Cheltenham Festival
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The Gold Cup
The Gold Cup
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Think the KG clears the mist..Only looks like Conti from that lot stands a chance in Gold Cup ..Now for the lexus
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Thinl Al Ferof showed hes a gold cup horse,can see him running a big race.....3m2f at his fav track,what hes been wanting imo.
Still not sure about Conti, just think the course don't suit,he surely should have won last time jumping the last in front. Flat track hes the best around, but Cheltenham??? |
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Also don't see Cfever in the race now,would not be surprised if he went back to the Queen Mum if SS and SDG are still struggling, but Ryanair probably most likely.
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I think the cheekpieces may have won Conti the race last year, and from my pocket perspective, he's now by far my biggest potential winner at Cheltenham, so I'm hoping they work this year.
I can't see anyone turning the form round from the King George, and I think he is a good few pounds better than anything over here. Still a wide open race though, as suggested by the market - he has won the two major GB G1 trials, and is still available at 9/2. In some other races, some horses have won one egg and spoon race and are shorter for their Cheltenham target! |
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Probably cos hes failed in the race twice Chief.
Plus its a bl00dy hard race to win. Agree hes a few pounds better, but imo thats well nullified at Cheltenham.....I still remember Nicholls saying hes better on flat tracks,everything I have seen since that comment justifies it. |
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True Budd, but I think the race was kind of handed to Lord Windermere last year - I've never seen a finish like that. He has less than 2 lengths to make up with him, and I think he is a better horse this year, and the cheekpieces will help at Cheltenham.
The first time he was travelling really well when falling, so I can forgive him that one, as I think he'd have gone close. He was only 7 then, and he's a much stronger animal and better jumper now. |
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He was travelling well last time when he didn't fall,he still got beat by Bolster and on his own,as well as LW.
Maybe Cheekpieces are the answer mate,who knows? But im sticking to the course stopping him winning a gold cup.He was really tired on the run in, I think the course does that to him. |
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I hope they still aim Champagne Fever at the Gold Cup. Good ground at Cheltenham are this horse's ideal conditions. I thought he ran quite well yesterday on unsuitable ground. It would be interesting to hear what Walsh and Mullins thought of the run. Rather than not stay as some are saying, I thought he just couldn't quicken in the ground. Silviniaco Conti left him for dead after the third last but he stuck on and was only just caught for third on the line.
Also I read a comment yesterday saying he doesn't jump well enough. He's one of the best jumpers in training in my opinion and his run display of jumping in the Arkle last season was one of the highlights of 2014. Champagne Fever is a horse who should be rubbing shoulders with the big boys in the Gold Cup. Leave the Ryanair to the Dynaste's and the Cue Card's of this world. |
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Champagne Fever has absolutely no chance of staying the Gold Cup trip. Was the biggest lay out yesterday cos he wasn't gonna stay 3m. Went from 7-2 to 6-1 with bookies begging to lay it and the inevitable happened 2f out when he went backwards. This horse is a class animal but they are arsing around with him, as they do with quite a few horses in this stable. Should be going to make all in a Champion Chase. Only beat a short head in the Arkle so what exactly are they thinking about here? 2m chase division full of donkeys with Sacre and SDG on sidelines.
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Problem is its another 2 furlongs at Cheltenham, he looked to me like a horse that's ran as far as he wants to.
The ground was ok yesterday,no excuse there imo. |
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Could see after 2 fences he was never getting home yesterday. Far too keen.
To back up what I said so it is not aftertiming...twitter feeds below The Collector @thecollectorpro @BillEsdaile just don't think he stays.no 3m form and this race is won by gold cup horses 0 replies 0 retweets 0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More 12:14 PM - 26 Dec 2014 |
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Without SS and SDG the QM would be up for grabs, and Arkle horses normally do well in this race,its a natural progression. If I owned CF he would get an entry in the QM and Ryanair and make me mind up near the day.
I would forget the Gold Cup. |
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14-1 for Champion Chase the bet of the season if you knew he was going there
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The horse is bred for the this kind of distance and was bought as a potential staying chaser. Kicking King was not beaten far in an Arkle, and he ended up a GC winner. Tidal Bay an Arkle winner in 2008 was a proper stayer. My Way De Solzen was a World Hurdle winner when he won the Arkle. There's plenty of reason to persist at 3m+ distances.
Also I can't agree he didn't stay. That's just conforming to the popular opinion before the race. He was left for dead after the third last and kept going at the same pace all the way to the line. It's more like he didn't quicken and that's possibly due to the ground. His best form is in the Spring on better ground. |
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Well somethings wrong here.
He was caught on the run in by Al Ferof whose trainer now says is going for the Champion Chase!! That tells ne Nicholls thinks hes a non stayer, so hows he beating Cfever on the run in over 3m??? My feeling is Al Ferof has more chance of staying than CFever based on yesterdays run. Still not sure what you mean re the ground, it was fine yesterday and probably not much different to what it will be in March,good/soft good in places. No excuses there surely. |
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The time was 2 seconds quicker than last year with Silviniaco Conti blazing off. Ground in Cheltenham is always quicker than what you get at Kempton at Christmas.
I wouldn't be comparing Champagne Fever to Al Ferof. Champagne Fever has stuck on at his own pace on unsuitable ground. That's my interpretation of events. It would be interesting to hear what Mullins and Walsh are thinking though. |
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Well I was just saying Nicholls thinks Al Ferof is a queen mum horse and he outstayed Cfever.
Still maybe Nicholls is wrong.....I think he is, or at least my eyes tell me he is anyway. |
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Trouble with the Ricci non novices, I think CF, Balleycasey and Djakadam are all very similar trip wise.
I think he'll have one in the QMCC and 2 in the Ryanair, or vice versa. Ballycasy's performance today might clear things up a bit. They have tried all three of them over staying trips, and all three imo didn't stay in their respective races. Although CF has an excellent Cheltenham record, I don't see how an extra 2 furlongs will help me overturn a 10 length defecit to Conti. Still have to think that he has only won 2 of 6 chase starts, neither of which were graded races (although he did go very close in 1!). His Supreme form reads fantastically, with MTOY and Jezki in last year's CH, but his chase form is a shadow of that. |
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Mullins said they won't try Champagne Fever over 3 miles again. If Sprinter Sacre looks good on his come back then I'd imagine Fever will go for Ryanair.
But for me his a high 160's horse at his best. Not good enough to win any race bar the Ryanair. That's only race I'll have any interest in backing him for. TBH Conti will take all the beating, had he had the Cheek Pieces on in March he'd have won and not wandered around. That was awesome from him yesterday. |
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Where did you read that Conor regarding Champagne?
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Willie Mullins said on RTE that was best run ever but they will have change course with him now. Presumably means step down in trip which I would disagree with.
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Said it all along, CF needs to be sent from the front and allowed to stride on over 2 miles...he didn't go hard enough in the arkle hence them all being in a heap turning in...allow him to use his stride and get them in trouble, aside from SS in that race who's iffy at this stage, CF has nothing else to fear in the Queen Mum.
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It was in the Racingpost. I'll retype exactly what he said
"I think that's as good as he is. I doubt we'll stay at 3 miles, we'll have a look and probably come back in trip" My own opinion is it's a bad idea to pitch a horse into that type of G1 level over a new trip. Champagne Fever should have run at Down Royal. I'd love to know how many horses have won the King George on their first try at 3 miles? |
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Cheers fellas.
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Though today he said this "That's probably as good as he is. He'll probably get an entry in the Gold Cup, but he'd need to improve about a stone on the King George run to have a chance."
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I personally like 2nd season chasers for the Gold Cup, so he was one of interest. However I think I know where I am with him now.
He travelled and jumped well yesterday and was perfectly placed if good enough. |
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CV Byrne....you ask how many have won a King George on first try at 3m but you backed Champagne Fever on your twitter blog and laid ther arse off Silvi win and place no?
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Follow Conor Byrne @cvbyrne My King George Preview. Essentially Lay Conti, back Fever & Menorah http://jumpsadviser.com/king-george/ #KingGeorge 0 replies 0 retweets 0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More 11:31 AM - 24 Dec 2014 That you CV Byrne yeah? |
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Retweet Favorite
More Conor Byrne @cvbyrne · Dec 23 Going through the King George and the only solid angle I can take is to Lay Sil Conti win/plc as it'll be good ground and he'll be outpaced 0 replies 1 retweet 1 favorite Reply Retweet1 Favorite1 |
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Yes Collector, I got the King George massively wrong as I said in the King George thread. I'm trying to learn from my mistakes like any good punter should. What are the lessons, I've twice believed what Mullins and crew have said about a horse staying, Ballycasey and now Champagne Fever. Neither stay 3 miles in Grade 1 company.
Next I'm thinking how often do horses run in King George who have not run over 3 miles before. Why not give a horse experience of running at 3 miles before chucking them in such a race. |
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How on earth was CF unsuited by the ground yesterday? He's won on Heavy or Soft plenty of times.
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He's just not as good over fences as he was over hurdles. If he was as good as his hurdling days he would not have been chinned by Western Warhorse.
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Similar ground to last year, similar result. CF weren't that bad, he just didn't win
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sintonian
How on earth was CF unsuited by the ground yesterday? He's won on Heavy or Soft plenty of times. Who said that sint?  |
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i dont even think CF was that good over hurdles. one good performance in the supreme, at a track which suits the horse down to the ground, a great ride from ruby. he never backed it up, got hammered at punchestown.
the arkle last year was poor quality. i think he could possibly place in a champion chase but not win it. |
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He's a far better horse on good ground. He might have form on soft against weak opposition (indeed if you believe his trainer his best run came on it) but he's better on better ground. I also think it's ridiculous to say he hasn't been as good chasing:
- Won his Beginner's Chase easily - He was running a serious race last year at Leopardstown before his race ending mistake. I seen all I needed to see that day and backed him for the Arkle. - He ran equally as well in the Arkle before getting caught on the line. I thought it was a great run and a serious display of jumping. The best round of jumping at the whole Festival. - Disappointed at Punchestown. Not sure why - however he also ran poorly in the novice hurdle at Punchestown the season before. - Won a Grade 2 on re-appearance - 4th in a King George at his first try at the trip. The trainer just described it as his best ever run. Considering he's won one less chase than he did over hurdles, I find it hard to believe he's a better hurdler than chaser especially as he's probably one of the best jumpers in training. |
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Silvi looked great yesterday. No more of that crab-wise nonsense after each fence - he just took wings
for every leap and I thought he could have gone further without a problem. There's the hill to get up but he's got a belter of a chance. |
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The Gold Cup, is still around 21/2 months away and as there is no outstanding horse around at the moment, anything can happen on the day. We have been spoilt over the last 10 years, with outstanding horses winning the race, with Best Mate, Kauto Star and Denman, winning 6 of them
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was in response to SYT, CV.
SYT, there are a lot of excuses made for the horse now. The race he won on debut this season he was in receipt 10lb from the opposition. He's achieved very little over fences thus far. |
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You could be right Sintonian but I'm a fan and I can justify the excuses although it's understandable if others can't. Right now he's only a very peripheral player in the Gold Cup market but it's encouraging to hear he'll be getting an entry. At least they are not giving up totally on the 3 mile experiment. I like him and I hope he does improve on the King George effort.
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