Why are so many raving about Hurricane Fly?

I do think he is better on heavy/soft, not a horse I would confidently oppose but I'm still wary about last performance having backed him.

Eeternaloptimist,On what basis is he not suited by Cheltenham?
From what i can gather,He's raced there twice,Winning once,Losing once.Now it doesn't take Einstein to work out he's a 50% strike rate there.
i think a bit more evidence is needed if your gonna be so fervent in your assessment of the horse,So basically your talking through your arsé,

That's more like it.

Although you are rather putting the cart before the horse telling me I'm talking out of my arse after first requesting that I supply you with further evidence.

Well for starters if you are going down the percentages route then a 50% strike rate is indeed a good return for a 2 mile hurdler but there are two points to make about that. The first is that the sample isn't statistically big enough and the second is that his percentage from a much higher sample is much better than 50% at other courses.

Still like I say that isn't especially relevant and neither is the fact that he has previously won at Cheltenham. Let me use a little logic to explain my position. Assume horse x runs and wins 20 races with all variables pretty much the same ie trip, ground, weight, jockey etc and wins them all. 10 of those races were run at track Y and 10 at track Z. At track Y he won each race by 10 lengths pulling a proverbial cart. At track Z he won each race by a neck hard driven. It would be logical to conclude that he showed better form at course Y than course Z. Ergo despite his wins course Z didn't suit him but his class was able to overcome his disadvantage.

So onto Hurricane Fly. If we go through the majority of his races in Ireland he tends to come up against the same opposition. Thousand Stars is a prime example. Looking at his races and indeed the comments following those races suggest that his victories were usually done with such a degree of ease that he could have won by significantly further had he been ridden out or had the opposition been better on the day.

His best Cheltenham race was his first where he edged out Peddlers Cross. Thousand Stars was beaten a similar distance to that which he usually is in Ireland but Hurricane was all out to do so. Still he won. However, the time of the race suggested that there was a fair amount of juice in the ground. Last year he wasn't so lucky and not only was he soundly beaten but had something come at Rock On Ruby in the last couple of furlongs there is every reason to think he could have found a bit more. Ergo Hurricane was flattered to get with 6 lengths of him.

Why should it be any different when Hurricane is now 9 and this will almost certainly be a better field?

Is that enough for you or am I still talking out of my arse?

But, if the track wasn't his bag then despite the quality of the opopsition you would still be able to see the uncomfortableness (is that a word!!) in the way he jumps and travels because the track is putting up the resistance to him regardless of the other horses, in his CH win he travelled and jumped like a dream.

He'll be ridden right up there and Ruby will make use of the horse's stamina aswell as pace this year. He'll kill off any challenge from 2 out and have them all at. He'll ping the last and win going away. Ruby thought he was in Ireland last year, this year he'll run the race to win it nice and early, he won't be giving any of them a chance in front.

let themselves down on good even

Brooksie being Marty.

harry

I think it's both. The course can really exacerbate the problem. In my view a flat track doesn't place nearly as much stress on joints as an undulating one. I remember reading in relation to athletes that running down a steep hill on a road can place the equivalent of up to 10 times your weight on your various joints in a leg. I'd imagine it is something similar with a horse.

Which in my view partly explains why he accounted for the likes of Thousand Stars, Binocular and Menorah with comparative ease on good ground at Punchestown after he scrambled home at Cheltenham on good ground.

People also forget the relative differences between the new and old courses at Cheltenham which is why you see so many big horses travel well on the new course and not act on the sharper more undulating old course.

My guess is that Binocular being a hold up horse didn't particularly like the new tactics. The one I go through really is Thousand Stars. The ones who get further can often seem to run nearer to their shorter distance form at closer intervals. I've lost count of the times and money I lost when a younger man on horses just outstayed at Cheltenham who then went to the more speed orientated course at Aintree only to get done again because their efforts at Cheltenham had left a considerable mark.

Similar to long distance athletes really. I was pretty quick when I was younger and could beat my older brother over 400 metres. When we did a set he'd be up a minute later and running to a similar time over the rest of the set while I'd be puking my guts up after two or three.

No offence Steeple Chasing but you said KAuto Star wasn't a Cheltenham horse after he lost his gold cup crown to Denman. He won a Gold Cup and placed in another. He of course is a Cheltenham horse.

Now you have the same pop at Fly, he won at Cheltenham and came 3rd. What about Darlan or Zarkandar or all the horses who've lost at Cheltenham too.

It's such daft nonsense.

Fly has had a clear run so far this season, if he gets to cheltenham on the back of another good performance at Leopardstown then he'll have a great chance. If he loses he'll be beaten by a bettter horse as his prep has been perfect unlike last year.

Fly has won at 5 different tracks on all types of ground from 2m to 2m4f of all the horses he is clearly the most adaptable.

Zarkandar, Rock on Ruby, Grandouet, Binocular, Darlan and Fly have all won and lost at the track. But I'm not gonna say one or another doesn't like the track. I think it's daft to say that about horses who have won there after all and all bar Darlan won competitive races.

While only the three champion hurdlers have won on the Old Course over c&d

Which totally overlooks my previous point because it is inconvenient to your argument. Just because a horse has enough class to win at a course despite it not being ideally suited doesn't mean that course presents its optimimum type of course. My view is that like Kauto, Hurricane's class got him home the first time in the champion hurdle. He can win at 20 different courses on the bridle but Cheltenham is an almost unique test and in national hunt terms presents the equivalent of an Epsom type test.

It also doesn't mean that just because he didn't win the champion hurdle on the bridle all the way up the run-in that the course didn't suit him...it just means that for the first time he was running in the champion hurdle and he had to work a bit more for it.

I've been following this thread with interest.

The leading CH contenders, their Cheltenham record is:

Hurricane Fly: 1 from 2; 50%
Darlan: 1 from 2; 50%
Zarkandar: 2 from 3; 66%
Grandouet: 1 from 4; 25%
Rock on Ruby: 2 from 5; 40%
Countrywide Flame: 1 from 1; 100%
Binocular: 1 from 4; 25%

That doesn't scream to me that Hurricane Fly doesn't act around the course, when the majority of his rivals have been been beaten as well (as CV has pointed out).  Added to the fact he has only raced in the Blue Riband event, and not easier novice or trials races, then his record stands up well.

Based on his thumping of Go Native as a novice (who went on to win a Supreme), most believe that the Fly would have won the Supreme that year, as he'd have the beating of Medermit and Go Native over 2m (that would be 2 out of 3).

Beating the same horses over and over is not to be sniffed at when you are beating decent opposition.  The likes of Thousand Stars and Solwhit are no mugs in my book, and they shouldn't be in yours (without Oscar Whisky, Thousand Stars would be a dual Aintree Hurdle winner) and Solwhit was just unlucky that he was injured during his only CH run.

When you talk about people "raving" about the Fly, I think a lot of people, and myself included, are just delighted to see one of the greats back to his best (and he is one of the greats in my book).  After the blip of last year, it is great to see him with a trouble free prep, travelling powerfully and improving with each run; this is a mirror of his CH victory of a couple of years ago.

Added to the fact that he is still a fantastic price, for someone of his ability.  If he stays fit, he and Zark are rock solid imo.

This isn't a dig at you at all.  Good to read alternative views, but in this case I'd have to side with the others.

Its pretty hard to knock a horse with a race record that HF has,so i wont bother trying.
I remember some good old debates with CV about HF and Bino,and i recall saying about HF beating Solwhit over and over again in Ireland as a reason for thinking he may not be as good at Cheltenham.
Well their was nowt wrong with his performance when winning the CH,although i still would have liked to see Bino in  the race so as to compare them at their best in a CH.
Anyway,HF has a chance of winning the race again,no doubt in my mind hes a major player,and it wont be cos of the course he wont win imo.

The likes of Thousand Stars and Solwhit are no mugs in my book, and they shouldn't be in yours

Sorry, just read that back and shouldn't have put "and shouldn't be in yours" because that sounds really ar$ey and like I'm telling you what to think...not my intention.

There is no way on earth HF ran to his best in last seasons CH,Just cant have that at all,You ask Ruby who's the better horse Hurricane Fly or Rock on Ruby,

He'd most likely laugh at you for asking such a stupid question,He should know,He's ridden both,Yet Rock on Ruby beat him easily,

Hurricane Fly was struggling over 2 Furlongs out that day,i cant recall him struggle like that in a race before,He didn't run up to his capabilities in last years renewal for whatever reason,of that i can guarantee you,

Don't really get eternals agenda here,On one hand he's telling us HF isn't that great,And on the other he's telling us his Class is what won him his 1 and only CH to date,Very Bizarre.

it's much like Chelsea winning the Champions League last year,Every man and his dog knows Chelsea aren't the best team in Europe,But these things happen occasionally and it's hard to understand why,We all know Barca are streets ahead of a team like Chelsea,in the same way we know HF is a far superior horse to ROR,But for whatever reason results don't always determine that.

Just to be clear I'm saying he is great and almost certainly the best since Istabraq and that he is very very good at Cheltenham but not quite as good there as on a flat track which was why I asked the original question.

Rock On Ruby actually put up a speed figure in last years champion hurdle superior to any Hurricane Fly has put up in his career. In fact the highest Hurricane Fly has achieved was in last years Champion Hurdle the rest fall some way below including his win in the race. As far as consistency, achievements etc we can all agree Hurricane Fly at the moment is a superior horse and in winter conditions you would imagine he could beat ROR with a bit in hand. However on better ground at Cheltenham it's certainly not that simple.
I don't think an undulating stiff track on decent ground (aka Cheltenham in March) in a double figure field is Hurricane Fly's cup of tea. The fact that he won a Champion Hurdle at his peak shows what the best horses can do and that is win top class races despite conditions being against them. He has won numerous G1's without turning a hair in his career yet both times at Cheltenham it has looked a real test for him not something we're used to seeing. Lets face the facts here if the race was being run at Punchestown next week he'd be a clear fav. The other reason I am against the Fly is most certainly his age. 9yo's have a pretty poor record in the race. Only one I know of is Rooster Booster and when you add the fact Hurricane Fly is a flat bred into the mix signs are not that great.