Cheltenham Festival
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Un De Sceaux and Willie Mullins
Un De Sceaux and Willie Mullins
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Winning the Mares hurdle is as important as winning the Arkle these days. Sad but true, number of wins gives prizes not prestige of wins (bar the 2 big races). A man can win the Champion Hurdle & Gold Cup, but if another Jock wins the Mares, Coral Cup & Pertemps they're the top Jock for the festival.
in the weighing room who would be really top jock  ktf |
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You're over complicating it in my opinion. You already said above to ignore Valseur Lido due to the ownership.
However are we take it based on the above quotes from Mullins, you believe, Un De Sceaux in the Arkle gives him a chance at a winner equal to that of Valseur Lido / Vautour in the Jewson. If he's placing his horses to give him the best chance of a winner, why would he care who owns them? I'm back at square one. Vautour / Un De Sceaux in the Arkle. Valsuer Lido in the JLT. It seems the best option and the most logical one. If Ruby is stuck for a ride in the JLT, maybe they can run Vroom Vroom Mag, Abyssial or Adriana Des Mottes. |
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Mullins has a number of good horses to sort out and big owners to please. I don't think anything is cut and dry yet. Injuries and ground conditions could change plans at the last minute.
I think this is an important point too. I would be very aware how fruitless this debate could end up. It's still a long way to go. Still Mullins is keeping the forum busy in the winter with his huge stable and potential running plans ... nothing new! |
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Again I'd like to point out, I've backed Un De Sceaux for the Arkle. I'd like to be transparent.
But I'm still massively confident in the fact, Ruby will ride Un De Sceaux and Vautour at Cheltenham in different races. |
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What if going is good at Festival UDS more than likely wont show again,Ricci stated good few months ago Vautour target is Arkle, and think this will be the case. He has plouged millions into stable last few years,think Vautour will head for whatever race owner wants not Ruby, he dont pay the bills!
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He has plouged millions into stable last few years
and milllions and millions and millions  ktf |
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Lol Alleged you know what i mean matey.
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Will never be good ground during an Arkle, always watered. Also regardless of what ground it is, UDS runs in the Arkle. It's at least been stated multiple times he won't go up in trip. Owner has been so patient, so good with missing the Champion Hurdle. From what I've read and heard, it's set in stone he goes for the Arkle. Which means, given all the other logical facts there is. Vautour does not run in the same race. Especially given Mullins said he might go up in trip as early as his stable tour. For that specific reason I've not been able to back Vautour.
I understand people bet on a horse and feel the need to believe their money is safe, that the horse will run in the race they believe in. Until horses line up they are not runners in a race yet. Opinion is all it is until then. |
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Cv Arkle has been good ground 6 times since and inc year 2000, twice soft rest good/soft.
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The parallels with the likes of Annie/Fly/UDS, Champagne Fever/Felix, Vautour/Briar Hill/Faugheen have one thing in common; there were no alternatives in the stable for other races and Mullins had an exit strategy for those horses to avoid each other with amenable owners. This year is different. The novice hurdlers and chasers in Mullins' stable are stacked deep not just generally but each powerhouse owner have depth too. There is no way out for Mullins this time. They HAVE to take each other on. This year the big factor is the strength of the Gigginstown novices. That is unprecedented. O'Leary did say Mullins has carte blanche to do what he feels is right but Giggy has other irons in the fire and crunch time; will O'Leary really ignore his first jockey Bryan Cooper who gives the impression VL and DP are his strongest chances in his opinion?
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What I'm getting at is I think it is not the trainer who will hold the final say. Ricci has the choice of taking on UDS or VL. Have a feeling should both UDS and Vautour make it to the Fez, both will be in the Arkle. Different owners and whilst Ricci has said he'd want Ruby on board previously, I don't think Walsh will be as big a factor as previous as Paul Townend seems to be earning the Riccis' trust winning on DOuvan and has the ride on Boxing Day.
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2 good posts cause and affect...this is where i am at
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I've left well alone. Working other angles rather then getting fixated with Mullins.
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Steveo watering policy only came in during Katchits Champion win in 2008. Without checking I believe only once on Tuesday was it good in the 7 years since the policy was introduced.
I'd also like to point out that I believe they intend to run him, regardless of ground. The belief he needs soft ground is a fabricated assumption. Hurricane Fly always needed soft ground but still won a couple of big races at Cheltenham. I don't want to have discussion moved onto things like ground and to move away from the horses etc.. I'd rather just be adamant in my opinion. Un De Sceaux runs in the Arkle, I've utterly no doubt about it at all, nor does Ruby Walsh, nor does a few people who know anybody in Mullins yard. Hell even listen to the last Final Furlong Podcast. UDS gets his chance to run at Cheltenham, owner was wrong to let him be denied last season. Fly was well beaten and who knows how he could have done in the race. Before anyone responds. That's an opinion. It'll never be fact until Tuesday in March. I know some people accept I've a good track record with regards Mullins and my confidence of the string is UDS for Arkle, Black Herculese for Albert Bartlett and Tell Us More for Neptune. Those 3 horses run in those 3 races if they make to the festival at all. ...Well in my opinion that is   |
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Twice been good ground since watering policy since 2008, 2011 and 2012 Captain Chris and Sprinter Sacre. You stated never be good ground during an Arkle, so that is incorrect.
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Imo, it looks blatant UDS will run in the Arkle. 20f over fences would stretch his stamina. Only query is whether Vautour runs in it too.
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Sint if Vautour more than likely wins over xmas over 2 miles,do you think Ricci would really want to go for JLT? Owner stated months ago Arkle is target,maybe could see one or other heading Champion Chase if so called big 2 dont make it. Would be great for racing if both fit and well and ran in Arkle?
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but I also know and trust Willie and Ruby will do the right thing for the horse and place her where she has the best chance of winning.
For me that's crucial,hes saying that whatever he wants(ricci)he trusts mullins and walsh to make the decision. |
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The way this Arkle is going,with Josses not jumping that well imo,he could well have 1st and 2nd and quiet clearly 1st and 2nd.
That's not what they want,they want to win both races. As Ruby cannot ride Valseur Lido he has no winning chance in the JLT(that I can see anyway), so if he wants to win that race as well Vautour has to go there. Now does Vautour have more chance of winning the Arkle or JLT? I honestly think that they know a lot more about UDS than we do,and think he wins the Arkle with or without Vautour. The more I think about it and the more I hear from Mullins and Walsh,the more convinced I am that UDS was sacrificied last season, and now its his time. |
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"Vautour may go RSA" you say CV Byrne? Are you on the vodka?
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Vautour will hose up on Boxing Day and go shorter in the Arkle market so if you are going to lay off then do it after that. If he does hose up then that will be yet another 2m Grade One in the bag. So what some are saying is you would sacrifice a 6 length Supreme winner on good ground,who has dotted up in grade ones, excellent at the Arkle trip for a horse who hasn't even ran in a Grade one, fell in a donkey derby under no pressure at all, no festival experience and seemingly needs soft ground?
Think people also need to realise there are other stables that know what they are doing.if you have followed the likes of Mullins and his disciples on here, then and I mean this with greatest respect, they (esp one poster who I don't think realises that the likes of Henderson Nicholls etc actually exist) would have you believe year in year out that Mullins is gonna win every championship and novice race at the festival. Again, I repeat, see previous threads on : Pont Alexandre Boston Bob Annie Power Briar Hill Hurricane Fly Champagne Fever Felix Yonger esp the last two with all the nonsense about how C Fever would go JLT.never a chance I of that happening. Added to that UDS was gonna run in the champion as was Annie Power. Never a chance of that either. It is around 2.5 months to Cheltenham and I find it staggering that certain people have stated that UDS is a cert for the Arkle and Vautour will be pushed aside cos he beat erm Smashing after landing on his arse on his debut. |
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I love this! March will come, probably both on the sidelines and I'll have done my 'win any race' money on Vautour and we'll never know. Ah the joys of ante post punting....
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I'm glad to have gotten out of this now. If he wins on Boxing Day, I don't think he'll go too much shorter because the of the doubts raised on here. No doubt the bookies will shorten him to 9/4 or something, but for laying off on Betfair, I think the price change will be minimal. Could even drift if they interview Mullins or Walsh who still say they're undecided.
If he doesn't run UDS is the one to beat, follower by Ptit Zig if he runs. I think Mullins has had a stronger novice hurdle string in the past (eg last year) but I think this is definitely his strongest novice chase team he's had. |
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Main problem with running both beasts in Arkle is the bould Ruby, while he may be a genius in the saddle his is not a fooking magician .......he can only ride one in each race.
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stevo1
Twice been good ground since watering policy since 2008, 2011 and 2012 Captain Chris and Sprinter Sacre. You stated never be good ground during an Arkle, so that is incorrect. Yes I was incorrect in that statement. So let me clarify. I mean that the watering policy is to have it on the easy side of good on opening day. Given that policy I do not believe there are any concerns over the ground in the Arkle which would result in Un De Sceaux being a n/r because of the going. Even if if was good going, it would be on a watered track and as memory serves me when Fly won his first Champion Hurdle there was going change to good during the day. |
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if I remember, the going was stated as good to soft last march opening day but the times suggested it was good ground
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Steve, yes quite possible both could run in Arkle, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise. I am just of the opinion UDS has one target because Vautour is the better horse (imo) and can (probably) win the JLT or Arkle.
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I hope they both run in the Arkle.
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So do I sint, I wanted UDS taking on Fly and AP in the CH,I wanted Fy taking on Cfever. I simply want the best horses running against each other,but all the time one trainer gets so many gooduns and has his policy,it won't happen.sad bu true and a few on here need to accept it even if they don't like it......I've had to!!
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Collector, certain people on here are saying UDS in the Arkle cos that's what his connections have said. It makes no difference re donkey derbys, winning supremes by 6 lengths etc etc
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They should both run in it. I'd have to agree with whoever said it that it appears to be turning into lets get as many winners for the stable and Ruby rather than what is best for the horse. If Vautour wins on Boxing Day what on earth would make you think afterwards "Lets step him upto 2m 4f"
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Frustrating aint it?? All I want is to see my dream race.....an unexposed horse that bowls along playing catch me if you can against proven Grade 1 animals,i wanted it last season in the Churdle and did not get it cos he weren't allowed to run, and now hes allowed to run I still probably wont get it.
The fact that he might prove not up to this level don't matter,its the thought of the race and the excitement that I personally would have in the build up,wondering if this horse can actually run a top class field into the ground from the front. Its the most exciting thing in racing for me, and I can just about remember watching Anaglogs Daughter excite me....I want that again, and this horse may,just may, provide it. |
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Certainly is budd. Just dont understand Vautour and the JLT
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i think the JLT is the best race for Vautour. I think he's a potential gold cup horse. UDS has so much speed and as said willie will be desperate for this to win given his criticised absence last year. He looks the pure two miler whereas we know Vautour will stay.
I think Vautour is tailor made for the JLT. |
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Problem for Vautour with the JLT route is Valseur Lido. I believe these are the 2 best novice chasers in the Mullins yard, including UDS. Gigginstown have plenty of other staying novice chasers but few (if any) with the speed of VL. He will be JLT bound. They have Don Poli for the RSA who if you hadn't noticed, beat Smashed every bit as comprehensively over 2 and a half miles as UDS did over 2.
I suspect it more likely that Vautour will run in a cut up Champion Chase than the JLT, where he will have his work seriously cut out to deal with VL. If the monster or Sire De Grugy show their well being meantime, this isn't going to happen. |
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Equally VL could be in RSA and DP in the 4 miler,then theres real Steel as well.
Gigginstown got some sorting out to do with their novices.. |
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Also Mullins had 3 in the JLT last season,so could well be multiple entried again.
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i dont think theres any chance of vautour going CC. willie just wont do it, with such a big future potentially over longer trips, i dont think it'd make any sense
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Sorry, forgot about Wounded Warrior......any more? how many novice chasers Gigginstown got this season??
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