RSA 2015

I've backed 2 in this. Coneygree 25/1 and Champagne West 20/1. Looks a hot race though. Coneygree reminds me of Mr Mulligan just jumps better.

I like Coneygree too. Jumped very well at Kempton and we know he stays. The ground is unlikely to be idea for him but he will certainly keep Kings Palace honest.

I've backed Champagne West too, simply on the basis that he's the only one so far who has the ideal profile from a trends perspective. Needs a good showing on New Years Day though and it may well be that, with so many of them around this year, the actual winner misses a trend or two. Would you believe that 10/10 started in chases at 2.5m and less - that would be an issue regards Kings Palace.

All of the others at the forefront of the market have a slightly less than normal profile.

Don Poli - 6
Valseur Lido - 6 and French Bred
Whisper - french bred and second season hurdler
Coneygree - won the Feltham and 8
Saphir Du Rheu - 6, french bred, second season hurdler
Southfield Theatre - second season hurdler
The Young Master - 6, second season hurdler
Apache Stronghold - no chelt experience, though that's not as big an issue

You could actually argue that Don Poli is more or less a french bred which would be against him as well

Is this race really hotting up to be such a good a field with dozens of exceptional horses possibly lining up in it? I'm not so sure and reckon there is some good value to be had by having a bet now!

Kings palace - very short in the betting, last years AB run lives long in the memory
Whisper - injured?
Pont Alexandre - injured?
Coneygree - needs soft?
Apache stronghold - JLT?
Valseur lido - JLT?
Sapphire du rheu - JLT or misses cheltenham?
Southfield theatre - not good enough?
The young master - handicap?

The 2 I've left out Don poli and Champagne west are the 2 I think have the right profile for the race and are a little bit of value

Is don poli a certain runner.  Trainer has mentioned the 4 miler and paddy power have priced as though that's where he's likely to run.

Nothing certain in Willie's World formboy. Be interesting to see if he runs in the Moriarty. That would be the most likely hint that he'll contest the RSA. I think the horse is far too good to run the the NH Chase and wouldn't want to entrust him to an amateur jockey.

I agree you shouldn't read too much into what he says, however Paddy Power have a good idea what races his runners are likely to run in and they go shortest for the 4 miler and longest fort the RSA.
As you say his next run will indicate his likely Cheltenham target.

Gigginstown have plenty of novices this year but I'd be surprised if they sent their Group 1 winning 3 miler to the Listed National Hunt Chase.

A lot will depend on what the likes of Valseur Lido and Rule The World do in the meantime. If they win their preps they could have a decent chance in each of the four novice chases: Clarcam 2m, Rule The World 2m4f, Valsuer Lido 3m and Don Poli 4m.

Don Poli has just won what looked a very strong 3m novice chase. Surely he's too good for the 4 miler.

If Gigginstown think he might be a Gold Cup horse in 2016, then they won't want Patrick Mullins making an arse of him in a 4 mile slog. It would be the most bizarre Gold Cup preparation imaginable.

^^^ agree crossed my mind this.

He aint too good for any race that I can see......why are a load on here going on about how good he is???
Cos Mullins says hes a gold cup horse?? well maybe he is,and maybe I do the horse a disservice,but listening to mullins and betting accordingly aint advisable imo,especially with his Gold cup record.

As soon as Mullins said he's "nailed on" to run in the 4-miler it was pretty obvious the RSA was the target.

That Rule the World should have the speed for a 2m race seeing as he won The Derby over 12f. The QMCC and Derby
would be a nice double to have on his CV.

I'll give you 1000000/1 for him to do the double Pete

Im going to watch the race again,as I seem to be rather in a minority re Don Poli.

I don't mind what Mullins said Budd, for me both Don Poli and Apache stronghold are two serious horses. I think Don Poli is the horse to beat in whatever race he goes for, whether that be the RSA or the four miler. Far and away prefer him to Kings Palace.

I'll give you 1000000/1 for him to do the double Pete

Not quite enough

I expect it was an old joke anyway.

I think this time next year Kings Palace will be near the head of the Ryanair market.

I'm with you Budd.  The toughest horse won yesterday and you can't knock him for that, but am sure something with a bit more speed will have him over 3m at Cheltenham on likely faster ground.

Well that's 2 of us Shock

Without meaning to take away from the Don Poli debate, does anyone know if Sausalito Sunrise was ok after his fall on Boxing Day? Looking at the NH Novices and he has a very appealing profile.

Pont Alex looks a NR judging by the market on here but Mark Howard gave quite an upbeat assessment in the Xmas update

PONT ALEXANDRE: Last seen finishing third in the Neptune NH at Cheltenham in March 2013, he is due to make his return to action in February with the RSA Chase his most likely target in the spring. The six year old has done a lot of work at home and remains an exciting prospect for chasing.

A feb start surely throws RSA participation into doubt?

Pont Alex looks a NR judging by the market on here but Mark Howard gave quite an upbeat assessment in the Xmas update

PONT ALEXANDRE: Last seen finishing third in the Neptune NH at Cheltenham in March 2013, he is due to make his return to action in February with the RSA Chase his most likely target in the spring. The six year old has done a lot of work at home and remains an exciting prospect for chasing.

A feb start surely throws RSA participation into doubt?

For those of you who think that Don Poli lacks speed, he beat Caid Du Berlais 6 lengths (levels) in the boys race over 2 and a half miles at Cheltenham (good) and was beaten a length by Beat That (good to yielding) at Punchestown, his best 2 pieces of form over hurdles. He is likely to improve for better ground, not be disadvantaged.

I'm with budd and shockster. Clearly he's a good horse, and a real strayer, but think he is very short for Chelts. Can't understand the nativity towards Kings Palace myself. Looked a superstar this season and very worth fav for me. Think his run last year obviously has a lot to do with it, but He has shown the course suits him now, and I think that was  just an off day myself.

Nativity FFS!! Negativity...

Xmas was last week CCM!....

A good stRayer also CCM

Getting some practice for the new years booze up Catch??

He is playing the donkey apparently

Wish it was the booze btw... First night off in about ten tonight so think it's more likely the DT's!

wellchief
30 Dec 14 17:24
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17 Dec 09
| Topic/replies: 1,802 | Blogger: wellchief's blog
I think this time next year Kings Palace will be near the head of the Ryanair market.



you must be joking well chief??

grand national maybe but ryannair?

Grand National? If he doesnt win the RSA he's more likely to come back down in trip.

He's a classy animal, far too classy for a National, so I don't see what the joke is to be honest? Pretty similar to how Don Cosaack and Ballycasey have been campaigned this year.

he is a stayer well chief...i have zero doubt he will end up in a grand national at some point in his career and very positive he will never contend a ryannair chase

Don't think he's that a strong a stayer myself, looks pretty speedy to me, and can see him getting outstayed in an RSA.

I have my doubts as well. He's really exuberant and eye catching, so I think his speed looks his strongest asset.

If he does win the RSA then Gold Cup is the logical step, but the likes of Don Poli and Coneygree look out and out stayers, and if they beat KP up the hill, I can only see one option and that's down in trip, like a Don Cossack or Albertas Run (although his RSA was too bad to be true).

The race in March will have a big impact on his future.

Slabster
31 Dec 14 14:29
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28 Dec 10
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Don't think he's that a strong a stayer myself, looks pretty speedy to me, and can see him getting outstayed in an RSA.




at what point over 3m1/2f first time or on his second start over 3m1 1/2f does he look a suspect stayer?? all he does is jump and gallop...

and for what its worth slabster in the rsa he won't be getting outstayed...he might get done for a turn of foot but it certainly won't be for a lack of stamina

well chief he will run in a hennessy next season and at which point will know whether he is a gold cup horse or just a handicapper, after which his aim long term will be a grand national or a gold cup depending on how he gets on

I have doubts if he is a real stayer to at the minute.

I'll go further and say I'm convinced he'll be outstayed up the hill. I've been burned too many times with horses which I hoped would stay based on early season performances which are run at a steady pace and don't place the emphasis on stamina.  He's clearly an exuberant jumper and one who will be taken on early in the RSA which will be won by a strong stayer in my view. For me Don Poli ticks all the boxes. He was fast enough to run out a comfortable winner over half a mile shorter on good ground last year off 143 and seems a safe rather than extravagant jumper. For me whatever beats him wins the race.

Have backed 3 in this so far, Don Poli 7s, Coneygree 14s and The Young Master 16s. No real reason really other than after reading the comments on here and checking their prices with books again those on bf exchange (see how lazy i am)

Nah only joking, i backed Don Poli after watching its last run, the other 2 though

Eeternaloptimist
31 Dec 14 17:11
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I'll go further and say I'm convinced he'll be outstayed up the hill.



tell me your interpretation of outstayed??

was comply or die outstayed when he was beaten or just outclassed

seems to me that people interpret staying and class in a different way to my own thoughts but each to there own

Coming home legless and falling after they went a proper gallop in the Albert Bartlet would be my interpretation of not staying. But you raise an interesting question Harry because I backed Comply and thought he had the necessary class and so consequently took the view that he was outstayed on that day. My interpretation is that it comes back to this issue of how close does a horse come to being taken out of it's comfort zone and for how long. In a staying race like the RSA I don't think there is anything much to be gained by extravagant leaps like Kings puts in. Paradoxically if in a couple of years he's running in a national off a good mark his jumping could allow him to make ground and race more within himself and help him stay further. As people like Nicholls says a horse will stay a lot further if he switches off. Kings won't be able to switch off in the RSA. Of course if they were to allow him to dictate the pace and leave him alone then of course he could well blow them away. But I don't see that as being at all likely and he will either have to be ridden differently or go out on his shield on the final climb in my view.

Betting in this race antepost always leads to the poorhouse. Winner almost always comes from either of the races in feb, Reynoldstown or PJ Moriarty. Whoever looks the most dour stayer.

I put a bit on Deputy Dan & Very wood for this antepost. But think the Albert Bartlett form is very poor this time around. Neither will turn up in the race imv. Will hold fire now. Would love to see Irish Saint try 3 miles nto, think he is better the further he goes, they even managed to go too fast for him at points over 2m5f at Ascot the last day.

Other than that, will wait till after the two big trials in Feb.

If there is a race where antepost betting leads to the poor house it's the Triumph!

I may as well throw in my obligatory Carraig Mor nomination seeing as we're discussing the RSA......well, assuming he can jump straight left handed that is....and if he doesn't use up too much early on....It was a long way from home in the feltham when he went but I 'll defy anyone to say he wasn't looking the most impressive by a long way at that point...he may have ended up being outstayed but he remains a big mystery who in time will win a decent race/races...perhaps at shorter and perhaps going right handed...anyway, I'll expect him to run in the Reynoldstown next.

Loved the way Don poli jumped and travelled and when headed found an extra gear,that was the best novice chase this season and the Rosa looks tailor made for next season's gold cup winner !

Rsa sorry

Can't Catch Me • January 1, 2015 1:26 AM GMT
If there is a race where antepost betting leads to the poor house it's the Triumph!

statistically very true

Eeternaloptimist
31 Dec 14 20:11
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Coming home legless and falling after they went a proper gallop in the Albert Bartlet would be my interpretation of not staying.




I thought this may of been the case with some views judged by above...

however it has to be remembered Eeternaloptimist the horse was found to have a breathing problem after this run, something they have had done over the summer and explaining why he folded quicker than a cheap tent going towards 2 out in the bartlett race...

another fascinating race ahead and along way to go...i agree with duffy in regards carraig mor but he is prone to errors, a shame because the ability is there, a good handicap can go his way if learning but he does come with a warning

i have my own views on don poli so far but he could do no more than he did at leopardstown and win well

a long way to go and i won't bet till the day as have learnt my lesson with horses like comply and die in the past

coneygree is the best novice i have seen so far and i think apache stronghold will run here but is tripless at present but may just improve when facing better ground

lots to ponder in another tight betting heat

like another poster put up - the markets are lob sided imo so lots of edges can come our way nearer the day

Really happy with that from Champagne West. Jumped far far better than last time despite not meeting the last one perfectly. 3m and not being left in front so soon will suit perfectly, just he gets one more run into him before the big day

I agree Tory and have had a bit more at 20/1. Jumped well and just beat by a speedier horse over 2m5f.  3m perfect and had gone in front of Kings Palace when that fell in the Alfred Bartlett last season. KP 5/1 CW 20/1 makes no sense to me.

I do wonder whether be quite has the requisite class for the RSA is a race where the 'form horses' are often beaten. He's building a great profile for the race and odds even now of 16/1 underestimate his chances to me. All of the horses ahead of him in the market have doubts about them-

Kings Palace price and can he do it from the front

Don Poli - not sure it's his target

Coneygree - feltham record!

Valseur Lido - surely goes JLT

The Young Master - won't run again until the RSA apparently and we all know that's a massive negative

Saphir Du Rheu - probably won't be going

Whisper just got turned over and it looks like Apache Stronghold is heading to the Irish Arkle next. The one I need to have a good look at is Close Touch as I haven't seen his chase debut yet and his hurdles from is very good.

To me though CW should be 3rd fav at least and probably around the 10/1 mark.

If Valseur Lido goes for the JLT then surely Don Poli will run in the RSA and in my opinion win it.

Don poli is the one I'm most concerned about and would cover but 6yr olds have a woeful record in the RSA

Think 6 year old stat is a bit misleading hardly any runners 8 out of 56 runners over last 5 years.
6 year olds at the head of the market have performed well in this race.

Fair point. I've just gone through the past 10 runnings and a few fancied 6yr olds have run quite well in that period.

More interesting for me is his breeding. Whilst he was bred in Ireland so is irish bred, he looks more of a french bred than a traditional irish bred. Am I way out with that?

In what sense?

From memory, his dam is french bred, raced in France and has only ended up in Ireland a few yrs back via a stint in the USA.

I'm presuming his sire is based in France seeing as his more famous progeny such as Hinterland, wonderful charm, far west, spirit river, and spirit son etc are all french breds. Also, none of them have excelled over 3m.

I guess what I'm saying / asking for thoughts on, is that Don poli isn't your traditional NH bred horse which normally wins the RSA?

Yep, good point well made.

Poliglote is also the sire of Butlers Cabins who won the National Hunt Chase and the Irish grand national

Surely looking at issues like breeding are amongst other things to help you estimate if a horse is likely to have the requisite stamina or speed for a particular distance prior to them running over that distance? Don Poli won a heavy ground decent hurdle in Ireland having just turned 5 and won over 3 miles the other day outstaying his field having looked cooked going to the last. It's possible that the Irish novices aren't all that as I'm not sure that there is much collateral form but as of now you'd have to think he has a serious chance.

Fair point about collateral form Eternal.....I suppose we will just have to wait and see. As DP's alternative Festival engagement is the NH Chase, it wouldn't appear that Mullins has any reservations about his stamina. His dilemma now is that the horse is much better than he thought at the start of the season (or at least much better than he told the media.....not necessarily the same thing!).If you want to be picky on the breeding front, one might argue that Kings Theatre, the favourite's sire is not exactly renowned for out and out stayers.

Most trainers tell us nowt. They have no regard for the people who fund the sport. I rarely listen to them and the more pessimistic or cautious they appear the more it piques my interest. Mullins is little different. The horse was a high class hurdler and has shown himself to be a better chaser in my view. I would be amazed if he sends a six year old for the four miler.

Having initially crabbed the price after Kings Palace won his first chase, I think he looks a solid favourite now at 6/1. He has exactly the right profile and video evidence backs him up as a classy enough horse.

Don Poli the subject of sustained support this week and is now just about joint favourite.

Taken 100.0 and 50.0 for Irish Saint on here, looked like proper stayer when winning over 2m5f lto and with Ptit Zig for JLT you'd imagine he'd run here. Over priced for sure.

That's a good shout CV and agree with your point. Nice spot. Took 33/1 SJ sits with Coneygree 25/1 & Champagne West 20/1. Thats the RSA sorted.

I've been a fan of the horse for awhile, backed him 3 times this season and a few times last season too. Saphir Du Rheu going back over hurdles also helps him go for RSA.

I'd imagine he'll go back to Ascot for the Reynoldstown next. He'll get a strong stamina test there.

He will if Coneygree goes there.

I reckon it will be Aintree after the reynoldstown

ooops next stop for irish saint is the Scilly Isles at Sandown

Still hopeful that Valseur Lido runs in this and Patrick gets his way with Don Poli in four miler. Because if DP does run in RSA, what has Willie got for four miler?

Champagne West out for season with an injury after fall at Sandown on Saturday. FFS

54 ENTRIES

Apache Jack (IRE)	Ms Sandra Hughes, Ireland	11st 4lb
Apache Stronghold (IRE)	Noel Meade, Ireland	11st 4lb
Balbir du Mathan (FR)	Gordon Elliott, Ireland	11st 4lb
Band of Blood (IRE)	M. F. Morris, Ireland	11st 4lb
Benevolent (IRE)	Chris Bealby	11st 4lb
Blood Cotil (FR)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	11st 4lb
Carole's Destrier	Neil Mulholland	11st 4lb
Carraig Mor (IRE)	Alan King	11st 4lb
Cause of Causes (USA)	Gordon Elliott, Ireland	11st 4lb
Cogry	Nigel Twiston-Davies	11st 4lb
Coneygree	Mark Bradstock	11st 4lb
Deputy Dan (IRE)	Oliver Sherwood	11st 4lb
Don Poli (IRE)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	11st 4lb
Fine Rightly (IRE)	Stuart Crawford, Northern Ireland	11st 4lb
Generous Ransom (IRE)	Nick Gifford	11st 4lb
Grand Vision (IRE)	Colin Tizzard	11st 4lb
If In Doubt (IRE)	Philip Hobbs	11st 4lb
Irish Saint (FR)	Paul Nicholls	11st 4lb
Jarry d'Honneur (FR)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	11st 4lb
Kings Palace (IRE)	David Pipe	11st 4lb
Le Vent d'Antan (FR)	Miss Elizabeth Doyle, Ireland	11st 4lb
Mala Beach (IRE)	Gordon Elliott, Ireland	11st 4lb
Ned Stark (IRE)	Alan King	11st 4lb
Noble Emperor (IRE)	A. J. Martin, Ireland	11st 4lb
Perfect Gentleman (IRE)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	11st 4lb
Ptit Zig (FR)	Paul Nicholls	11st 4lb
Return Spring (IRE)	Philip Hobbs	11st 4lb
Royal Player	Philip Hobbs	11st 4lb
Rule The World	M. F. Morris, Ireland	11st 4lb
Sausalito Sunrise (IRE)	Philip Hobbs	11st 4lb
Sego Success (IRE)	Alan King	11st 4lb
Shanahan's Turn (IRE)	Henry de Bromhead, Ireland	11st 4lb
Southfield Theatre (IRE)	Paul Nicholls	11st 4lb
Adriana des Mottes (FR)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	10st 9lb
Gitane du Berlais (FR)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	10st 9lb
Champagne West (IRE)		scratched
Saphir du Rheu (FR)	Paul Nicholls	scratched

Valseur Lido not in this either? Something must be wrong.

54 entries, only 37 in cmiyc's list! Noting starting with the letter T-Z.

Naught boy....had me reaching for the valium

Coming up

Apache Jack (IRE)	Ms Sandra Hughes, Ireland	11st 4lb
Apache Stronghold (IRE)	Noel Meade, Ireland	11st 4lb
Balbir du Mathan (FR)	Gordon Elliott, Ireland	11st 4lb
Band of Blood (IRE)	M. F. Morris, Ireland	11st 4lb
Benevolent (IRE)	Chris Bealby	11st 4lb
Blood Cotil (FR)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	11st 4lb
Carole's Destrier	Neil Mulholland	11st 4lb
Carraig Mor (IRE)	Alan King	11st 4lb
Cause of Causes (USA)	Gordon Elliott, Ireland	11st 4lb
Cogry	Nigel Twiston-Davies	11st 4lb
Coneygree	Mark Bradstock	11st 4lb
Deputy Dan (IRE)	Oliver Sherwood	11st 4lb
Don Poli (IRE)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	11st 4lb
Fine Rightly (IRE)	Stuart Crawford, Northern Ireland	11st 4lb
Generous Ransom (IRE)	Nick Gifford	11st 4lb
Grand Vision (IRE)	Colin Tizzard	11st 4lb
If In Doubt (IRE)	Philip Hobbs	11st 4lb
Irish Saint (FR)	Paul Nicholls	11st 4lb
Jarry d'Honneur (FR)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	11st 4lb
Kings Palace (IRE)	David Pipe	11st 4lb
Le Vent d'Antan (FR)	Miss Elizabeth Doyle, Ireland	11st 4lb
Mala Beach (IRE)	Gordon Elliott, Ireland	11st 4lb
Ned Stark (IRE)	Alan King	11st 4lb
Noble Emperor (IRE)	A. J. Martin, Ireland	11st 4lb
Perfect Gentleman (IRE)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	11st 4lb
Ptit Zig (FR)	Paul Nicholls	11st 4lb
Return Spring (IRE)	Philip Hobbs	11st 4lb
Royal Player	Philip Hobbs	11st 4lb
Rule The World	M. F. Morris, Ireland	11st 4lb
Sausalito Sunrise (IRE)	Philip Hobbs	11st 4lb
Sego Success (IRE)	Alan King	11st 4lb
Shanahan's Turn (IRE)	Henry de Bromhead, Ireland	11st 4lb
Southfield Theatre (IRE)	Paul Nicholls	11st 4lb
Splash of Ginge	Nigel Twiston-Davies	11st 4lb
Tango de Juilley (FR)	Venetia Williams	11st 4lb
The Ould Lad (IRE)	Tom George	11st 4lb
The Tullow Tank (IRE)	Ms Sandra Hughes, Ireland	11st 4lb
The Young Master	Neil Mulholland	11st 4lb
Thunder And Roses (IRE)	Ms Sandra Hughes, Ireland	11st 4lb
Uncle Jimmy (IRE)	Philip Hobbs	11st 4lb
Urano (FR)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	11st 4lb
Val de Ferbet (FR)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	11st 4lb
Valseur Lido (FR)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	11st 4lb
Vautour (FR)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	11st 4lb
Very Wood (FR)	Noel Meade, Ireland	11st 4lb
Wounded Warrior (IRE)	Noel Meade, Ireland	11st 4lb
As de Ferbet (FR)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	11st 2lb
Theatre Queen (IRE)	Mark Wall	10st 11lb
Tonvadosa	Donald McCain	10st 11lb
Vroum Vroum Mag (FR)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	10st 11lb
Adriana des Mottes (FR)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	10st 9lb
Gitane du Berlais (FR)	W. P. Mullins, Ireland	10st 9lb
Champagne West (IRE)		scratched
Saphir du Rheu (FR)	Paul Nicholls	scratched

54 ENTRIES

Why do people feel that Kings Palace has to lead, I wonder?

No doubting the irish form but Nicholls was unusually encouraging in the Autumn about Southfield theatre being ''hugely exciting'' and reckoning he'll make ''an awesome chaser''

He ticks all the usual boxes - A head off a festival win last year, all grit and now just needs to improve the jumping a little. Hopefully this is evident today as they've had a few months since it's last run.

He was conceding weight to Carraig Mor and even though that is hit and miss, if it wins a race you have to respect that bit of form considering how King has spoke of that since day 1.

Nicholls always had it as a long term chaser back when it was hurdling and a 150  novice chase rating in November is a solid start. Excited to see how he gets on today and should be able to turn it into a stamina race to see of melodic rendezvous who has good chase form working out too.

Took the 20/1 to win today and march on top of 20/1 single from November.

Could be a great race this year the RSA

very surprised to hear meade say apache stronghold isn't running in this and the jlt is his target...trip is hard to gauge for this trip less horse cheltenham wise but i thought they might just drop him out in the rsa as his jumping will be tested far more in the jlt...hey ho i'm struggling to find a bet in either race some very tough stuff for the punter to sort out imo

Dilemma indeed Harry. The JLT and RSA are both shaping up as brutal contests. Though VL may have been short of his best today on grounds of fitness, the Irish staying novice form through Apache Stronghold just seems to affirm what a good horse Don Poli is. Winning Festival form on faster ground just seem to boost his RSA credentials. He looks rock solid - I suspect he would go very close in the JLT if he contested it.

keep looking at this apache stronghold - he wants a trip imo he was holding the second all the way to the line at the same pace...i'd punt if i was meade on the rsa

at the end of the day if we are judging the horse staying by his run on bottomless ground at christmas it is a tad harsh imo

i would back him in an open rsa if he went that way

I'm with you 100% Harry. Should defo go RSA and Coneygree &/or Kings Palace would could set it up for him perfectly.

I had £15 @ 66/1 to win today and at chelt in any race, but I'd be far far happier if he turned up in the RSA

nice little bet that tory tbh...but i'd want him in the rsa if i was you like you say, plus you can lay him short in the run as well...i've put a tenner up for those that want to get out of the bet at 28 and more will be accommodated when meade sees sense

thx for matching have put some more up

His overall profile just screams RSA to me. I also put up on some thread here that the sectional times of the Topaz suggest that DP out sprinted AS rather than out staying him.

Don't think he'll beat Vautour or Ptit Zig in the JLT, but he'd have one hell of a chance in the RSA. He also tops my trends spreadsheet for the RSA

Going JLT re trainer.

Southfield Theatre the one for this. Fits every stat going, been trained for the race all season, solid jumper and is massive ew value at 14-1

Southfield doesn't hit the 'only one season over hurdles stat', but other than that he's very solid. Will Prob be my bet on the day

When Coneygree beat Dell’ Arca in November in the Grade 2 Berkshire Chase at Newbury, my colleague Mark Olley was impressed enough to allocate him a 147 performance figure, the same as his hurdle rating, writes Phil Smith (Senior Handicapper).

It is very rare that a 140 hurdler can replicate that level in its first chase but the time was excellent and both Dell’ Arca (over hurdles) and the third horse Horatio Hornblower subsequently confirmed the form.

After Coneygree’s win in the Kauto Star (Feltham) Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, I wrote that I did not know what rating to give him as the race fell apart, but that the time compared well with that of Silviniaco Conti. I admitted that I might have been 9lb too low. The reality is that I was probably more like a stone too low.

After Saturday’s win in the Betfair Denman Chase I am totally convinced. Both Houblon des Obeaux and Unioniste have solid handicap form against established mature 3m chasers and they were blown away in a stunning time. For me it was the best performance at 3m by a novice since Gloria Victis and I now have Coneygree on 166, which was the mark allocated to Gloria Victis after he won the Racing Post Chase in February 2000.

Yes, better than Denman as a novice, whose highest rating was 161 after he won the 2007 RSA Chase, which may well be Coneygree’s next race.

So what can beat him if he does go there? Possibly King’s Palace who remains on 156 after a marginally disappointing run at Newbury – he ran about 5lb below his best. He is clearly better than that. He has also run over fences at Cheltenham whereas Coneygree has not.

Apache Stronghold, Valseur Lido, The Young Master and Don Poli, who are all over 150, make this year’s renewal of the RSA look a potentially vintage one at this stage. Should Coneygree head for the Gold Cup, however, the benchmark is set at 173, courtesy of Silviniaco Conti.

Has anyone else heard anything about Adriana Des mottes for this race? I see she's a huge price - but 2 people have mentioned this horse to me in the last day or so. I wondered whether it's because she might be a possible ride for Ruby in a race where he has no obvious mount?

Meade: Very Wood lost it but he started to buzz a month and we knew we had him back. His owner is keen to go for the RSA.

Meade: It is likely Very Wood and Wounded Warrior will be split up.