Are we any nearer with The Gold Cup winner? ..Quite impressed with last Conti run ..As for the rest Cue Card and Dynaste appear not to stay. Champagne Fever is not for me yet but that might change if he wins well over Xmas. Bobsworth and Lord Windemere not seen yet. Has anyone heard anything if they have had any setbacks?. Holywell may be the fly in the ointment, jonjo is a genius at having horses at their peek come the festival

Conti has the best, of very limited, form at the moment, so I think he definitely deserves to be favourite at this stage.

I said earlier in this thread that he is the only one from last years Gold Cup that I consider again this year.  Didn't back him in the Betfair, but had a small stake on the BF/Gold Cup double at 40's, so I'm happy with that - just kicking myself I never backed him on the day.

The Hennessey could give us some more clues.  My other two fancies were Ma Filleule, but I've kind of written that off, and Smad Place.  If Djakadam or Smad Place want to be considered serious contenders for the Gold Cup, one of them needs to be winning the Hennessey off their current marks imo - particularly Djakadam.

Always suspected Djakadam as a non stayer to be honest Budd.  With doubts around Sprinter and SDG, I personally think he is a lot more likely to run in the Champion Chase than Champagne Fever after that run - he travelled very well, and I think he's got some good prizes in him, but not over staying trips.

In hindsight, I think they might regret putting him in the race as a lightly raced five year old going that distance for the first time in one of the most competitive handicaps you can get - but his mark was probably too attractive to turn it down.

In response to Teaspoons question above, I don't think this made the Gold Cup picture any clearer, although if it came up soft, you'd have to put Houblon in the mix imo - I think he will slip under a lot of radars (but you'd have to think of it as a sub standard renewal if he did get in the mix).

From a personal point of view I was delighted with the way Smad Place travelled for the majority of the race, (I had the in play odds on the laptop on whilst watching the race, and he was the in running fav up until 3 out) but it concerned me the way he faded so tamely and so quickly.

I don't know whether the lack of a prep had taken its toll, or he might just not be good enough.  I personally think he is a better horse than Many Clouds, and still can't decide whether 33/1 is too big.  I've already backed him at 20's (fiver ew so hardly breaking rhe bank!), but don't know whether the 33's might be a bit of an over reaction.

I don't know whether I'm trying to convince myself my original bet is not lost or to just give up on him and look elsewhere????  It's just his festival record is so consistent and how close he went in the RSA last year after an interupted campaign is always in the back of my mind.

I quite liked Taquin De Seul for this during the summer but I was hoping for some improvement from him. In the Jewson last season he won despite of his jumping and travelling which is what I liked. But his runs this season have been very disappointing. His jumping has looked woeful and he looks more gangly than ever. He is such a big framed, heavy shouldered horse and I'm surprised he has won around a tight track like Cheltenham because he looks very unsuited to that type of course.
I agree O'neil is a master a getting them to the big race spot on but I'd like to see some major improvement before March.

I see Road To Riches has drifted in the market for the Lexus and the Gold Cup.

Has anybody heard anything regarding his well-being?

he's run 3 times over xmas, one a bumper, one going down by a length to jezki and the other a third after an awful mistake. i would hardly say thats conclusive proof of him not being able to win at xmas.

Holywell    11-06
Sam Winner  11-06
Medermit    11-00
Ma Filleule 10-13

Decent little race at Aintree tomorrow.  Holywell has the course form and Many Clouds certainly franked the Carlisle form.  Chelt handicap at festival is identical weights for Holywell & Ma Filleule so should be close.  Medermit hasn't won for over 3 years so would be disappointing if he won and Sam Winner has it to do at the weights, but would put himself in the Gold Cup picture if he won.  I've backed SW previously for the GC and had a bit more at 200/1 on here just in case.  Tomorrow it will be an investment or a waste.

That's how I tend to look at things Kevin.  I suppose HDO does not have great chase form at Chelt and has been well beaten behind Lord Windermere at the last 2 festivals, but last Saturday was easily his best ever performance over jumps and is young enough to improve.  Not going for the National this season according to V.Williams so I suppose he's forced to go for the Gold Cup now he's in the 160's. 300's I've had some as bound to trade shorter and will be a free bet to nothing.  Goes particularly well fresh so they might now prepare with that in mind.  Good spot Kev.

a place is not out of the question ,lord windermere won it off 150 something so odo  could run a big race of the 160+

I am kicking myself for not having a bigger AP bet on Lord Windermere now but at his current price of 14 or so, I am tempted to lay off the bet I have. Unless he nearly wins the Lexus, he might drift again. Still my main fancy though.

For a whole lot of reasons very few horses win two Gold Cups.

Sorry LW. Early in the morning.

Yep, the Gold Cup should bring out the best in him.
A wide open year, and I would not be at all surprised if he runs a huge race.

Chief,
I aint sure what level is needed now to be honest.
It seems to me that we have no superstars around right now, and I can see a similar scenario as to what we had last season,and out and out stayers may be the way to go.Throughout the years we have had handicap stayers running big races, and without Kauto Star and Denman type class horses, I can see that continuing, as happened last season.
I do agree that HDO would be better off with soft ground, but his type of horse is where I will be looking when trying to work out the Gold Cup.

True Budd, I think he has bundles of stamina; he'd be a good National horse if it weren't for his mark, and this year doesn't look like a hot renewal - but neither was last year when he was well beaten.

My only reservation is that if it does come up good again this year, I don't see how he could turn around 24 lengths with Lord Windermere, and if it comes up soft, then I think that'll play in to Conti's hands a bit more, because we are always told he is better with some cut.

I think he'll finish an admirable 4th, 5th or 6th, probably off the bridle quite early, but plugging on up the hill at the end.  He does seem to have improved this year, and he was joint youngest in the field last year, so he could get nearer, but I think I'll look elsewhere.  Good luck to those who've backed him, especially at the 300's he was about a month a go!

He's still a young horse at 7yo and he could still be improving. Synchronised made the step up from Handicap to Gold Cup and I'd like to see Houblon only have 1 run in Argento between now and the Gold Cup, I feel he was possibly a bit over raced in 2nd half of last year and it's good to see he's possibly having a lighter campaign this season.

jonjos couldn't win a walk over at present  but hopefully he will have his string ready for the festival ,but that has allowed taquin du seuel to drift to a tempting price at around 60 on here, been having bits on at 46 up to the present 60 ,he has now become a value price  in an open race and hopefully with johns spirit likely to go for the ryanaire, tds   may  well go  for the gold cup.

al ferof had a bad bout of ulcers last year according to p.nicholls , so he obviously couldn't show his best form don't know the effect of ulcers but any disadvantage in top company is not ideal so could probably run a line through last seasons form ,and as you say in the circumstances a big price considering !

I've no doubt Alfie will stay at Kempton. He's by Dom Alco after all, full of stamina. His 2 runs over the trip have been when suffering with ulcers.

you could if you had suffered with serious ulcers and gone for a long run howdi