Cheltenham Festival
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Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly
Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly
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Replies: 194
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OK, Slabster, he's run against two officially rated just over 140, but Waaheb is dodgy and Foildubh was beaten out of sight by a 104 horse on Sunday and stopped as if shot. Surely nothing from the form angle there to impress. Don't get me wrong, having backed UDS at 40's I'd dearly love to shout his claims and he clearly could have done no more in any race he's run in. Just the really strange preparation that tempers my enthusiasm (not to mention huge respect for HF)and, if the Red Mills is his next race, he'll have no relevant experience going into the Champion.
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18 entries...
ACT OF KALANISI (IRE) ANNIE POWER CINDERS AND ASHES COTTON MILL GRANDOUET (FR) GRUMETI HURRICANE FLY (IRE) JEZKI (IRE) MELODIC RENDEZVOUS MONTBAZON (FR) MY TENT OR YOURS (IRE) OUR CONOR (IRE) PTIT ZIG (FR) ROCK ON RUBY (IRE) ROLLING STAR (FR) THE NEW ONE (IRE) THOUSAND STARS (FR) UN DE SCEAUX (FR) |
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Wherever you took that quote from Skuttler. It was on the same article on sporting life website. That is just the trainers opinion of the horse, that's all. Prior to that he was saying how Foildubh hated the ground last time, and cited the fact his last win was on Good, and also bemoaned the fact that horse is now injured as he thought he had a ''right chance'' in the handicap chase they were going to run him in this coming weekend. Maybe they regret running now i'd say!
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Cyclops, I wouldnt be too worried about not too much experience going into the Churdle with UDS.
Its shaping up to be a fairly small field imo,plus he will be out in front away from any potential trouble in running. Only think im really bothered about is him allowed to line up!! If he is allowed,i will be excited for sure,and expecting anything!! |
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I think this UDS has a fair engine on him. He could just come out and crush something decent before March and end up the surprise of the race. Mullins never had a prob in pitching in Thousand Stars against the Fly 47536 times but seems to want to avoid him with this thing
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In the warm up races I might add....can see the Fly struggling home in the Irish champ and then the 3/1 won't look so hot when out comes TNO and Tent
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Budd, yes he'll be out on his own. My concern is that he'll be attempting what I believe no horse has even attempted, yet alone succeeded in. The lightly raced champions to date have all been ex flat horses i.e. Alderbrook, Royal Gait, who may have had little experience of hurdling yet plenty of experience of racing. To win a Champion after 7 career runs......... maybe I'm arguing against myself but it seems a heck of a tall order.
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UDS no chance imo
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Unless they believe he can beat HF then why run UDS? HF is one of two the in the field who would be happy at a crawl, alongside TNO, as they have the most potent turn of foot.
If they don't think he can beat HF and they run him it will okay into the hands of MTOY, jezki and Our Conor |
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Meant to way 'play' not okay!
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Would be some performance for Un De Sceaux to win this the first time he is ever asked to race off the bridle, unless of course he never sees a rival and wins without having to do so
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Exactly what ive been saying Tory, I cannot see UDS in the race if they think he cant win, as his presence will aid the Flys main threats.
barnesy, That's the thing mate, none of us know how good he is. If he lines up than im of the opinion that hes really fancied by connections, and could well win without seeing another horse. |
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wpm said and I quote IF he goes to the festival it will be champion hurdle "IF" and this is our wullie remember ! if you are on nrnb or nrfb then you can relax no harm done ,
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and could well win without seeing another horse.
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???
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Ah, I see why you think it funny now, just looked back and notice you say the horse has no chance.
Well Considering the horse is totally unexposed as to his capabalities, I find that a bit daft to be honest, he literally could be anything, none of us know yet. Open mind with young improving unexposed horses is advised. |
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I think he.s a nice horse budd, do I think he can win this years churdle no I don,t, but the could win without seeing another horse is just a bit too much if im honest
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Well hes a front runner so if hes to win the race he wont see another horse, unless anything is silly enough to take him on, certainly the fancied ones wont.
Its how I see it mate....that he only runs in the race if they think hes a big chance. And if he runs, it will be from the front. If hes no chance it means he aint in the race imo. I really think a bet with the concession of nrnb,or nrfb is the way to go with a horse that literally could be anything, and imo is fancied should he line up. |
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My conclusion remains what it has for months. I've been following racing for nearly forty years and have had some good returns on this specific race but this year's event is a complete and utter head messer. Anybody truly confident is either mad or has balls of steel.
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I hasten to add that despite my reservations about the course and what I thought prior to the season the only logic I can see for anything like a confident prediction is coming from those who say show us that The Fly will be beaten.
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That gives you every other horse in the race.
You are struggling!! Still at least it narrows it down for you Personally the Fly is the last one I would eliminate straight away, but we do bet against each other on here, so its all good.. |
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Either you've misread or I haven't been clear. My thoughts are that the strongest of a bunch of confusing cases until proven otherwise remains with those saying The Fly will win. I may as well elaborate but it will probably only highlight my changing thoughts:
I took a firm view following last seasons supreme. I thought that specific race was spectacularly good and decided that I would be following the front three this year. CF going chasing helped. In my mind I couldn't split Jezki and The Tent because each had something to recommend them over the other this season. When I saw The New One touched off by Zarkandar at Aintree this reinforced my view. I didn't pay too much attention to Our Conor because I think 5 year olds tend to need to be very good and the champion field average for those to win. I thought both that The Fly would be slightly on the wane at 10 and that this field would expose the slight reservations I have about him at Cheltenham. So this season starts and the first thing I see is TNO wiping the floor with ROR and I was seriously impressed. ROR is pretty consistent and the ease with which TNO stood him on his head gave me great pause for thought which was reinforced when he ran away from Zarkandar. But by this stage a nearly equally interesting newcomer had entered calculations because I was nearly as impressed by Annie Power at Ascot as I had been by TNO and thought if she was to run in the champion and get soft ground she would be a big player. Then TNO and The Tent meet at Kempton and the picture becomes a little murkier because depending on your view both emerge with reputations enhanced or slightly diminished. Then Annie Power smashes Zarkandar again in a slowly run two and a half miler on the kind of ground which would make her a serious player thus further thickening the plot. Then to put the top hat on after a lacklustre first run The Fly beats off Jezki apparently comfortably. How much do we allow that horse for McCoy's poor ride? How much do we allow for The Fly's apparent continuing brilliance in Ireland? Does the evidence of this season suggest that Jezki hasn't made the necessary improvement? Did Our Conor enhance his own claims despite being beaten off comfortably? So many questions. So I've resolved to stick with what I think I know. I think The Fly has shown that he is as good as ever. Consequently I still think it will take an outstanding performance to lower his colours in March. I think more than one horse might be capable of doing that but they have to go out on the track and do it and I couldn't be at all sure that one of them will or which one will. Glad I've cleared that up? |
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okey doke....I think!!
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What I know with absolute certainty is that I haven't looked forward to a Festival race this much for a long time. I think it's a brilliant, brilliant race...
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What's helping to make it so exciting is that, as Eeternal says, there are so many that might be capable of winning, and you can genuinely picture scenarios in which they do. As of now I have an ante-post bet on TNO. I think OC is the over-priced horse, but the one I'm most fearful of is MTOY.
How you interpret the Christmas Hurdle is key (did it enhance the claims of both, or slightly diminish them). My belief is that these two are ahead of the Irish contingent and I thought that looked a great race between two superstars. |
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I don't remember ever looking forward to a race this much. There are so many horses that are potentially top notch. If we get a close finish in the Irish Champion, it will make the race even more exciting.
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Who needs to bet on it? This is potentially a champion for the ages. The owners of these other potential major players like Annie and Un Seux should be encouraged to throw their horses into the fray and make it even special. They'll probably never have another opportunity to take part in a piece of racing history such as this one is likely to be.
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the race im looking forward to most.ive our conor backed at 8s and 10s ew..im hopeful only.but no matter what, the fly.tno.mtoy,jezki.annie,uno.our conor...if they all lined up???!!?..a race for the ages
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Really Interesting and knowledgeable thread. Like many, I'm finding it hard to side with one horse. Keeping all my options open for the time being and would love to see
Ptit Zig run a big race tomorrow. Thought he had Champion hurdle aspirations when ran a huge race in the Ladbroke,attempting to give 20 odd pounds to a very progressive horse in Willow Saviour. Was 7 lenghts clear of the rest giving weight all round. As has been already pointed out to me on here,that he has the 5 yr old stat to overcome and his form from last year suggests he is nowhere good enough. IMO he has improved out of all recognition from last term. Nicholls holds him in very high regard and the plan is chasing next term,but he has stated that he will take his chance in the CH if it comes up soft I have had a few quid at around 240's , and maybe clutching at straws,but this horse is seriously progressive |
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In response to dwm
dwm - Yes that was my mistake, MTOY is flat bred, though he never raced on the flat. What my worry for him is that his future is over fences. They were mulling whether to stay hurdling or go chasing this season. I feel the Champion Hurdle is by and large won in recent times horses who are flat bred and who are never going over fences. I feel horses who have scope to jump a fence lack the slickness of hurdling and Champion Hurdlers are lightening over hurdles. I believe the Champion Hurdle is between Hurricane Fly and MTOY. I feel quick ground around the Cheltenham Old Course will suit those two more than anyone else. They are the ones with the flat speed needed to win. |
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Un De Ssceaux very weak now. The rumour mill suggests Annie Power will go for the churdle
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As I've said before, I am against Hurricane Fly at Cheltenham this year as I don't think he's the same horse there and this year's race is stronger in depth than those he's run in before. That said, I respect him for the brilliant racehorse he is. However, CV, I don't agree about him being suited by a speed test. I don't think he's the quickest two-miler in there by any means, and to me, the pace that ensued mid-race the last two years is what did for him once, and what nearly did for him twice (I think Rock On Ruby did too much last year in tiring ground, and if Noel had gone a little slower he might have repeated his 2012 win). To me, good ground would be a major concern, even for Hurricane's real supporters.
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Thanks CV.
My Tent Or Your was trained to the second for the Christmas Hurdle; horse at the absolute peak of his powers, running under near optimum conditions - Good to Soft ground would have been favoured. For me, that's as good as he is. He's got nothing more to give over Hurdles. I agree he's got the make of a chaser, and I think he'll run his race in defeat in the Champion Hurdle, and be targeted at the Arkle next season. Hurricane Fly; I'm torn a bit - like My Tent Or Yours I think he was spot on at Leopardstown, and again I'm not convinced there's anything more to come, albeit what he has to offer is of an extremely high standard and he's the horse they all have to beat. The New One; he'll be better at Cheltenham than he was at Kempton, and I think he'll reverse form with My Tent Or Yours. Will that be enough to win the race? Possibly; Jezki and Our Conor are the two that give me cause for concern. We won't see Our Conor at his absolute peak until the day, and on that basis he could be anything, regardless of what he does between now and then. Jezki doesn't have tactical pace but he's still a very good horse, and quick enough to challenge given an end to end gallop. It's interesting how he's held up to challenge late on; he lost the Supreme last year by conceding first run to My Tent Or Yours and Champagne Fever, and didn't have the turn of foot to get on terms once the one two kicked for home. If he's ridden more prominently this time around, just off the pace, and leads jumping the last I think he could be hard to past. Haven't had a bet in the race yet, simply because I want to back Our Conor and Jezki, and I think both will be a bigger price on the day than they are now, because I'm not sure they'll show their true credentials beforehand. |
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Dwm767 - the paddock reporters after the Xmas hurdle said TNO was trained to the minute and if appeared there was quite a bit left to work on with MTOY!
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That only goes to prove any Tom, Dick or Harry can get a job paddock reporting these days...
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Why do you think MTOY was trained to the minute for the Christmas Hurdle? Surely the Champion has always been the big aim. I'm not saying he'd have been unfit, but I'd be surprised if he was 100%. Everything I've read seems to suggest that too.
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dwm, you seem to be making a lot of subjective assumptions about the likely improvement, or lack of it, of the principals. In particular, Walsh was adamant that there would be more to come from HF as the season progressed and, with a third Champion the overwhelming objective, why are you not convinced there's anything more to come?
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Personally, I think it’s very naive to assume that success at the Cheltenham Festival is the be all and end all for these horses. That’s not to say all connections of Hurricane Fly won’t do everything they can for him to win a 3rd Champion Hurdle, but racing is a business at the end of the day, and in business it’s not good practice to put all your eggs in one basket. Hurricane Fly is 10-years-old, he hasn’t shown his best form at Cheltenham to date, and he’s got an exceptionally good standard of rivals to compete against this time round. As horses get older, it gets harder to bring them to the peak of their form; Willie Mullins is a shrewd man and knows that at 10-years-old they can’t afford to be passing over Grade 1 success in hope of one run in March. Our Conor and Jezki can; they’ve got time on their side. They can afford to concede the Grade 1’s to Hurricane Fly this season and use them as stepping stones towards a peak performance in the Champion Hurdle because if remaining sound, they’ll be back next season, and two or three more seasons after that, able to compete at the very top level. At very most Hurricane Fly has this season and next left in him; time is running out on his career, and so connections will want him to win as many races as possible before he’s retired to the status of an all time great. Does he need to win the Champion Hurdle this season to cement that legacy? No, he’s now won more Grade 1 races than any other horse, and that’s why I don’t believe the comments of connections that there’s more to come this season. He’s running to his absolute best, because Willie Mullins knows that the competition in Ireland aren’t, and that presented an opportunity to complete the Grade 1 feat.
JP McManus bought Jezki because AP told him My Tent Or Yours wasn’t a Cheltenham horse. Henderson knows the same, which is why his primary target last season was the Betfair Hurdle, and his primary target this season the Christmas Hurdle. He ran in last year’s Supreme because he’s got so much class, and he’ll run in the Champion Hurdle this year for the same reason; all it takes is an injury here or there, an infection spread throughout a yard which we’ve seen multiple times in recent years in the lead up to the Festival, and all of a sudden you’re all but guaranteed in a diminished field to run at least a place on class alone. I’m not saying you should lay Hurricane Fly or My Tent Or Yours, or that they can’t or won’t win, I’m just offering an argument that despite what respective connections are saying, they might be taking a punt at the Champion Hurdle in March whereas others in the field will have made a thought out and considered investment. |
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Well it's all about opinions and that is an interesting one. I see no reason why connections won't be doing the same this year as they have sought to do with The Fly every other year. They build throughout the season with the aim of having him peak in the spring on the basis that a 90-95% Fly is good enough to win the early season grade 1's in Ireland. He came on from his first run to his second as he does each year. Admittedly that is where the most improvement comes but we'll see on Sunday whether he improves again as connections claim he will.
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