heres my take for what its worth:

Dodging Bullets is the solid each way bet at this stage. The reason for me saying this is because currently right now as we speak he has won the two Grade 1 2m chases ran in the Uk. The Tingle Creek has long been the best Champion Chase trial and he won it fair and square. Now today he has beat Sprinter Sacre in a time that was very respectable in that ground. He also beat Twinlight very comfortably and Twinlight was on the back of a Grade 1 2m win in Ireland. There is simply no hiding that he has the strongest form this season and nicholls seems to be improving the horse with each run.

Now for the others:

Sprinter Sacre ran very respectfully today but I cannot back him for the champion chase as things stand at the odds he is. He bled today and at the festival there is less respect paid to any vulnerability in a horse than anywhere else. They go a million miles an hour and it is far too risky at this stage to be backing him given the last time he showed his best form was the best part of 2 years ago as others have stated.

Champagne Fever is a horse I respect massively. I know alot of people will doubt him and question his general level of form to win a champion chase. Im of the opinion he has a good chance. He has been beaten a total of 1 nostril in 3 festival races over 2m with all manner of good horses behind him and I don't think you can ignore that. I know people will say he couldn't win a crap arkle. However he was beaten a nose and there are no crap Grade 1s at the festival anyone who knows anything about racing will tell you that. Plus lets think back just a few years to Finians Rainbow winning the queen mother. Guess what he was 2nd in his arkle beaten by Capatin Chris who wasn't even a 2miler in the end. These thing happen and will happen again they are not machines. Fever has a chance as a course specialist.

Sire De Grugy is another who has not been seen this season and I cannot be betting a horse for the festival who has not ran so far this season at those odds when we are approaching the end of January. For me it is illogical and again as with Sprinter Sacre I don't think the odds represent value until we have seen him on the track running to somewhere near his best. Until then its not for me.

Al ferof is a horse who is very hard to assess. I actually think he ran a very solid race in the King George and stayed the trip well enough. The owner has made no secret of his wish to run the horse in the Gold Cup. Then it is announced shortly after the king george that he is stepping all the way down to 2miles for a bash at the Champion Chase. The last time the horse ran over 2miles was the 2012 arkle. I feel Al ferof at his best could run a place but id be surprised if a 10 year old running over 2miles for the first time in 3 years was to win the Champion Chase.

Of the other obvious horses I feel Simply Ned and Uxizandre are just short of the class needed to win this and Special Tiara has 2 ways of running and I don't recall inconsistent horses winning champion chases. The only other 2 that are of some interest to me are Hidden Cyclone who had the whole field in a pickle until over the last in the Ryanair last season and I think he's certainly underrated and overpriced and Captain Conan who was an excellent novice and is a huge price and I think he ran in the wrong race as a novice in the JLT as similarly to hidden cyclone looked to be going the best until over the last when stamina gave out. I don't think we've seen the best of him yet.

CF will be in the Champion Chance as sure as day becomes night guys

finished behind Dynaste as stamina gave out in the king george and was on his way to finish behind don when he fell as stamina gave out. why on earth would they go ryanair

Bigben, think your summary is first class but to say "why on earth would they go Ryanair" makes the CC sound like a no brainer.

They run the horse over 3 miles because they thought he was a stayer, the horse was travelling well into the straight but think everyone agrees he ran out of stamina. he then runs 3 weeks later after a gut wrenching run and still has a top form fresher Don Cossack in a race at the last and all of a sudden he can't even get 2 1/2 miles. Did he spriny=t away over the trip at Clonmel only because he was facing poor opposition?

You will probably be right in that he will run in the CC (wouldn't completely rule out Vautour running, unless he blows out tomorrow) but surely to run in Ryanair wouldn'y be that bad a decision

donkey's ears on :-o

Im not saying he wouldnt run a nice race in the ryanair. I just feel with Sprinter Sacres run today, added to richie riches comments, added to Fever's cheltenham 2mile record, added to the obvious stamina doubts theres only 1 race he's going to run in. With Sprinter Sacre not at his best I think its the easier option aswell.

C Fever had D Bullets well beat in Arkle...one could say Mullins has made a right arse of Fever whilst Nicholls has excelled in the training of Bullets

And one would be right in saying that imo.

So you think - the first 7 home plugged on to line in the king george. Really at a loss to see how you think CF's run in the King George is saying Gold Cup horse to you.

Don cossack is no mug, and was more prepped. All in all CF did quite well, and i do believe if he goes to the ryanair with preferable conditions, he'd have a better chance there than the qm. If they go there then fair enough. I wouldn't back him for it. Hopefully he gets there and runs well wherever he goes.

He should be a given a proper chance to prove himself over 3m+. It was a big ask to expect him to win a King George at his first try at the trip - plus if you watched the race without any history of the horse, the only conclusion you could arrive at was the horse needs to go further. Connections should have had some proper conviction in their plan instead of half-heartedly taking on the 3m experiment. They are caught in no man's land now and are no further on than they were at the start of the season.

no bumper winners then?

so you think. Let me get this straight. Your saying that if you watched the King George and the only conclusion you could come up with was that CF needed further? Are you drinking tonight?

SoYouThink 17 Jan 15 23:06 Joined: 14 Jun 11 | Topic/replies: 1,095 | Blogger: SoYouThink's blog
Probably only 60% hurdlers with 8/33 record in the Bumper.

Good spot.  Schoolboy error - think it's time for me to log off

In response to Big Ben the Horse man

He should be a given a proper chance to prove himself over 3m+. It was a big ask to expect him to win a King George at his first try at the trip - plus if you watched the race without any history of the horse, the only conclusion you could arrive at was the horse needs to go further. Connections should have had some proper conviction in their plan instead of half-heartedly taking on the 3m experiment. They are caught in no man's land now and are no further on than they were at the start of the season.

my view is that champagne fever will end up tripless and for his entire career people will say he was suited to this or that trip.

yes people point out his 2m record at festival is top notch which it is, but what they forget is that the horse isnt getting faster. if he had proper 2m speed he would have gone for the champion hurdle after winning that supreme. but they chose to go chasing maintaining his best form would be over further as he is a stayer.  is it such a shock that his best 2m form is at cheltenham only because thats where you need stamina to win? and he was also given an absolutely masterful ride in the supreme.

then you look at mullins record with chasers.

he's a high class tripless horse who is going to struggle big time to win a major race.

CF has not won a grade 1 chase and that's the problem not the trips.I think he always going to find one or two better.
QM looks his best chance to me.

Fair point well chief. Champ Fever and on his own ran big races last festival to be fair, and i thought boston bob would have won the rsa if not for the jockey.  I back mullins chasers myself, i just prefer their price to be reasonable.  Yeah though, his record with hurdlers is alot better.

It's not always as black and white as that though budd.

Also re Al Ferof,his best chase performances have come after a good break,and surely his trainer knows that,yet he says he will look at running him at Ascot in Feb!!