Cheltenham Festival
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First Lieutenant, Ryanair or Gold Cup?
First Lieutenant, Ryanair or Gold Cup?
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Yep, read that as well Judo but I also feel that for the Ryanair you need a horse that is almost top class at 3m but can't quite cut it. FL for me is that horse, though of course appreciate Cue Card would be a HUGE danger.
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Cue Card is well clear on my ratings and has an improving profile . I expect him to run 171 minimum possibly more depending on the state of the going which is 6lb clear. That's just my numbers but they have been very accurate many times over a long period. Basically says he is much faster than anything else in the field
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IF he heads to The Ryanair, I expect FL to come out on top as I feel that he will stay the trip at the pace best of all. I've been very accurate in the past with my rational.
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does not win very often though does he? 2 wins from 11 chase starts? does not inspire me to think he is suddenly going to win a red hot race just because he stays 3 miles
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for those that like form, on the line through Bobs Worth FL has a fair bit to find with Cue Card. He was beaten 2 and a half lengths at level weights, Cue Card GAVE 7lb and got headed last stride. So you might want to think about 'expecting' FL to win - has to improve past Cue Card. Or are we ignoring the form because it doesn't suit the argument?
Anyway not long now til we find out for sure  |
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Judo, valid question: Have you factored in the fact it was BW's first run of the season and first chasing start? Granted I can see your point but if that run had come AFTER his wind op, then it's a very valid one but FL's supporters can also suggest he may well have had a wind problem before the KG? Great work btw on your trends write up. Neither trends or eye test man but combo of both. GL!
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I am trying to be as objective as possible in all things. However, if you are asking my personal opinion then I would say it was a disgrace that CC got beat by BW at Newbury. I know people object to armchair jockeys but that was a shocking ride by JT. Watch the replay and you will see he is cantering in between the last two and JT looks over his shoulder and sees BG rowing away and decides to sit there swinging on the bridle and pops the last. At the time I was screaming 'pressing the fecking button now you dipstick' and so on because he had a ton of horse and could have nicked 3 to 5 lengths easily running down to the last and won going away.
So in short, no! I factor in that CC was giving 7lb and should have won by 3 lengths. Swap the jockeys and he would have gagged up. The horse has gotten nowhere near the credit he deserves but he might after he bolts up. |
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Sometimes a race suits certain horses - Cue Card has looked top gear when running in small fields and being able to dominate. Chances are there will be 10 runners + in this race, other front runners like Champion Court etc taking Cue Card on so although on form he has a very good chance the race might not play to his strengths. The worry for First Lieutenant is that he could be a bit soft in a battle which might explain his poor win ratio. Slight negatives for both horses but I think one of them will prevail it just depends how the race pans out
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Quite clearly CC represents a huge threat to all if he turns up and would see him as the most likely winner if FL does indeed go GC route. If both CC and FL turn up it would make it a great race tbh and CC should be fav - if he isn't then it would make him a back up bet as I see it between them.
I agree that CC should have won the Newbury race and was given a poor ride. However if the race had in fact been another 1F, then Bob would have won 3-4 lengths. No doubt that giving him 7lbs was a huge effort, but we are now talking about horses the best part of 18 months on. As has already been said it was Bob's first chase start and his seasonal debut and over a distance short of his optimum. To be honest if BW was to turn up in the Ryanair, I would fancy FL to beat him as well. I just see the Ryanair as the best opportunity for FL to give his optimum performance. As you say judo we'll soon see. GL |
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CC is the most likely winner full stop. On my peak ratings I have CC well clear of FL and the only worry I have is the jockey
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IMO FL is clearly the most likely winner according to MY interpretation of the form book FULL STOP. He's likely to show improved form in the spring like previous years.
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Many synthetics haven't been upgraded to meteorological definition in order to consider factors such as weather.
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I would like to see some argument that makes FL more likely than CC then if you think it is clear. Which particular runs would indicate FL can even beat CC? The RSA, Hennessey? What? Assuming you are ignoring the trends then what makes you think FL is 'clearly the most likely winner'? Not having a go, I just want to know what you see in the form that I don't. For me, CC is well in front on the Sprinter Sacre and Bobs Worth form. Which of FLs runs do you think is better than that? I mean the last time he won any race was in Nov 2011. Hardly seems to justify a claim that he is 'clearly the most likely' so please enlighten me
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I'm not going to submit a full detailed report your highness but you pick and choose which pieces of form that you like and ignore the others that do not support your theories. At the end of the day EVERYONE is making an educated guess and as much as you might not believe it most people on here have extensive knowledge of this game and the festival in particular. I believe that it takes a high class 3 miler to win the Ryanair, which is supported by trends and that FL is the most likely of those that meet that criteria. I think that CC will go well but won't have enough at the end. FL's big race chase form will make him go very close here IMO while I am attributing his poorer chase performances to unsuitable ground when Mouse was trying to get experience into him.
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your initial post was clearly provocative, you come on and make a confrontational post like this "IMO FL is clearly the most likely winner according to MY interpretation of the form book FULL STOP" and then when asked to support it you just throw insults like a child with no evidence to support it, just some gut feeling in the back of your mind somewhere that you need 3 mile form
Fair enough but that does not make him clearly the most likely because anyone would put the horse that recently won a Grade 1 chase that has provided the winner ahead of a horse that has not won a chase outside novice company and where the form lines clearly show the one ahead of the other. There is no logical way you can conclude that it is 'clear' that FL is a more likely winner. Yes he has a chance but your statement holds no water |
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very fortunate winner of a grade 1 i might say
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A good chance CC and FL don't run in this race
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Judo, I'm afraid that it is clear to me.
"CC is the most likely winner full stop." My following post was a parody of this arrogant statement which appears typical of your mentality and to me and probably others rather antagonising. This place is about opinions, no one's is more valid than another' persons. For some bizarre reason you seem to feel that your word is gospel and that all others are purely going on "gut feeling". I' m sorry but that's not the case. Anyway, best of luck. |
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Anyone would think its a 2 horse race,reading this thread.
Far from it my friends. |
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hello stranger where ya been?
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i do expect big runs from both FL and CC,and no surprise from me should either win,but im expecting a good close race between a few more than 2 horses,and no surprise from me should any of them win.
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so I was right, it was a childish post coz it disagreed with your opinion and so you thought you would throw insults. Very grown up. Then when challenged you can't back your opinion up with any supporting evidence so throw more insults. Could not argue your way out of a wet paper bag really
Budd, indeed there are plenty of dangers it was just that a conversation got started earlier in the thread by Tory and Roobuck last night and that's how we ended up discussing CC v FL |
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ok mate,been away in Philadelphia last week,no account access to betfair out there
 ,just playing a bit of catch up right now. |
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I'm not going to keep going over this but the fact that your claiming that " I'm right" again shows your reluctance to take on a different opinion. Your interpretation of "supporting evidence" must differ from mine.
 For sure it's not a 2 horse race. Looks a stronger than average renewal with Sprinter likely to scare off several from the Champion Chase. |
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What did I do?
 Just like at home, get blamed for everything |
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i can relate to that!! |
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lol the ryanair always causes the most arguments, as jasey says neither may run which makes bickering on a race that may never happen a little ridiculous and quite rightly roobuck has apologised for it all
back to the topic - FL and Ryanair, well the rumour mill is in full flow at the preview nights and there is all sorts of rubbish being dealt out. The FACT is this! and I get this from a spurious second hand source, lol, connections genuinely do not know what race FL will go for yet. |
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If Cue Card outstays First Lieutenant up the hill in a Ryanair I'll **** chuck it....
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Catch Me ifyoucan 02 Mar 13 00:15 Joined: 09 Sep 03 | Topic/replies: 4,030 | Blogger: Catch Me ifyoucan's blog
Thanks to @Emmet_Kennedy - your in running twitter host ! © Good panel there.....Tom Segal, Francombe, Davy, Henry DeB and featuring Jimmy Nesbitt (owner of Riverside Theatre - 2012 Ryanair winner). @Davy Russell says Arvika Ligeonniere is a camel and he wouldn't even lead him up in the Arkle. "The ambulance comes 3rd in this" #cheltfest Tom Segal says you can't back MTOY @ 6/4 in Supreme John tips MR @ 10/1 Henry gives Champagne Fever a big shout. Panel in agreement that Simonsig is a cert, but too short. Baily Green talked up e/w @ 40/1 Noel O'Brien and Davy Russell trade insults over Overturn. Davy says he has no chance. Tom Segal opposes Hurricane Fly and really likes Rock On Ruby. @nickluck disagrees strongly. "Hurricane Fly will win the Champion Hurdle". Jessica Harrington likes Hurricane Fly and doesn't rate Zarkander. Mick Fitzgerald has backed Gradnouet. Davy Russell - "It's obvious Hurricane Fly wasn't right last year. I really, really, really think Hurricane Fly is going to win". Jimmy Nesbit has ordered more wine! #cheltfest Mick Fitz and Jessica Harrington are talking up Pont Alex. Tom Segal thinks Taquin Du Seuil is one of the best bets of the #cheltfest @Emmet_Kennedy Nick, Jessie and Davy talking sense I see! Tom Segal "Unioniste is the best jumper in the field and will improve a lot for his last run". #RSA Panel in agreement that Dyaste will be very hard to beat. Henry thinks Back In Focus will run in the 4 miler and Boston Bob will go for the RSA. Quote from Mike Cattermole "David Casey says Hurricane Fly is working much better than last year". Davy Russell is now abusing BIG MAC! "If he was here, people would be leaving because they would be sick of listening to him". Keen on Our Conor in the Triumph. Everyone saw what he did LTO and I expect more to be forthcoming. #cheltpreview Henry hasn't decided what race Sizing Europe will run in. "Maybe if Henderson gives SS one of those funny injections..." #ChampionChase Henry's Nicky joke gets a mixed reaction from the crowd. Leaning towards Ryanair as he thinks he is better over further these days. Tom Segal says SS is the SECOND best chaser he has ever seen after Jessica Harrington rightly corrects him! #MoscowFlyerTheGreatestEver Davy Russell says the Queen Mother Champion Chase is a farce of a race. Only Sizing Europe can challenge him. Begs Henry to run him. Davy Russell says Moyle Park doesn't run in the Champion Bumper. Goes for the Landrover. He's heard Clondaw Court is Mullins best runner. Davy Russell picks Liz Doyles Le Vent D'Antan and says "he was not for sale for any price". @nickluck Likes Union Dues in the Champion Bumper. Davy Russell endorses his selection. Doesn't rate the English challenge. Tom Segal is interested in Empiracle for the Bumper. Ryanair Grand Crus has had stomach ulcers and John Francome fancies him to bounce back in the Ryanair. Noel O'Brien is sweet on First Lieutenant who he describes as "different class" #Ryanair Davy Russell "No word of lie, there's no decision on First Lieutenant's race". Worked this morning under Brian Cooper. Jimmy Nesbitt "Clearly FL is a Gold Cup horse. It's what Mouse wants. It's what the People want. It's what I ****g want!" #RyanairChase Davy Russell clearly is desperate for FL to run in the Ryanair and doesn't think he has the stamina for the 3m2f trip of the Gold Cup. Davy Russell - "Brian Cooper is a grand fella but if he think's he's riding FL in the Ryanair Chase he can **** right off!" #RyanairChase Mick Fitz is very strong on FL. Henry "If our lad goes for it I'd be very keen". #SizingEurope Mike Cattermole says no decision has been made on Cue Cards target. Jimmy Nesbitt is trying to persuade everyone to run their horse's in everything but the Ryanair. Henry "We'll scare them all away Jimmy" World Hurdle Tom Segal – Get Me Out Of Here is a great price for the World Hurdle. A cracking each way bet. #cheltfest Tom Segal hates Monksland. Thinks Peddlers Cross is interesting. #WorldHurdle Francome makes Reve De Sivola @ 5/1 his bet of the meeting Nick Luck likes Smad Place @ 20/1 for the World Hurdle and Mick Fitz agrees. Mick says "Its worrying that I agree with Nick". Triumph John Francome is very sweet on Our Conor. "Nice way of going, neat jumper and will handle any going'. Noel O'Brien "Our Conor head and shoulders the best of the Irish". "I would rather pull my fingernails out with a rusty vice grip then talk about this race. Ould second rate flat horses."- Davy Russell I'd rather ride Cathy Barry - and I'm told she's not pretty - then ride something in this. Ould yokes." - Davy Russell on the Triumph Davy Russell sold last years Triumph Hurdle winner... That night explain why he's so bitter. #cheltpreview Albert Bartlett Francome rates At Fishers Cross very highly in the AB. The one to beat. Tom Segal tips African Gold. Jimmy Nesbitt announces to the crowd that he has fallen in love with Davey Russell. Henry will run Sizing Gold in the AB and he likes him. #cheltfest Davy Russell talks up Road To Riches but says the Mullins team can't get enough of Ballycasey. #LumpOn #cheltfest Gold Cup Davy Sir Des Champ put on loads of condition, has been trained all season for this race. Davy says Sir Des Champs is his best ever chance of winning a Gold Cup. Davy talks about the fact Long Run has been dropped 10lbs, seems to think he is regressing. "Ratings really matter". Noel O'Brien & Nick Luck are rowing about Long Run's rating. Nick says LR can't have deteriorated 10lbs and still be able to win G1s John Francome says its not Long Run regressing, it's his jockey! Everybody laughs. This should be shown on Comedy Central. Henry - "Sir Des Champs has been trained for the race and will be hard to beat". Mike Cattermole can't have Long Run. Tips Bobs Worth and so does Mick Fitz. Tom Segal thinks its a coin flip between SDC and BW.(Tom Segal sided with SDC) The panel is split and its 50/50 for Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth. @hayleyladbrokes tips SC #GoldCup Davy Russell is asked who will win the Gold Cup "Ask Brian Cooper!" Jimmy Nesbitt tips First Lieutenant for the Gold Cup to much applause and laughter. Davy wasn't amused. Handicaps Handicap selections: Alderwood is tipped by Mike and Henry Mick says @PFNicholls has plotted up Saphirdeu for the Fred Winter. Jessica Harrington tips Tennis Cap who goes for the County Hurdle and her horse Bostons Angel in the Cross Country. Tom Segal tips Donald McCains Super Duty with Derek O'Connor booked to ride. - Kim Muir Charity Bets Mike - Zarkander Henry - Sizing Europe Mick - Dynaste @hayleyladbrokes - Pont Alex @nickluck - Module in the Jewson Davy Russell says his best ride is First Lieutenant in the Ryanair. (Jimmy ) |
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JR, cheers for post. Interesting debate there with JT. You have a point there BUT how can you link the form lines with Sprinter Sacre and Bob's Worth on recent form? By using that line of form 18 months ago, you are effectively saying Bobs Worth has not improved and did not need the chasing experience in that Cue Card race and is 10lb inferior to that rival in receipt of 7lbs and a "likely" 3-4 lengths beating had the right jockey been on board and ALSO found the 20f trip his optimum. I can see your point of view but equally, can also see far too many suppositions in that school of thought. BW is proven better over further, yet Cue Card apparently got his optimum trip. Even if I brought into your school of thought there is one problem: I'd be betting on certain race conditions suiting Cue Card in that, an uncontested lead and a "perfect" ride from Tizzard.
Some good points made by JT too. If BW has proven himself to better over further given optimum racing conditions, First Lieutenant's connections have not found the perfect storm for the horse. Cheltenham course, better on Spring ground but the big question is distance. Stays 3 miles but not as well as others (similarly to Flemenstar). That is evident. His class is not in question and he definitely belongs at this level. Perhaps it's over this trip that he won his NEptune Hurdle over that proves the key in getting FL in the winner's enclosure? Cue Card has similar questions too as regards to stamina as Captain Chris who may well have tested him crashed out. He loves the course, acts well on spring ground but what is his trip? 2 miles? Possibly so as without Sprinter Sacre, he'd be the favourite for the Champion Chase. On balance FL's form is still quite attractive running consistent races at the highest level over further, jumping well and falling short to stronger stayers. Given his love of Cheltenham and spring ground, the key may well be his versatility in regards to tactics. The New Course will be a stiffer test of stamina and if Champion Court lines up, Cue Card won't have it his own way and may not find too much off the bridle if his class is not enough to take him clear of the leaders. Statistics are not relevant here as far too small a sample size. Cue Card backers for me are betting on a certain type of ride and a perfect storm of circumstances all combining to allow Cue Card the run of the race. Far too many assumptions for my liking. First Lieutenant is not a perfect candidate either given his losing sequence but he has more versatility with only one question against him: Does he have enough pace over 2m 5f at Cheltenham? If I hadn't got involved already last month, I'd be inclined to see FL as a free each way bet to nothing and he'd be my choice for sure ahead of Cue Card. Cue Card has more charisma and perhaps natural brilliance then FL but FL's greater reliability, versatility and stamina wins. He's become a very good jumper too and I have no worries on that score. Best of luck guys. Great debate too. |
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@ cause and effect - great post, even handed and measured. Wholly inappropriate for this thread.
 Now can we get back to all the bickering that apparently I started and ming has claimed I have apologised for |
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One point about First Lieutenant is that I think it's hard to pinpoint and nail down his ability as he peaks for one race a year at Cheltenham. He got beaten by that dog Kauto Stone in Ireland earlier this season when he wasn't 100% wound up and in previous years when running at peak fitness he beat the Champion Hurdle winner over hurdles and last season got touched off by the Gold Cup favourite. There is every chance he will run a career best in the Ryanair given 2 miles 5 furlongs on spring ground over fences look his ideal conditions - whether that will be good enough to win the race is another question but i wouldn't be putting a ceiling on what rating he will run at the festival given how exceptional Mouse Morris is at peaking his horses for one day. Just my opinion
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Swagger.
That pretty much sums up my opinion of FL and his chance. Anyone care to suggest how many (if any) winners Gigginstown will have this year. I'd say 3, perhaps even 4 as I consider them to have several decent opportunities. |
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yep,hes a horse that in previous 2 years at the festival has peaked.he could well do so again.
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Gigginstown would have some cheek to not side with Mouse Morris's wants considering he gave them their first and only GC winner. I hope he prevails as FL has earned his right to run. imo. glta.
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Walofs that post above!!!
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See to be honest I'm just gonna let rip here...anyone backing FL for Gold Cup is a mug
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Sinfonian yer a mug as is Graeme 83.Sintonian trying to work out why I've not went in without nrnb...why would I??you've steamed in on a horse that's got a 10% of turnin up with the jock pleading it runs in Ryanair.once declared you can be the big man that says "I've had a go"...so ****???
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Maelduins a balloon too as is Ming.just laugh at you both to be honest
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Cue Card my arse an'all...
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