. The national winners normally take a good hike in the weights which probably takes care of them. I do believe the form of Holywell Road To Riches and Djakadam will tell us a lot about what sort of race it was although I've no doubt being only a six year old Djakadam is almost certain to improve. The fifth horse home, On His Own, was more or less the best of the previous years lot but he's an eleven yo and six months later WM has failed to make a cross-country horse of him so that tells us plenty about the remainder. There have been a few poor/mediocre winners in recent recent years and even Bobs Worth disappointed after his win only subsequently winning a very poor Lexus chase. But at the time because he had been successful at three festivals we were excited that he could be the new coming. Alas it was not to be.
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Road To Riches was the 'improving' horse coming to the 2015 CGC and was 'fav' until race day but the ground went against him, yet he ran a decent race and not beaten far - Coneygree had the ground he liked.
Any comment about WM on Don Poli (same ownership as Don Cossack) and the National? Is he hinting Don Poli is more suited for a test of stamina rather than the 2016 CGC with several pacy front runners? If so, Don Poli could sidestep the CGC and wait for Punchestown instead, and take on either Don Cossack or Road to Riches (not both, same ownership) and Djakadam, the eventual 3rd in the 2015 CGC. |
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Mullins has always suggested that Don Poli is an out-and-out stayer, but there's no way that he would skip Cheltenham to look after him. Neither would he be allowed by the owner to if he felt that way inclined.
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Don Poli wont skip Cheltenham if fit. It would be crazy.
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But would Don Poli, Don Cossack and Road to Riches all run in the GC? Or Vautour and Djakadam for that matter.
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There's only one gold cup and it isn't like picking oranges off a tree. If I had ten horses good enough to have a chance of winning the race then if they were fit they would all run if only because the other nine could be beaten by something else and I'd forever wonder.
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Sage I agree with Eeternal and would expect all 5 to run
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So what is left to run in the Ryanair?
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Sir Des Champs
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VVM.................
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Possibly Valseur Lido.
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Thoughts following the festive clues?
My take is that Cue Card has the best form in 3m chases this season and should probably be favourite. The stats boys will also tell you that Cue Card is too old at 10, but few top class horses would've been having their first go at the race at that age (crucial) and he seems rejuvenated since his op. He would have most to fear from Vautour, should he re-oppose, as he strikes me as being the 'best' horse in the race and his preference for going left handed and perfect festival record (on typical festival ground) make him a stand out danger - the obvious caveat is whether he will stay, but I wonder if Ruby did too much with him too soon at Kempton and that was the reason he was tying up in the last 100y, I also subscribe to the view that the KG takes some getting and tends to be won by stayers. Next preference would be for Don Poli, on the proviso that his best performance to date has been at HQ and that maybe the place itself and the buzz of the festival brings the best out of him. He is also managing to win, despite looking totally disinterested. It's a measure of how muddling the messages from Christmas have been, that Djakadam seems to have strengthened in the market for not running. I don't like horses previously beaten in a GC, the stats are terrible for them and so would be happy to overlook both this fella, RTR and Holywell, although accept that all could have had more favourable conditions last season and there is no Coneygree to beat this year. Don Cossack seems to find ways to lose when up against the cream in the top races, great after The Lord Mayors show and in small fields early season, but I don't see him running well at the festival after two previous failures. The rest look also rans, other than a brief mention for More of That, who could be anything. My three, in order, assuming they run:- 1. Vautour 2. Cue Card 3. Don Poli |
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Interesting comments Desmond. I watched the race again a few times last night and one thing which I noticed far more than on first viewing is Vautour's tendency again to jump out to his left thus losing some distance and momentum. Not as pronounced as at Ascot but still there at several obstacles. At Cheltenham last year he was the one taking ground out of his rivals at the obstacles but he was conceding at Kempton. Even say an average of half a length at each fence mounts up. If my Aunty had balls and all that but if Kempton was left handed and he'd won by five lengths would people be questioning his target?
The other thing which I part agree with is your comment about Don Cossack. There is an element of after the Lord Mayor's show about him but I certainly couldn't write him off at this stage because I also thought he didn't look so happy at Kempton. He's a big old boy and it's a sharp enough track. In short I'm very much on the fence about the Gold Cup. Cue Card has a good record there. Both Djakadam and indeed Road To Riches put up god performances last year. Don Poli looks as if the course and distance may help him ad then the above two if Vautour runs. It could be one of many watching races for me but if I really had to back one I'd back Don Cossack but I'd want 6-1. |