Cheltenham Festival
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Champion Hurdle
Champion Hurdle
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cheers guys..nice post by acstafford cmon on TNO!
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but where the hell the pace in the race will come from! unless jezki is ridden prominately? which i doubt
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and one last thing is there a stat which says that TNO chances are gratly reduced by not having run in the calendar year of the champion hurdle?
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and one last thing is there a stat which says that TNO chances are greatly reduced by not having run in the calendar year of the champion hurdle?
I think this is the stat that will beat him (imho). |
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Yes its a negative stats wise as 1 winner since 1993 did not have a prep in the calendar year.
The 1 winner being Rock on Ruby who has a similar profile to TNO. |
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No problem guys. It's an interesting point about the pace. If UDS doesn't run, who will make the running? Both the McManus horses would like a good pace, so maybe he should have had Captain Cee Bee entered as a pacemaker.
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NTD is not a trainer to leave a horse short of fitness. Khyber Kim finished 2nd in the Champion having not ran since Dec 13th, the Bula. TNO is a better horse, too.
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inrunninggg 05 Feb 14 19:16 Joined: 19 Feb 07 | Topic/replies: 131 | Blogger: inrunninggg's blog
and one last thing is there a stat which says that TNO chances are gratly reduced by not having run in the calendar year of the champion hurdle? No having a run since christmas is the key part. Rock on Ruby won going direct from xmas Hurdle to Champion Hurdle. Stat is a bit skewed as there are no good 2m hurdle races after xmas hurdle in England where we have Irish Champion Hurdle in January. |
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Jezki - won't be in the reckoning turning in...
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yeh right !
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Greatest place lay of the festival
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Jezki has no chance in this. Every time he comes to the top table he gets beat and beat quite readily.
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We agree on something ballydoyle!
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yeh you both talk a load of sh1te !
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Ok then....we're listening.put forward your arguments how Jezki can beat Hurricane Fly, My Tent or Yours, The New One and Our Conor cos erm unless I'm watching the wrong races only on one occasion has Jezki finished in front of one if those horses. Obviously McCoy must be full of shiiiite to eh?cos he will knock back Jezki for Tent
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he will ride mtoy,you totally dismiss the horse bally,wasnt beaten far last week when they got the tactics wrong,got a bad ride off robbie power in the supreme,i know im making excuses for the horse but i feel there valid,jezki wont be out the 1st 3,the fly is the 1 to beat,the others are all beatable !
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they are all beatable look at the betting theres no stand out horse if there was it would be a clear short priced fav ,the top half dozen are very closely matched ,can jezki win ? of course he can ! do I think he will ?probably not I think a few others may finish in front of him ! but to say he has no chance is ridiculous is his trainer sending him there for the day out ?imo.he goes there with a fair each way chance .
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uve summed it up perfectly foyleswar !
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Regarding Jezki, out of the main contenders, I do think he is the least likely to win and would need everything to drop right and the others to under perform. Yes he has a chance, but only a very slim one IMO. He deserves to take his chance and it's not as if he could run in any other race this season. Outside place chance for me.
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thinking about it could jezki go off from the front in the champion if un de scauxe misses the gig ?,he has the stamina it would be a bold move from connections but they have tried coming from off the pace to no avail .also they have backup from mtoy who will surely be delivered late . just saying!
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interesting Foyles,thats possible.
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yes Foyles i can only see Jezki as being prominent...will the others be worried about each other too much too?
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I'm sorry but if u really wanted to u could make some type of argument for every horse in the race to place. Jezki doesn't have a hope of finishing in the top 3 and as they start down from the top of the hill he will be bowing out of the race.. He is completely overrated and there's more chance of Norwich winning the premiership as Tony McCoy getting off MTOY to ride it. Look elsewhere, the horse shud be 25\1
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Jezki will get tapped for toe at some point, it's fair to take things we see from the trials as evidence of what's to come and in two races that were run differently, jezki has displayed that frailty both times...however in both races he has also stayed on well after the initial kick, therefore I can see him passing horses up the hill to gain a place...but not win.
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HF, OC, TNO AND MTOY won't be stopping coming up that hill. Jezki won't be involved at that point
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will you give me 25s patented cos jezki wont be far away jumping the last ! and will keep running up the hill !
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To my eyes,Jezki has shown nothing in the trials to suggest he can win a Champion Hurdle and at 12/1 rates poor value against 4 superior opponents.
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so when he beat our conner when 2nd to the fly and would have been closer if not being blocked in he didnt show you anything,his last run you can put a line through that but was still only beat 3 length,can i have 25s off you aswell ballydoyle !
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He looks to be a tad behind the other novices from last season,but not by a great deal.
One or two of them,maybe more, could still be improving,and its possible Jezki could improve more than some. Our Conor should be improving most I would think, so I reckon he has it to do to beat him. Gut feeling is hes not gonna fight out the finish,but I would not be totally dismissing him. |
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I believe JEZKI's connections will have no choice but to ride the horse differently to win, as he cant beat Our Conor or Hurricane Fly if he's held up for the third time running.
He stays further than 2M, so should be ridden like a stayer, that's how Rock on Ruby won his race, so its possible for him to do a ROR, but only if he commits to a prominent position, to set up the chance to win up the hill. It makes him a target for the others, but if that's the best way for him to win, then he has to do it that way, or not win at all. He is no forlorn hope, and the odds reflect hic chance. |
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You can't rule the horse out. Simple as that. His third beaten a couple of lengths in the supreme after pulling for much of the race was a very good effort when he was five and The Tent was six. If the trainer has geared his campaign for that one race then he should be somewhere around The Tent. Put another way if you definitely rule him out then you have to rule The Tent out as well unless you think he will have shown more improvement from 6-7 than Jezki will have from 5-6.
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The improvement from 5-6 would normally be greater than that of 6-7,so on that basis if we have improvers than Jezki iS entitled to improve more than MTOY, and also on that basis the prices could well see Jezki as value compared to MTOY.
I don't think it pays to be too dogmatic especially when dealing with horses just out of novice company. The change in tactic mentioned on here is an interesting point, and it will be fascinating to see if connections do change anything on the day. Not saying they will or indeed that it will alter his chances, but it could do. |
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He ran a brilliant race in last seasons Supreme but for his blunder at the final hurdle he would have been much closer.
The faster pace of the Champion Hurdle will play to his strengths also. I do not think he is the most likeliest winner but to say he has no chance is foolish IMO. |
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It would make perfect sense to have Jezki make the pace. I hadn't considered this option before, but it would be for the best for both of the McManus horses imo. They are the two that most need a strong pace, as they both pull strongly when a race is slowly run.
If Jezki makes the pace this not only gives him the best chance of running well in the race, by trying to turn it into a staying contest. It also should help MTOY settle. Since the Supreme last year, McCoy has been holding MTOY up in his races, and I've been worried that will be how he will try to ride him like that in the Champion. He won't run being ridden like that. He should be prominent, ridden in the same way he was last year. If Jezki makes a good pace, I believe this will give both horses their best chance of running well. |
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jezki also didn't have a prep before the supreme so to finish where he did was top notch, how many lengths was the turnaround with CF at punchestowns????
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AC, I think where ever the Fly is McCoy will not be far away.
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Alleged..
The turn around was after the lord mayors show. |
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the point im trying to make jasey is that imo if jezki had had a prep, then we may have had a diferent result in that supreme and he defo came on for the run.....
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You're probably right actually Brandy. Following Ruby along seemed to be his plan the last couple of years on Binocular.
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Dunno m8 he had 5 runs building up to supreme.
I for one would not want to place lay him tho or any of the big guns for that matter |