Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novice 2014
Supreme Novice 2014
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They only ran over 2 miles today because of the better ground Budde. IF you believe what connections say, he is destined for a step up in trip. He is a shorter price for the Neptune than the Supreme. That's if he is good enough to go to the Festival.
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WIZARD TEAM PLAY WAITING GAME
14 Jan 2014 Owner Dai Walters is desperate for the ground to dry up so exciting novice hurdler West Wizard can have some much-needed practice before the Cheltenham Festival. Winner of his sole bumper at Kempton last season, the Nicky Henderson-trained five-year-old returned to the Sunbury venue in November for his hurdling debut, but was surprisingly turned over by Sgt Reckless as the 1-6 favourite. "He's ready to rock and roll but the ground is just too bad at the moment," said Walters. "He needs decent ground. He's far too good to risk on the ground we have at the moment so he won't run until it dries up. "We think he's a top, top horse so we want to get it right. "I spoke to Nicky on Sunday. He's happy that I agree with him that we don't run him on this ground. "Hopefully, all we need is four or five dry days and the ground will sort itself out, but we're desperate to get a run into him." |
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Added Valseur Lido after watching his 2 races again, as mentioned above beaten nothing. Hopefully shows at Haydock Saturday will be informative 20/1 nr f/b still fwiw. If winning Saturday will be halved as market wide open at present.
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Tiqris win well today to boost Josses Hill' form.
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which in turn boosts the faugheen bumper win
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bumpers, hurdles, bumpers, hurdles. Not for me Alleged.
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well it doesn't harm it does it matey?
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Pond House seem to have a strong team of novice hurdlers and it looks like Red Sherlock for Neptune and King's Palace for Albert Bartlett, which leaves The Liquidator for Supreme surely?
He looks overpriced to me now because his run in the Tolworth was surely too bad to be true - stable form was n't great at the time, in fact I'm not convinced stable form has been great all season to date. |
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The Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Class 1, Grade 1, Total Prize Fund £120,000, 1.30pm Tuesday, March 11, 2014, Old Course, two miles and half a furlong, for novice four-year-olds and upwards. Weights 4-y-o 10st 13lb, 5-y-o and upwards 11st 7lb, fillies and mares allowance 7lb. Entries closed January 28, entries released, January 30 (102 entries), scratchings deadline February 18. Six-day confirmation stage, March 5, final declaration stage 10.00am, March 10. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including Monday, January 27. May not include some overseas form. Form Horse Age Owner Trainer 3-11215 AAZIF (IRE) 5 Ian Williams Ian Williams 0-631 ADRIANA DES MOTTES (FR) 4 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 1 AKLAN (IRE) 5 Coach Partnership Willie Mullins IRE 14 ALONSO (SPA) 5 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 4-51114 ANGE BALAFRE (FR) 5 High Spirits Racing Club Noel Meade IRE 1S34 ARCTIC FIRE (GER) 5 Wicklow Bloodstock Limited Willie Mullins IRE 6 AREA FIFTY ONE 6 Middleham Park Racing III Nicky Henderson 0-145 ART OF PAYROLL (GER) 5 Bishopsgate Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE 2 AURORE D'ESTRUVAL (FR) 4 Carl Hinchy John Quinn 12-1223 AZORIAN (IRE) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Eoin Griffin IRE 1/2-1114 BALLYALTON (IRE) 7 John Westwood Ian Williams 11-111 BRIAR HILL (IRE) 6 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 2 BROUGHTON (GER) 4 Bloomfields John Ferguson 211//20-1 CHELTENIAN (FR) 8 Roger Brookhouse Philip Hobbs 3514 CHICAGO (IRE) 5 Thistle Bloodstock Limited Pat Shanahan IRE 23-1101 CITY SLICKER (IRE) 6 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE 1-11 CLONDAW COURT (IRE) 7 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 3 COMMISSIONED (IRE) 4 Bloomfields John Ferguson 4-2 CUP FINAL (IRE) 5 J P McManus Nicky Henderson 126-115 CURLEY BILL (IRE) 6 Philip Reynolds Noel Meade IRE 212212 DEEP TROUBLE (IRE) 7 Lady Jane Grosvenor Ben Case 2121U DELL' ARCA (IRE) 5 Prof Caroline Tisdall David Pipe 322/5- DIAMOND LIFE 8 Malcolm Denmark David Pipe 2-601 DOUBLE IRISH (IRE) 6 Barry Connell Gordon Elliott IRE 1P3 DUBAI PRINCE (IRE) 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson 1//-42312 FANTASY KING 8 V R Vyner-Brooks James Moffatt 1/40-52 FASCINO RUSTICO 6 John Hales Paul Nicholls 1111 FAUGHEEN (IRE) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 1 FENNELL BAY (IRE) 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson FIRST MOHICAN 6 Henry Ponsonby Alan King 1-1124 GARDE LA VICTOIRE (FR) 5 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs P2-3435 GASSIN GOLF 5 Will Roseff Richard Lee 32 GERMANY CALLING (IRE) 5 Tyrone Hanlon Charlie Longsdon 1311 GILGAMBOA (IRE) 6 John McManus Enda Bolger IRE 4-13311 GITANE DU BERLAIS (FR) 4 Simon Munir/Isaac Souede Willie Mullins IRE 2-112 GONE TOO FAR 6 J P McManus Alan King 5-111 IRISH CAVALIER (IRE) 5 Andrew McIver Rebecca Curtis 111 IRVING 6 Axom XLIX Paul Nicholls 21 IVAN GROZNY (FR) 4 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 2112 JOSSES HILL (IRE) 6 Alan Spence Nicky Henderson 152132 KING OF THE PICTS (IRE) 5 Thistle Bloodstock Limited Pat Shanahan IRE 230-141 LAC FONTANA (FR) 5 Potensis Limited Paul Nicholls 10-3 LE VENT D'ANTAN (FR) 5 Goliath Syndicate Elizabeth Doyle IRE 111-311 LEGACY GOLD (IRE) 6 Roger Brookhouse David Pipe 121 LIEUTENANT COLONEL 5 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE 025 LITTLE ROCKY 6 Barry Connell Dessie Hughes IRE 612236 LORD OF SCOTLAND (FR) 5 Simon Munir Alan King 31 LUCKY BRIDLE (IRE) 5 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 14 MERRION ROW (IRE) 6 O Barden Philip Rothwell IRE 1F MIJHAAR 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson 110 MINELLA FORU (IRE) 5 J P McManus Eddie Harty IRE 260-13 MINELLAFORLEISURE (IRE) 6 The Patient Partnership Alex Hales 011 MOUNTAIN KING 5 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs 11-13 MOYLE PARK (IRE) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 0-22101 NEW YEAR'S EVE 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson 014 NOBLE ENDEAVOR (IRE) 5 Chris Jones Gordon Elliott IRE 1222 NOBLE INN (FR) 4 M J Mulvaney Willie Mullins IRE 31 PEARL CASTLE (IRE) 4 Mr & Mrs Paul Gaffney John Quinn 1120 PINK HAT (IRE) 6 Jackie Mullins Willie Mullins IRE 13 PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE) 6 Malcolm Denmark David Pipe 51F6 PRINCE SIEGFRIED (FR) 8 Bloomfields John Ferguson 0-4 PRINCE OF LOMBARDY (IRE) 6 Dr Ronan Lambe Jim Culloty IRE 500-113 QUICK JACK (IRE) 5 John Breslin Tony Martin IRE 3100-31 QUICKPICK VIC (IRE) 7 Joseph Duff Tony Martin IRE 41 RAINBOW PEAK (IRE) 8 Bloomfields John Ferguson 111F2 RATHVINDEN (IRE) 6 Ronnie Bartlett Willie Mullins IRE 22-12 REAL STEEL (IRE) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Philip Fenton IRE (1)/12-212 REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 6 J P McManus Anthony Honeyball 12 FRENNETI (FR) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 4 RETRIEVE (AUS) 7 Bloomfields John Ferguson 1 ROLL IT OUT (IRE) 5 J P McManus Gordon Elliott IRE 23-311 ROYAL BOY (FR) 7 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson 111112 SEA LORD (IRE) 7 Bloomfields John Ferguson (1)00-313 SGT RECKLESS 7 Camilla Radford Mick Channon 251215 SKY KHAN 5 The Unique Partnership Richard Guest 424133 SPLASH OF GINGE 6 John Neild Nigel Twiston-Davies 114 STAND TO REASON (IRE) 6 Seasons Holidays Nicky Henderson 11 STELLAR NOTION (IRE) 6 Roger Brookhouse Tom George U11 SURE REEF (IRE) 5 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 322 THE BROCK AGAIN 4 F Duvivier Yannick Fouin FR 141-115 THE LIQUIDATOR 6 Roger Brookhouse David Pipe 451-111 THE TULLOW TANK (IRE) 6 Barry Connell Philip Fenton IRE 40-1311 THREE KINGDOMS (IRE) 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson 111/0-12 TISTORY (FR) 7 Judy Wilson Nicky Henderson (1)30- UN ACE (FR) 6 Ace In The Pack Partnership Kim Bailey 205-113 UPAZO (FR) 6 Philip Reynolds Willie Mullins IRE 61-11 VALSEUR LIDO (FR) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE 14 VANITEUX (FR) 5 Richard & Lizzie Kelvin-Hughes Nicky Henderson 22-11 VAUTOUR (FR) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 12-11 VICE ET VERTU (FR) 5 Neville Statham & Family Henry Daly 12-1132 VICKY DE L'OASIS (FR) 5 Wicklow Bloodstock Limited Willie Mullins IRE 1110-1 VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR) 5 Prof Caroline Tisdall & John Gent David Pipe 41112 VOLNAY DE THAIX (FR) 5 Judy Wilson Nicky Henderson 1-45 VOLT FACE (FR) 5 Roger Brookhouse David Pipe 10-461 WAXIES DARGLE 5 J P McManus Noel Meade IRE 1-2 WEST WIZARD (FR) 5 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Nicky Henderson 24-2112 WESTERN BOY (IRE) 5 Ballyclare Syndicate Pat Fahy IRE 26-0 WHEN BEN WHEN (IRE) 5 Mrs S Tainton Colin Tizzard 0-21111 WICKLOW BRAVE 5 Wicklow Bloodstock Limited Willie Mullins IRE 20-11F WILDE BLUE YONDER (IRE) 5 Maybe Only Fools Have Horses Alan King 52P-111 WILLOW'S SAVIOUR 7 Triple F Partnership Dan Skelton 200-111 ZAMDY MAN 5 Muhammad Nadeem Khan Venetia Williams 102 entries 44 Irish-trained 1 French-trained Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle, Sky Bet bet: 8/1 Vautour; 10/1 Irving, The Tullow Tank; 12/1 Ivan Grozny; 14/1 Josses Hill; 16/1 Valseur Lido, West Wizard, Western Boy; 20/1 Ballyalton, Briar Hill, First Mohican, Moyle Park, Royal Boy, Golantilla, Red Sherlock, Lieutenant Colonel, Sure Reef, Willow's Saviour; 25/1 Bar |
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Thanks BJG,
So the sponsors have First Mohican (yet to jump a hurdle in public 6 weeks shy of the Festival) 5 points shorter in the betting than The Liquidator (4th in Champion Bumper and with a CD win in conditions that might not be dissimilar to those which which the Supreme will be run in). Answers on a postcard, please... |
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liquidator going the hcap hurdle ain't it?
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I read that shortly after the tolworth race gnasher but then read somewhere that after red sherlocks win that as he was going down the Neptune route then the liquidator was being kept in the supreme
I hope he does as I have him multiple bets at some very nice prices |
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liquidator ran sh!te last time??
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he is defo supreme bound and you can put a line through that Kempton race, 25-1 is defo over priced, another bookie over reaction...
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Why would I put a line through his last race?
Connections say something mate?? |
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connections said prior to the tolworth that Kempton would not suit, if he had not run at Kempton he would still be a 10-1 shot. when he won over the supreme distance he beat the 150 rated sea lord easily, lac fontana who was the first beaten has since come out and won, I would sooner take that form than the Kempton form where his trainer clearly stated numerous times that the course would not suit, also when I look at the leading principles for the supreme, I do not see a lot of course or festival form, whereas the liquidator has both, I think 25-1 is way toooo big and I am happy to keep topping up
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Fair enough.
Not sure about him at all to be honest, yes he has festival form, but how good do we think the Bumper form is working out?? |
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which bumper form budde? being beaten by briar hill or the beating of apache stronghold?
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The general performances this season of the horses that ran in the Bumper.
Aside from BH winning not that impressively in Ireland, cant think off hand too many decent runs mate. Been thinking maybe a poor Bumper?? |
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Lieutenant colonel and Wicklow brave face each other at punchestown today and a good run by either will strengthen vautor's chances in the supreme
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Just taken some 25/1 Wicklow Brave. I was really taken with that performance and he seems to be improving at a rate of knots.
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travelled well an after his mistake at the last he quickend up in an instance deff backing Wicklow after that performance
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travelled well an after his mistake at the last he quickend up in an instance deff backing Wicklow after that performance
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He was impressive, but his jumping needs polishing up a bit.
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http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/9149924/walters-warning-for-wizard-fans
Not really that many options left for him if they want to run in good races for decent prize money. Could take in the Dovecote at Kempton on 22nd, would still give them a bit of time before the Supreme but that's assuming that the ground improves a bit in the next two weeks. |
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The form of Zamdy Man took a couple of boosts yesterday.
He looks to me a soft ground horse,and if it does stay soft he just could be value at 25/1 currently available. |
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Probably stupid, but I've taken a bit of 400 for the win and 18 for a place on Fascino Rustico. Was going to sluice in in a crap nov hurdle at Winc yesterday when it fell 2 out. Hales won it with Al Ferof so i guess he may still run it.
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Willow's Saviour out of Festival
Alan King very bullish about First Mohican and confirmed runner in the Dovecote. |
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sorry, Ponsonby very bullish about FM, thought those quotes were a bit uncharacteristic for Alan King.
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Been trying to focus on this race tonight, as I've done most of my betting in the G1 races now.
Backed Vautour (pretty unoriginal) straight after his TTT victory, so happy with my price on him, but two I'm looking at now are Western Boy and The Liquidator (I see a few above like him). Western Boy only beaten 3/4 of a length by Vautour last time out, when he was 7's and Vautour was 1/4, so shows what a good performance it was. This is after he has only won a maiden hurdle, so to be pitched into a decent looking Grade 2 against Vautour on your second start over hurdles, tells me that he might be a good one, and I think represents some value at 16's, compared to Vautour at 11/4. The Liquidator will probably divide opinions. I'm not 100% sold on him yet, and I can't remember too many Supreme winners with a 5 next to their name, but he is a good ground horse and all the noises before Kempton was that it wouldn't suit. As alleged has said, if he sat in his box without the Tolworth, he'd be 10/1 now. This is exactly what has happened with Irving; track and ground din't suit in the Tolworth, hasn't run since and is 8/1 still. It is hard to judge the strength of last year's bumper because normally only two or three max come out of them much better, and the order they finish in the bumper does not dictate the long term pecking order. If you look at recent years bumpers, only a very small number from each race become household names, so it is very difficult to rate last year's at the moment imo because the vast majority of bumper runner disappear. 2009: Dunguib and Rite of Passage 2010: Cue Card and Al Ferof 2011: Cinders And Ashes and Felix Yonger 2012: Champagne Fever, The New One and Jezki 2013: Maybe Briar Hill and The Liquidator as the two??? |
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Hmmm...
I have an ew interest in The Liquidator at 25/1 - just took the view that the Tolworth form was wrong - 'wrong' Henderson horse won, winner well beaten in the same race last year, desperate ground etc. - I'd actually have been more discouraged if he'd been beaten a couple of lengths but he was done with three out! Not sure his performance was attributable to ground or track, just think there was something wrong with him (no proof of that) - the other alternative is that he's not very good  It's difficult to get a handle on his CD win in November because only Lac Fontana has run since (won comfortably) - but I don't think he ran his race in November. Generally, that race is not a great pointer to the Supreme either. Also, though the trainer states he'll run in the Supreme, he's also got an entry in the County Hurdle which seems to suggest they're not sure he's up to the top level.So my confidence in the bet is slowly dissipating as D day approaches. Garde La Victoire also ran poorly in the Tolworth (imo -and may well have been down to the ground in his case) and holds entries in both the Supreme and the County Hurdle. He was entered at Warwick tomorrow but it looks like Hobbs might let him take his chance in the Dovecote on Saturday, may well be using the race to find out which Cheltenham entry he takes up. So, if I had n't already backed The Liquidator I might be inclined to wait to see how Garde La Victoire gets on if he runs on Saturday. If he goes well, I'd be even more confident that the Tolworth form is nonsense. Of course, it's also possible that Royal Boy has improved beyond all recognition from last season but personally I can't have that! |
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actually describing the ground for Tolworth as desperate is an exaggeration but I still don't think it suited Garde La Victoire.
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another random thought...reading the Mullins piece today, they seem pretty sweet on Valseur Lido as well as the other two higher profile contenders.
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I think vautor is the worthy fav, I also like the look of Wicklow brave, but the liquidator is still trading at 25,s and is still the value in the race imo
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I still think Western Boy is the value to be honest. His form couldn't have been boosted any better than Vautour winning a Grade 1, and is almost five times the price for 3/4 length defeat. He did come second to Wicklow Brave in a bumper, buts that's comparing apples and pears.
Vautour and WB were having their second ever run over hurdles in a G2, so that tells me both are above average. With Western Boy you can give the old "if he was trained by Mullins his price would be...." quote, but pretty much every single non Mullins Irish horse gets that The more I think, I won't go in on the Liquidator, so I'm only on Vautour and Western Boy, so I'm hoping the form of their race works out well  |
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Not sure his performance was attributable to ground or track, just think there was something wrong with him (no proof of that)
I don,t think the track suited, also the stable were not firing around that time, but they are banging in the winners atm |
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yep, good point about the stable form, I'd forgotten that.
Hope they have n't peaked too early. |
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ive been thinking that about twiston davies they red hot at the mo
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Would it worry Irving backers if he has a hard race today, with little over two weeks until the Supreme? Cutting it a little close imv.
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