I don't buy into this HF's opposition have proven nothing theory. My Tent or Yours has won the Fighting Fifth and the Christmas Hurdle, the only other 2m G1 hurdle in the UK is the big one itself. The New One finished second in the Aintree Hurdle as a novice and was only touched off in the Christmas Hurdle beaten by another novice from last year - in between a win in the Bula - a renowned CH trial. Jezki won the Hatton's Grace. On top of all this, all 4 carried all before them as novices. Between them, they've won 9 G1s. Had The Fly himself achieved much more at the same stage of his career?

He certainly hasn't hit a flat spot as obvious as the one in last year's Champion Hurdle.

There's a combination of things which put together is probably making people think twice about HF (1. The improving opposition, 2. The flat spot last year, 3. The age concern, 4. Possibility of good ground bringing improvement out in his rivals, 5. Cheltenham not being his track).

A great champion and sure to be no more popular winner all week should he do the business. But I see enough reasons there to make me want to look at the new brigade instead.

it could well be that The New One's main rival in the division comes from another out of last season's novice crop, My Tent Or Yours.

Timeform - October 20th

was better suited than the runner-up by how the race developed and is likely to find Jezki a tougher opponent when speed is at less of a premium

Timeform - December 29th

It's all about debate...

Some excellent debate here, thought I'd add my tuppence worth. I posted these thoughts on Hurricane Fly on TRF a few days ago:

I had another look at the Ryanair Hurdle, mainly to focus on the run of Our Conor, but I ended up looking at Hurricane Fly up the run in. What struck me was that he appeared to be badly idling. After shooting clear at his leisure I think he was just dossing in front. Considering Mullins feels there's plenty of improvement in him, the two in behind have a fair bit of improvement to make to bridge the gap.

I've always tried not to think with my heart when it comes to Hurricane Fly and Cheltenham. He's given me many great days since 2008, including his first Champion Hurdle, but I filed him as a horse to take on at Prestbury Park since his defeat to Rock On Ruby (that went well for me).

I've maintained that Hurricane Fly is not at his best at Cheltenham, but I've never had a concrete reason for this. I've often wondered why: the ground, the travelling, the course? However, he's won on all sorts of ground in Ireland and he traveled to France as a youngster and won. He's won doing handstands left handed at Leopardstown and the undulations at Punchestown have never seemed to bother him. So I went and watched his three Champion Hurdles again.

2011
When he won his first Champion Hurdle, he traveled beautifully, something which he didn't do on his two appearance at Cheltenham since. He was always buzzy as a novice and he still had a tendency to be keen at this stage, and this race was no different. People can crab the form but I think it was a mighty run from Peddlers Cross. I thought Hurricane Fly would draw away from him but in hindsight he used up a lot of energy early in the race which must have effected his finishing burst.

2012
He was beaten in the 2012 Champion Hurdle, his only defeat in Britain or Ireland since finishing third in the Morgiana behind Solwhit in 2009. It was well known that he had a far from straightforward season, but when he won his prep at Leopardstown any fears about his well being seemed allayed. Ruby Walsh still blames himself for the defeat but I don't think he'd have won even if he had been a bit closer to Rock On Ruby and Overturn. It's hard to say if Cheltenham was the reason for the defeat, because if anything his next run was worse, scraping home from Zaidpour at Punchestown. If there had been a Go Native or Rock On Ruby in the field that day he may well have been beaten there too. Because of this, it may be a lazy presumption (one I'm guilty of myself) that the course or good ground were the reasons for his Cheltenham defeat that year.

2013
He won again last year but was probably lazier than he's ever been. He was off it early enough and being pushed along by Ruby Walsh, but he gradually made his ground and as they turned into the straight he was back on the bridle. He looked like he'd run clear but he put two or three lengths between him and the rest an the distance stayed at that more or less to the line. In my opinion he was idling just as he did at Leopardstown at Cristmas.


Willie Mullins has stated many times in the past that they've tried to get Hurricane Fly to relax more. This is evident in his running style. In his first Champion he was still the buzzy animal that did everything without being asked a question. In recent years though he needs to be shaken up to wake up. On heavy ground it seems less evident as others flounder around him but on quicker ground he's made to work a bit harder. He was briefly given a few nudges in the Ryanair Hurdle (I don't the ground was as bad as some made out, most jockeys said it was yielding)and quick as anything he was upsides Our Conor on the bridle. It was something similar to his run in the Champion last year except far less profound. It was interesting that Mullins has said that this season they've changed his training to try get some of the buzz back in to him: in essence he'd become too relaxed.

I'm no longer certain that he doesn't go well at Cheltenham. It's very possible that there are valid reasons why he's been less impressive (visually at any rate) in Champion Hurdles than in some of his Irish races.

He'll probably need to improve on this effort to win the Champion Hurdle, but I think it's probable he has improvement in him. I've already said I think he should be favorite but now I'm convinced of it. He's very much the one to beat.

No, every year you have to judge the novices.

That is what racing is about.

Don't you think he'll improve from Christmas? He always improves with racing imo.

^ I agree with this and can't off the top of my head remember a stronger one in the 20 years or so I have been following racing seriously.

Of course there are potentially valid reasons as to why Hurricane Fly has been less impressive at Cheltenham than elsewhere, but the simplest explanation is that he's just not quite as good there as elsewhere. That's what the form book and visual analysis would have as the simplest interpretation.

If you used Cheltenham as a reason not to back Fly then you would have failed to get the winner 2 of the last 3 years. Not a good or proven method,just one that straw clutchers use imo. Its been proved unreliable by Fly winning 2 Churdles, forget it lads.

Bally, no one is saying Fly will improve at the age he is now,not in the normal improvement we expect from younger horses, course they aint. He does improve for each race during a season though, which is what CV and Slabster are saying, and they are correct.
They are also saying hes a different horse in his running these days, settling a lot better etc etc, which gives his jockey a lot easier time with plenty left...hes even idling nowadays!! Last year he was so switched off he looked to be struggling, but to come back on the bridle like that and pretty quickly tells me he was just lazy, not struggling or outpaced.
Going on about Marito fto aint gonna give you Fly's running the following March,  just as it would not have given you it last season when he may well have lost to Go Native fto, and then went on to win the CH.

Willie Mullins told Chapman there's improvement to come. For me at 10yo and after 20 odd races I'm not sure I buy that.

People can't have it both ways saying that Tent and New have beaten nothing then hail the Fly for beating Jezki who is held by Tent and Our Conor who beat nothing in the Triumph and is only 5yo.

Time and time again great horses go to the well once too often at the Festival. I say at 10yo and having been beat in a Champion Hurdle before it can be done again.Yes Mullins can say all he wants about him not being right in 2012 but he ran him. He didn't say nothing before the race and neither did all the "he's a cert" dudes like erm me lol.

Great horse but happy to take him on with two horses who could just be a bit better than what he will face in Ireland

I think WPM means he hasn't fully wound him up this season, and left something to work on with the spring festivals in mind. 
Not that he will improve on what he has shown us in previous seasons.

think if jezki goes to the front with 2-3 furlongs to go he can beat hf in the irish champion hurdle,if jezki is going to beat the fly anywhere it will be there and not cheltenham !

I think WPM means he hasn't fully wound him up this season, and left something to work on with the spring festivals in mind. 
Not that he will improve on what he has shown us in previous seasons.

Exactly.

He aint going to say hes improving at aged 10!!

Dear me!!!

Ballydoyle, if you think TNO beating Zarkander was the most impressive performance this season, you must rate Jumps City very highly. Almost brought down approaching the last, yet still beaten just 12 lengths (OR 131). Furthermore, Annie Power hardly had to move a muscle to beat Zarkander the other day. Don't think that horse is anything like he was and to use him as a better yardstick than Jezki and Our Conor is bizarre.
Brilliant write up CVB. With you in spirit and in pocket. Amazing that a horse only ever beaten twice in GB or Ireland (once when palpably unfit) does not receive full recognition. Been watching hurdling for 40 years and absolutely no doubt that he's as good as any there's ever been. If he wins the Champion again and sees off the young pretenders, surely he will be seen as the best ever?

the fly is a great horse Cyclops but will never be the best ever! even if he wins this year we all know Istabraq is the best lol

CV, how many firms are going NRNB at the mo? Is it possible to get 6pts on under those terms?

if you bet in £100 steaks then its  £600 win or if its you bally then that half million you took to  Dundalk  yesterday! put another 100k and that's ya 6 points

Tom,
No worries mate,you are entitled to your opinion on HF at Cheltenham.
Although personally to think he don't like the place after winning the top race there twice is hard to accept.

Still think its clutching at straws myself, but each to their own.

Of course mate.
Not sure how we can know for definite about him and Cheltenham without him telling us

Has Ruby ever expressed an opinion on this??

How much you got on the Fly Budd?

2.5 pts at 10/1