Cheltenham Festival
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Un De Sceaux and Willie Mullins
Un De Sceaux and Willie Mullins
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I did not look at it that way Harry,I just thought he was just doing what most of us were doing,surmising and opinions on where we are in relation to his Arkle horse....or horses!!
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As for the comment about UDS collapsing on the run in..........Collector, you do realise this horse has won on soft ground in France over 4 furlongs more than the Arkle distance.i do agree though that he could come a cropper during the race.
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ok budd why not say i think he is a potential gold cup horse but for the time being the race for him is the arkle beacause of the speed he shows...no we don't do that we talk of his relative breeding for getting further and even using his brother sir des champs as an example when that particular horse had a proven 2m4f profile when going for the jlt
anyway i've said enough all i hope is vautour does make the arkle gig along with un de sceaux i haven't a vested interest so am a neutral |
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Well I have a vested interest,I'm on Josses hill and sgt reckless ante post,so it would suit my pocket if neither of Mullins horses ran. I have had some on here for UDS in the CHurdle and Queen mum at big odds,as I thought they may be possibilities. I do want UDS to run in one of the big 2 mile races at the festival, and it's much more likely it will be the Arkle,
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I hope to see both turn up for this and I too see no reason why Vautour should go for the JLT. He may need further in time but at the moment looks perfect for the Arkle.
He has the same sire as Sir Des Champs but that doesn't make them brothers. That is down to the female line. |
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No offence taken at all Buddelia...and its all good chat. The best trip for Un De Sceaux and Vautour is 2 miles. So come on Mullins, run em both and see what's what. But I cannot see that happen sadly. I'm a Vautour man all day long and have 6-1 and 11-2. If he doesn't look like running then just lay it off. I just cannot see Un De Sceaux taking off at that pace and both staying on his feet and staying up the hill. He would have to be simply outstanding to do that. And if he was outstanding and better than Vautour then he would have ran in a Grade One by now. I can also see UDS having another hiccup on the way to March
All of UDS's races bar one have been on soft or heavy ground. No good ground experience. Why is this I wonder? What happens if its good in March? We know they will say its good to soft and that means good or faster. We know Vautour acts on it as he pissed up in the Supreme. We know Vautour acts on the track. We know Vautour can blitz a Grade 1. All about opinions. I think Josses Hill ew at 16-1 is great value. Henderson has won this 5 times. Knows what is required. Mullins hasn't won this and mistrained Champagne Fever last year. Fannied about all season to the point that lack of experience done for him. I also think Ptit Zig is tailor made for the race rather than the JLT. If UDS was to run he would simply set this up for something coming off the pace. He would have to be a Sprinter Sacre to make all in an Arkle going 15 clear a mile out etc as he does in races so far. It is only December and lots can happen. Personally I can't be bothered spending day after day talking about it. As suggested earlier I saw so many threads on a daily basis discussing Annie Power, Champagne Fever, Felix Yonger and all 3 were stuffed. You end up literally getting bored talking about it. Plenty of money to be made day in day out elsewhere and more lucrative opportunities to be had. Annie Power was a supposed wonder horse, hacking up in various races but when it came to a true Grade 1? Beat. Pont Alexandre was the second coming. Beat. Boston Bob had the whole of Ireland on it. Beat. Briar Hill went off 6-4 I think and fell over. So much written about them and so much money made its way into the bookies satchels. Back early and lay off late and guaranteed profit. See the same with Peace n Co who is a supposed wonder horse after one UK run and next years Champion Hurdle winner according to some. Interesting reading. |
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falls against trees on chase debut and wins against trees last time out and supposedly having one more run before heading to the Arkle ... what they really mean is one more run beating trees keeping the cobwebs off before sending him back over to France using the ground as an excuse for not appearing at Cheltenham! ... Incase you hadn't noticed, I'm on Vautour from 9's down to 5's!
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If either vautour or un de sceaux were to run in the queen mother with doubts about the front 2 then that race could quite feasibly be easier to win then the arkle, ruby will want to be on both obviously so I think the one with more races in his career under his belt will run in the queen mum so I reckon that's where un de sceaux will run and if that's wrong then I think one of them will miss the gig..... Just can't see them facing each other
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Is 2m best distance for Vautout? Winning the supreme lately has resulted in horses stepping up in distance,Menorah,Al Ferof and Cfever are all being campaigned over further,maybe Mullins and co think Vautour is heading that way as well.Yes they all ran as 2 milers in their 1st year out of nov company but none of them won at Cheltenham. Really think the bottom line on this is that they want to win both races with these 2,and unfortunately for us and the sport as a spectacle we will miss out on a fantastic and intriguing Arkle chase. ...............by the way collector,certainly no offence here mate,enjoy the chat and the banter. Just want to say about the trees he keeps beating on the bridle.............can you think of any other horse that's done that repeatedly and never stepped up to a level where he would not be beating trees? I can't!! Although I do think calling Moscow mannon a tree is a bit harsh, he has some decent form in the book. He's been campaigned rather strangely imo.
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The moral of this story is keep your powder dry IMO. When Mullins has several potential horses for a race, then there is a definite risk attached and should always be factored in.
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After the Supreme Menorah, Al Ferof and C Fever all ran in the Arkle.
If Un De Sceaux runs in the Queen Mother then, with all due respect to all involved, it would be the absolute lay of the century. |
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Menorah ran in the CH and then the Arkle and failed to win either and is proving better up in distance,AF is also proving better up in distance and CF is being campaigned up in distance and has better form over further than 2m. This is just musing about what Mullins and co may be thinking ,that's all. As for UDS in the QM,as we still have no idea how good this horse is IMO he would be dangerous to lay .
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He's never ever ran in a Grade One let alone win one and you would be on him in a Champion Chase? If Sprinter Sacre came back to his best (which he won't sadly) he'd laugh at him
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This is one hell of a talking horse lol. Needs to go run in a decent Grade 1 to see what its got under pressure. Mullins needs to take the bubble wrap off.
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Well hes won a Grade 2 on the bridle by his usual wide margin,albeit a poor one. But ive seen enough to think this is a Grade 1 horse,but as you say the trainer needs to take the bubble wrap off and let the horse prove it.
Yeh I have had a tentative bet for the QM at what I consider to be fair odds on here, just in case SS and SDG don't make it and they decide to run him there.Aside from them I don't see much to be too afraid of to be honest. As for Sprinter laughing at him,yeh probably would, but then again until he actually runs against decent horses we just don't know. Its not as if he struggles to beat lesser opposition,not at 2m anyway,he sluices up every time on the bridle, so its clear to all hes totally unexposed at 2m, therefore anyone pooh-poohing him is doing so without sufficient evidence. |
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SoYouThink 21 Dec 14 20:04 Joined: 14 Jun 11 | Topic/replies: 976 | Blogger: SoYouThink's blog
Surely there's a strong possibility Valseur Lido will run in the JLT - I have not seen his name mentioned anywhere in relation to the Where will Vautour run debate. Ruby Walsh does not ride Giggenstown horses. So we need to exclude them by and large and where they run from the overall thinking. Ruby Walsh riding is a big thing when it comes to the other Mullins Horses. For me, baring injuries of course, I think we know what horse Ruby will be riding in which novice race bar a couple of races Arkle - Un De Sceaux JLT - Vautour RSA - Un Atout/Don Poli/Vautour ??? Supreme - Douvan/Shaneshill Neptune - Douvan/Shaneshill AB - Black Herculese I think Giggenstown horses will go for. But it's possible they will want 2 in RSA and aim Very Wood at the 4 miler in which Ruby will ride one. Valsuer Lido - JLT Un Atout - RSA Don Poli - 4 miler Tell Us More - Neptune The only other questions I think remain is if Shaneshill goes for the Supreme then Douvan might go for the Neptune and vice versa. Sempre Medici will be the Ricci runner in the race Douvan doesn't go for. Vautour might end up in the RSA if Mullins lacks a strong challenger for the race depending on Pont Alex making the track at all, how Un Atout runs at xmas. Before you comment on that check the trip RSA winner Cooldine ran over at xmas in Leopardstown, 2m, then 2m5f in Feb, then 3m in RSA. For me Vautour is the horse who can run over any trip at the festival, he is by Robin Des Champs so clearly has plenty of stamina on breeding. So if you want to back him take him to win any race at Cheltenham rather than picking a race as an injury to UDS and he will go for the Arkle. Otherwise he'll likely go for JLT or possibly RSA!! If you have him for the Arkle you've got every opportunity to lay off now. So don't go cursing mullins on here if the horse runs in JLT, he said the horse could step up in trip in his stable tour after all. For transparency I have backed the following Mullins horses for the following races. Shaneshill - win any race, small at big odds for supreme Tell Us More - Neptune Black Herculese - Albert Bartlett Un De Sceaux - Arkle Un Atout - RSA Pont Alexandre - RSA (unlikely to be running I'd say) Champagne Fever - Gold Cup |
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I'm considering laying off my Vautour bet. Backed at 7's and can lay off at 4's, so effectively a 3/1 free bet. I'd be a bit gutted if he won the Arkle having handed half of it away, but it means I can reinvest that money in other races and don't have to worry about every price fluctuation from now and then.
If Vautour and Ptit Zig didn't run I'd be really disappointed, those two add a real depth to the race. What else would be left? Basically UDS vs Josses Hill would be the main battle - not nearly as intriguing imo. Aside from Vautour, the only Mullins I have backed is my "dare to dream" bet - Douvan (Supreme), Shaneshill (Neptune) and Black Hercules (AB) - £20 treble pays £15.5k - you only live once  |
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I'd hold on until Friday wellchief. If Vautour hoses up in the Racing Post at Leopardstown, I can't imagine WPM saying to Ricci 'well that's it, he obviously needs to go up in trip!'. He'll get very short shrift. His worst performance over hurdles last season was over an extended trip and jumping fences is much more demanding.... there are more of them and it represents a significantly more strenuous physical challenge.
I agree with CVB that Valseur Lido will run in the JLT and I can't see Ricci wanting to take him on, probably with justification. The thought of him running in the RSA is laughable, especially if he has contested the Racing Post and the Irish Arkle as preliminaries. |
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I thought clondaw court was going novice chasing?
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Lets put breeding aside for a second and just concentrate on how Vautour has run in his races. If we do that its the Arkle for him
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But it keeps coming back to the fact that he wont want UDS and Vautour in the sane race....shame but that's their normal policy im afraid. Forget he won the supreme, that wont enter into it, its about winning both races for Walsh and Mullins.Walsh would not ride Valseur Lido, last year he had more than 1 runner in the JLT and 1 in the Arkle,it will be the same this year,pretty sure of that.
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its about winning both races for Walsh and Mullins.
its not though is it budd.... or are you forgeting the bloke who puts his hand in his pocket and keeps supplying said two with quality horses  |
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Well that's how it seems to me.
Ricci owned Annie Power,but he left it to the trainer and ended up in the cheaper World Hurdle rather than the CHurdle...he will leave it up to his trainer again. Walsh has just said one more run and then the Arkle for UDS,so hes a near certain runner....do you think he will run both in the Arkle ?? |
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if vautor wins well over xmas then I think both will go for it, if he disappoints then the case is there to go for the jlt
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who pays the bills budd who works for who?
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Yes of course mate, but Ricci seems to leave it to Mullins to sort it out. Just cos owners pay the bills does not mean they know more than the trainer,after all that's why they pay them,to train the horse and place them in races. No doubt Ricci will have input,but final decisions will be Mullins,and Ricci always says that anyway.
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ricci is an astute business man foremost and he will be pulling the strings believe me mate
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my take on it is jlt ,un des scaux arkle ,as said before ruby and wpm will want to win both races ,cant see them both lining up for arkle ,arkle may have more prestige but they have their sights on the 2016 gold cup for vautour ! only my opinion tho!
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sorry mucked up there^^^^^^^^^^should read vautour jlt ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
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on another note I couldn't help but notice the regard they seem to have for douvan ,trouble is he could run in any one of 3 races ,supreme ,Neptune ,albert Bartlett according to wpm ,reading between the lines Neptune may be favourite but this is wpm so hard to go in with any confidence .
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Don't agree mate, Ricci says he leaves the final decision to Mullins.....I believe him, and Annie Power backs me up. Ricci wanted her in the CH.....did,nt he??
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Agree Budd. I'm sure Ricci has his fair shout but the trainer will have the major call.
"We're still five weeks away (from Cheltenham) and we haven't sat down and talked about it. I have confidence in her over any trip, from two to three (miles) and we'll have to see as we get closer. "I am sensitive to Willie and the yard and one thing we won't do is fall out over it. I'm friends with Willie and I'm friends with Ruby and I recognise the sense of history that's going on, but I also know and trust Willie and Ruby will do the right thing for the horse and place her where she has the best chance of winning. "We'll run her where she has the best chance - against Hurricane Fly or Big Buck's or whoever it is. A lot of things have to be factored in." Annie Power has yet to tackle three miles, but Ricci does not anticipate the longer distance being a problem if a World Hurdle bid is favoured. He said: "We all think she'll go further. In time we think she'll be one for staying chases. |
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ricci is buying into the sport, the greats don't win the jlt and GC greats win the arkle and GC
Ricci is not investing millions for no other reason..... he ay daft |
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Can't think of many that have done that double Alleged.
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neither can I,
 I just feel the longer ricci is around the stable the more influence he will have until he is eventually pulling the strings |
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The difference between your Cooldine and Vautour analogy CVByrne is Cooldine did not destroy a Supreme field and he was well beaten in the 2m novice chase at Christmas whereas Vautour is likely to win doing handstands (if his odds of 1/3 are to be believed).
If Vautour ends up in the RSA then Willie Mullins has lost the plot altogether. Willie Mullins has no reason to keep these horses apart. He has plenty of options for the other races. He has Paul Townend to ride whichever Ruby rejects. Vautour is not about to run in the Ryanair Chase at Christmas because he's not the stable's Arkle horse. In my opinion people are overlooking the obvious possibly because they refuse to take in Hurricane Fly with another horse of their own in that division. I think that's completely irrelevant though. I'm struggling to think of other examples where they have kept horses apart for the sake of it at Cheltenham. |
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Mullins has said it, he explained it when he was honest about Boston Bob at a preview night a few years back. Essentially he said, "if Simonsig runs in the Supreme Bob will run in the 2m5f, if he doesn't Bob will run in the 3 miler."
Why be afraid of one horse? "Winning a race at Cheltenham is hard enough, so I'll always place my horses in the races I think gives us the best chance of having a winner." So think on that for a moment. If he has the 1st and 2nd fav for a race, and one if those 2 horses could win if stepped up 3f, and who'd be fav or 2nd fav for that race. Why on earth would he not put the horse in that race??? Because punters think a horse "deserves" to run in the Arkle. It's time people got over this. Novice races mean nothing. Utterly nothing. 2 Races at Cheltenham matter. The Champion Hurdle & the Gold Cup. The Champion Chase has a close reputation, and if you want to pretend it's important the Stayers Hurdle has a little bit. Winning the Mares hurdle is as important as winning the Arkle these days. Sad but true, number of wins gives prizes not prestige of wins (bar the 2 big races). A man can win the Champion Hurdle & Gold Cup, but if another Jock wins the Mares, Coral Cup & Pertemps they're the top Jock for the festival. |
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Oh ad since the owner of Un De Sceaux moved aside last season for Cheltenham to allow Fly to have Ruby and go for 3 Champion Hurdles. He is getting utter preference for Cheltenham this season. That's what few people have been saying. Horse defo makes Cheltenham if fit. Horse has utterly no trip bar 2 miles over fences.
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I think he is far too smart to want to pull the strings. But I feel he is strong enough to have his say.
Last years circumstances regarding Annie Power, Hurricane Fly and Quevega were a one off. You had two horses going for history and Ricci wouldn't want to stand in their way. This seasons Arkle, if Vautour wins at xmas and the Irish Arkle, I see no reason why he won't turn up in March. Other than to accommodate Mullins and Walsh to try and win both races. Mullins has a number of good horses to sort out and big owners to please. I don't think anything is cut and dry yet. Injuries and ground conditions could change plans at the last minute. |