Cheltenham Festival
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Do you think Sprinter Sacre will comeback to what he was?
Do you think Sprinter Sacre will comeback to what he was?
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As much as I am desperate to see Sprinter Sacre return to a racecourse, 99% of me says it won't be this weekend. If anything the weather is just going to get worse and Henderson has made it very clear he won't risk him on ground that is too soft. Dodging Bullets currently trading at 5/2 and 9/4 in most places and would be lying if I was to say I'm not tempted because if SS gets pulled out (highly likely) DB goes into evens or thereabouts for the Clarence House on Saturday.
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Maybe I'm missing something but I'm really struggling to see why he would n't run on Sat on account of the weather. Ascot drains pretty well and according to metcheck there is a total of only 4.3 mm of rain in the forecast between now and race time.
He made both his bumper and hurdles debuts at Ascot (admittedly beaten in the latter) so not a bad venue for his comeback. If they wait until Newbury, they likely have to face Sire De Grugy, they have less time to prepare him for The Festival after the race and they have no guarantee that the ground will be any better than at Ascot (in fact as things stand, on the balance of probabilities, it is likely to be worse). The factor mitigating against him turning up is Henderson's anxiety ridden sound bites - a big consideration admittedly, but application of any semblance of logic suggests they should run unless an unforecasted monsoon materialises. |
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Just looking at Metcheck now RH. About 15mm due between tomorrow afternoon and Thursday morning.
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thanks, ff - I was missing something, was looking at the This Week summary as opposed to the 48 Hours summary (no idea why they can't match their own weather forecasts up though!).
At least it looks like most of the forecast rain will have gone through before he has to decide whether to declare or not on Thursday morning. |
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Think Henderson is only gonna run Sacre if they lay out a red carpet and throw rose petals round the horse when he is walking around the paddock.
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Mr Henderson may be looking to take the horse straight to the Champion Chase without a prep run. Ground the excuse this time and if it's not the ground next time it will be to avoid SDG until Cheltenham. Stranger things have happened ....
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If he does he will be the best horse racing lay known to man
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If he turns up at Cheltenham and it's his first run of the season I'll still back him as I don't think Henderson would run him unless he thought he'd win. Might be wrong but he is so far ahead of the rest he can run a stone or more below his best and still win easily. He's in a different league. SDG might get closer if it's a heavy ground festival, he's a clear 2nd best if fit.
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Have thought he has been a huge lay at the start of the season, and tbh despite a slight waver after his course outing the other week i am still thinking he is a huge lay especially if he goes straight to the festival without a prep.
To say he would win even if a stone worse is madness. He is a horse with flesh, blood, veins and muscles, not a machine! |
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He probably would win if he ran to a stone below his old form, but without a prep run I wouldn't fancy his chances of doing that.
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As long as it isn't Heavy I think he'll run. I'm sure they wouldn't want him to make his comeback in the Champion and the ground might be the same or worse at Newbury.
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If there's ever a horse that I wouldn't want to lay it'd be Sprinter - partly because he has the ability to make you look like a fool, and if you did lay him on the day, I don't know how anyone could take satisfaction from seeing such a champ being turned over by something like a Dodging Bullets or Al Ferof, who he smashed beyond all recognition a few years ago.
I never fancied Big Bucks at all in the WH last year, but if I'd layed him, I wouldn't have taken any pleasure in him trailing home behind the likes of At Fishers Cross. |
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Now now Chief, we all know what happened to Alf in the Arkle,dont be raking all that up again mate.
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Haha, sorry mate, didn't intend to open up old wounds
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WELLCHIEF I agree with all you said. If I Layed him and he trailed home well beaten it would leave a bit of a bad taste in the mouth. I'm on him at 4/1 but it's not the winnings that I'd be happiest about (but it would be nice) it would be him coming back and reclaiming his crown as the Champion Chaser! That would make my Cheltenham this season!
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Something odd with this drift for Ascot. The ground will be fine, bit of rain tomorrow night then dry. It was good to soft yesterday. Clerk of course said it would be soft by Sat.
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He's nearly the same price for Saturdays race as he is for the Champion itself! It's updated as soft heavy in places now. He'll be declared at the 48hr stage. The worst of the rain should be over by Thursday evening. Friday morning we should know what's happening.
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Going to be an easy win for a tasty prize for Dodging Bullets , don't think he will be taking on the superstar.
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I have backed him for the champion chase and was really looking forward to seeing him at Ascot as I am going on saturday, really hope they do decide to run him. We will see wish the sodding rain would stay away.
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Henderson has just said on bet racing nation that SS must have a prep run if he's to run at Cheltenham. Saturdays run will be decided at the last minute.
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He also said, "the forecast is horrible and we're starting to get a bit nervous".
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By we're starting to get a bit nervous he means he is, I take it, always looks like a man about to have a tooth extracted - Sprinter told him during that racecourse gallop at Newbury that he's bang up for it and I bet Barry can't wait either.
His form on Soft and Heavy: 1 (7 lengths) 1 (15 lengths) 1 (14 lengths) 1 (5.5 lengths, bit tired after taking in all three Spring festivals) P (yes I know but even Celia the vet was n't saying the irregular heartbeat was ground related). If they think he's over his problems, they need to get on with it otherwise what's the end game? They have a now seemingly healthy superstar racehorse who does n't run at Newbury because it's wet again and he might have a hard race against that nasty Moore beast, so he can't run at Cheltenham because he has n't had a prep race. What then? Wait for Aintree? Punchestown? Next season? They're saying he's fine, the (albeit limited) evidence at Newbury was that he is fine so they need to get on with it. What would Nicholls do? |
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Put this up as a teazer thinking if its matched its a certain nonner
Back Your Odds Your Stake Your Profit Sprinter Sacre 3.55 £4.99 £12.72 £4.99   So glad i got this on before they took their betting down 14/01/2015 07:49:12 BST ******* Single (Win) 1 £ 8.00 Clarence House Chase Ante Post Dodging Bullets 2/1 Pending 14/01/2015 00:12:43 BST ******* Single (Win) 1 £ 33.00 Clarence House Chase Ante Post Dodging Bullets 2/1 Pending  |
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7/2 been matched
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Looking at the news thats just broke this afternoon i dont think anyone really knows. Even Hendersons probably changing his mind constantly. He says about him being nervous, i would be too if i had a champion race horse that had been off the track for over a year just before his first come back and the weather was the way it was. How ever amount of pounds in hand of the rest he was, he may not be like that today. Poster on here who seems to be well informed said in SS work before xmas he could not beat the slowest in the yard and that that was when the drift happened in the qmcc to near 5! So i don't really care about reading even if he is a stone worse etc etc, it's utter boraralex imo! Hes not a machine. Hes a living breathing animal!
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woudln't believe anything you hear on the forum about particular horses working in any particular fashion. plenty of time to decide with your own eyes on saturday if he runs.
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WHEN he runs! Definitely runs on Saturday and I can't wait!!!
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Yeah i think those of us trying to get one over on our bookie friends these last couple of days have been had. With hindsight now looking back over this last week, Henderson has been letting his nerves get the better of him but he always had intended to run SS at Saturday!
My pocket well and truly says that I hope he bottles it! The heavens could still open up between now and the race as showers are forecast. But the racing enthusiast in me is saying I can't wait till Saturday and i managed to secure a little trade out of my lays at 7/2 for nice profit. Easy this game isn't it  |
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I'm on him at 4/1 for a nice wee bundle and I have zero intention of laying any of it off. It would make my season if he comes back to his best!!! COME ON SPRINTER!!
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I've said on here before I got the holy grail of trading ss on here, as got the field +35 ss is -£1 and £40 on ss at 7/2 so quite happy. Shame my faugheen isn't quite as good, yet. 90 @ 7/4 laid 40 @ 2.38 but then again at 2.68 so the trading is a little harder to do. Have got 7/2 tno 13/2 jez and 20s fly so its better than it looks.
Love chelt me! So difficult to lose on the championship races! Now watch a total rag go and win em all pmsl |
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What price does he go if he wins well on Sat? Wouldn't surprise me to see evens
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If he wins well on Saturday u'll b lucky to see evens for Champion. He'll be beating the 3rd fav on his comeback from 13 months off on ground he's not at his best on. Evens would be a gift!!
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STS you mean the £3 that was matched at 4.5 according to the market. Can't have been a very big lay.
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I can see the great horses career finished by saturday teatime,trailing home on heavy ground ploughing through a fence or 2,just don't see him coming back to anywhere near his best !
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^^^ Dry January getting you down CUFC??
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That could happen but let's all hope that on Saturday the wait was worth it and he shows what we've been missing!
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The game needs Sprinter Scare. He's the one superstar we have left and at 9 it's not inconceivable he'll bounce back
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Sorry,love the horse,hope it doesn't run on heavy ground,people are saying if it's only 90 percent fit it will win,it needs to be fully tuned up having not raced for a year !
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Agree with cufno1 there. I don't often look at ratings but for this occasion i have. DB is 165 and i think he has peaked. Twin is improving i think and is now rated 163, at his peak SS was 188.
I think what ever runs to 165 wins on Saturday, is it feasible that SS has regressed 23ib's in the time he has been off the track  Of course it is. Think back to all them top class horses that we loved down the years and for what ever reason were kept off the track due to injury and how many came back to be a glimmer of their former selves. There has been two in as many years, Big Bucks and Denman! Denman being a very relevant one cos he was off the track for the very same reason Sprinter Sacre has been! I can really understand the nerves Henderson has as and can also understand why he wont run him on very testing ground! We seen SS at Newbury for that day out and what i saw was a very fresh horse loving life. But that was not a race. How easy is it to get SS fit i do not know i am not his trainer but after a heart problem i am guessing pretty hard! I do give what i read on the forum with pinches of salt as pointed out on a thread somewhere yesterday about reading a fellow forumite say about how SS wasn't able to run faster than the slowest horse in the yard just before Xmas etc, but he did drift alarmingly at that time of the year on here with some decent sums getting matched. Only the race will tell us. Lets sit back and watch it and hopefully get some enjoyment out of it. As for the antepost market on the clarence house, yes i realize that only £3 was matched at that 4.5 but i picked out the highest price as to what he was matched at, siginificantly more was matched at 3.3-3.7. I seen £105 appear at 3.6 and it lasted 2 minutes. A little alarm went off in my head when i seen this and made me think not all was well. Ok the betfair antepost markets aren't as reliable as they used to be but they are still fairly informative. |
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How many people hand on heart think that the great horse will get back in the low 170s even,I just can't see it,hope I'm wrong !
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