Cheltenham Festival
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World Hurdle
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Replies: 348
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So why does Willie enter them if he has no intention of running them????
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To cover all possibilities.. if his main hope gets injured he can juggle the pack, and then some of the horses are caught between two levels, i.e good enough to place but not win so some may run for the place money. PFN does it all the time, it's part of the training game, win as much money as possible to pay the bills. If you're not entered, you can't win, etc etc..
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I know he ain't shown much this season,but I have a hunch that Briar Hill will be a lot better on decent ground,and think he could certainly out run his current price. Think Ruby will be on him anyway.
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Well Budd lucky for me I'm on Briar Hill at 8/1
 Glad I've got 12/1 Zarkander. |
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Unfortunate for backers, but I doubt too many have backed him for the race due to his problems.
I'll be rather gutted if this race slips my grasp now I've the top 2 in the market for a nice win. |
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Long way to go yet my friend, and a darn sight more chances than just the top two!!
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Very true but just as some races go against you antepost this race has been good to me so far. It'll be added disappointment if I don't have a nice win as the top 2 coupled at sp will probably be less than evens.
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Yep,the ups and downs of ante post,but we love it!!
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It's what makes Cheltenham. Taking a view AP. There's so much anticipation in it.
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You only need to get a couple right and it makes it all worthwhile. I'm pinning my festival hopes on 2 of the following 5 winning. UDS, Vautour, Zark, Saphir, Peace & Co.
Tell Us More in Neptune too, but that's hope rather than great AP value. |
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If Conti wins it pays for my week easily. Aside from him, Apache, L Colonel and Sprinter are by far my biggest winners followed by Vautour.
Coneygree RSA and Champagne Fever Ryanair are another two, but their participation is far from certain. |
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CVByrne
11 Feb 15 21:44 Joined: 14 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 4,748 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog Very true but just as some races go against you antepost this race has been good to me so far. It'll be added disappointment if I don't have a nice win as the top 2 coupled at sp will probably be less than evens. when they are going to be betting 5-1 the field on the day, this does not equate to evens on the 2 coupled, it is 5-2 which is a mile off evens |
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It won't be 5/1 the field by the off. I'm thinking 4/1 and 5/2 for the Nicholls two. Which is close to evens coupled.
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MOT was my biggest profit of the whole festival if be ran. Had my biggest AP bet so far this yr the week before his comeback so this isn't great news for me!
Do have SDR @ 9/1 and Zark @ 12/1 so can still break even but........... If AP gets sent her now I'll be staring into the abyss as she's my second biggest winner! The joys of punting antepost! |
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She won't run here fto Tory
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I think this race is falling apart with the front two from last year now extremely unlikely runners plus others featuring high up in the betting like Un Temps Pour Tout and Beat That not showing much on their only runs this season. To be honest, it wouldn't surprise me to see either or both miss out. After that you've the Nicholls pair, Rock On Ruby, At Fishers Cross and the Irish raiders.
I would keep coming to Zarkandar out of that bunch. I have taken on board what others have been saying about him. He ran a fine race in defeat last year after a long campaign. In the Ascot race before Christmas, it would be worrying how he was passed but it looks more a case of idling rather stamina giving way. We can be 99% sure he stays and excuse the cliche but he's probably the horse in the race with the most talent (bar maybe Rock On Ruby). The fact he's going there fresh and will be ridden a bit more positively is also encouraging. I'm a Paul Nicholls fan as well and again another cliche, but I don't think there's better than him when it comes to targeting the big races. |
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one unproven horse who was receiving weight last time and a monkey who is completely exposed...i think your way off myself and if they are betting those odds on the day, i for one will be delighted but i don't think they will because those prices are unrealistic to the 2 horses chances imo
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Think with MOT out the race will make up to being a 3s the field market. One race i gambled on ante-post in a way as i was hunching that MOT wouldn't make it or run but be beaten in it as at the start of the season you could see that MOT could go one way or the other, 5/4 or 5/1! I am on the next 5 in the betting at very juicy prices and as CV states will be gutted if i miss out on some nice profit from the race now. My prices range from 10/1 - 20/1 so 2/1 at least on the book against the rest of the field.
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Horses get well backed before the off and I think the two Nicholls horses will be very popular. I just priced up the field based on likely runners and am confident enough in my sp's for them coupled being near enough 45 - 50% of the book.
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Going to be a tight book for sure. Can see it being tighter than you think imo they might squeeze 6 or 7 depending on how many run between 3s & 12s with 3 or 4 at 16s - 50s
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I wonder if someone could educate me? I thought burst blood vessels were rather common in race horses and by no means a lengthy spell on the sidelines, with still 4 weeks to go to the world hurdle, why is that not enough time to get the horse ready again? And how long will he be out for?
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MOT top rated stayer UK & Ire. Rushing the horse back for Chelts could do reparable damage. JP will not do this to the horse. Also the horse is still young. Many more years to come. Sorry for all who backed it at juicy prices.
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it depends barnsey how bad the bleed was...difficult to know tbh when dealing with bleeders and we don't know whether more of that has always been a bleeder...like you say it is common in horses but most horses unless you are a severe bleeder will continue racing, if it is severe the horse will be retired...some horses will suffer severe bleeds then it won't occur again...it is very guarded amongst trainers but i read an article saying it does occur more when a respiratory infection affects a yard
it will be interesting to see if the horse still runs he has 5 weeks to recover, like i say it just depends on how bad the bleed was |
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I guess that on its own it might not be an issue but concurrent to the horse's existing problems, has ended any hopes of a comeback in the next month. Thnk we sometimes forget that this is elite sport. Competitors have to be 100%
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Harry you need to check the old calendar or else you may miss the whole thing - its nearer than you think!
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it was a bit late arkle cheers
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No rush to make That decision
Last Updated: February 12 2015, 10:27 GMT Connections of More Of That will not make an immediate decision on whether Jonjo O'Neill's charge will defend his crown in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle after he was found to have bled following a workout on Wednesday morning. The JP McManus-owned seven-year-old stretched his unbeaten record to five when lowering the colours of Annie Power at last year's Cheltenham Festival, but was bitterly disappointing on his return in Newbury's Long Distance Hurdle in November. More Of That has since undergone a breathing operation and it had been hoped he would return to Prestbury Park in March, but his participation is now in doubt. McManus' racing manager, Frank Berry, said: "He bled after working yesterday morning and we'll just have to see he is. "You never know with these things. We might have more news later in the week." |
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most horse that win this hit flat spots . any clues
rock on ruby ??? |
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most horse that win this hit flat spots . any clues
rock on ruby ??? |
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this has to be THE weakest champion race at the festival in recent years. Lt Colonel is a dual grade 1 winner this year and is only 6yo so has plenty of improvement to come. Seems as good as any and at 13/1 on here seems a perfectly reasonable price too.
If its fast ground RORuby, if fit, has a great eway+ chance. |
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It's weak but it's intriguing from a betting or analyzing perspective.
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CVByrne 11 Feb 15 22:17 Joined: 14 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 4,756 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
It won't be 5/1 the field by the off. I'm thinking 4/1 and 5/2 for the Nicholls two. Which is close to evens coupled. Why would any of the PFN horse go 5/2? It would only happen through a sustained gamble or more absentees. |
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Personally far from convinced yet that MOT won't turn up...
Having said that even if he does, his prep will have been brutal - nothing like last year |
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ok,he fell at the last,but that was a lot better from Briar Hill.
More to come I hope. |
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2 crashing falls for BH do you think he will get to Chelt or will his confidence be shot
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Monksland out? People dangling 27s and 26s about? Would have thought the Dedigout form would have seen him shorten a little.
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shame for briar hill was coming to at least challenge...they have nicely built him back up but for that to happen, its a shame for all concerned...it was a heavy fall
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Yeh,he will go to Cheltenham if hes none the worse for falling,i would think.
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probably just stay in ireland now you would think, very heavy fall
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Blimey Harry,you and I with different opinions.....surely not!!
Think its just about how he is mate, if hes ok why not Cheltenham?? |