"To be honest I dont get the anti Darlan posts on here.  Some valid points sround whether it is value at current prices but is definately one of the 4-5 horses likely to fight out the finish.

Watch last years Supreme and the Betfair hurdle and then watch the Xmas hurdle.  Henderson thinks it has matured and strengthened and it certaintly found a gear to dispatch the Xmas hurdle field. It turned into a sprint and seeing it going on at the finish in the supreme I wouldnt have thought that would play to its strengths.

Jumping can be an issue and I would think thant McCoy would ride it closer to the pace than inn last years supreme. I for one would be greatly surprise to see McCoy opt for Bino over Darlan. Sure the Xmas hurdle stat is not a positive but alone that wouldnt put me off."

I agree with everything you say, Dado Bear

Another one who doesn't understand what a paradox is. What has happened to our education system?

too clever by half - at least you think so!! if you are implying that the lemmings rushed over the cliff for harchibald then use of past tense would have been more suitable i.e. isn't his course - wasn't his course.  as for HF, winning the champion and coming 3rd - i don't think it matters which course and clearly contradicts your 'never will be' or is that a paradox in another dimension?

I'm not a huge fan of OR but as I don't have access to Timeform data, here goes:-

HF has been rated at 173 for each of it's past SIX runs, at Leopardstown, Punchestown and Cheltenham (when 3rd in CH) - three markedly different courses, so perhaps it should run at cartmel or fakenham to see if they are more suitable than these G1 courses!

Gordon

I presume that was a joke.

As I said I'm not a huge fan of OR but it's what we have - and he'll get a higher rating this year after beating all the hype horses - zarkandar, grandouet, darlan etc

Beating Thousand Stars and Binocular is "egg and spoon". Beating Raya Star and Dodging Bullets points to being a Champion Hurdle winner. Discuss.

It was the manner of  Darlans demolition that was impressive. As I have said before it has to improve to win but it has bundles of potential, is Hurricane Fly likely to post a higher rating that that which it has already posted? Previous posters say it doesn't need to and a similar level will be good enough.

Cutting the fly to 9 to 4, in places, after winning a race on the bridle that it had to win on the bridle told us nothing new at all. Backers of Darlan are antipating further improvement based on the last performance and turn of speed it showed, allied with the apparent confidence if he Henderson camp.

For me excuses coming out now for last years Champ when the Fly lost its crown don't cut it,  it has been and is still a great horse winning a phenomenal amount of grade 1s. However it wasn't good enough last year and it is far too short in the betting, represents no value and as such is making the market from a betting perspective,

For me with the dangers in the race, potential improverers, horses with little to find in the no, reigning champion,  question marks against the jolly I would struggle to find a weaker fav at this stage at chelt.

We will find out more where Darlan truely lies if it meets RoR at Doncaster on Monday and we can get some collaborative form, albeit neither will be 100% wound up.

Can chemical Nicky be trusted with Darlan mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm not sure weve sen it all before with Bino havent we not

Raya Star is rated 155 now and Darlan beat it with consumate ease.  Raya Star was rated 132 at the time of its race v RoR at Newbury during Nov 11.

Hurricane Fly was rated 167 prior to his Champion win.  Darlan is rated 166 at the moment after 7 starts over hurdles, 5 wins a second and a fell when travelling very well at the 2nd last in the Betfair Hurdle.

Discuss.

To illustrate the point, in his next race Raya star won the Ladbroke off 134, clearly still not the ceiling oof his ability and was then 3rd to Zarkandar in the Betfair from a mark somewhere mid/high 140s from memory plus he came out and won a handicap at Ascot first time up this year from a similarly high mark. I'm not sure he likes Cheltenham that much but would be a decent place chance on ORs. If you think Darlan is going to go up by similar amounts then he's a 190 rated hurdler in which case you should be remortgaging your house to back him.

Im not sayin hurricane fly is goin to win the champ hrdle as it looks a to be a strong renewal but i think he has an outstanding chance ,i think last year he was under par as he ran flat not only at chelt but also when struggling to collar zaidpour at punchestown.So i dont buy he was beaten on ability or not havin the race run to suit he was just not right. This year everthing seems to have gone to plan even on his reappearence im pretty sure he wud have had the measure of go native had he not fallen plus an uninterupted prep all boads well. IMO he is the one with the least negatives against him ,so the likely winner.

should have said post below in response to dado bear

3 x 4yos have won Christmas Hurdle since 1969 and 1 (Kribensis) won the Champion, so still not a great record is it?

Gordon I think we will have to disagree on both Jezki and Hurricane Fly.  Im on Jezki at 8s and 7s and personally am happy with my play on that horse.  Certainly a dual grade 1 winner bound to improve on better ground and with a bullish Harrington does not sound like a week jolly to my Scottish ears.Comments a bit OTT and like all on here I am entitled to a view same as you.

Do you hionestly believe you saw anything on Sunday you didnt expect ? A 6 to 1 on shot have a hack canter against a pensioner, a horse that hasnt won first time out in 4 years who hates heavy going and who got a ride that the stewards enquired into.  Oh I forgot the hors who needs 3 miles in grade 1 company.  All in a very telling trial race against proven group 1 performers at 2 mile.  Yes the same can be said of the 5 furlong sprint in the xmas hurdle but it is an improving horse.

Re making my mind up re Hurricane Fly I could not be blunter if I tried.  IT IS SHOCKING VALUE AND I COULD NOT BET IT AT TOP OF HEAD HEAD IF U ARRIVED AT MY HOUSE WITH A FREE BET. When was the last champion hurdle winner to regain its crown ? Comedy of Errors eh and that was when ?

Re the Xmas hurdle.
QUOTE = Christmas Hurdle winners don't have good record in CH.
The last time I looked Kribensis was the last winner of the Xmas hurdle to land the champion hurdle.  That makes it around 23 years.  A great stat to follow and one to look out for and I am starting the car to get a price for the Xmas hurdle winner.  Wait no Ive already bet it.

Re Henderson.
"I think we learned that Darlan is a lot better than we dared to hope," said Henderson. http://www.skysports.com/story/0,19528,12426_8363547,00.html
"We've always thought he had a lot of ability," Henderson said. "You wouldn't think he'd be suited by a sprint but he's beaten them fair and square." http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/dec/26/long-run-second-king-george

There was also a TV interview where he stated it had matured and strengthened over the winter and they were very happy with him.  Before the Xmas hurdle.

Re my excuses all im saying is the race is a trial on Monday and trials are exactly that.  The main aim is another day not an excuse a fact.

That said we are all entitled to an opinion and you dont agree with me but thats what the game is all about.  Good luck with you bets but not in the champion obviously :)

Bookies dream race again.All the hype.Unless your on at double figures,no point.As competitive a ch.hurdle in a long time.5/6 have a chance.Look somwhere else.Suppose,good to argue though!!!

Dado - good response to my Scottish ears!

jezki - my lay of the meeting, and happily won't have to lay as much as 7s or 8s - yes the irish win their share of the novices (particularly the supreme) but rarely with their main fancy and harrington (jezki apart perhaps) is having a shocking season and i don't fancy robbie power as a jockey one bit - still good luck!

hurricane fly vs darlan - what's your price on a match bet? 

i think you're missing my point on the 'trial' - you're clearly prepared to forgive if darlan gets beat on monday, whereas HF has already won the Irish Champion (hardly a prep race!) and has been beaten once in three years so has nothing to prove to me.  As for stats on regaining CH - much less significant IMO than the Christmas Hurdle stat.  Kempton is about as far a different track to Cheltenham as you can get and I doubt even you (as a Darlan fan think finishing behind cinders and ashes is CH form?) whereas the best hurdlers of past 30 years have been multiple winners of the CH (e.g. See you then, istabraq) I think HF would also be going for hat trick if hadn't had an off day last march...

all about opinions and look forward to your match bet prices - perhaps we can meet at musselburgh or kelso (morebattle day) to place our wager

Dado - seems a bit short to me - best odds on oddschecker are HF 11/4, Darlan 9/2 so more like 8/11 v  11/8 but if Jimnast is reading I'm sure he can give better guidance..

I'll probably head to the ayr meeting beforehand - more likely friday 8th than saturday 9th - i usually have a few in rabbie burns before heading to the track.  only been to festival once since it went to 4 days - kind of spoiled it for me, i absolutely loved the intensity of the three days and was completely shagged out physically/mentally/emotionally at the end of it but the fourth day just made it seem like a slog.  will complete my tour of all the courses this year (yarmouth/aintree/cartmel to go) and then will think of tue/wed at festival next year.  looking forward to musselburgh on sunday and kelso on valentines day (hopefully no massacre!)

Graeme agree re the 4 days diluted quality, cross country!, conditional handicaps, novice handicaps? Utter dross but Gillespie wanted his shilling? Re the price im on Darlan single and for a ton double with your lay jezki.  Friendly duece is there if you want or happy to meet in rabies for a half and a half bud.  Only a pony of a difference or a round in rabbies re the bet.

Won't post a phone no on here but email is mullen_k@sky.com

And if you knew anything about form, Barnesy,you'll realise that not all horses progress. I repeat that that form has proven to be outstanding and my reading of it remains the same. Once you realise that some horses are way better than their ORsyou''ll be able to stop backing favourites and make some money from this game.