Cheltenham Festival
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metcheck-cheltenham weather watch
metcheck-cheltenham weather watch
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Replies: 274
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i'm no expert on going and i was worried what simon holt said after a race this afternoon when the fancied runners ran badly, he put it down to the change in the going courses are now getting after months of rain and he said it could be a cheltenham with lots of outsiders winning because of this. i was watching a race during the week where a well backed odds on shot finished unplaced and the same reason was given. what do you think the chances of this happening are? i was feeling quite confident about my cheltenham ante post bets before i heard him say this.
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Every chance that there will be some surprises, especially in the handicaps.
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this is precisely why I have been paying little attention to 'form' even though everyone keeps telling me 'form' is really important - I much prefer profile and preparation with attention on standout performances and ratings
the going is gonna may a huge difference and I'm still not 100% they won't water - The Weather Channel website has the Saturday as 45% chance of rain hen the Sunday 30%, every other day has 20% chance of rain if it does not arrive they will water |
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There are a couple of long range forecasts that give plenty of rain on the Weds and Thurs of the festival, one gives 27mm of rain in one night(weds)
 Could be a right old mess over running plans |
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Mild and warm until the rain comes on Wednesday but several of the online LR forecasts are now saying COLD festival week with a chance of SNOW Tuesday and Wednesday and max btw 4-6c. That cant be right !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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when watering does he put on a dash each night.... or does he drown it on the Monday night?
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few yrs ago (2006? 2007?) it said it would rain (heavy at times) every day for the week leading upto the Festival and in the event there was a shower on the Weds and nothing else! Very inexact science.
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michael fish couldnt predict a near hurricane hitting england,dont see how they can now predict how much rain will fall on a given day
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they only really give a probability
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what's the latest prediction?
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Unchanged judo - rain/showers Wed-Sun but the forecast amounts vary considerably. We'll have a better idea by the middle of the week.
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ta, just wondering whether to keep taking prices or wait
 wanna get a lot more on but worried it's gonna pee down hmmm |
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Well I'd hope we're fairly safe up to the 5 day decs stage surely? Precious little value in the AP market now, NRNB or not.
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The bbc forecast for next week is grim, particularly in the south west. I think I'd better go on a crash diet as I think it might get a little crowded in the Arkle! It is not fun in the rain.
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the rain forcast is minimal to say the least in the run up to the festival, the rain forcast during the meeting means claisse won,t need to water like he usually does on the wed night
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All changing by the day. Looked yesterday on metcheck and they were forecasting over 12mm on Sunday - now a dry day.
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lord knows now
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What is the current state of the ground? I listened to an interview with Claisse on timeform radio last week where he agreed that the ground would need less rain than usual to turn, interesting to hear what he thinks with just over a week left. Looks to me rain forecast every day 5mm on sunday according to the review I just had a peek at.
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In a press release issued last Wednesday, Claisse said that the prevailing going of 'soft, good to soft in places' would switch to 'good to soft, soft in places' after another 5 or 6 days without any rain. It is also going to be a very drying day tomorrow - sunny with temperatures in the mid teens. He also stated that if the forecast 15-18mm of rain arrives before the meeting, then he would expect the going to start 'soft' though it looks like Sunday and Monday are now going to be largely dry.
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hmm my lay of soft going looking overly generous now.
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Official going now "good to soft" with more drying days to come. Some rain later in the week but wouldn't expect it to amount to very much.
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umm,good to soft with some rain to come.
Given he said it would not take too much for it to turn soft,this could really go either way,depending on how much we will get,as pretty much has been clear for some time. No wonder connections are waiting till late,and who can blame them. |
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good ole british weather
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As of 3.15 today both courses now good to soft.
Check it yourself here - http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html Really warm and sunny day tommorrow forecasted...then dry on Wednesday...then we'll see ! |
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I think it will be better that we get some rainfall so that Claisse doesn't water. Some forecasts have quite a bit if rain in the actual week and if that comes in top of watered ground it could be horrible and less predictable than genuine soft ground.
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yes I prefer naturally soft to watered drying out so will take some rain even though I'm on good ground horses mainly
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I've really tried to keep an open mind this year over the ground with my AP bets and so as a result they have been smaller in number.
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Look at metcheck's forecast for Saturday
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it wasnt like that earlier, hope this weather doesnt materialise
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got a link?
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The point is come tomorrow they could be forecasting a dry day!
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http://www.metcheck.com/UK/7days.asp?zipcode=cheltenham
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Get your money on heavy! Hopefully that's no accurate
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no wiser
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I'd already worked that out
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wet a finger and hold it up in the air |
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earlier it said about 8mm rain to the festival now its saying 14mm+ for just the saturday
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if we were 3 weeks away from the festival i wouldnt blink, but 7 days away its time to take notice....
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ok so one really wet day and the rest not much
accept that if it prevents Claisse turning on the taps |
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I just did as instructed and its a westerly = rain
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