Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novice 2014
Supreme Novice 2014
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Replies: 183
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I would like to think the trainer knows what hes doing Chief,but yes its a bit too close for my liking mate.
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Yeah, true mate. He ran Al Ferof in Feb before he won the Supreme, but that was a week earlier and a little stroll around Newbury.
Could be the same for Irving today, but it would concern me slightly that he was trained for the Betfair a couple of weeks ago, and this is Plan B. |
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Lieutenant Colonel this looks interesting, but by its price on here doesnt look like he ll be going for it...shortening up all the time in the neptune market tho...#interesting
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that was ok Chief,well happy with that.
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Should be favourite now.
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Told you all in November on this thread that my dad was excited about his share in Irving, it's fair to say he is a bit more than excited now!!!
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That was very impressive. Would just be concerned with the ex flat horses stat for the supreme though
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Impressive run yesterday no doubt from Irving but Vautour was just pushed out to beat a 2 times grade 1 winner. Think the odds are not quite right at the moment.
not saying Irving can't win though. Forty |
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Yeah that was impressive Budd, but he won like he was entitled to. I thought his jumping was very sticky early on though, which should improve for a faster pace.
I do think though that running 17 days before hand is less than ideal though. I've also learnt not to get carried away with performances similar to that before the Supreme, like i did with Cue Card, Darlan and MTOY. For those who are on at double figures then well done, but his price is far too short now imv. I think Vautour is still the one to beat, as Forty has said in the previous post. |
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Vautour is closely matched with Western Boy in the Moscow Flyer Hurdle. I watched Wicklow Brave's race and was seriously impressed by him too (everything in the field a winner going into the race and he won quite comfortably) - I wouldn't think there's much between the Mullins runners. Also thought The Tullow Tank was given a lot to do in the Deloitte and wasn't really losing ground on Vautour after the last. Haven't seen Valseur Lido's win at Navan but wonder why he hasn't been seen since?
Also haven't seen this year's Tolworth Hurdle but I'm thinking Josses Hill for this and Royal Son for the Neptune? Of the UK runners, Irving definitely the most impressive and I would rate his win yesterday as the most eyecatching too. Not sure if it's a strong renewal but definitely think it's competitive. Back to Western Boy, I presume Russell keeps the ride? Aso heard he rides Morning Assembly so it's good to see the smaller Irish trainers are turning to Davy after his falling out with Gigginstown. Hope he gets a winner or two. |
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Can't disagree with any of that SYT. I too like Western Boy and at 16's is too big for me. I thought he quickened better than Vautour, but Vautour just outstayed him after the last. Pat Fahy has said better ground will bring tonnes of improvement from him.
As you say, Irving is a long way clear of the English runners though, but not really sure what he beat yesterday. |
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Will Ruby definitely pick Vautour? I'm not sure there's much in him and Wicklow Brave.
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I'd expect he would, he's the favourite, he's the G1 winner, he's owned by the more influential owner. All in all, I wouldn't read too much into it as Townend is able deputy.
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I agree that Townend is a very good jockey the majority of the time, but, for whatever reason, he seems to have a very poor record at Cheltenham, with 1 win from 47 rides in the last five years. Despite getting second choice the majority of the time, you would still expect it to be far higher than this.
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im a tad surprised that irving is vying for favouritism... CF last year was still available at 20,s a week before last years supreme and he was a grade 1 winner, so on that basis I think vautor is also too short.
a favourite hasn't obliged since 04 brave inca he went off 7-2. no value at all in the top 2.... |
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He was only that price because he was a doubtful runner in the supreme, nearer the day he was single figures.
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Wicklow Brave to me has been as impressive as anything. I don't think he will be far away and is a nice enough price.
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Can see Irving going off a pretty strong favourite in this now.
Timeform have Irving on 143p (up 1 pound for Saturday's win), Josses Hill on 143p as well, and Vautour on 149p. |
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I see Wicklow brave as a big danger to irving given his smart turn of foot. Vautour looks more the grinder which isn't always bad in the supreme.
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Is it just me or does this look to be a crap Supreme? I'm struggling to find one horse I like. The Liquidator may be overpriced if he's a guaranteed runner?
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It does look a weak renewal.
Vautour looks a chaser in the making to me with the size of his frame. Irving has looked really good and wish I took the 16's when it was available but he's yet to come under any real pressure or test. I like Josses Hill who still looks overpriced at 12/1. Form is solid and contested Grade 1 race lto. Should be bang there. |
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Vantour matched at 25
Is it out?  |
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When was this? 4.7 on my machine as far as I can see
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In fact yeah see last matched 25...hmm...
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Oh dear not another out,at least got couple against Vautour hope false alarm as fancied him strong.
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he's been weak in the last few hours on here.. Set back?
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No money to really back Faugheen either for the Neptune
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No money waiting to back Josses Hill either. He is due to work on Friday at Kempton with several other high profile horses from NJH's yard.
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Might just be a blip - perhaps a bot or something? Hope so anyway
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All are Mullin's as well
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Except josses
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Plenty of money today for Wicklow Brave, gutted i was going to back that tonight at 9s, hes now just 15/2 with sly bet!
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i doubled wicklow brave with 3 horses yesterday which all got beat..typical lol
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Surely the reason why Wicklow Brave has shortened is just a reaction from punters wary of Vautour not running. If you look on the other threads I'm sure BallyDoyle has covered on WB. I'm sure he is not the only one!
Forty |
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Money coming for it now!
Not mine lol Forty |
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Maybe they worked today and Wicklow worked better than Vautour
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4 and a half grand trying to get on at just over 4/1 seems pretty positive for vautour backers!!!
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I would say.....
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Yes Barnesey if there was anything big happening that would not last long.
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I wouldnt bother trying to read it on here. that 4 and a half grand has gone wether matched or not. Whats telling is Wicklow being cut across the board and Vautour being shoved out by the bookies
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