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The two of them were 4 clear of the rest. Admittedly I didn't think it was much of an Arkle at the time.
You say his form over 2m over the bigger obstacles is miles away from the hurdles form but he is actually rated higher over fences. He was only beaten 10l in a King George whilst being bang there before lack of petrol kicked in. I personally don't think Sprinter Sacre will win the CC. I think he will turn up in January and win then blow out in March. He is very very risky ante-post. Exceptional at his best but he is now a 9yo that has heart problems and who hasn't ran in 13 months. Sire De Grugy likewise. He only won last year cos Sacre didn't turn up. A peak SS would blow SDG away imo. I have played the race on who I think will turn up and who will blow up and with that in mind C Fever is the value at 10-1 imo given his Cheltenham record. You can have him to place at the same odds as SS winning which is more than fair. |
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Mullins has always spoken of him as a stayer
he's ran him 3 times at the Festival and all over 2m. |
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Another point to consider is that Mullins has always spoken of him as a stayer and has trained him to be a stayer this year. He'd have to be pretty confident that he'd be ready to run a huge race over 2m to risk screwing up that long-term plan by dropping him in trip.
Mullins has already said "this might be as good as he is" and accepted he isn't a superstar he hoped he would be. Would think he's leaning towards stepping him DOWN in trip but as we saw with Ballycasey last year, Mordin might just get him to change his mind. The one wild card about Fever is the form of an aid. Needs it to settle him down. If Mullins has accepted this is as good as it gets (a fourth in a KG)and disagree with Mordin then he has nothing to lose now. Class is not in question nor speed imo as he clocked a faster then Sire de grugy last year. What draws everyone in is that tantalising possibility that one day the penny may just drop and he settles and turn in a superstar performance. |
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Does anyone know if he'll be running again before the festival?
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Interesting that PP are clear top price for him in the Ryanair.
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good post^^
I think he ran a really good race in king george better than i thought he would...the problem champagne has is the gun has always been put to his head and now they are trying to settle him which isn't proving easy, as he has always been allowed to dominate or at least asked to... i would like to see them drop him out and see if he will drop the bridle as it certainly isn't proved yet that he doesn't stay, its just that he is running with the choke out as that is what he has always done or been asked to do...he reminds me of a horse years ago who was just below top class marlborough who as a novice was always asked to go and win from the front, it took them a lot of time to get him to settle in his races but then he became a top class chaser... champagne fever i think needs to be ridden with some restrain now but still has much to offer as a staying chaser when learning to settle, although how good he is i'm just not sure, he may just be just below top class but time will tell whether they can nurture the talent and teach him to settle it has to be remembered the king george was only his first run at 3 miles and against top class opposition...if they drop back to the queen mother chase they have just shown they can't be bothered with this education or they just feel they cannot hold onto him (i don't buy this) he certainly needs educating but still has untapped potential over fences when learning to settle...i would like to see them go to the irish hennessy and at least try before maybe dropping back for the ryannair this season as i don't see him as a gold cup horse this year |
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cause and affect
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..i would like to see them go to the irish hennessy and at least try before maybe dropping back for the ryannair this season as i don't see him as a gold cup horse this year I don't see anything to be gained going for that race. Mordin was proved right about Ballycasey which may be in the back of Mullins' mind but I don't buy it because there's contradictions in his arguments. Paceless horses don't weaken, they run on one paced. Ruby has his own opinion about this and it seems to me he's already concluded Fever emptied out and doesn't stay. Ryanair or Champion chase. It's a question of whether they'll try some headgear.
“I was very happy early on and he jumped the first couple really well but in fairness to him all we have ever taught him was to jump out and run,” Walsh told Racing UK. “Trying to restrain him for the King George to get three miles didn’t happen and he sat in my hands all the way and probably did too much early in the race. “Whichever way I could have ridden I don’t think he would have beaten Silviniaco Conti. “I’d imagine we will have to go back in trip. I would say that is a foregone conclusion, but how far back in trip only time will tell. |
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i'm a big admirer of headgear cause and affect but don't see it with this horse...what is your angle with the headgear with him and what would you put on him??
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Think the angle is to get him to calm down bringing improvements. A hood could work imo. I don't see the point of running him with the choke out without trying something. Could be he might be another MTOY who never settled but he seems more tractable then that one.
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that was kind of the point i was trying to make above cause and effect in regards dropping him in...he has spent his whole career with the gun to his head and now they want to get him to drop the bridle and it isn't going to happen over night, plus might take a few runs to educate him...the hood may work but is he really that fizzy or is he just doing what they have always trained him to do
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they tried to drop him in at CLonmel but still was keen. In the King George I was surprised to see Ruby race in second given stamina doubts but his comments after the race suggests it was out of his hands.....
“Trying to restrain him for the King George to get three miles didn’t happen and he sat in my hands all the way and probably did too much early in the race. |
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i think that statement is bull tbh cause and affect if you wanted to drop him in why line him up at the front of the field??
my point is to actually drop the horse in, he isn't going to learn if you put him up front every time he runs maybe that is what they want |
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hmmmm.. very true. Hope they get a run into him before then. Not so sure I'd get involved but only way I would is if they try some form of aid.
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Festival form :
1st in 2m Champion Bumper beating The New One Jezki, Many Couds etc 1st in 2m Supreme beating My Tent or Yours, Jezki, Dodging Bullets 2nd in 2m Arkle beaten by a freak performance only by a nose but still beat Trifolium and a subsequent tingle Creek winner AFTER a troubled prep. That festival form screams 2m Champion Chase to me. Forget the comments by connections look at his three festival performances and you'd be taking any other horse with this form to the Champion Chase. Finally I would not back Champagne Fever to beat Dynaste in the Ryanair in a straight match. |
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Won Champion Bumper from the front
Won the Supreme from the front Lost by a short head in an Arkle from the front Horse is 8yo now man. Bollocks to the trying to settle it down. Just let it bowl along at 2m One Man style. |
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This horse is no One Man though!
Anyway, all personal opinions aside, surely the smart play is to see what Sprinter Sacre does in 10 days? You'd have to be mad to take him on if he does come back to something like his best. What would Sprinter Sacre have done to Western Warhorse and Trifolium? |
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Not much with a bad ticker,can't see as ever coming back to what he was,fabrice muamba never going to be pfa player of the year,cf would go very close in qm if running
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Agree Tom. I think a lot of trainers will be watching Sprinter with a view on where to send their horses.
A good performance from the aeroplane and the Ryanair will be the option for many a horse. |
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yeah a record entry for the champion chase today ,and all eyes on sprinter sacre and what he does
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You'd have to be mad to take him on if he does come back to something like his best.
You'd have to be completely **** mad to take the odds on offer at present. Odds are based on nigh on 2 years ago and since then horse has been pulled up, had a heart monitor attached, beat Tanks for That in a schooling session and people think 5/2 is a value bet? Dear me.... I hope the horse does come back to its best and make me eat my words. Beautiful horse and cracking jumper. |
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CF got the run of the race last year and still couldn't beat an average at best Arkle field. With Special Tiara, Uxizandre, Sizing Europe and other horses dropping down in trip i.e. Al Ferof who would not want a slowly race CF will not have that luxury in the Champion Chase!
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TheCollector = Ballydoyle.
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TheCollector - I agree about taking the 5/2 on Sprinter. To be fair I haven't seen many people saying that's a lump-on price. I wouldn't touch it either but what I'm saying re Champagne Fever and other possibles is that their connections have the luxury of watching Sprinter run before deciding whether to run in the QM or the Ryanair. IF Sprinter is tickety-boo, you wouldn't be queueing up to take him on in March...
From a medical/veterinary point of view, there isn't really any reason why he shouldn't come back, either. Obviously we need to see him do it, but the heart issue strikes me as something of a Yes/No thing - if his heart is fine, so should he be. |
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TheCollector
CF record over 2 miles - 2111121326 Can you point out the chase starts for us as that's what people here are talking about (Sure most know what I'm saying) |
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The 3 times he was best were 1) Taken on 4 lead by Defy Logic, made a whopper of a mistake and ended up well beaten. 2) Easy lead in poor Arkle and beaten by 33/1 shot. 3) Again leads and completely bombs out. Not exactly a horse I'd like to be backing against seasoned 2 milers were there is no prisoners taken.
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Mullins said "The Ryanair would look to be the direction Champagne Fever is heading at the moment after his run in the King George"
I'd imagine run in that then try for the King George again before trying him in the Gold Cup. |
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Surely ballycasey has more chance of winning Ryanair then cf
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Ballycasey is an inferior horse, so I don't think he would. Champagne Fever isn't good enough over 2miles over fecnes to take on SDG or Sprinter Sacre. Go for the win and go for the Ryanair.
The Mullins quote was from Fridays RP btw |
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Who is to say if sprinter scare will ever be as good as it was,sire de grugy hasn't ran yet,champagne fever has more chance of winning the queen mother !
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So a horse who has never won over 2 miles in a chase is the best chance in this years QMCC, Not for me but best of luck with that one anyone backing him.
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It got beat a nose in the arkle,has won the supreme,and won the bumper,never ever looked like winning king George,gutfeeling what would you back
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Something thats won a 2m chase is where I'd start looking, Beaten a nose or a distance is still a loss in my book.
Al Ferof I'd back IF I was looking at this race currently. |
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What all ferof what hasn't run over 2 mile for nearly 3 year
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Interesting quote from Mullins - hadn't seen that. Looks like the Ryanair is the plan so. Pity really as I think he might have chanced him in the Gold Cup this season had Boston Bob and On His Own not been around.
He's entered as well in the Kinlock Brae Chase at Thursday along with a few of his stablemate if anyone's interested. |
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*at Thurles next Thursday
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Yeah that one, The 1 who is 2 from 3 at the trip over fences, I mean if we are looking at who might win if SDG & SS don't turn up surely you have to look for a horse with form at the trip over fences first and foremost, Whats the record of horses who have never won at the distance in the discipline btw, Have any tried ?
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If he wins the Ryanair, then in my opinion they should go for the Aintree Bowl or the Punchestown Gold Cup and not bother waiting around until next year's King George before running over 3m again.
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Haven't a clue,as I say it was everything but the winner in the arkle,as it happens al Ferof ain't a bad shout !
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Just take out the top two and it does become a very open looking race, CF is a horse I have a lot of time for but 3 tries at the trip over fences and each time he has been beaten is a big negative for me, That's not to say he couldn't win but surely it's a big ask to win a QMCC as your first win at the trip.
Can see peoples angle given he seems to thrive around Cheltenham but he'd be a shock winner for me, GL whoever you end up picking, Remember the golden rules, 160+ rated, Grade 2 winner at worst, No more than 4 runs this season, Ran at least 7 times over fences and is younger than 9(Sh@t rules out Al Ferof :D ) |