Cheltenham Festival
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Now that the key trials have been run over the Christmas period we have a proper picture shaping up and the form lines to work out my favourite race, the Champion Hurdle.
It was good to see there was nothing between The New One & My Tent or Yours at Kempton as we now have a solid form line to tie The New One into the rest of the fold. I couldn’t split them on that run as TNO was unlucky, but I think MTOY has more improvement to come having only had 1 run to TNO’s 2 prior to the race. I think both horses like Cheltenham, MTOY ran a blinder and just couldn’t get by a top class horse in Champange Fever, while TNO won the Neptune but beat pretty much nothing in the process as no horse has done a thing from that race since. So it just further points to the difficulty in splitting them when the face off again in March.
Over in Ireland though we had another horse who has form with MTOY from the Supreme - Jezki. Tom Segal had put up Jezki to win this race and said "how did I miss how well he ran in the Supreme, had lots of trouble in running and then clouted the last yet was only beaten 3l" I agree had he not had that trouble he would have been closer meaning his form is very close to that of My Tent or Yours a horse who now has form tied closely to TNO. The collateral form backs this up. Sametegal a consistent runner was beaten 28l in the Christmas Hurdle and that horse was beaten 18l on the bridle by Our Conor in the Triumph, he was good for more than the 18l that day. Jezki beat Our Conor 3l giving him 3lbs which puts him very close on collateral form to My Tent or Yours again, as he was in the Supreme. This gives me a handle on last year’s novices, something we didn’t have prior to Christmas. Which brings me on to.
Hurricane Fly won the Ryanair Hurdle in impressive fashion, 3l clear of a race fit Jezki, with Our Conor 3l back in 3rd in receipt of 3lbs. Yes Jezki was blocked off but he probably wouldn’t have been any closer to Fly even if he wasn’t as Fly idled after he went 3l clear after the last. It was the show of tactical speed which impressed me most in this true run race, especially after the last. Fly pulled 3l clear in a few strides and the race was over as he has never been pegged back in his career. This race was evidence that he’s as good as ever. Mullins has said post race "He could be better than ever this season, believe me", while also saying there was plenty of improvement to come which has always been the case with this horse, he improves with every run. So this gives me what I need to be fully confident in Hurricane Fly. He just needs to do what he always does, post an improved performance in the Irish Champion to solidify that confidence. If he sweeps aside Jezki and Our Conor convincingly and given the form line ties between Jezki & MTOY (backed up by McCoy finding it hard to split them) we can then feel confident in the merits of sticking with the Champion.
We are also are safe in the knowledge that no matter what the conditions they will be of no worry to Hurricane Fly, ground and race pace now don’t matter. While I agree soft ground would hinder his rivals and not him people forget what Ruby said in the debrief in the Ryanair Hurdle. He said he was happy to let the race be run at a crawl if they wanted as he had a horse who was listed level on the flat and likely better. So he knew he was on the fastest horse. I am totally unworried by the speed of any of his rivals in the Champion Hurdle, what Fly did in a matter of strides after the last in pulling out 3l on the field when asked to confirms for me he retains his speed and he is still the fastest horse in this race. His rivals are all National Hunt Bred and always lack that proper gear change that flat bred horses have, it’s not a coincidence 6/7 Champion Hurdle winners have been flat bred since the drainage improvements to the track.
He seems to be saving a bit though after he hits the front and only does enough, this was evident in the Champion Hurdle too, when he needed his speed he used it to make up 5l in no time to close up after the 3rd last to be back on the bit. He then just kept the 2l lead all the way to the line and never looked like getting beaten. He retains the hurdling fluency, tactical speed and stamina that makes him one of the greats. He now settles in his races which is a huge asset that can offset any age concern. There is no need for Ruby to worry about trying to get him to settle in races, now Ruby can ride the race he wants to and with the assets this horse has, the huge talent the jockey has should not be underestimated here.
The only note of caution is these great horses usually only show their age and weaknesses in the cauldron of Cheltenham where in the final yards sometimes the age can tell. But until that happens the little hero cannot be deserted.
I know same old story for the 4th years running. But should he post an improved performance in Irish Champion as expected, the bookies will cut him to outright favourite and so there is value in taking the nrnb now.
6pts win Hurricane Fly @ 3/1 nrnb
It was good to see there was nothing between The New One & My Tent or Yours at Kempton as we now have a solid form line to tie The New One into the rest of the fold. I couldn’t split them on that run as TNO was unlucky, but I think MTOY has more improvement to come having only had 1 run to TNO’s 2 prior to the race. I think both horses like Cheltenham, MTOY ran a blinder and just couldn’t get by a top class horse in Champange Fever, while TNO won the Neptune but beat pretty much nothing in the process as no horse has done a thing from that race since. So it just further points to the difficulty in splitting them when the face off again in March.
Over in Ireland though we had another horse who has form with MTOY from the Supreme - Jezki. Tom Segal had put up Jezki to win this race and said "how did I miss how well he ran in the Supreme, had lots of trouble in running and then clouted the last yet was only beaten 3l" I agree had he not had that trouble he would have been closer meaning his form is very close to that of My Tent or Yours a horse who now has form tied closely to TNO. The collateral form backs this up. Sametegal a consistent runner was beaten 28l in the Christmas Hurdle and that horse was beaten 18l on the bridle by Our Conor in the Triumph, he was good for more than the 18l that day. Jezki beat Our Conor 3l giving him 3lbs which puts him very close on collateral form to My Tent or Yours again, as he was in the Supreme. This gives me a handle on last year’s novices, something we didn’t have prior to Christmas. Which brings me on to.
Hurricane Fly won the Ryanair Hurdle in impressive fashion, 3l clear of a race fit Jezki, with Our Conor 3l back in 3rd in receipt of 3lbs. Yes Jezki was blocked off but he probably wouldn’t have been any closer to Fly even if he wasn’t as Fly idled after he went 3l clear after the last. It was the show of tactical speed which impressed me most in this true run race, especially after the last. Fly pulled 3l clear in a few strides and the race was over as he has never been pegged back in his career. This race was evidence that he’s as good as ever. Mullins has said post race "He could be better than ever this season, believe me", while also saying there was plenty of improvement to come which has always been the case with this horse, he improves with every run. So this gives me what I need to be fully confident in Hurricane Fly. He just needs to do what he always does, post an improved performance in the Irish Champion to solidify that confidence. If he sweeps aside Jezki and Our Conor convincingly and given the form line ties between Jezki & MTOY (backed up by McCoy finding it hard to split them) we can then feel confident in the merits of sticking with the Champion.
We are also are safe in the knowledge that no matter what the conditions they will be of no worry to Hurricane Fly, ground and race pace now don’t matter. While I agree soft ground would hinder his rivals and not him people forget what Ruby said in the debrief in the Ryanair Hurdle. He said he was happy to let the race be run at a crawl if they wanted as he had a horse who was listed level on the flat and likely better. So he knew he was on the fastest horse. I am totally unworried by the speed of any of his rivals in the Champion Hurdle, what Fly did in a matter of strides after the last in pulling out 3l on the field when asked to confirms for me he retains his speed and he is still the fastest horse in this race. His rivals are all National Hunt Bred and always lack that proper gear change that flat bred horses have, it’s not a coincidence 6/7 Champion Hurdle winners have been flat bred since the drainage improvements to the track.
He seems to be saving a bit though after he hits the front and only does enough, this was evident in the Champion Hurdle too, when he needed his speed he used it to make up 5l in no time to close up after the 3rd last to be back on the bit. He then just kept the 2l lead all the way to the line and never looked like getting beaten. He retains the hurdling fluency, tactical speed and stamina that makes him one of the greats. He now settles in his races which is a huge asset that can offset any age concern. There is no need for Ruby to worry about trying to get him to settle in races, now Ruby can ride the race he wants to and with the assets this horse has, the huge talent the jockey has should not be underestimated here.
The only note of caution is these great horses usually only show their age and weaknesses in the cauldron of Cheltenham where in the final yards sometimes the age can tell. But until that happens the little hero cannot be deserted.
I know same old story for the 4th years running. But should he post an improved performance in Irish Champion as expected, the bookies will cut him to outright favourite and so there is value in taking the nrnb now.
6pts win Hurricane Fly @ 3/1 nrnb
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http://jumpsadvisor.com/cheltenham-thoughts.html
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Great write up as per CV. I've backed him every year of the last 3, but this year I think he may get caught out when seeming to hit a flat spot and have too much to make up. What a horse though
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Previous years I was shouting this place down to get people to believe me he was a superstar. Now we all know he is, it's just if he can maintain that level. I needed to see it from him to believe. What I saw is all I needed to see. He's still as good as ever in my view.
I'd taken 13/2 in Dec as posted on the antepost bets thread, I went in again at 3/1 and that's me lot unless Paddy Power want to give a great offer again. I'm just putting forward my reasoning here and we'll find out in 10 weeks if he can win a 3rd. I'll be there as always to see him.  |
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I totally agree mate all that rubbish last year "He only ever beats Thousand Stars used to make me laugh" This will be the first year I havent backed him. I backed him for the Supreme as well he is unbelivably good
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You love the Fly eh CV?
Would go on to be the 3rd horse ever to win this since the Champ Hurdle began in 1920s so would be a hell of an achievement if he won. I reckon he could trade bigger than 3/1 in running halfway through this and I also wonder if Our Conor and Jezki would get within 3 lengths of The New One.we already know Tent has taken care of Jezki by 2 so not a lot for him to find with the Fly if we are looking at collateral form.nothing between The New One and Tent so would think The New One would take care of Jezki also. Fair to say not much has come from The New Ones Neptune but I ask what has come out of the Triumph?i know he won it by half the track but I said at the time that "this is the worst triumph hurdle ever man" and haven't seen much to change my mind. Add in the awful win ratio of 5yos and Our Conor is looking at a place at best for me. Very interesting race. |
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In double figure age I may add!
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Isn't MTOY technically flat bred, despite never running on the flat?
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Also believe that The New One has beaten Zarkandar 6 lengths earlier in season and the Fly beat him 7/8 in the Champ so can't be much between the two?The New One idled and then when he saw Zarkandar come to him off he went.i liked that.
Pont Alexandre was hailed as the next coming on here by many and The New One just laughed at him. This and Tent are good horses and whatever the Fly does to Our Conor n Jezki in Iteland, The New One and Tent would do the same for me. No one really knows until the 3 of them meet. |
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That's probably as strong a case you will read for Hurricane Fly. Despite this, I prefer others of the Big Five, e.g. MTOY, TNO.
Also for me there is no true collateral form. Most of the form CVB draws between runners is based on last year's Triumph and Supreme hurdles. A lot has happened since and it doesn't really take into account improvement the top novices are likely to have made. My own opinion is the 2 English trained horses are a better bet than the 3 raiders from Ireland. |
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There's only one good horse in Ireland with regards to the Champ. Jezki and Our Conor are nothing special.
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Not knocking the Fly cos I was all over him first time he won and can't be havin half the odds he was then 3 years older ie he was 6/1 in jan 2011.but I do remember him being a "cert" 2 years ago and beat.
He struggled home against Marito and as I say beating Jezki n Our Conor?big deal.age catches up with all the greats and at 10yo I wouldn't expect improvement.guaranteed that from the new one and the tent. |
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agree with u bally all the way, i cant poss have jez or our connor and have backed both tno an tent and happy that one of these young pretenders will turn the champ over forget the rest!
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good write up again cv loving these debates/opinions
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Havin said that I took 7/1 on both my two way back.at the odds now I'm not so sure I would pile in. But wouldn't be taking 3/1 the Fly.was 13/2 last month and all he has done is beat two that aren't good enough when the gold medal gets handed out in a March. Reckon the bookies will be out to get the Fly but they were wrong last year and he is genuinely a great horse. But like Kauto Denman Baracouda et al age catches up with every horse
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A March?lol...bloody iphone!!
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Great write-up, but I disagree with the interpretation.
I have always been a supporter of Hurricane Fly but think he will struggle to win this year's renewal. Mullins may be saying he's better than ever, but I take a zero tolerance approach to listening to the opinions of trainers and jockeys, and to me, it seems very unlikely that a horse that has run as many races as he has and is into double digits in terms of age could be improving. I think he'd need to be to see off the best challenge he will likely have ever faced at Cheltenham, and that's assuming Annie Power isn't even among the opposition. I hated the way Hurricane travelled through the race last year, and felt then that he'd have struggled to win a better renewal. He looked to me like he was struggling to go the gallop at the mid-race point, but his class won through as the pacesetters fell in a hole late on. The distance he beat the likes of Countrywide Flame confirmed to my mind that although he deserves every credit for facing adversity and coming out smiling, he was far from impressive and his inability to pull further away from inferior horses showed that he had gone to the bottom of the well. His defeat the previous year also suggests he is simply not the horse at Cheltenham as he is elsewhere, so with that in mind, it doesn't matter to me that he won so well last time as regards his Champion Hurdle prospects. I suspect he'll win well again in a couple of weeks, but would be far from surprised if at least one of the beaten foes reverses that form at Cheltenham. I think Our Conor is the value at the moment, even if there are likelier winners. I personally think My Tent Or Yours and The New One are the pair to beat and think they are two extremely good horses. I think both will beat Hurricane Fly at Cheltenham, and would be very surprised if neither do. Collateral form suggests there is not much between many of the leading players, but these two are open to so much more improvement than Hurricane, and more importantly, look to be making that improvement each time they go to the track (so I don't think the oft-overquoted 'open to progress' is a hollow threat in their case). I fully recognise Hurricane Fly's greatness, and think he is one of the best hurdlers I have ever seen. In Ireland, after his first run of the campaign, I's day he is nearly unbeatable, and has been for a long time. But I don't think Cheltenham suits him, and I think this year he will be tested like never before. I don't think he'll pass that test come March. I know that it's not everyone's cup of tea, but I've been putting a bit of effort into Twitter lately and am going to start uploading brief soundbites for ante-post thoughts and race reviews etc., so if anyone fancies following me, look up @horseinformer. I put one up for my Champion Hurdle thoughts recently. Good luck all. |
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Excellent post tom.
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The way The New One demolished Rock on Ruby and beat Zarkandar is the most impressive I've seen this year. Rock on a Ruby was only beat 2 by the Fly but The New One absolutely tore him apart. Would've won the Xmas if it wasn't for the blunder and that's a concern as is the jockey who panics. One hell of an engine though. As for Jezki, no chance the Champ gets off Tent to ride him and already been by him so not a lot more to add to that really.
Expect The New one to win just beating Tent with the Fly in 3rd but we will see |
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Its not the Fly that needs to improve,the others do,and ive seen absolutely no evidence that suggests any of them have improved to the ability of the Fly.In fact the only evidence ive seen thus far re that,is that 2 of them have been beaten by the Fly.Bring on the other 2 in March,lets see if they have improved to be at the Fly's level,doubt it myself,but of course its possible.
That's all it is though....possible. Its also possible that... simply put.....none of the novices area as good as Hurricane Fly. Love this dual Churdler that don't like Cheltenham rubbish we get every year!!  |
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Beating horses in duels is never going to convince me, HF is still the best around.
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Of course he likes Cheltenham. I don't understand that either. It's his age and now matter what anyone says nags don't improve at 10. Last year he was off bridle a touch cos he's getting slower. I say he can be beaten and to be fair to the two pretenders they haven't had the chance but as said, The New One blew Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar away and they were up there in the previous Champ. was last year's Champ any good one asks? The two of em were miles clear in the Christmas hurdle and Tent also holds Jezki comfortably on Supreme running. These two would also laugh at Marito.
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Rock On Ruby form being used rather sparingly,no mention of the 8l drubbing HF gave to him,just the 2l beating!!
Spose that just don't fit into the plan of reasoning re TNO being the next CHurdler!!!. If we are going to use a horse as a yardstick at least do it properly, although if I am being honest, I think the last horse I would use is ROR!! Don't think hes a reliable yardstick at all to be used as a reason to punt. |
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fly is defo the one to beat no doubts about that.....
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Course he is, and until he actually shows us hes not as good,or another comes along and beats him, then he will remain the one to beat......don't care how old he is.
If one,or indeed 2 come along this year,fair enough. Beauty of it is, none of us know for sure. Just love it!!!! |
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Very dubious that TNO would have beaten MTOY. MTOY was running him down as they approached the final flight. Think MTOY would have won either way
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So are we just ignoring the defeat behind Rock On Ruby and Overturn then? He quite simply does not act as well at Cheltenham as Leopardstown.
Bud, if the race was in Ireland, yes, the others would have to improve. But at Cheltenham I totally disagree. Jezki just finished close-up behind Hurricane at his favoured track, despite getting a far from ideal run. He was further behind My Tent Or Yours last season, and I'd bet a huge amount on that one having improved considerably over the summer. I challenge anyone to watch Hurricane Fly throughout the last two Champion Hurdles and tell me he travels as well at any stage of the race as he does in his romps in Ireland. Like I say, I am not knocking him in any way, just pointing out that he doesn't enjoy Cheltenham like he does other tracks. |
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tory, it doesnt matter who won in the end, it was just a 2f sprint.
Age is but a number Budd. |
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Surely you'd be worried about Countrywide Flame's proximity to Hurricane 12 months ago too? How much better a performance did Our Conor put up to win his Triumph? And he's sixth-best in the betting this year!
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with regards the ror form budd yes he was beaten 8l by the fly in heavy going, but he was also beaten by zarkander 8l on heavy at Chelts
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You have a point tom, but the races in ireland are not testing HF to the limit where he can get a breather in, cheltenham does test him to the max and he has done ok there.
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I agree, and think it is to his credit that he has won two and been placed in another, but my feeling is that this is by far the best race he has ever run in at Cheltenham and he will need to show much improved form there compared to his past three visits if he is to win again. And I doubt he can do that at the age of 10.
We often read/hear/say how good a race is purely because it is competitive. This one is competitive and full of seriously good horses. With nine weeks to go, I think it's the highest-class Champion Hurdle I can remember. There may have been a few excuses for the defeat behind Rock On Ruby and Overturn but I doubt anyone could envisage a scenario where either of those would beat Hurricane Fly in Ireland. That's a telling poser in my book. |
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Budd - I think the post says HF is not as good at Cheltenham as in Ireland. I would tend to agree. He's had two great days over there that's true, but I felt in both cases it was probably sandwiched between more impressive displays.
The New One has a serious engine alright but I'd be very worried about his hurdling. He doesn't hurdle like a champion hurdler and there's plenty of mistakes in his form to back up that claim. Of the big five, I think he's probably the least natural hurdler. It's something that hasn't been discussed a lot on any of the threads either maybe I'm overstating it? The one thing HF does have going for him is he's probably the slickest of everyone at his hurdles and that still remains to be the case. |
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Just pointing out that if a horse's relevant form is going to be used,all of it should,not just the bits that suit an argument.
Like I said, the way ROR has been lately I would not be relying too much on his form with the contenders. Its unreliable imo. HF in Ireland has at times looked very impressive, but that has not been against CH fields.That can only happen at Cheltenham,and hes won 2 of them. If I were looking at a reason to go against Fly, it would not be Cheltenham. |
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I am still not convinced by the quotes that this is one of the best ever champion hurdles
it looks good on paper because one brilliant champion is getting to the end of his career, but the others have won very little away from novice races. Our Connor, The New One, My Tent Or Yours & Jezki are still 2nd season novices who have not convinced at grade 1 since. |
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Great thread lads with some very insightful posts. After the Ryanair hurdle at leopardstown I was convinced that The Fly had to be backed again for cheltenham but having watched last years race recently have my doubts again. I think he is facing far better horses this year than last year and if he hits a flat spot like he did last year then I don't think he will be able to work his way back into it. The big question is whether he hits that flat spot or not. I agree with the opinions that he isn't at his best around there but I have a feeling that he might just take to it one day.
Like most on here I think Our Conor will improve for his first run over sticks this season. Even though he beat nothing in last years triumph that run still makes the hairs on the back of my neck stand up. My issue with him is a very obvious one....they're is no way Danny Mullins will win a champion hurdle on him. I think Jezki, MTOY and TNO are very closely matched. I don't buy this line about Jezki having trouble in running in last years supreme....I think the only problem was Robbie Power's inability to get over the last hurdle there. If Robbie rides him again then I doubt he wins. I also doubt STD ability to ride the correct race on TNO so think MTOY is the biggest danger if Annie Power isn't allowed take her chance. So will it be another McCoy v Ruby duel up the hill? If it is I know who I fancy and it's the Fly. |
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Look back on the posts 12 months ago they are exactly the same as now. The Fly was too old and its going to be a much stronger field than the previous year. Now all we have is a crowd of ex novices who have really proved nothing. There is only one horse in the race which has proved he can hurdle fluently under pressure.
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Look back on the posts 12 months ago they are exactly the same as now. The Fly was too old and its going to be a much stronger field than the previous year. Now all we have is a crowd of ex novices who have really proved nothing. There is only one horse in the race which has proved he can hurdle fluently under pressure.
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Regarding The Fly's fiat spot last year, are we not forgetting that WPM has recently been going to sleep too much and as a result, they are training him differently this year. I'm not sure we'll see a flat spot this time round
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he has hit a flat spot in most years, its in his make up. It isnt a bad thing, sometimes it makes him race earlier, as he should. Training will never remove the flat spot imo. |