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Champion Hurdle
Champion Hurdle
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It doesn't. He clearly has a very good turn of foot, but I'm not convinced he's done anywhere near enough to be favourite. I wouldn't even have him second favourite.
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Never been value at the odds all season imo.
Fly was the only value early doors,aside from horses like Annie Power and Un de Sceaux with a concession. |
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chief dan
11 Feb 14 21:34 seary the fly is the only danger not even worried at the rest just hope mullins other horse wins at weekend an runs in champ hurdle as well be nice pacemaker If Un De Sceaux runs Chief, I don't think your horse will catch him!! |
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They're all dangers. I wouldn't be at all surprised if any of the top 7 in the market won. It's just a fantastic race.
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it certainly will be a fantastic race and i agree that TNO's antepost odds have not represented value all season.
Due to the number of potential winners in the race, i actually think the best bet is to lay TNO.. |
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The odds haven't been great, but that's because its many people's idea of the most realistic winner.
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Sorry you dont think he was value at 8/1 when he was outsider of the four? That was freely available before his race with Rock on Ruby. Yeah he is cramped price now but there were plenty of chances to get on at the bigger prices.
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The Stan James Champion Hurdle
Class 1, Grade 1, £400,000 Total Prize Fund. Cheltenham, 3.20pm, Tuesday, March 11, 2014, two miles and half a furlong. For four-year-olds and upwards which are allotted a rating of 130 or more by the senior BHA Head of Handicapping following a review of the horses entered and taking account of races run up to and including March 4 - horses whho are not qualified for a rating in GB, IRE or FR may also be entered (such horses may be eligible providing the Handicapper is satisfied that the horse's racecourse performances up to and including March 4 would merit a minimum rating of 130 - the decision of the BHA Head of Handicapping shall be final). Weights: 4yo: 11st 2lb; 5yo+: 11st 10lb; fillies & mares allowed 7lb. Entries closed January 14, entries revealed January 15 (18 entries). Scratchings deadline February 11 (11 remain), £20,000 supplementary stage & six-day confirmation stage March 5, final declaration 10.00am, March 9. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Monday, February 11. Form Horse Age Owner Trainer 1111-111 ANNIE POWER (IRE) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 131/4-35 GRUMETI 6 McNeill Family Alan King 1111-111 HURRICANE FLY (IRE) 10 George Creighton & Rose Boyd Willie Mullins IRE 131-1124 JEZKI (IRE) 6 J P McManus Jessica Harrington IRE 2111-151 MELODIC RENDEZVOUS 8 Cash For Honours Jeremy Scott 1121-11 MY TENT OR YOURS (IRE) 7 J P McManus Nicky Henderson 1111-32 OUR CONOR (IRE) 5 Barry Connell Dessie Hughes IRE 131-2122 PTIT ZIG (FR) 5 Barry Fulton, Chris Giles & Richard Webb Paul Nicholls 212-112 THE NEW ONE (IRE) 6 Sarah Such Nigel Twiston-Davies 632-405 THOUSAND STARS (FR) 10 Hammer & Trowel Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 1/111-11 UN DE SCEAUX (FR) 6 Edward O'Connell Willie Mullins IRE 11 entries remain after February 11 scratchings deadline 6 Irish-trained THE FOLLOWING 7 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: ACT OF KALANISI (IRE), CINDERS AND ASHES, COTTON MILL, MONTBAZON (FR), GRANDOUET (FR), ROCK ON RUBY (IRE), ROLLING STAR (FR) Timeform Ratings (Weight-Adjusted) 185p Annie Power 184 Hurricane Fly 183 My Tent Or Yours 182 The New One 180 Our Conor 177 Jezki 174 Thousand Stars 170p Melodic Rendezvous 169P Un de Sceaux 169 Ptit Zig 158 Grumeti |
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unless UDS runs, virtually guaranteed no gallop. Best possible scenario for Hurricane Fly
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Dont think it matters to HF - hehas beaten Solwhit over 20f so he stays very well.
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The fly can win off any pace, but just most of the others would prefer a good pace. Geraghty should make it on Jezki. That'll be his best chance of placing imo.
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Why do people keep saying a slow pace favours Hurricane Fly? He lost two years ago because he couldn't quicken off a very strong pace and was in trouble last year off a similar gallop, and in my opinion, only got away with that because the race wasn't great.
To me, if this lot of much better horses go a similar early pace, he's cooked. |
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I don't think the Fly will win this whatever pace they go at
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ROR killed them and himself last year and the race fell into his lap....walsh reckons that if he didn't worry about trying to keep tabs on them and just let them go..saving the fly in the process, he would have got to them easily and won better.
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^ But he can't just let them go in case they don't stop (they didn't two years ago, and this lot are much better). I agree with marychain1...
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We dont know for sure but we dont have definite proof that this years lot are better. We had the same argument last year relative to the 2012 field.
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I'm not one for pounds and lengths but according to Timeform this lot are considerably better, which would back up the visual impression of the past year or so.
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Not only are the current crop better than last year's (I believe) but we haven't had a 10 year old Champion Hurdle winner for about 30 years.
At his absolute peak I would fancy The Fly to beat these lot but not now. And the good thing about virtually discounting a co-favourite is that you are getting pretty good value on the field. I expect and hope that The Fly gets hammered into on the day, I'd love to be able to size an extremely chunky place lay cheaply. |
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As an aide, if you're not involved yet, you should really wait for the day or the week before when the bookies start offering enhanced prices to lure punters in. Just looked at Sadblokes ante-post book and they are betting to 130% even though we know there can't possibly be more than 11 runners. That is disgusting.
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Im from the future!! Heres the result, saves you wasting money, just back the tricast
1st Hurricane Fly 9/4f 2nd Our Conor 4/1 3rd My Tent Or Yours 11/2 Also thats some machine in the neptune!!! Sprinter Sacre back to its brilliant beautiful best..Big Bucks has a nightMARE, in the world hurdle & major upset in the Gold Cup. |
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you've got OC price wrong
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What was the ground like Moono only I've got one for later on the Tuesday that needs good to firm?
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MTOY's SP will be closer to 4/1
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Mooono could you give us a winner at a nice price for this evening at Kempton. I hate all this waiting around and we could be all dead by Chelt time or it could be snowed off or flooded out or whatever
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the going was soft on day 1 the sawyer..softer than STD's ride on the new one! what was he thinking
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the new one out the placings, dont make me laugh
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TNO is over rated
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Champagne fever will take all the beating at Cheltenham if running in the arkle,looks like a chaser,loves Cheltenham,apart from 1 mistake which all these races are for is practice,jumped really well in the main,will beat trifolium and Felix yonger,trounced dodging bullets last year,will win on Sunday and will be 7-4 on the day,beat mtoy and jezki,that's why the horse has been bullied up,only rock on ruby to beat !
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Sorry wrong thread !
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Not sure why anyone would nominate Hurricane Fly's defeat two years ago, as a significant piece of form to base his chances this year on.
His two Champion Hurdle wins were after his only 2 uninterrupted Preps for the Festival. His only other run at Prestbury Park was in 2012, where his interrupted preparation led to only one run pre-March (Irish Champion win in late January). This was followed by the Champion Hurdle where all the other jock, ;et Overturn and Celestial Halo, bomb on, closely followed by Rock on Ruby. Nothing else got into that race, it was a victory for pace-setting jockeys on unusually good ground, and where The Fly probably ran flattish after only one prep. This season is the 3rd season where he has had an uninterrupted prep, he's won them all, looking tighter and tighter for fitness each time, and where a small field will probably mean nothing will be permitted a long lead, as many will believe they have chances. I see no reason not to have Hurricane Fly as a worthy favourite, and maybe about to be declared the best since the early 1980's. The others all have potential and one or more may win a Champion Hurdle, but I don't think its this year. |
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win lose or draw for the hurricane it will be a while before theres another that dominates like he has
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My Tent set for jumpers' bumper prep run By David Milnes 12:44PM 13 FEB 2014 MY TENT OR YOURS is set to have his Stan James Champion Hurdle warm-up in the unlikely surroundings of a jumpers' bumper staged on the Polytrack at Kempton on Sunday. Last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle runner-up, 5-1 third favourite for the Champion Hurdle, was last seen at the Sunbury track on Boxing Day when landing the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle on the neighbouring turf track. Trainer Nicky Henderson said: "My Tent Or Yours is an intended runner at Kempton on Sunday where he gets in without a penalty." Finding a suitable prep run for My Tent Or Yours has proved difficult for Henderson after bad weather and heavy ground scuppered plans to run in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton and the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso. "It's a lot better going there [Kempton] than running on heavy ground at Wincanton on Saturday and it will put him spot on for the Champion Hurdle," added the trainer. "I am a great supporter of these jumpers' bumper cards and must ring the BHA and thank them for putting them on." |
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Amazing how people still crab The Fly after all he's done. Watch last years Champion again and you'll see one of Ruby's poorest (winning) rides, a fact he readily acknowledged afterwards. "I got there two furlongs too soon". He was swinging off the bridle round the home bend and, as we've seen a lot in recent years, he idles when in front and is unlikely to win pulling far ahead of the rest. Watch the Irish Champion again and see how, once he'd regained his momentum after an uncharacteristic error at the last, he leaves Our Conor cold in the final 100 yards. Of course, one day he will be beaten again and it could be next time out. But to suggest that the likes of TNO and MTOY might actually be better than The Fly beggars belief on what they've achieved (or haven't) so far. TNO has masses to prove as a 2 mile hurdler - beating a disappointing ROR and a regressive Zarkander far less easily than Annie Power did - and MTOY's form credentials are even flimsier, as AP was the first to point out after the Fighting Fifth. Don't think either would have seen which way The Fly went at his peak, and he may well still be at that peak. Why people like tomdeane claim that a strong pace will see off The Fly is a mystery. He'd have the stamina to win a World Hurdle (Mullins was contemplating the French Champion last year)and a good, strong pace would suit him down to the ground.
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Mccoy doing his bit for MTOY's in the post today basically saying that tactics on jezki have been wrong and a more prominent ride in a strongly run race would suit him more
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cyclops,
Please tell me how the strong pace of the last two Champion Hurdles showed Hurricane Fly in a positive light? He was beaten fair and square two years ago and I honestly believe he would have been last year if the opposition was as good as this year's. Why people keep pointing to Ruby's admission that he didn't ride a great race the last two years is a mystery to me. He is one of the greatest jockeys we've ever seen and he knows this horse as well as anything he's ever ridden. Does it not strike you as odd that he mysteriously rode two bad races in the two races that were at Cheltenham, in the Champion Hurdle, when the others went off like scalded cats? It seems obvious to me that Hurricane was not comfortable racing at that pace and was off the bit much sooner than expected. This led to Ruby panicking (as you say, by his own admission) and getting there too soon last year, ultimately winning less impressively than his dominance deserved. But the point is this: they're a better bunch this year and if they go off at a similar clip, Hurricane is extremely likely to again be off the bit early. So what does Ruby do? Sit ice cool and hope the likes of TNO, MTOY, OC and potentially AP and UDS come back to him? I can't see that happening in front of 60,000 people! He'll have to throw the kitchen sink at him again. But this time he won't have Rock On Ruby and Countrywide Flame to get by and hold off, he'll have a raft of supremely talented two-milers. |
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Tom, I don't think the issue last year was the strong pace, it was the extraordinary mid race injection of pace by ROR. The race ended slower than the Supreme but the Champion field was 15 lengths ahead just after half way. Had Ruby stayed calm for longer, not chased the pace, and waited to challenge approaching the last, I'm sure we'd have seen an imperious performance. And, while I'd be the first to agree that HF was niggled at to keep tabs on that pace, there was certainly nothing of the kitchen sink involved.
Yes, he was beaten fair and square the previous year but no-one can claim that was his true form, otherwise Overturn would have to be completely re-assessed. The single blip in his entire career since being trained by Mullins (other than a pipe-opener defeat to Solwhit). And as for the "raft of supremely talented two milers", he's already seen off two of them twice! That's probably where we differ; I believe the newcomers still have it all to prove - and the form book backs me up - while you clearly feel they've already established themselves as top notchers. |
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Take on board what you say and I'll be the first to salute a true great if he wins again, but we do obviously read the last two renewals very differently. I have never thought he is as good at Cheltenham as elsewhere (I include his first win in that assessment too), and I do believe the current crop of challengers are the best he's ever faced. For starters, I do think Our Conor will finish ahead of him in March as I think he'll improve more from last month, and will act better round Cheltenham. Of course this is the most exciting race of the meeting and I'll be happy to be wrong as long as there are no hard-luck stories.
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TNO is 4.2 tonight and HF is 4.6. I genuinely can't believe this - the current prices are an insult to HF and today did nothing to enhance TNO's claims with zarkandar getting done over. I'm genuinely bemused that TNO is fav - it's bonkers
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talk about champagne fevers jumping,tno will go to pot in the jumping stakes once the going gets tough !
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Couldn't agree more Tory. Baffles me TNO is fav as well.
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