Apologies re MTOY going there fresh. Got my wires crossed as it's TNO doing that according to the post this morning. Think that counts against the latter.

People are missing the point with Jezki, he may well come 2nd to Fly in the Champion hurdle or if Fly runs a poor race he may go win it. But the point is if Fly beats him again later this month we know he’s not as good as that horse so it is better siding with the horses he has yet to beat like MTOY or TNO.

Remember 2011, people knocked Fly for beating the same horses in Solwhit and Thousand Stars, Menorah was 2nd fav for the race and he came 5th behind Thousand Stars and had Solwhit not been injured and he’d run he’d surely have been 3rd. Showing the Irish form was indeed strong. But the point being why back a horse you know isn’t good enough to beat Hurricane fly rather than taking a chance on one who has yet to meet him.

People aren’t essentially knocking Jezki, but they are pointing out Hurricane Fly has proven himself a superior horse. Especially as I’m sure Jezki was primed the most for the Ryanair Hurdle hence the weight of money that made him 15/8 from 7/2 on the day.

She can be backed nrnb or nrfb so ay least you have insurance should she not turn up.
If she does it means shes a major player, and advisable to back with one of the concessions imo.
Along with Un de Sceaux, shes one none of us know who good she can be, and unlike others at the top of the market who are probably still improving, shes priced a tad more appealing, as is UDS.

Yeh think you are spot on mate.
Wnt with my bruv to see her at Ascot,and we both agreed she looked a chaser before the race,and agreed she was a stayer after the race.Have her at 40 nrfb for CH,and have gone in on the 5 nrnb for WH.

Still think she would be a fascinating runner in the CH though on soft ground.

UDS is the one that could really shake up the field though with her front running style, could get a few at it a fair way before they would like to.

I'd be very happy to see UDS run. Seems NTD has come to his senses and won't be bringing a pacemaker. As a MTOY fan, the inclusion of UDS woul guarantee a good pace and should help him settle.

Why is Un De Sceaux as short as 16/1?

Has only won 3 races
Hasn't ran in a graded race of any note
Has beat nothing

No, but if they travel imo they should go for World Hurdle, think all depends on Big Bucks comeback run.
AP could be 7/4 after that?

I guess it could get him off the bridle early bud; it's something we won't really know until we see it. Hurricane Fly can seem to win off any kind of gallop (the time he was beat was on ground we are unlikely to see this year), so I doubt we'll see UDS, as his participation is more likely to favour the other two market leaders, particularly MTOY imo.

If he were to win, he'd be an interesting runner at a price, as, like Annie Power, we just don't know how good he is. However, given how hot this race looks this year, he'd have to line up at a price at least what he is now to get me interested.

A blistering pace suits MTOY's because it will force the other horses to expend the same energy as he will be doing "anyhow"...in a slow run race he'll be burning  more then he needs to with his pulling, therefore the other horses in comparison to him will be getting a freebie!! ....a fast pace evens the playing field for a horse like MTOY'S....it's nothing to do with the direct effect on him, it's what it forces the other horses to do...as well as him.

Last years CH is a pretty much perfect example of what MTOY's needs to win the race this year, where fehily during a part of the race blitzed them which killed the horses that went with him including himself late on, that left HF who got a bit outpaced (which just goes to show what was going on up ahead of him) to stay on past dead horses, there wasn't any turn of foot, he stayed on past them but even that was hard work come the end.

Walsh did something different, he employed a sort of concertina approach where he quickened and slowed the pace at differing times, this would mess a horse like MTOY's about because just look at the part of the race up to the first couple of hurdles, Walsh started quickly as you can see as the field were quickly strung out, this will suit tent because it gets them all racing and allows him to travel at the pace that he wants too, then though, Walsh slams on the brakes, the field packs up and tent with all his juices flowing is suddenly saying what's going on here I still want to go faster mate...and begins to pull...all this on and off through the race will have him using himself up too much and with CF happy to race in this way had something left at the end while tent was all used up.

The strong pace issue doesn't neccesarily revolve around him finishing strongly and quickening away from the others off of a strong pace, it's about him being able to travel in his usual way throughout the race which is his big plus point and then that being enough maintained to the line being enough... whilst others are then adversely affected by it at the end of the race through having to match him during the race

All horses have X amount of energy to burn during a race, they all deliver it in a differing style, some can travel off of a strong gallop and keep that going to the line , others can't, but keep going at the same pace when others wilt and grind past them, some can travel and quicken....it's about how the pace of the race pans out that will suit some over others...that's how I see it anyhow...who knows though

A couple of things about Jezki. One, I don't think Mrs H has ever trained a festival hurdles winner. Two, his jumping by and large isn't the best. I find it hard to see him winning. Interesting that Champagne Fever's Supreme form makes him such an obvious contender, yet he has never even been considered for the race. I suppose his trainer would have a fair handle on what's required. I definitely don't think the Fly is in love with Cheltenham though, beaten two years ago and did a lot of labouring last year. This will, all going well, be Ruby's fourth go on him in the Champion. Maybe those previous experiences will help him to coax a more typical performance out of the Fly this time. It promises to be a good race as ever, but I agree with the earlier poster who named the other Mullins horses as the biggest dangers. I note that Annie Power is in the same ownership as Champagne Fever.

Haventaclue - Mrs H won the County with Spirit Leader in about 2003. I tend to agree though that Jezki has it to do.

I apologize to Mrs H.

Sounds very much like Un de Sceaux is going to run and appears to have an engine visually.  Big ask, but I was impressed today on how he  destroyed admittedly vastly inferior horses. Couldn't have been more impressive though. Chances?

Very impressed with that could catch them all out in the champion hurdle if there not careful, quickly took the 16/1 nrnb after the race.

yea sounds like hes gonna make a nice pace maker for the new one just what he needs the quicker un de sceaux goes the better gone be a great race just hope they all get there!

UDS will not beat MTOY

Think it's more positive for MTOY than anyone else. The faster the pace the better he'll be

Agreed Tory. As a MTOY fan, I'll be delighted if UDS runs.

strange conundrum for mullins as would the running of UDS help the new one and the tent more than it would the fly from the pace angle,or is he going there with a live chance? UDS could be a superstar but to be fair hes not beaten anything yet . By the way what year did peaty sandy win the Scottish national was one of my first bets as a nipper.