Cheltenham Festival
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Looks a cracker to my eyes. Some of this lot could be very useful and looking further ahead may blow the old brigade away, this time next year.
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Looks the strongest of the three novice chases.
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Good luck to anyone doing a JLT,RSA Double!!
 Got to be more decent novice chasers ive seen for a long time, probably ever. Really difficult to decide which ones are in which one let alone getting stuck in antepost. |
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I've left the RSA well alone so far. Of all the Grade 1's, I think its only that and the Mares where I haven't got anything yet.
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* Should add Triumph and Supreme to that as well!
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Kings Palace a ridiculous price. I want to see him taken on, have to change gameplan, pressured jumping etc.
Don Poli should be 4/1 favourite |
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Hope you've done your bets mate.
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I couldn't have Kings Palace either.
He reminds me of Ballycasey last year, and I was against him. He seems a bit too flashy to win an RSA, think you need one who is a no nonsense stayer, who gets the job done, like a Coneygree. As I said, I haven't had a bet in this, and with each week a new contender emerges to muddy the water even more! |
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its just hard to imagine kings palace having the engine to keep the rest at bay and sit there on the bridle which i think is the only way he can win
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Coneygree one ive been most impressed with,but I aint going anywhere near this race with half decent money till the day. Far too many novices around and too much guessing at this stage as to what races they will all be in.
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I've backed 2 in this. Coneygree 25/1 and Champagne West 20/1. Looks a hot race though. Coneygree reminds me of Mr Mulligan just jumps better.
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I like Coneygree too. Jumped very well at Kempton and we know he stays. The ground is unlikely to be idea for him but he will certainly keep Kings Palace honest.
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I've backed Champagne West too, simply on the basis that he's the only one so far who has the ideal profile from a trends perspective. Needs a good showing on New Years Day though and it may well be that, with so many of them around this year, the actual winner misses a trend or two. Would you believe that 10/10 started in chases at 2.5m and less - that would be an issue regards Kings Palace.
All of the others at the forefront of the market have a slightly less than normal profile. Don Poli - 6 Valseur Lido - 6 and French Bred Whisper - french bred and second season hurdler Coneygree - won the Feltham and 8 Saphir Du Rheu - 6, french bred, second season hurdler Southfield Theatre - second season hurdler The Young Master - 6, second season hurdler Apache Stronghold - no chelt experience, though that's not as big an issue |
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You could actually argue that Don Poli is more or less a french bred which would be against him as well
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Is this race really hotting up to be such a good a field with dozens of exceptional horses possibly lining up in it? I'm not so sure and reckon there is some good value to be had by having a bet now!
Kings palace - very short in the betting, last years AB run lives long in the memory Whisper - injured? Pont Alexandre - injured? Coneygree - needs soft? Apache stronghold - JLT? Valseur lido - JLT? Sapphire du rheu - JLT or misses cheltenham? Southfield theatre - not good enough? The young master - handicap? The 2 I've left out Don poli and Champagne west are the 2 I think have the right profile for the race and are a little bit of value |
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Is don poli a certain runner. Trainer has mentioned the 4 miler and paddy power have priced as though that's where he's likely to run.
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Nothing certain in Willie's World formboy. Be interesting to see if he runs in the Moriarty. That would be the most likely hint that he'll contest the RSA. I think the horse is far too good to run the the NH Chase and wouldn't want to entrust him to an amateur jockey.
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I agree you shouldn't read too much into what he says, however Paddy Power have a good idea what races his runners are likely to run in and they go shortest for the 4 miler and longest fort the RSA.
As you say his next run will indicate his likely Cheltenham target. |
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Gigginstown have plenty of novices this year but I'd be surprised if they sent their Group 1 winning 3 miler to the Listed National Hunt Chase.
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A lot will depend on what the likes of Valseur Lido and Rule The World do in the meantime. If they win their preps they could have a decent chance in each of the four novice chases: Clarcam 2m, Rule The World 2m4f, Valsuer Lido 3m and Don Poli 4m.
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Don Poli has just won what looked a very strong 3m novice chase. Surely he's too good for the 4 miler.
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If Gigginstown think he might be a Gold Cup horse in 2016, then they won't want Patrick Mullins making an arse of him in a 4 mile slog. It would be the most bizarre Gold Cup preparation imaginable.
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^^^ agree crossed my mind this.
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He aint too good for any race that I can see......why are a load on here going on about how good he is???
Cos Mullins says hes a gold cup horse?? well maybe he is,and maybe I do the horse a disservice,but listening to mullins and betting accordingly aint advisable imo,especially with his Gold cup record. |
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As soon as Mullins said he's "nailed on" to run in the 4-miler it was pretty obvious the RSA was the target.
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That Rule the World should have the speed for a 2m race seeing as he won The Derby over 12f. The QMCC and Derby
would be a nice double to have on his CV. |
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I'll give you 1000000/1 for him to do the double Pete
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Im going to watch the race again,as I seem to be rather in a minority re Don Poli.
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I don't mind what Mullins said Budd, for me both Don Poli and Apache stronghold are two serious horses. I think Don Poli is the horse to beat in whatever race he goes for, whether that be the RSA or the four miler. Far and away prefer him to Kings Palace.
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I'll give you 1000000/1 for him to do the double Pete
Not quite enough  I expect it was an old joke anyway. |
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I think this time next year Kings Palace will be near the head of the Ryanair market.
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I'm with you Budd. The toughest horse won yesterday and you can't knock him for that, but am sure something with a bit more speed will have him over 3m at Cheltenham on likely faster ground.
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Well that's 2 of us Shock
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Without meaning to take away from the Don Poli debate, does anyone know if Sausalito Sunrise was ok after his fall on Boxing Day? Looking at the NH Novices and he has a very appealing profile.
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Pont Alex looks a NR judging by the market on here but Mark Howard gave quite an upbeat assessment in the Xmas update
PONT ALEXANDRE: Last seen finishing third in the Neptune NH at Cheltenham in March 2013, he is due to make his return to action in February with the RSA Chase his most likely target in the spring. The six year old has done a lot of work at home and remains an exciting prospect for chasing. A feb start surely throws RSA participation into doubt? |
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Pont Alex looks a NR judging by the market on here but Mark Howard gave quite an upbeat assessment in the Xmas update
PONT ALEXANDRE: Last seen finishing third in the Neptune NH at Cheltenham in March 2013, he is due to make his return to action in February with the RSA Chase his most likely target in the spring. The six year old has done a lot of work at home and remains an exciting prospect for chasing. A feb start surely throws RSA participation into doubt? |
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For those of you who think that Don Poli lacks speed, he beat Caid Du Berlais 6 lengths (levels) in the boys race over 2 and a half miles at Cheltenham (good) and was beaten a length by Beat That (good to yielding) at Punchestown, his best 2 pieces of form over hurdles. He is likely to improve for better ground, not be disadvantaged.
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I'm with budd and shockster. Clearly he's a good horse, and a real strayer, but think he is very short for Chelts. Can't understand the nativity towards Kings Palace myself. Looked a superstar this season and very worth fav for me. Think his run last year obviously has a lot to do with it, but He has shown the course suits him now, and I think that was just an off day myself.
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Nativity FFS!! Negativity...
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Xmas was last week CCM!....
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