probably shut up shop for a few weeks like a.king not ideal 6 weeks from the festival.

6 weeks til the big gig - surely its just chemical time isn't it?

On the Champion, I still think we haven't seen TNO run in the conditions he needs, just off the pace of a strongly run gallop, since the Neptune. He's had to make it all against both Zarkander and MTOY, which doesn't suit him. He needs to be produced fairly late, taking advantage of his change of pace, which is explosive.

To beat Zarkander so convincingly and to almost beat MTOY with conditions dead against him show how good he is. I'm not at all concerned by an aging HF, an overhyped OC or MTOY.

The one that does make me a bit nervous is Annie Power and I wish I'd taken some at a big price to cover my bet - my biggest of the Festival - on The New One. Other than that the only thing I'm worried about is whether to go back in again. I probably won't because it's Cheltenham, anything can happen and there's no such thing as a gimme, but I'm very confident.

I had to smile at the comment the new one almost beat My tent.if I had been paid out on the horses I backed which almost beat others I'd be a rich man. Regarding the champion hurdle I think that the new one will almost beat My tent again.this time by about 3 lengths

i agree with the fears around TNO's jumping - in another thread, i said that i think there's a very strong argument that TNO's form does not stack up for the churdle when you consider previous big races with decent opposition and close finishes: losing to AFC at last year's chelt trials, losing to Zarkandar at Aintree, losing to MTOY in Xmas hurdle. You also have to reconsider his victory in last year's neptune in light of the (lack of) quality and form of the other horses that day - none of them have gone on to do anything impressive. Also, his victories against Zarkandar this year have been against a horse which is, imo, regressing and have now been put into perspective by AP.

Quite simply STD gets nervous in these big races and goes for home way too early when under pressure - consequently, he will get found out (again) in what will be a very high quality renewal of the churdle.

I'm sure a lot of big buck's punters from saturday will feel the same!

Racing against crap once again I see...

On TNO's Neptune win, Rule the world has turned out to be a perfectly decent enough horse won a grade 3 last time out and has been very difficult to get right, Pont Alexandre hasn't run, thought of very highly enough by WM, Taquin has equipped himself extremely well over fences at 2m and one of the favourites for the the JLT.

His form is from the race is perfectly acceptable compared to any of the other novice hurdlers. His beating of Zarkander reads well enough considering the proximity of that horse to HF in last years CH and especially considering the very tactical nature of the international. The champion hurdle will be a very different affair.

Around what price would Ap be on the day if she went for CH?

Big fan of TNO here...ran in some muddily races this season thus far and  still looked very  impressive. As previously commented on here that TNO needs a strongly run race then attack at the end with his devastating turn of foot. Well surely NTD knows this so why has he not entered a pace maker into the ch to enhance TNO chances? I cant see an obvious front runner in the field so seems pretty obvious to me to do this.. why not give khyber kim an entry haha

maybe...maybe not seary.chelt his track and march his time of year.and good to soft his type of ground..

After watchinG RUK yesterday, im a tad more confident about UDS running in the CH.

Walsh saying how he can maintain such a strong gallop through the middle of a race right to the end,and if he were on HF he would not let him be far ahead!!
Tell you, this horse will light up the race, and he will get the others at it a lot earlier than they would like.
There will be a lot not wanting him in the race who have backed TNO,Tent,HF,OC,
He may set a nice pace for some of them,but I aint sure they will get to him.

Him and AP turn up, its a mullins 1,2,3.....imo.

*we know rather

I was pretty confident until recently that I'd be backing the Tent on the big day, but, with the understandable decision not to run him on Saturday and the seemingly never ending rain, I'm worrying now that Henderson may struggle to get a prep run into him before the main event. I believe the new aim is to run him at Wincanton in two weeks, but that is only three weeks before the Festival, and if it's heavy ground again then, will they want to run him?

You say hurricane fly the 1 to beat which is fair enough ballydoylem but jezki won't finish in the top 3,yet Jezki was only beat 3 length after they got the tactics wrong,so what your saying is the new one,mtoy,our Conner are all gonna be within 3 lengths of the fly,and throw Annie power in if you want,it's gonna be like a 5 furlongs handicap at Goodwood with 20 runners,jezki won't be out of 1st 3 !

@cufno1 -- Jezki is staying on my shortlist for the moment but what used to look like bad luck now seems more akin to a lack of tactical speed and manoeuvrability so that even if his raw talent is sufficient to win a Champion Hurdle, he still needs more than his fair share of luck to avoid being caught flat-footed or getting boxed in.

I agree.

I think Jezki can win, but I think he's probably a very unlikely winner. Adaptability is a massively underrated quality in a potential championship winner, and he scores very poorly compared to the other big guns on that front.

Yep,and they could be behind the winner!! If Mullins runs all his.

hi guys.

does anyone think that TNO can run fast enough to win a CH? in the old days (up to 10 years ago) a horse used to have to of run say 3mins 45 or similar to win a CH... these muddling races still leaves me wondering if hes 100% fast enough...i love the horse just want to see it in black and white to ease my mind..what does anybody else think ..and the race that TNO won at last years festival is it a better guide to winning the CH than the triumph?

In the last 10 winners of the three novice hurdles at the festival, the triumph has provided one winner, the supreme one and Neptune zero.

I think its silly to think one race is a better trial than another. You have to look at how strong each renewal looked going into the race, and what the horses have done since.

I usually looking at the Neptune as the best Champion trial, as winning or coming close in that race usually proves that a horse stays well. I'm surprised to see that the Supreme has actually produced more individual winners than the Neptune in recent years.

Thanks ACS, that was a good post.