Cheltenham Festival
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metcheck-cheltenham weather watch
metcheck-cheltenham weather watch
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and approx 13 mm on the other days its saying now matey
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Judo if Saturday they get 14mm it'll be very soft - and there is other rain forecast. But no rain yet actually fallen
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completely lost now, although soft will do me on Tuesday, but want it dry by Friday
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If the rain comes as forecast on Sat, it will be very soft on Tues and won't be good on Friday. It's taken 3 weeks to get it back to good to soft
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Forecast has changed several times in the last 48 hours. We'll have a much better idea of what we are likely to get on Saturday by Thursday. For the time being, no rain due before Wednesday PM, by which stage the ground will be verging on 'good'.
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well I'm going to top up on Zark, Melodic and At Fishers Cross
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Not going to top up on Zark, enough exposure on him. May now back Melodic, makes sense as a back up to MTOY. If it comes should persuade Pipe to send Dynaste to Jewson and hopefully owners of Captain Conan will realise their best chance of a win is actually in the Arkle.
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Hmm latest stick reading 6.1, quite a way from the mid 7s we had at last years festival, gets into the 5s then we're into real soft ground territory
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Metcheck forecast for Cheltenham week is appalling: snow and freezing temperatures. The forecast for 2 or 3 days away is changing by the hour though, so it'll probably have 20 degrees for next week by tomorrow.
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they seem to have removed the 15mm dowsing at the weekend now
http://www.metcheck.com/UK/7days.asp?zipcode=#.UTU9SaI1CSo |
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They seem to have increased the Friday night rainfall though.
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right! it's the same volume but starts Friday afternoon and persists til Saturday lunch time then pretty much just cold and dry til the end of the festival
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I work as an agronomist and look for accurate forecasts .Metcheck is possibly the least accurate. Trying to predict rain more than 4 days ahead is unreliable. So reading on here people backing for 7 days time based on the going is poor judgment.
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I agree that the changes have been so big and quickly it gives the impression of being clueless. one thing seems consistent though is that some rain is coming?
So which site is more accurate have you found? And from what you know, do they need to put frost covers down? And in your experience and naturally interest in racing, what rainfall may be required to change the going? |
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This site seems pretty good and detailed.
http://www.myweather2.com/Horse-Racing/United-Kingdom/Cheltenham-Racecourse.aspx?sday=7 Light patchy rain from Wednesday to Sunday (all depends what hits the course with it's unique little microclimate, but can't see it drying to good or going heavy) and then really cold next week - down to -4 at night.  |
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Getting bizarrely obsessive at looking at metcheck now - laughing at myself as well as the website.
Anyway now says 12mm Friday, 21mm Saturday, 6mm Sunday |
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I find weather.com is generally nearer the mark
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Cheltenham+UKXX0032:1:UK No more than a 60% chance of rain any day according to them..... |
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Listened to the local forecast from the Bristol Weather Centre about 40 minutes ago.
Dull wet and windy for the next few days. Drizzle mostly with heavier rain over the higher ground. Stark contrast to today which will be sunny and warm with temperature of up to 14 degrees! Don't think Claisse will be watering (he will be disappointed  ) and the quickest ground we can anticipate is 'good to soft'. Might be 'soft' by the start of the meeting. Presumably we will get an update from the course later in the week. Last press release relating to the ground/weather was last Wednesday. |
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keep the local stuff coming - appreciate your efforts here festivalfanatic
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sabetudo 05 Mar 13 05:17 Joined: 13 Feb 05 | Topic/replies: 94 | Blogger: sabetudo's blog
I work as an agronomist and look for accurate forecasts .Metcheck is possibly the least accurate. Trying to predict rain more than 4 days ahead is unreliable. So reading on here people backing for 7 days time based on the going is poor judgment. garbage I mentioned 3 horses which I have already backed heavily (Melodic Rendezvous, Zarkandar & At Fishers Cross) even though I have been anticipating good to soft at the softest and their best form is on soft. I am therefore increasing my stakes now as there is a very good chance the ground will end up softer than I initially expected, and certainly will not be faster, and if that is the case then all of those horses chances will be significantly increased and their prices should then drop meaning I could lay off my additional exposure and increase my average odds so far from poor judgement, it is pure logic as I am in no worse position if the rain does not arrive (exactly the same that I expected when I started backing them) and a potentially better one if it does |
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IT'S on the way, the six-million dollar question is how much of it arrives.
Rain forecast for Cheltenham is due in town on Wednesday and if the maximum amount does come, the official going for the William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle on Tuesday may yet be soft, clerk of the course Simon Claisse said on Tuesday. The racecourse and surrounding areas were bathed in early spring sunshine on Tuesday, and after assessing the course Claisse said: "It has dri ed out a bit today on the Old and New courses, chases and hurdles and is good to soft, good in places. "The cross-country course is good to soft, soft in places. We've been dry for nearly three weeks but starting tomorrow we are expecting rain, between 12-15 millimetres, into Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. "If we get the upper end of the rain forecast, it could still end up as soft going." |
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is there much rain falling in cheltenham today???
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the biggest concern will be the covers going down on damp ground ( which is the likely scenario come sunday im afraid ) that will only serve to produce that horrid tacky muck we had had to endure many times this season already.. maybe the batton has been handed over to the sluggers again.
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Does anyone know what would be the contingency plan used should any days racing be lost due to the predicted freezing temperatures next week?
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9.30am - Going remains Good to soft, good in places after 2mm of rain overnight.
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Much more rain expected today Roger?? Im hoping for a couple of dry days to encourage Pipe to go for Sun All with Dynaste.
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I've come to the conclusion that metcheck must randomly generated, or someone's having a laugh with it. They've just changed the projected rain on Saturday from about 30mm to 0mm. I need to stop looking at it constantly, but I can't seem to help myself!
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A vile day today.
Grey skies. Sporadic rainfall. Nothing too heavy just constant drizzle really. |
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Good to Soft all over
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THEY SHOULD HAVE THE RACING IN THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST FOR CHRIST SAKE.
WE CAN ALL WEAR SHORTS AND T SHIRTS AND SIP ON COCKTAILS ALL AFTERNOON. |
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Joking aside if you are going wear a decent coat and a bobble hat.
The last thing you want to be doing up there is freezing your bollux off cause your trendy jacket is a flimsy little cotton piece. |
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soft all round as of now.
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duffy
08 Mar 13 13:50 soft all round as of now. Where did you get that info Duffy? |
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RUK now, andy clifton is on there and saying they've had 3 mils this morning in a sharp burst, still drizzling, he says claisse will walk the course this afternoon and he'll change it to soft, he also says that due to the forecast, it is unlikely it will get any quicker before the first day.
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Head of Comms at Chelts just said it on Racing UK
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Thanks - lets hope it stays that way.
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There's a fair chance that the whole course could be under covers before much longer isn't there.
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Soft ground is total dream scenario for me, bar Dodging Bullets.
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Sorry CVB but weren't you going on about that Cheltenham would be good ground, March the driest month of the year and you would build your AP bets around traditional festival ground? And yet now soft ground is perfect for your portfolio?
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i think he might mean the fly roo as he was the likely winner on g/s but is a shoe in on soft imo
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