Cheltenham Festival
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First Lieutenant, Ryanair or Gold Cup?
First Lieutenant, Ryanair or Gold Cup?
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Replies: 579
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You read wrong. I have taken a stance on one horse only. I have backed SDC, but unlike all the pretenders, i admit when i have backed more than one. You see, the trickm ofevery forum big shot is to run a book on a race ante post, then take one fancy from their boom and run with it. Well i'm saying **** what youve ehard and **** what youve saw, im with FL and if anything else wins you will not hear a squaeak no matter what the financial mathematics say.
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No ante post punter is stupid enough to ride with one horse
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'This is just a saga now' as papa lazarou would say. I'v backed FL for the gold cup, but as Graeme quite rightly points out, to have backed that alone AP would have been idiotic. I've got BW and SC on my side as well. I like FL, and believe, thats BELIEVE, as I am entitled to do, that when it comes up good to soft he will improve again. Even if he gets within 2L of Bobs again, as in the RSA, that would be good enough for 2nd or 3rd. Go for the GC Mouse!!!!
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I agree, go for the GC Mouse but got no chance of beating Sir Des Champs!
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I think we all want to see all of the best horses turn up in the best race, and for the right reason. Any horse with a sniff of a chance of winning the GC should be running in it, regardless of what the mug owners plans are.
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That's why the Ryanair should be a grade 2, the grade 1 runners would have to carry a penalty and it would force then into the GC or QM.
I think SDC should go for the Ryanair - he bottled it for the RSA last year because he was no match for FL, he rightly went the girly Jewson route and should go the wimps way again.  |
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lol that really is clutching at straws!! hahaha the horse needs 3 miles plus already, there's zero chance of him running at less than that! Wishful thinking from a FL backer perhaps? Like your style
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Sadly Davy Russell has all but confirmed tonight that he is Ryanair bound. I hope for their sake he wins it to justify what is in my eyes a bad decision
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PREVIEW 2NIGHT (THUR)WORD WAS IT WAS GOLD CUP CHAIR FOR THE EVENING SAID HE SPOKE WITH MOUSE
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So just to confirm then. He runs in both the Ryanair and then the Gold Cup? Reading between lines here Mouse wants to go Gold Cup as he has done all along. But it's possible as retained rider Davy does have some input and wouldn't want these both to run in the same race so has decided that they will run FL in the Ryanair, now all we need to know is if he has that on good authority
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Look we all know what Mouse wants....he won't be deciding though. Davy himself confirmed that he (and therefore Gigginstown) want him in the Ryanair
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Mouse got his way last year and I wouldn't be surprised if he does again this year
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Surely it's got to be Ryanair given the market move. Also, I'm not sure I trust anyone who can't turn their caps lock off and refuses to use punctuation.
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Christ this forum really is ridiculous at times. One person is saying he is Ryanair bound, the other saying no actually it's the GC. And both sources of info from the Preview Evening apparently. You couldn't make this sh1t up.
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Surely, as the trainer of the horse, Mouse has more input than the Jockey. The final decision will be the Owner's not Davys.
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Nutkins
01 Mar 13 09:31 Joined: 14 Mar 05 | Topic/replies: 38 | Blogger: Nutkins's blog Surely it's got to be Ryanair given the market move. Also, I'm not sure I trust anyone who can't turn their caps lock off and refuses to use punctuation. get a fucin life ye d!ck CAP THAT surely mouse should consult you on where he runs the horse! BY THE WAY ONLY PASSING ON SOMETHING THAT I HEARD AT PREVIEW HE CAN RUN IN THE DINGLE DERBY FOR ALL I CARE IF A HORSE DOSEN'T RUN IN A CERTAIN RACE ITS NOT THE END OF THE WORLD |
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Agree Sint and they do run horses against each other quite often,personally hope he goes for Gold Cup.
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I don't understand why so many people think he would be a good thing in the Ryanair. His best form (from plenty of attempts) in a 2.5m chase was winning a pretty average grade 3 novices chase. His one attempt this season, on his favoured good ground, he was well beaten in 4th and finished behind Forpaddydeplaster. It hardly screams Ryanair winner.
I think he has every chance of lasting home in the GC and is a progressive stayer. He ran on well enough in the (English) Hennessy over the GC trip. Last year in the RSA he pulled like stink most of the way and was still only worn down close home by Bobsworth. He's more settled and professional this year, and if he gets decent ground he is one of half a dozen with a chance in an open year. It would be madness to run him in the Ryanair imvho. There's no shortage of madness around this year though. Quevaga skipping the world hurdle to run in the mares race is too ridiculous for words. |
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"I don't understand why so many people think he would be a good thing in the Ryanair."
Most of these posters are on at 10/1 or better for the Ryanair so they have to convince themselves he's a "good thing". It's all pocket talking. On his known form over the Ryanair distance or similar he has a decent chance and 5/1 is short enough. imo. gltu. |
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Most of the posters who are on at 10-1 are already convinced he is a good thing and know that this horse will not get home in the Gold Cup. It is not pocket talking. It is called taking a view. The 10-1 punters could lay off now at 5-1 if we wanted. Those that have taken 12 and 14-1 for the Gold Cup will now see it at 22-1
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So you're convinced he's a good thing in the Ryanair because he "will not get home in the Gold Cup"?
 Nothing points to FL being a good thing in the Ryanair either on form or ratings and thus it's reflected in his price of 5/1. If you backed it @ 10/1 and then layed off @ 5/1 then you think he's a got a 5/1 chance of winning so how is that a "good thing". This is not called "taking a view" it's just being ridiculous because you backed it at a decent price i.e. pocket talking. |
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"That's why the Ryanair should be a grade 2, the grade 1 runners would have to carry a penalty and it would force then into the GC or QM."
Nice line of thought. You should contact RWC with your idea. gltu |
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Maelduin....you're puffin me out man.....there's half a mile between them - completely different races against completely different opposition. The way FL went in the RSA and the Lexus up to around 2m 6f makes me think that he's a good 10-1 shot for the Ryanair. The way he got passed by Bob in the RSA, again in the Hennessey, and walked home in the Lexus personally tells me all I need to know about his Gold Cup chance. Just my opinion can you honestly tell me that FL is a better stayer than SDC, Long Run, SC, Bobs? And who would be staying on better up the hill in a gruelling Ryanair in your opinion?
Do you think 10-1 is a bad bet? There is no obseession on my part if he turns up in the Ryanair. I've got 10-1 a coupla times but it's covered by NRFB. If he turns up in Gold Cup he will get place layed by me and if he wins or gets placed so be it. Seems to be an army of fans desparate for it to appear in the Gold Cup. "Mouse will rule.....he will have the say...Davy doesn't have an opinion...it's Mouse's horse". Mouse doesn't have the say. It's the owner that will have the last say. and as been demonstrated before on this thread Mouse is prone to talk one loada piish |
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MY VIEW is that this is why there should not be a 4 day festival. Years ago it would be Gold Cup or stay at home.
I don't think it can win the Gold Cup this year but may finish in the first four with good prize money certainly doesn't seem it can beat Bob's Worth on the book. Does Russell know it can't beat SDC or does he not want to choose ?? It can win the Ryanair if it runs. The festival win over ROR was gained in the final strides so he saw out the 2m 5f well enough. Mullins is very confident over SDC but it's festival form is not as good as FL in truth but the Mullins horse will be primed for the spring. It really is all about whether they want to run both in the Gold Cup or not and trying to guess Gigginstown is an easy way to the poor house. If you are sure it will run Ryanair take the price and pray. If you fancy it for the Gold Cup back it NRNB. |
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failing to win a race this season has to be a worry for FL supporter
I would prefer him to run in the Gold Cup but not bothered really, doubt he wins either race as nearly every winner of a Grade 1 race had won a race in the same season |
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What are you talking about Bally when you state that Mouse doesn't have a say ? he is the trainer, so of course hhe will have a voice. Mouse knows the horse better than anyone, including Davvy Russell, who may also be heard. Once Mouse has spoken to the owner, the onus will then be on the owner to take the opinions on board and make a decision. Myself and a few others agree with the trainer, so i don't know what you mean by an army of fans. We simply want it to take the route that the person who knows the horse best wants to take. Let's just hope the horse gets there, and if he does then i won't grudge anyone being right if he goes for the other race.
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Most of these posters are on at 10/1 or better for the Ryanair so they have to convince themselves he's a "good thing". It's all pocket talking.
This is not called "taking a view" it's just being ridiculous because you backed it at a decent price i.e. pocket talking. What a complete load of bollox. For me I did take a view that FL would be aimed at Ryanair, and indeed should do. On that basis I placed a bet at 12s without any NRFB or NRNB. If he does run then 12s I thinkmost would agree is a decent price? If he doesn't run then I've lost my money. If he does run and doesn't win, I've also done my money. I have formed an opinion and placed a bet accordingly but any talk afterwards of the horse's relative merits is apparently 'pocket talk'? - what a fecking idiot. I have far more respect for someone who comes on a forum and explains his rationale when they have placed a bet accordingly. Its not pocket talk at all |
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I meant "the" say...anyway...this is getting a bit boring now. Yes, got him at 10-1 for Ryanair. Yes, I think he will turn up there and yes, if he does, he has a hell of a chance of winning.
He's not even in my top 5 of potential wins yet I seem to spend half my time on this thread  Sir Des Champs 7-1 Simonsig 10-3 Sprinter Sacre Evens The New One 16-1 Boston Bob 8-1 of more interest to me. So I say **** it...cant be arsed with the debate anymore about this bloody horse. Good luck to all and have a nice Festival Laters  |
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The New One 16-1 i think we,ll both have a good wednesday bally
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Fair enough Decalec. I did have tongue firmly in cheek when I wrote that but it probably didn't come across :-). I'm currently dancing a jig as I've had my absolute lot on for the Dingle Derby at 66s.
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NO BAW
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Ballydoyle
01 Mar 13 13:39 Joined: 23 Feb 02 | Topic/replies: 916 | Blogger: Ballydoyle's blog Maelduin....you're puffin me out man.....there's half a mile between them - completely different races against completely different opposition. The way FL went in the RSA and the Lexus up to around 2m 6f makes me think that he's a good 10-1 shot for the Ryanair. The way he got passed by Bob in the RSA, again in the Hennessey, and walked home in the Lexus personally tells me all I need to know about his Gold Cup chance. Just my opinion can you honestly tell me that FL is a better stayer than SDC, Long Run, SC, Bobs? And who would be staying on better up the hill in a gruelling Ryanair in your opinion? Do you think 10-1 is a bad bet? There is no obseession on my part if he turns up in the Ryanair. I've got 10-1 a coupla times but it's covered by NRFB. If he turns up in Gold Cup he will get place layed by me and if he wins or gets placed so be it. What does that mean? A couple of times? NRFB was with V C upto a max of £100. Is that correct or not? It sounds like your are trying to say you won't lose any money if he does not run, face saving. Yet their are other posters on here who have backed him on BF at bigger prices. They are the ones who took a view. |
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It's amazing what you can get a girlfriend or a mate to do if they also have a VC account...not hard is it ffs???
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No, it's not hard to do at all.
I do find it laughable though that you have such confidence in the horse winning Ryaniar but are very keen to stress it's NRFB. Sounds like you want it both ways. Why did you not take any big prices on Betfair? As an ante-post punter, and like others on here, we accept the risks. If FL does not run in the GC then we'll lose money and accept it. You won't see any of us trying to save face. Anywhoo, we'll find out where he goes in just a few days. If I lose my cash so be it. |
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Hope so Alleged...I've not got much on for the Tuesday bar Simonsig 10/3 and 11/4 with Overturn ew 5/1 but I think the latter might hit the deck, Grandouet at 7/1 but not after this prep...Wednesday will hopefully be pay day..I've had a bit on Rule The World at 12/1 ew also along with The New One ew 16/1...Sprinter should win and Boston Bob/Lord Windermere are my RSA players. Then of course we have the Ryanair lol
Main bet of entire festival is Sir Des Champs. All over him at 7s and 5s as well as Bayern Munich Champs League at 8s 7s 6s 9/2. If they both do the damage that would do me. Reve De Sivola and At Fishers Cross/Coneygree would be welcomed also. Good luck to you |
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Bryan J COOPER confirmed he's booked to ride CHINA ROCK hth
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Not had a bet on FL for either race but he'd be my Ryanair bet if turning up and for what I can see, and admit its trends based, he should go for the shorter race
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Irish fav a terrible record in both the Ryan Air and the previous Cathcart. One winner since 1973. Just saying, something to think about
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surely cue card will be fav???
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sorry typo, couldn't edit
should read "Irish HAVE a terrible record..." |