Cheltenham Festival
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Peace & Co
Peace & Co
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There was a lot of talk, starting about 2008/2009 if memory serves me regarding Aga Khan bred horses starting to come to the fore in the Triumph hurdle, they have a good record. Not sure about going back all the way to 2002 though. If you are talking dosage, then breeding should yield some clues.
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Tory, can't remember exactly but think it was about 1995 when the new drainidge went in. The track has been a lot drier since and could have been the difference.
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Quite briefly, the last 10yr dosage range for the triumph is:
DI: 0.43 - 1.32 average of 0.90 CD: -0.30 - 0.39 average of 0.05 Peace And Co out of interest for this thread is 1.91 and 0.56. If you go back all the way to 1994 then 4 horses are as high or higher than Peace and Co. Scolardy 2.00 and 0.50 in 2002 Snow Drop 5.00 and 1.17 in 2000 Upgrade 2.14 and 0.77 in 1998 Kissair 1.91 and 0.81 1995 |
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Just curious as to where you get the dosage figures from, Tory - do you calculate them yourself? Am wondering where I could get the data needed to look at the runners in a given race, such as the Albert Bartlett, for example.
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http://www.pedigreequery.com
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Thank you!
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No worries. This is the first year I've done it and I've found it a really useful exercise. Makes the RSA market look very interesting!
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Yeah, these things aren't always my bag, but they might well throw up the odd very interesting stat.
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Thanks Tory. If the dosage index is correct am I correct in suggesting that Peace And Co is unlikely to stay the distance of the race based on the last ten years of the race?
It's an interesting one for sure and given that, you'd be hoping for decent ground having backed him but by the time of the race it will be nearly a year and he had already won in France over the distance and his full brother has won a hurdle over two furlongs further. I guess Cheltenham trials day will give us further clues. |
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All of these things are open to interpretation but you could certainly say that based upon the last 10yrs he's an unlikely/unusual winner based upon his dosage.
Every now and then you can get a random result, Sizing Europe for example is a very unusual winner in this sense for the CC. From what I know different dosages tend to perform better on different tracks, and you could argue that the Triumph won't suit P&C as well as other races or tracks. It's something to bear in mind when looking at backing a horse, especially one as short as he is now. |
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Indeed and suggests that it is a wise decison to target Cheltenham later in the month as a dress rehearsal.
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Looks an Aintree horse to me personally. Laughable price at the moment for the Triumph. Even 5-1 was stupidity at that stage.
Get on Hargam ew at 14-1 troops |
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I do find it odd when people try to apply things from flat racing to jumps. It shows which of the two codes is their preferred.
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If that was meant for me then I can assure you that I don't give two hoots about flat racing. I'm all about the jumps and cheltenham is the be all and end all for me!
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Me neither!
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All this old dosage index talk in last 20 posts. Jumps at the top level is about what horses do on the track, vast majority are bought after they have run a p2p or run in France. So they know what they can do. To then try reduce them to an old pre widespread information era thing like dosage - especially over jumps - is very crude. Trying to bring racing down to a simple number someone can calculate goes against my vast experience in statistics.
Racing is a multitute of factors. Account for all is my belief. The sheer amount of energy Peace and Co saves by his hurdling is the key to him imv. Anyway, found it odd to see dosage brought up in relation to jumps is all. |
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I think Tory's earlier post sums up how this may be useful.
I for one would never use statistics to make my mind up for me when I believe your own eyes tell you more than pedigrees, or speed figures, or RPRs ever can. That said, if something as genetically fundamental to a horse as the dosage index suggests a short-priced runner is way outside the typical range for a winner of a certain race, I'd want to know about it to at least factor that in to my thinking. |
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can be a very good tool tory...i just haven't the time at present...will be very interested what you come up with if you get time...a chap i know used it to his advantage in the gold cup last year and it certainly helps, it is just another tool to add to your betting armoury and certainly a good one to boot
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Not enough evidence as only 20 samples from eras including races prior to new drainage & prior to introduction of Fred Winter. Plus the dosage index being crude and more applicable to flat racing where the energy saved via jumping skill is not a factor.
The horse is 5/2 after two career runs, you don't need much to be put off backing it. Too many unknowns and random variables to touch such a price antepost on a Juvenile in my opinion. |
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Where I would be interested in looking at such a thing would be in something like The Gold Cup. It's unique in the demands it places on the best horses. We've seen many times they may go there the best 3 miler (One Man/Wayward Lad) but they might not get home or collapse in a heap. Then you get some which aren't near the best over 3 miles but come alive going up that hill three times and with the extra quarter mile (Sir Rembrandt etc).
That is a fascinating race for so many reasons and we have come off the back of an era of being spoiled by the predictability of the likes of Denman and Kauto running well because they were much better than most of their contemporaries. In this era we may just need to get picking the horses which are close enough and which will be suited to those demands. I don't suppose it matters if it is dosage index, going directly off direct breeding or trusting our judgement or gut feeling. It's all a part of the jogsaw and the more pieces you have the better I'd think. |
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Every Gold Cup since Kautos win in 2007 has been won by very strong stayers. Denman, Kauto, Imperial Commander, Long Run, Synchronised, Bobs Worth, Lord Windermere all strong strong stayers that powered up the hill (Denman faded up the hill actually) But it shows they have to really stay.
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It's A Priori that they have to stay. It's idnetifying the ones with a bit of class about them which will stay which is the bugger sometimes. Until they actually did it you'd have asked questions about several of those like Kauto, Long Run and Imperial.
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Yeah people had arguments that Kauto didn't fully stay the trip because his 2007 win had far too many horses in contention turning in and it pointed to a less than strongly run race. Obviously he answered that question in some style in 2009. Shows how hard it is to fully know what is strong staying with enough class to still be there when it's needed. Easier in recent years as they've been by and large weak races.
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Weaker races and the drainage helps. It doesn't get to the state it did back in the 80's for instance when they needed snorkels and flippers turning for home. Being out there for nearly a minute longer in some instances and ploughing through the mud wasn't for the fancy dans.
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Henderson after Top Notch's win yesterday ...
They didn´t go that slow but it still looked a bit of a dash up the straight. Top Notch enjoyed himself. Simon and Issac have a fair hand and there´s no point chucking them all in. Peace And Co has to do again what he did the other day but if what was very obvious at Doncaster comes up again at Cheltenham next weekend he might be the one. This horse would be good back-up if that was the case. - Nicky Henderson, trainer. |
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Peace and Co is 4/6 currently for Saturday.
Based on the views of some on here, coupled with his nearest rivals are 25/1 in the Triumph, is that price buying money??? |
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It has to be in their opinion.
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Mortgage job on the peace & co un de sceaux double
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The bookies will lay that all day.
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"buying money" aaaaah...... i love that phrase. Commonly heard amongst the FOBT brigade
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It's a peculair turn of phrase and puts me in mind of a numpty handing over tenners to get their hands on fivers.
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Seeing as CO and SCEAUX rhyme...perhaps someone could come up with some clever "buying money" rap!!!....also these two horses happen to have 3 syllable names....so they could fit into the CHAM...PI...ON the wonder horse tune!!!!spooky
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You reckon both will be beaten then Collector??
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That 4/6 could look quite big come the off time
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I backed Ibis 48s and Zarib @ 75s on here in the triumph. Only a couple of quid on each but would like to see them both run decent races for a trade off
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^^ Ibis is a very interesting runner tomorrow, espcecially with his famous connections. This will definitely give us a bit more of a handle on whether P&C may be the real deal.
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should be a nice tester for peace and co tomorrow, on his favoured so far soft conditions...looking forward to seeing him again and some nice horses in opposition who also like soft ground running...
should be a good race and we can find out where we are with him and put some kind of rating on him...the nicholls horse is interesting and some nice solid juveniles in the race |
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also doesn't look like another front runner in the race so will be interesting if they try and restrain him...i'd imagine he'll make the running again
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Looks like he's after winning ..... I missed the race.
So is the dream still alive? Champion Hurdle 2016 |
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won nicely, they crawled and front two pulled well clear.
hes far too short though at sub 2/1 beating karzeak a couple of lengths ties in very closely with other triumph hopefuls for all that he did it cosily |