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Harry,
You make some valid points. However, I was at Leopardstown for CF's debut. He came into the race with a bit of a reputation but they tried to drop him in and he was beaten. Interestingly, WP Mullins post race said that they might let him have his head the next time. Sure enough the tactic worked and has been at the heart of his best performances. The horse simply wants to go on IMO and gives everything in his races which is my explanation as to the several shockers he has delivered, ie he had not recovered from the previous exertion. This season, they tried to settle him in on his reappearance but within a couple of fences he had pulled to the front. Ditto the King George, albeit Ruby held on to them against the horse's wishes. It may, as you suggest, be possible to re-educate the horse to settle but hardly in time for March. IMO he will never stay the GC trip so I don't see the point of running him in the Irish Hennessy. Therefore, if SS and SDG either do not turn up or look vulnerable, the temptation to go to the CC would surely be great. Finally, in the Supreme Ruby dominated from the front but didn't blaze away all the way around, preferring to set a false pace in places to give the horse a couple of breathers (Patrick did the same in the Bumper). So all in all, while not the perfect solution, the CC is on balance the obvious target if SS / SDG are missing or not back to their best. All IMO of course. |
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You take SS out of the CC and CF has every right to run in it IMO...you can't be afraid of SDG...and the dodging bullets of this world that was beaten by CF in the Arkle and then come out to win a Tingle Creek just highlights just how much up for grabs it is....if you weigh in all of CF's festival form, take into consideration that he won't stay the gold cup trip and even the Ryanair trip could become a worry with his style of racing....he really should be running in the Champion Chase.
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Thought they might have given Cue Card a QMCC entry, as well as his Ryanair.
Hope Sire De Grugy makes his prep run. Aside from Sprinter, he is well clear of the rest imo. Had a little speculative bet on Hidden Cyclone on here last week at 75.0 and 80.0. He's another Forpady in that he has seconditis, but if no Sprinter and SDG, its a wide open race, and he ran a blinder in the Ryanair last year. |
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I've backed him Chief,unlike a few others I think he's a very likely runner,and I think he's a big player mate. I like Uxizandre as well,just hope he can forget his last run and get back to his form before that.
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sintonian
08 Jan 15 19:42 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 25,587 | Blogger: sintonian's blog TheCollector = Ballydoyle. ![]() I was thinking the same ![]() |
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I hope not cos I hated that knob
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Yeah Budd, I think he can get in the mix. I backed him after Shark Hanlon said this was the aim over the Ryanair. Only been to Cheltenham twice but respectable third in the Paddy Power and pretty much jumped the last in the lead in the Ryanair last year.
He is an outsider, so not expecting too much, but at around 80, and an intended runner, I couldn't let him go unbacked. Loves good ground, and hope he comes to himself in Spring. |
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Cufcno- im not Ballydoyle lol...he appears to be residing with Lord Lucan
Back to the subject the reason why I like C Fever is that SS and SDG won't turn up IMO and if they do they could easily do a H Fly who had one prep run n bomb. No way would Al Ferof beat C Fever over 2m.None. |
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C Fever would get claimed up the hill in a Ryanair.C Chase without SS n SDG far easier.
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unforgettable fire - it is a shot in the dark tbh in regards educating him but i still believe he has more to offer improvement wise as a stayer (not a proper stayer) than he has as a 2 mile front runner, i maybe wrong like others but i don't believe him to be the bounce horse he has been in the past this year and he actually now has put 2 good runs together, something he hasn't done for a while in his career...in regards leopardstown i'm afraid i just have to put a line through it, as for me he just didn't look the same horse last year imo
personally i think a front runner is always having much tougher races than others and it takes it toll long term with them, i still think there is time to re-train him and nurture the talent, the reason i am keen on this is i really do believe he could do it and improve as a chaser but until he is dropped out for a few runs and enjoys himself we will not know, they can always go back to front running and it may take 3 odd runs but personally it won't do the horse any harm at all plus it may also make him an easier horse if they do decide to go back to being on the speed (settle him down maybe) of course like you point out this isn't much help in regards this year but maybe just one run and if it doesn't work out then back on the speed in the ryannair...however they may just go there fresh anyway as he does appear best when fresh anyway it makes not a lot of odds to me as i haven't backed him yet as not sure he is good enough, i just like the debate on the horse but my reasons are more down to trying to see them improve him, as at the moment he is just a mid 160's chaser but still has the potential to go over 170 i don't see the champion chase angle myself as don't think he is fast enough, i know we can real off the supreme - bumper stuff but it is possible his best trip will be the ryannair trip long term but like cue card i still think he can get 3 miles in time...i need to see how they campaign him but he does interest me in the ryannair a tad, as it is a lob sided book imo with 2 horses whom don't interest me from a betting point of view heading the market but we can bet nearer the day when we have all the jigsaw pieces in place because nicking a couple of points, really doesn't float my boat anymore, plus i need to see the pace angles as the race is littered with speed horses |
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Anyone know if it is WPMs intention to run CF this week in the Kinloch Brae?
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Willie Mullins has entered five horses for the race he won with the Ruby Walsh-ridden Apt Approach in 2012. Twinlight, winner of the Grade 1 Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas, is the highest rated of the quintet, closely followed by Champagne Fever, fourth home in the King George VI Chase at Kempton. Ballycasey, Turban and Djakadam complete the champion trainer’s entries.
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I've no idea but my reading of it is that he'll probably run one and it won't be Turban because he ran yesterday. It probably won't be Djakadam as he's previously said he'd run in the Thyestes. Twinlight looks a two-miler and there's surely more suitable races for a horse like him which leaves Champagne Fever and Ballycasey. So it's 50/50 in my opinion.
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good chance he may run then. Ta.
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Could be a good little race that.
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I'd be surprised if Djakadam isn't saved for the handicap at leop on Sunday. Massive pot, and doesn't look that competitive. I'm seriously hoping he doesn't mind you as it's the plan for our fella!
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Fever runs tomorrow over the 2m4f trip in the Kinloch Brae. Takes on Don Cossack and Texas Jack in an intriguing four-runner race. I hope, for my Festival bet sake, that he runs and wins tomorrow and then heads for the Ryanair!
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Yeah good looking race Tom. I'd be surprised if we don't have a new Ryanair fav tomorrow. Whoever wins will go level or slightly shorter than Dynaste imo.
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Not unless one of them is a wide margin winner.
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Sorry, I mean, ONLY IF one of them is a wide margin winner.
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Possibly Sint, I just reckon they'll use it as an excuse to shorten one of them.
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It was a tired looking fall. Once again Ruby fails to teach the horse anything. I've got him NRNB with 365 but can eat a 20 loss if I cash out which might be the smart thing to do. For all the talk about Fever not knowing fck all about any other way of racing and trying to teach, Ruby has a funny way of showing it! Pointless ride in the grand scheme of thing other then to pick up prize money for a multi-millionaire. He learnt nothing to be blunt.
I've advocated the use of an aid and I think that's the last resort now IF there is any improvements to be had. I doubt it. He had the run of the race and Don was just getting started. Pretty sure DC would've come out on top had Fever stayed on his feet. All this does is delay the inevitable conclusion we're all refusing to see; Fever is NOT high class. |
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Daft running this horse 3 weeks after finishing weary in a King George. Again tired at the 2 and a half mile mark, once again showing he isn't even a Ryanair horse never mind a Gold Cup one. I don't really know what they are trying to do with this thing to be honest. All his best form is at around 2m.
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Wouldn'r win the champ chase if he started now. They will just have to hope for better ground, and then stick to the ryanair route. Mullins sent him soon after a king george, against a horse being prepared properly.
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No chance in the Ryanair.
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At his best when setting a strong pace over 2 miles in my opinion. Worth seeing what happens with the Aeroplane on Saturday I guess, but if he were mine I'd be leaning towards the QM at the moment.
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If sprinter goes missing, you can't be scared of SDG....and as for the rest ...fook me, Dodging Bullets!!!
...I reckon CF would have every chance in a sub standard queen mum. |
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Sacre will bomb out in the QM and SDG won't turn up
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Ricci on ATR just said he thinks most likely to drop back to 2m because we have trained him to run one way only and that is all out up front so a hard run 2m looks the best way ahead.
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Well we will certainly see, but I would be shocked if he is quick enough or good enough to win a QM.
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Couldn't win a poor Arkle last season despite getting an easy time up front. Will not get that luxury in the Champion Chase!
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Baffling decision to run so soon - imaging if he'd killed himslef or got a career ending injury when falling. Surely Mullins and Walsh should know better?
![]() However, assuming CF comes back from the fall OK then unless Sprinter Scare comes back to near his best I would make CF favourite for the Champion Chase. |
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He's been poorly campaigned in my opinion. Even last year going to the Arkle without a recent run was a big ask.
They should have had more conviction when taking on the 3m experiment too. They are caught in no man's land now and if the horse does go for the Champion Chase, it will be like last year, a poor preparation for the horse. I can't see him missing the Festival with his record there but they have a decision on their hands now and to be honest no matter what they choose, they have kind of compromised his chances with another ill thought out preparation. His jumping is his best asset in my opinion which might seem odd as there's a couple of F's beside his name. But even today he was very bold at the fences and he gets away from them very quick. Hard to know what they'll do next. |
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Very poorly campaigned. Same as last season.
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why has he been poorly campaigned collector? nothing wrong with it imo tell me how you would of campaigned him please?????
yesterday was a good prize and he ran well before falling at the last...before that prepped to win a king george 3 good runs in a row now for the horse, yes run may have come a tad to soon yesterday but he ran well and no real harm done, it wasn't as if he ran badly to say they shouldn't of run the horse...it was a good race up until he fell, that is racing |
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TheCollector and SoYouThink both make a good point. It seems that Mullins has over-reacted with this horse and campaigned him based on what he sees last time out and even with three seasons under his belt, they still don't know what his best trip is.
In his novice hurdle year he was still prominent in the three novice hurdles markets and was 10/1 to win the Supreme on the Monday before the race with Un Atout shorter in the betting if memory serves me correctly. Beaten in the Royal Bond so stepped up to 2m 4f. Runs lifelessly and go back down to Deloitte, then the Supreme. In his novice chasing year they start off over 20f then step him down to Racing Post Novices over Xmas and he was beaten by Defy Logic. Dithered over running targets along with Felix Yonger and when that one got beat in the Irish Arkle, bingo! They had their Arkle horse by default and didn't give him a calendar year run in which they considered the PJ Moriarty and Woodlands Novices Chase. This year he starts off at Clonmel with connections at pains to point out he only knows one style of running and they'll try to teach him. He tracks leader but his natural exuberance takes over and the field slows to let Fever lead. Never mind he was getting weight from aging and regressive rivals but doesn't stop the plaudits coming in with RPR giving him a big rating and Mordin too! He goes for King George and is 7/2 ante-post despite having plenty to prove. Despite needing to prove his stamina and settle the horse, Ruby sits in second with the horse racing keenly and actually travels well before weakening. Ruby says he emptied out and Mullins concurs dropping him back in trip. Yesterday he was in the process of running his normal race, allowed to dictate the pace at his own comfort but has a get out of jail free card for Ruby and Willie by falling as Bryan Cooper gives a stalking ride to the winner mindful of the tactical disadvantage if he allowed Fever too much rope and was upsides with his rival for the first time when Fever fell. Now the owner comes out and say let him bowl along in front and win a Champion Chase! At what point does the punters start to lose faith? There's some superb posts here arguing Champion chase and Ryanair as a more suitable target to suit their investments in either race but for me; the bottom line: They have simply run him and crossed their fingers without addressing the fundamental flaw of the horse; He's too one dimensional and tactically inflexible. We saw what happens in a pace war at Punchestown last May when Balder Succes harried him and he couldn't burn the field off. Yesterday, Cooper never gave Fever too much rope and in the Ryanair, Cue Card and co will be alive to that fact too and will not let Ruby allow a breather into the horse. So how on earth can Fever win if he cannot handle and sustain a ferocious gallop or even simply some competition for the lead? We saw it last year with Vautour that rival jockeys will NOT let Ruby get the run of the race these days. That Vautour won is a testament to his class and hurdling technique at the time. Even Gigginstown ran Real Steel in the Racing Post Novices perhaps to harry Vautour up front for Clarcam. |
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Fair points cause and effect with regard to poket talking. I still think the ryanair is the race for him, simply because there's no way he's winning a champion chase. It's tougher for a chaser to go up in trip the way he has, to then drop back down. He isn't winning a gold cup because he wouldn't get the trip on the back of a truck. I think the Ryanair gives him the best chance of threatening to win, as long as they try to sit him a couple behind the leader. We will see what Sprinter Sacre does at Ascot. By the way Champagne Fever isn't exactly a horse i'd say can just turn up and win anyway. He's probably not as good as i'd hoped.
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I think cause and effect sums up my thoughts to be honest. Excellent post. Only thing to add was that it was a bit daft running yesterday so soon after finishing tired in a King George. Horse hasn't even ran over 2m this year. Look at how Paul Nicholls has campaigned Dodging Bullets. Gave him a run over 2.5m at Aintree, didn't work out so back to his optimum 2m all this season and has just won the Tingle Creek. This horse was beat 5 lengths by C Fever in the Arkle. Why did C Fever not go and run in the Tingle Creek? Because the trainer got it wrong.
I think I am not the only one who has backed C Fever NRNB thinking that S Sacre and SDG won't line up alongside him. Posters are going on and on about how he can't beat Sacre and SDG. Not even ran yet and it's the 16th January. Sacre due out tomorrow - people who have went in at 9-4, their hopes are pinned on when the horse last ran to its full potential namely 23rd April 2013. That's the last time he was at his best, fully 21 months ago. Since that date he has ran once, been pulled up at Kempton, fitted with a heart monitor and not been seen. Until tomorrow that is where again there's been much humming and haaaing when the horse is 1111P on soft. He was meant to be flying before the Tingle so why didn't they run him? I fully expect him to win tomorrow and then his odds to be around Evens. But we saw this with Big Bucks last year. People convinced he was back when he just wasn't. |
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How you can back him for a Ryanair by the way? I'm just not getting that? Tired at the end of 2m 4f and you want to back him over another furlong on a stiffer track against better opposition?
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cracking good write up cause and effect sir i tip my hat...busy with all weather today
At what point does the punters start to lose faith? There's some superb posts here arguing Champion chase and Ryanair as a more suitable target to suit their investments in either race but for me; the bottom line: They have simply run him and crossed their fingers without addressing the fundamental flaw of the horse; He's too one dimensional and tactically inflexible. such a good point this - he is one dimensional but my posts and as others have pointed out earlier in the thread, were to see if they could eech some more improvement from the horse moving forwards in regards restraint, it appears they have no wish to re-train him which is fair enough as we are well into the season now and maybe that opportunity has now past, this is a good class horse but maybe a horse who will never be really top class ratings wise if such tactics are pursued...this isn't to say he won't win big races because i actually think he is a much more reliable type this season, it will just always be hard for him making the running all the time but cue card has always been a good front runner (better class wise though) and he resented restraint, it is just a shame they won't try with fever he is a mid 160's horse confirmed and backed up by his performances on the track but it is still annoying with a view of improvement, it appears likely he will go the champ chase route and i can certainly see him placing but he is likely to be done for a turn of foot imo and i still believe the ryannair is his race... i have no vested interest in either race so couldn't give a dam where he goes but i still believe his best trip/chance is in the ryannair as think that will probably his trip long term but if he goes the champ chase route which looks a weaker race then fair enough, that doesn't mean i have to agree with it and i'm certainly not talking through my pocket that i can guarantee |