Cheltenham Festival
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The Champion Hurdle
The Champion Hurdle
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 at Harchibald losing because of a bad ride. |
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Who knows, I backed Brave Inca that day
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Great race though,mullins won't make the mistake of not having faugheen fit !
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By the way, the five-year-old stat is carp too...
The five-year-olds to have run in it with reasonable chances have performed quite well - or about as well as could have been expected... I agree with CV here - people using throwaway stats with our either thinking why they exist in the first place in an attempt to understand them, or simply using them wrongly, is so frustrating. He's quite right about the calendar year stats - how many horses with good chances have gone there without a run for 10 weeks and disappointed. If that figure is much higher than expected then fair enough, but if the majority have been considered no-hopers, it's a pointless statistic. Around about 32% (I think) of all races are won by the favourite - that doesn't mean that you'd get rich by backing every favourite that starts at bigger than 2/1! |
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It's how you look at it. You could look at the calender year stat and conclude that this is not the best preparation for a CH hope as it if it was, other trainers would have taken the approach and won.
Maybe the reason no contender less than 10/1 or whatever has gone there without a run in 10 weeks is because the consensus among the top trainers would be - they should have a run within 10 weeks....if you get me Of course, I'm not saying this to be the case, merely saying it's another way of interpreting the info and putting a reason for it's existence beside it. |
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It's worse in football Tom. Like say Everton haven't scored in the 2nd half of their past 6 games. What on earth has that got to do with anything? What if they were winning 2-0 in each of those games at half time. They don't need to score in the second half. Aston Villa haven't won away to Crystal Palace in their last 8 visits. That spanned 16 years or something. It's SOOOO annoying.
Recent years we've had Montjeu hasn't won at the festival. The regain the crown stuff for Kauto and Hurricane Fly. Ruby Walsh and not riding a chase winner at the festival since Kauto Star. Henderson has never won the Neptune. I mean random sequences happen in all sports, I don't understand the point of the randomness being brought up. I rolled a dice 6 times and git a 6 every time. Surely that proves 6 is by far the most likely outcome of all further dice rolls. |
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so we will have some stats but not others :)
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past 6 games one thing stats from 50 yrs quite another !
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CV makes some excellent points in here but christ if someone has a different point of view, open your ears man
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I rolled a dice 6 times and git a 6 every time. Surely that proves 6 is by far the most likely outcome of all further dice rolls.
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Technically you roll a die, not a dice....just saying
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fecking good point cheif x
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chief
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wellchief 02 Feb 15 21:41 Joined: 17 Dec 09 | Topic/replies: 2,043 | Blogger: wellchief's blog
Technically you roll a die, not a dice. laughed out loud at that one. Top marks Chief |
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if you roll two dice what is the score that will appear most often?
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Faugheen
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7, as there are 6 ways to roll a 7 on two dice.
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Here is the list of horses without a run in the same year, will return later with probabilities. I mentioned those that had a run just before 1st january.
1990 - 5th. Morley Street(10/1), 12th. Space Fair(150/1) 1991 - 14th. Vayrua (33/1), 18th. Vestris Abu(33/1) 1992 - 0 1993 - 1st. Granville Again(Christmas Hurdle, 13/2 ), 5th. Oh So Risky (Christmas Hurdle, 10/1 ), 6th. Vintage Crop( 9/1 ), 1994 - 9th. Halkopous(Christmas Hurdle, 13/2 ), PU. Morley Street ( 16/1 ), 1995 - 3rd. Danoli ( 4/1 JF), 9th. Montelado ( 10/1 ), 11th. Destriero ( 33/1 ), 12th. Granville Again( 100/1 ), PU. Bold Boss ( 50/1 ) 1996 - 13th. Kissair ( 66/1 ) 1997 - 0 1998 - 4th. Pridwell ( 9/1 ) 1999 - 4th. Mister Morose(26 Dec, 100/1 ) 2000 - 4th. Ashley Park ( 25 /1 ), 11th Make A Stand ( 33/1 ) 2002 - 5th. Landing Light(Christmas Hurdle , 100/30 ), 7th. Mr Cool (100/1), 10th. Chimes At Midnight (150/1), 11th. Rostropovich (29 Dec, 100/1), PU. Istabraq (29 Dec, 2/1 F), SU. Valiramix( 3/1) 2003 - 5th. Intersky Falcon(Christmas Hurdle, 5/1 ), 7th. Landing Light ( 14/1 ), 9th. Santenay (Christmas Hurdle, 33/1 ) 2004 - 0 2005 - 2nd. Harchibald (Christmas Hurdle, 7/1 ), 6th. Intersky Falcon( 40/1 ), 9th. Back In Front (7/2 JF), 2006 - 11th. Intersky Falcon(Christmas Hurdle, 66/1 ), 2007 - 8th. Marble Garden ( 250/1 ), 2008 - 2nd. Osana ( 9/2 ), 4th. Sublimity ( 7/1 ) , 8th. Farmer Brown(29 Dec , 50/1 ), 13th. Contraband ( 250/1 ) 2009 - 3rd. Binocular ( 6/4 F) , 4th. Crack Away Jack ( 16/1 ), 6th. Katchit ( 12/1 ), 8th. Jered ( 33/1 ), 10th. Won In The Dark(29 Dec, 33/1 ), 13th. Blue Bajan(Christmas Hurdle, 80/1 ), 14th. Sentry Duty( 33/1 ), 17. Harchibald (Christmas Hurdle, 33/1 ), PU. Cybergenic ( 250/1 ), F. Othermix ( 100/1 ) 2010 - 2nd. Khyber Kim( 7/1 ), 5th. Starluck (Christmas Hurdle 14/1 ), 10th. Go Native(Christmas Hurdle 11/4 F), 2011 - 5th. Menorah ( 3/1 2F), 6th. Clerk's Choice( 50/1 ), 2012 - 1st. Rock On Ruby(Christmas Hurdle, 11/1), 2nd. Overturn (Christmas Hurdle, 20/1), 2013 - F. Grandouet ( 13/2 ), 2014 - 3rd. The New One(Christmas Hurdle, 100/30) 2 winners of 57 runners at odds 13/2, 11/1 2 winners of 14 runners last time out of Christmas Hurdle (13/2, 10/1, 13/2, 100/30, 5/1, 33/1, 7/1, 66/1, 80/1, 33/1, 14/1, 11/4, 11/1, 20/1, 100/30) - these are the horses which went directly to CH from Christmas hurdle) The most important thing to consider about the above is that the trainer's bias comes into play so whatever the above probability figures are showing you need to further downgrade the chances due to fact that most trainers will know that they can't win the CH without having a prep race so they run their horses 1-2 months prior to the big race. Same goes for age(older than 10), gender(mares only 2 winners from 25-30 runners(6% SR) which due to the trainers bias its quite a big probability however if the trainers would've been blind to the stats they've would've entered much more mares in the CH therefore the probability of winning the CH with a mare would show smaller percentages(less than 1% strike rate) ) |
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good lad cv
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Only recent data is of any use as training standards in the 90's is a world away from the big stables now. 2009 has so many horses with no prep run because of the weather. In these situations a horse missing it's prep run, ie Binocular is different to a horse deliberatly going straight there from the Christmas Hurdle ie Rock on Ruby.
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How is it different? They both miss the prep run.
Take only the last 20 years data and it looks even worse as Granville Again won't be included. |
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makes you wonder why footie teams bother with pre season and why usain bolt doesn't automatically get a place in the olympic final.....
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Henderson intended to get a prep run into Binocular in 2009, his plans were thwarted by the weather. So the plan the trainer had was not executed. With Rock on Ruby the plan was to not have another run so the training was tailored around getting him fit for the day.
There is a big difference. You'd imagine Binocular was going to be 90% fit when he was intended to have his prep. Also Go Native got injured in 2010 and was off the track for 2 years. While obviously TNO was badly hampered last year. |
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Two points here though - firstly, there are a good few in that list of 57 that hit the frame, which you wouldn't expect if it was such a barrier to winning (surely), and secondly, as CV says, modern training methods are a heck of a lot more advanced than back in the day. If you looked at the last four runners, we had two placed and one winner at 11/1! I'm not suggesting that is fair, but merely pointing out the folly of simply producing numbers to back up certain beliefs.
More important than ANY of this back and forth is the simple question: Do you believe Willie Mullins can get Faugheen fit enough for the Champion Hurdle? I'm not completely sold on him but there is not 1% of me that worries he'll fail through lack of fitness. |
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So when you add up the % chances of horses since 2005 until now of winning you get 190%, and factor in a 115% book and you get approx 165%. Which means 1.65 Champion Hurdles should have been won by horses with no prep run in calendar year. For that we've had 1 winner in Rock on Ruby and 3 seconds, Harchibald, Overturn & Khyber Kim.
(I excluded TNO and Go Native for reasons stated below) |
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they should also scrap queens before Wimbledon I mean whats the point...
Do you believe Willie Mullins can get Faugheen fit enough for the Champion Hurdle? NO |
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Only Harry can get a horse fit enough to win the Champion Hurdle without a prep
 #legend |
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I think you.ll admit it was a underperforming HF with overturn 2nd
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underperforming/problems that season..
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imo you get a horse fit on the gallops you get them race fit on the course..
did the ascot race bring faugheen on, of course it did, was he fitter, of course he was, the oppo he has faced is another argument altogether.... im a faugheen fan, just don,t think he has prepped great if im honest.... not his fault there was no oppo in the kemp race you can only beat whats in front of you.... |
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Based on the odds of the 57 runners there should've been at least 5 winners(8.8% percentage of 57 runners).
10 runners with odds of 5/1 and lower and also 5 favourites or joint fav. without any of them winning the CH. If we only the narrow look only from 2005 onwords based on the odds from all the runners there should've been 2 winners (8.1% of 26)(excluding TNO and Go Native), or 3 winners(9.4% percentage of 28 runners) ( including TNO and Go Native). However anyone working with stats will tell you that the more data you have the more accurate the results are so by taking only stats from last 9 years you learn little, especially regarding horse fitness which is required now and was also required 50 years ago. Consider also trainers bias and the win chances are getting even lower. |
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Only Harry can get a horse fit enough to win the Champion Hurdle without a prep #legend
After timing at its best, you were in tears ripping up your hurricane fly slips at the time!!! |
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If we include back to 1990's we are going into the era where trainers needed to run horses to get them fit. The modern era is different. So yes you could increase the sample size by going further and further back but the correlation is reduced.
Also you are not accounting for the bookie over round. Chances of winning implied by odds isn't representative of real chance of winning. You need to adjust for a 115% book approx. While we also should qualify deliberatly going to the race without a run in calendar year as opposed to missing an intended prep. One is a planned action, one is unplanned. |
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Rampage Jackson 02 Feb 15 22:52 Joined: 10 Nov 05 | Topic/replies: 147 | Blogger: Rampage Jackson's blog
Only Harry can get a horse fit enough to win the Champion Hurdle without a prep #legend After timing at its best, you were in tears ripping up your hurricane fly slips at the time!!! Yay more morons come along to have a comment. How on planet earth is that an after time? Did I say I had backed Rock on Ruby? Or am I calling Harry a Legend because I know him, am part of a racing club which have 4 horses in training with him. Am going to buy another horse with him and am going down to Seabrough next week? Now run along you idiot. |
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sorry cv but the all weather gallop is nothing like race conditions imo of course....
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I don't get what you mean alleged, can you clarify that?
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what im saying cv is trainers can get horses fit via the gallops fto etc as the facilities have altered for the good but to send the horse to the biggest race of his life short of match practise is daft imo
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Even if unplanned the horse still lacks race fitness, thats the point of this debate when a horse comes from a long break into such a big race where almost all other runners bring their A form to the table while yours lacks proper fitness which horses can only get in a proper race not at home gallops.
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do you play sport cv?
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