Cheltenham Festival
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RSA 2015
RSA 2015
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Replies: 109
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A good stRayer also CCM
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Getting some practice for the new years booze up Catch?? |
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He is playing the donkey apparently
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Wish it was the booze btw... First night off in about ten tonight so think it's more likely the DT's!
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wellchief
30 Dec 14 17:24 Joined: 17 Dec 09 | Topic/replies: 1,802 | Blogger: wellchief's blog I think this time next year Kings Palace will be near the head of the Ryanair market. you must be joking well chief?? grand national maybe but ryannair? |
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Grand National? If he doesnt win the RSA he's more likely to come back down in trip.
He's a classy animal, far too classy for a National, so I don't see what the joke is to be honest? Pretty similar to how Don Cosaack and Ballycasey have been campaigned this year. |
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he is a stayer well chief...i have zero doubt he will end up in a grand national at some point in his career and very positive he will never contend a ryannair chase
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Don't think he's that a strong a stayer myself, looks pretty speedy to me, and can see him getting outstayed in an RSA.
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I have my doubts as well. He's really exuberant and eye catching, so I think his speed looks his strongest asset.
If he does win the RSA then Gold Cup is the logical step, but the likes of Don Poli and Coneygree look out and out stayers, and if they beat KP up the hill, I can only see one option and that's down in trip, like a Don Cossack or Albertas Run (although his RSA was too bad to be true). The race in March will have a big impact on his future. |
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Slabster
31 Dec 14 14:29 Joined: 28 Dec 10 | Topic/replies: 631 | Blogger: Slabster's blog Don't think he's that a strong a stayer myself, looks pretty speedy to me, and can see him getting outstayed in an RSA. at what point over 3m1/2f first time or on his second start over 3m1 1/2f does he look a suspect stayer?? all he does is jump and gallop... and for what its worth slabster in the rsa he won't be getting outstayed...he might get done for a turn of foot but it certainly won't be for a lack of stamina well chief he will run in a hennessy next season and at which point will know whether he is a gold cup horse or just a handicapper, after which his aim long term will be a grand national or a gold cup depending on how he gets on |
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I have doubts if he is a real stayer to at the minute.
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I'll go further and say I'm convinced he'll be outstayed up the hill. I've been burned too many times with horses which I hoped would stay based on early season performances which are run at a steady pace and don't place the emphasis on stamina. He's clearly an exuberant jumper and one who will be taken on early in the RSA which will be won by a strong stayer in my view. For me Don Poli ticks all the boxes. He was fast enough to run out a comfortable winner over half a mile shorter on good ground last year off 143 and seems a safe rather than extravagant jumper. For me whatever beats him wins the race.
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Have backed 3 in this so far, Don Poli 7s, Coneygree 14s and The Young Master 16s. No real reason really other than after reading the comments on here and checking their prices with books again those on bf exchange
 (see how lazy i am )Nah only joking, i backed Don Poli after watching its last run, the other 2 though  |
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Eeternaloptimist
31 Dec 14 17:11 Joined: 28 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 28,739 | Blogger: Eeternaloptimist's blog I'll go further and say I'm convinced he'll be outstayed up the hill. tell me your interpretation of outstayed?? was comply or die outstayed when he was beaten or just outclassed seems to me that people interpret staying and class in a different way to my own thoughts but each to there own |
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Coming home legless and falling after they went a proper gallop in the Albert Bartlet would be my interpretation of not staying. But you raise an interesting question Harry because I backed Comply and thought he had the necessary class and so consequently took the view that he was outstayed on that day. My interpretation is that it comes back to this issue of how close does a horse come to being taken out of it's comfort zone and for how long. In a staying race like the RSA I don't think there is anything much to be gained by extravagant leaps like Kings puts in. Paradoxically if in a couple of years he's running in a national off a good mark his jumping could allow him to make ground and race more within himself and help him stay further. As people like Nicholls says a horse will stay a lot further if he switches off. Kings won't be able to switch off in the RSA. Of course if they were to allow him to dictate the pace and leave him alone then of course he could well blow them away. But I don't see that as being at all likely and he will either have to be ridden differently or go out on his shield on the final climb in my view.
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Betting in this race antepost always leads to the poorhouse. Winner almost always comes from either of the races in feb, Reynoldstown or PJ Moriarty. Whoever looks the most dour stayer.
I put a bit on Deputy Dan & Very wood for this antepost. But think the Albert Bartlett form is very poor this time around. Neither will turn up in the race imv. Will hold fire now. Would love to see Irish Saint try 3 miles nto, think he is better the further he goes, they even managed to go too fast for him at points over 2m5f at Ascot the last day. Other than that, will wait till after the two big trials in Feb. |
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If there is a race where antepost betting leads to the poor house it's the Triumph!
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I may as well throw in my obligatory Carraig Mor nomination seeing as we're discussing the RSA......well, assuming he can jump straight left handed that is....and if he doesn't use up too much early on....It was a long way from home in the feltham when he went but I 'll defy anyone to say he wasn't looking the most impressive by a long way at that point...he may have ended up being outstayed but he remains a big mystery who in time will win a decent race/races...perhaps at shorter and perhaps going right handed
...anyway, I'll expect him to run in the Reynoldstown next. |
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Loved the way Don poli jumped and travelled and when headed found an extra gear,that was the best novice chase this season and the Rosa looks tailor made for next season's gold cup winner !
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Rsa sorry
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Can't Catch Me • January 1, 2015 1:26 AM GMT
If there is a race where antepost betting leads to the poor house it's the Triumph! statistically very true |
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Eeternaloptimist
31 Dec 14 20:11 Joined: 28 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 28,758 | Blogger: Eeternaloptimist's blog Coming home legless and falling after they went a proper gallop in the Albert Bartlet would be my interpretation of not staying. I thought this may of been the case with some views judged by above... however it has to be remembered Eeternaloptimist the horse was found to have a breathing problem after this run, something they have had done over the summer and explaining why he folded quicker than a cheap tent going towards 2 out in the bartlett race... another fascinating race ahead and along way to go...i agree with duffy in regards carraig mor but he is prone to errors, a shame because the ability is there, a good handicap can go his way if learning but he does come with a warning i have my own views on don poli so far but he could do no more than he did at leopardstown and win well a long way to go and i won't bet till the day as have learnt my lesson with horses like comply and die in the past coneygree is the best novice i have seen so far and i think apache stronghold will run here but is tripless at present but may just improve when facing better ground lots to ponder in another tight betting heat like another poster put up - the markets are lob sided imo so lots of edges can come our way nearer the day |
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Really happy with that from Champagne West. Jumped far far better than last time despite not meeting the last one perfectly. 3m and not being left in front so soon will suit perfectly, just he gets one more run into him before the big day
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I agree Tory and have had a bit more at 20/1. Jumped well and just beat by a speedier horse over 2m5f. 3m perfect and had gone in front of Kings Palace when that fell in the Alfred Bartlett last season. KP 5/1 CW 20/1 makes no sense to me.
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I do wonder whether be quite has the requisite class for the RSA is a race where the 'form horses' are often beaten. He's building a great profile for the race and odds even now of 16/1 underestimate his chances to me. All of the horses ahead of him in the market have doubts about them-
Kings Palace price and can he do it from the front Don Poli - not sure it's his target Coneygree - feltham record! Valseur Lido - surely goes JLT The Young Master - won't run again until the RSA apparently and we all know that's a massive negative Saphir Du Rheu - probably won't be going Whisper just got turned over and it looks like Apache Stronghold is heading to the Irish Arkle next. The one I need to have a good look at is Close Touch as I haven't seen his chase debut yet and his hurdles from is very good. To me though CW should be 3rd fav at least and probably around the 10/1 mark. |
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If Valseur Lido goes for the JLT then surely Don Poli will run in the RSA and in my opinion win it.
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Don poli is the one I'm most concerned about and would cover but 6yr olds have a woeful record in the RSA
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Think 6 year old stat is a bit misleading hardly any runners 8 out of 56 runners over last 5 years.
6 year olds at the head of the market have performed well in this race. |
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Fair point. I've just gone through the past 10 runnings and a few fancied 6yr olds have run quite well in that period.
More interesting for me is his breeding. Whilst he was bred in Ireland so is irish bred, he looks more of a french bred than a traditional irish bred. Am I way out with that? |
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In what sense?
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From memory, his dam is french bred, raced in France and has only ended up in Ireland a few yrs back via a stint in the USA.
I'm presuming his sire is based in France seeing as his more famous progeny such as Hinterland, wonderful charm, far west, spirit river, and spirit son etc are all french breds. Also, none of them have excelled over 3m. I guess what I'm saying / asking for thoughts on, is that Don poli isn't your traditional NH bred horse which normally wins the RSA? |
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Yep, good point well made.
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Poliglote is also the sire of Butlers Cabins who won the National Hunt Chase and the Irish grand national
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Surely looking at issues like breeding are amongst other things to help you estimate if a horse is likely to have the requisite stamina or speed for a particular distance prior to them running over that distance? Don Poli won a heavy ground decent hurdle in Ireland having just turned 5 and won over 3 miles the other day outstaying his field having looked cooked going to the last. It's possible that the Irish novices aren't all that as I'm not sure that there is much collateral form but as of now you'd have to think he has a serious chance.
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Fair point about collateral form Eternal.....I suppose we will just have to wait and see. As DP's alternative Festival engagement is the NH Chase, it wouldn't appear that Mullins has any reservations about his stamina. His dilemma now is that the horse is much better than he thought at the start of the season (or at least much better than he told the media.....not necessarily the same thing!).If you want to be picky on the breeding front, one might argue that Kings Theatre, the favourite's sire is not exactly renowned for out and out stayers.
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Most trainers tell us nowt. They have no regard for the people who fund the sport. I rarely listen to them and the more pessimistic or cautious they appear the more it piques my interest. Mullins is little different. The horse was a high class hurdler and has shown himself to be a better chaser in my view. I would be amazed if he sends a six year old for the four miler.
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Having initially crabbed the price after Kings Palace won his first chase, I think he looks a solid favourite now at 6/1. He has exactly the right profile and video evidence backs him up as a classy enough horse.
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Don Poli the subject of sustained support this week and is now just about joint favourite.
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Taken 100.0 and 50.0 for Irish Saint on here, looked like proper stayer when winning over 2m5f lto and with Ptit Zig for JLT you'd imagine he'd run here. Over priced for sure.
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That's a good shout CV and agree with your point. Nice spot. Took 33/1 SJ sits with Coneygree 25/1 & Champagne West 20/1. Thats the RSA sorted.
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